Wednesday, September 30, 2009

View From Bennett Avenue


With Michigan winning its first four games of the season, more than one college football analyst has made the comment that Michigan’s success is “good for college football.” The idea is that when a Michigan, Notre Dame or Southern California, just to name three of the long-time powers of the sport, does well, the sport garners more attention and the regular sports fan takes more notice. People even voiced those sentiments about Miami of all teams after they won their first two games as younger audiences, instructed by ESPN that sports began in 1979, view the Canes as a traditional power.

Certainly the ratings and media attention attracted by recent clashes of titans, like USC-Texas in the 2005 BCS Title game or Ohio State-Michigan less than a year later, Oklahoma-Texas over the past few seasons or any of a number of Florida games in recent memory offer evidence to that fact. But is it true that the sport suffers when these traditional powers stop hogging the limelight?

As some evidence to the contrary, let’s take a look at the 1970s. That was the decade, one could argue, that professional football pulled away from the college variety to become not only the preeminent form of football in the country, but the nation’s most popular sport of any kind. Yet college football was ruled by Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, Nebraska and USC. They dominated the polls, media coverage and won-loss columns. In the NFL, meanwhile, traditional powers the New York Giants and Chicago Bears generally struggled throughout the decade, as too the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Relatively new teams like Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders and Minnesota Vikings did very well and the one traditional NFL team to win multiple championships, the Pittsburgh Steelers, were from a smaller city and were previously known more for finding different ways to lose every week. While the NFL set ratings victories with a fresh group of winners, the college game slipped a bit in popularity with the old standard bearers leading the way.

Is this proof that it does not really matter how good Michigan does this year? No. It is just something to think about. And if we are happy that the Wolverines are “back” then let’s not be correspondingly upset about the undefeated seasons being turned in by Cincinnati or Kansas. College football is wonderful because there are great players, stories, events and traditions throughout the sport’s spectrum of teams and divisions. Sure we should be excited about November’s Ohio State-Michigan game, but let’s not forget Harvard-Yale.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Dissecting the Conferences



Big East
South Florida made a big statement Saturday in a game that meant a great deal to the program. The D dominated Florida State throughout and QB B.J. Daniels was dynamic rushing and passing. It was quite the starting debut for Daniels. The key now for coach Jim Leavitt is to keep his team focused on Syracuse this Saturday when the following game is Cincinnati on 10/15. We have witnessed fast starts by the Bulls before. Pittsburgh lost for the first time this season in a surprising shootout with North Carolina State. QB Russell Wilson tore apart the Panthers D for 322y passing with 4 TDs while adding 91y rushing.

ACC
Just like last season, once the ACC begins to make sense the action on the field turns things topsy-turvy. Not one team is unbeaten overall and most of the contenders have had performances (Miami to Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech to Alabama, North Carolina to Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech to Miami, BC to Clemson etc.) where they did not look very good. It is anyone’s guess who will play in the ACC title game.

SEC
Is Florida vulnerable? After the ugly game versus Tennessee and then concussion suffered by QB Tim Tebow in the rout of Kentucky, the Gators have had to overcome some obstacles. The good news for them is that no one in the East looks to be within seven points of them and LSU—expected to be the toughest team on the Florida schedule—prevailed by a whisker against Mississippi State (why use Dixon as a decoy on 3rd and 4th down from the half foot line?) and needs to improve a lot in two weeks. Alabama is playing as well as anyone in the conference at the moment, but finally has true road games coming up in clashes with Kentucky and Mississippi. The Rebels cannot look ahead to that game or they will lose to Vandy for the second straight year.

Big Ten
The conference currently has three 4-0 teams and not one them with the word “State” in their title as Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin stand alone after a wild weekend. Ohio State is improving by the week and remains the favorite, while both Illinois and Michigan State are looking more like second division rank and file as opposed to the title challengers they hoped to be when September began. There should be a lot of movement at the top after this weekend, although Iowa is safe for this week with Arkansas State coming to town. On their schedule the following week? Michigan.

Big 12
The conference race does not truly get into gear until next week as the sole game between Big 12 teams takes place in Kansas City where Iowa State and Kansas State do battle. Oklahoma travels to Miami to keep their national title hopes alive. A loss and the focus from now on will be the Big 12 title. Texas A&M meets Arkansas in Arlington to renew an old SWC battle. The two old rivals met every year from 1934 to 1991, but not since then. Tune in Friday for a Remember When look back on a past memorable game between the Hogs and Aggies. Meanwhile the dynamic Robert Griffin had his season end with a knee injury suffered in a game against Northwestern State. Baylor was not going to win the Big 12 South, but they would have made some noise in the conference and were targeting a post-season appearance for the first time since 1994. All that may be gone with the loss of Griffin, one of the most valuable players in football. Former starting QB Blake Szymanski is banged up as well, but needs to heal up soon to rally the Bears.

Pac 10
Oregon? The Ducks returned from near death in a big way by pouncing on the Bears this past weekend. They cannot maintain that level of defensive excitement over the course of the year, but do not have to this weekend against Washington State. Meanwhile, the upcoming clash between Cal and USC looked like the battle for conference bragging rights a few weeks ago. Now the loser is staring at two losses in conference. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Stanford, who is 2-0 in conference for the first time since 2001. They hope to end a five-game series losing streak versus UCLA this weekend.

The Rest
Notre Dame puts its 7-0 all-time record versus Washington to the test this weekend. Keeping QB Jimmy Clausen protected and in the game is paramount. TCU must be scratching its collective head over their ranking compared to Boise State, a team they beat in the Poinsettia Bowl last season. TCU is 3-0 with two wins on the road versus ACC schools. Boise has the win over Oregon, which garnered it much more press than anything the Horned Frogs have done. And polls are sadly based on perception more than reality. There is an assumption that if TCU wins out including games at home versus Utah and on the road against Air Force (no one is mentioning the Falcons who beat the Horned Frogs at home two years ago) and BYU they will get the BCS game spot. Still, they would rather be a lot closer in the voting.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

View From Bennett Avenue


Indiana was robbed on that call. The Hoosiers already had to fight any doubts they had about winning based on decades of failure against the Wolverines and when it seemed like they could overcome the odds, the refs stepped in. And the blown call, Michigan fans, did not make things “even” for calls that went against Michigan earlier in the game as this one basically ended matters. Sure, Indiana still had to move the ball into scoring position, but they had done so all game. By allowing 467y to IU, Michigan proved that they are not quite ready for re-elevation to the ranks of college football powers. That the Mississippi State Bulldogs failed to end a nine-game losing streak to LSU moments later by a matter of inches made it worse for fans of the true upset.

Despite the spin about yesterday being a day that shook up the rankings, the actual stunners were all of the garden variety. That Virginia Tech and Oregon won at home was no real surprise, although of course the ease of their respective victories was unexpected. And even though Iowa was a big dog on the road, their team’s success in the series against Penn State buoyed well for their chances. South Florida over Florida State on the road and with a back-up QB? A surprise, sure, but the Seminoles are too inconsistent to expect anything but upset wins followed by upset losses. The main reason that the rankings were shook up was that the rankings were incorrect. And the comparison so far is not to 2007, in which everyone continually was upset allowing a two-loss Louisiana State team to win the national title, but to 1983 when the top two teams in the country, Nebraska and Texas, were ranked 1-2 for most of the year while numbers 3 to 20 were continually jumbled. As long as Florida and Texas—or more accurately Florida, Texas and Alabama—remain unbeaten, the craziness of 2007 will remain unique. Of course both Nebraska and Texas lost their bowl games in 1983, which could not happen this year if they face off in the BCS title game. Not that I want to get ahead of myself.

One last note is to congratulate Oregon for getting off the mat from their week one loss to Boise State to become favorites, or at least co-favorites, for the Pac 10 crown. If they had lost to Purdue week two, their season may have spiraled out of control. Back-to-back nice wins however have the Ducks feeling good. And I do not expect coach Chip Kelly to have to offer any more refunds.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Remember When


Illinois’s hopes for the season may rest with a good performance this Saturday versus Ohio State as a loss will send them into their game next week against Penn State with a 1-2 record. The Illini can fall back on solid play against the Buckeyes the past three years, including an upset win in Columbus two seasons ago. With the Illini struggling out the gate, Remember When will look back on a glorious day in the history of the rivalry when Illinois and Ohio State knocked heads for an exciting game.


1963 was a memorable season for Illinois. After combining for a 2-16 record for the previous two seasons, the youthful boys from Champaign unleashed two stars on the rest of the Big 10: bruising FB Jim Grabowski and C-LB Dick Butkus, for whom the word bruising does not do justice. They entered the Ohio State game with a surprising 2-0 record after shutting out a QB Craig Morton-led Cal team 10-0 in their opener and then stunning in-state rival and no. 4-ranked Northwestern in their conference tip-off, 10-9. Ohio State entered the 1963 season hungry for another Big 10 title after slipping to a third place tie in ’62. The Buckeyes had shut out both Texas A&M and Indiana to move up to no. 8 in the AP poll. The game promised to be a good one and in delivered as our recap from The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia makes clear:

OHIO STATE 20 Illinois 20: Record crowd at Ohio Stadium saw 52nd renewal of series provide 4th Q heroics by both Ohio State (2-0-1) and Illinois (2-0-1) and questionable conv decision by Illini coach Pete Elliott. Illinois scored 1st on HB Sam Price’s plunge and led 7-3 at the H. Concentrating on power ground attack (209y) that was keyed by FBs Matt Snell and Willard Sander, Buckeyes built 17-7 lead. Illini QB Mike Taliaferro (10-23/148y, TD, 2 INTs) passed 2y on 4th down TD to E Eddie Russell that trimmed deficit to 17-13, but instead of kicking conv, Taliaferro was sent on pass-run option rollout that was stopped. With Illini trailing by 4 pts, Taliaferro launched 56y pass to Price, who, although overhauled at the Ohio 3YL, still set up HB Jim Warren’s 4y TD run. This time, Elliott brought about 20-17 lead for Tribe by ordering x-pt kick to follow TD. But, K Dick vanRaaphorst booted to-date Big Ten record 49y FG to tie with 1:53 to go, and vanRaaphorst had another chance on a 56y FG try, which he missed on game’s next to last play.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Weekly Picks


Paul’s Picks for Sept. 26, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Last week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 22, one “push” (tie)
Season ATS: Favorites covered 59, failed to cover 70

Last week’s picks: 3-1
Season Picks: 7-7

King of the Road

Going the road route to get over .500. And being that I am a “man of means by no means” I look forward to a successful week of predictions as a way to earn myself some self satisfaction.

Of course how can anyone predict college football games without knowing which players are riddled with the flu and which are not? I will give it my best effort.

Friday (9:00 pm EDT): Missouri (-7) over NEVADA
This is another one of the payback versus pushover games as Nevada certainly wants to avenge their brutal 69-17 whipping at the hands of Missouri last season. But the question remains, can they? The answer seems to be no as every time the Wolf Pack step up in competition—Notre Dame earlier this year and both Missouri and Texas Tech last year—they get manhandled. Meanwhile, the Tigers have owned the month of September in recent years and I see no reason that cannot continue. Pick: Missouri -7.

Saturday (Noon EDT): North Carolina at GEORGIA TECH (-2.5)
Inconsistent offensive line play is the Achilles’ heel of an option attack and what makes matters worse for the Yellow Jackets is that they have had to tangle with top defensive front sevens from first Clemson and then Miami and now North Carolina. The Tar Heels will dominate with their D-line and get enough throws from T.J. Yates to remain unbeaten.
Pick: North Carolina +2.5

Saturday (8:00 pm EDT): Iowa at PENN STATE (-9.5)
Penn State does not look like a national title contender and no matter how much people want to assume that they will beat Iowa by double figures to avenge last year’s defeat, the stark reality is that they are over-rated and the Hawkeyes, winners of seven straight games since last season’s upset of Penn State, are under-rated. That is a bad combination for the home team and a good combination for anyone picking games. Pick: Iowa +9.5

Saturday (9:15 pm EDT): Texas Tech at HOUSTON (-1.5)
Okay, Houston it’s show time. You have had two weeks to savor your upset of Oklahoma State. Can you beat another Big 12 team? Whether they can or not, balls will be flying in this game as Cougars QB Case Keenum and Tech QB Taylor Potts go head-to-head. The pick here is with Texas Tech as coach Mike Leach looks to improve on a 14-1 record versus instate non-conference teams. Pick: Texas Tech +1.5.

View From Bennett Avenue


Poll Voting


While I could have an entire blog full of my rants against ESPN, I do not want this particular blog to get ugly. I do want to make a comment based on something my good friend (no, we have not met) Brent Musburger said regarding poll voting. In discussing with Kirk Herbstreit the teams that belong in the nation's Top Five, Musburger strongly advocated for the presence of Miami in the nation's top five based on how they have looked this season. Musburger feels strongly that the play on the field should be the only basis for poll voting and that one's reputation or prior seasons' results should not come into play.


Brent did get it half right. Past reputation does factor too much into the discussion as too a perceived notion that certain schools have more talent than others. We here at Sunday Morning Quarterbacks have long argued against the presence of preseason polls because your position before the season begins may have a determination toward your final ranking. Cincinnati, for example, was unranked in the preseason polls and can thusly work their way up the polls with continued good play. But they will never pass an undefeated Florida or an undefeated Texas because those squads are presumed to be better and were placed well above the Bearcats from the beginning of the season. Miami is in a similar position and has to hope that they not only beat Oklahoma but that Oklahoma beats Texas. Florida just has to win out and need not worry what their opponents do as enough SEC teams will populate the polls to give the perception that the Gators have a tough schedule.


But where Brent has it wrong is the notion that you can throw everything out the window but the results on the field. If that were the case then East Carolina should have been no. 1 a year ago after opening the season with wins against Virginia Tech and West Virginia (they only climbed to no. 17). After winning a third game, the Pirates then dropped three straight. You must factor in your best guess--and that is what we are talking about--as too where the team will finish at the end of the season. Florida is no. 1 at the moment despite not having an impressive victory. They should be no. 1 because on the field they look like a good team and they are still expected to be good all season in a great conference.


Miami, ridiculously 13th in the current USA Today Coaches' Poll, just has to wait their turn. It is a long season.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

SEC State of Mind

Is there anyone else growing weary of the attention placed on the mouths of Lane Kiffin and Urban Meyer? Sportswriters drool over every word these two spout as if these two idiots can solve world problems. I did not expect much from Kiffin, who has to use his mouth to cover up his deficiencies as a coach, but Meyer? He has gotten into spats with Pete Carroll, Ron Zook, Steve Spurrier, Mark Richt, half of Notre Dame’s fan base and, of course, Kiffin, among others. How mad would he be without two national titles in four years? Lighten up and enjoy yourself for crying out loud!

What interests me more about this upcoming slate of games for SEC teams are questions like: Can anyone on Arkansas cover Julio Jones? (No.) Can South Carolina hang with a Mississippi squad hit by the flu bug? (Probably not.) With Auburn playing well, is the SEC West now a four team race? (At least until the Hogs play three SEC road games in October.) Can Georgia give Florida competition in the East? (No.) Can all of LSU’s young talent on offense gel in time for key October games against Georgia, Florida and Auburn? (Hopefully.) Can Steve Spurrier get to .500 in SEC play as coach of the Gamecocks? (At three games under, it is not looking good.)

Are we so used to the quality play in the conference that we need off-the-field nonsense to keep our interest? Let’s watch some football, beginning tomorrow night in Columbia. After all, what is the over/under on the number of times ESPN talks about Mississippi’s need for revenge for last season’s 31-24 South Carolina victory?

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

ACC Overview


While many teams open conference play this Saturday, the Miami Hurricanes play their third key ACC game of the young season when traveling to Blacksburg, Virginia for their annual showdown with Virginia Tech. The undefeated Canes are certainly the lead story of the ACC so far this season as the swagger has returned to “The U” thanks to the continued development of the team’s talented young roster. With a win this weekend, Miami can establish itself as the clear frontrunner in the ACC Coastal Division. Win a win this weekend and a win in their next game against Oklahoma, the Canes can establish themselves as a top five team nationally.

If not Virginia Tech, the program that can best derail Miami’s return to glory is coached by a former key component of their past glory, North Carolina. Like Randy Shannon at Miami, coach Butch Davis is in year three of his time in Chapel Hill and he has built a program ready to make some noise this season. Like Miami, North Carolina relies on a talented group of underclassmen, led by QB Tyler Yates who played well last week against East Carolina. Davis is already 2-0 versus Miami and gets the Canes at home on November 14 in a match-up that just may decide the Coastal Division. The Tar Heels open conference play on the road against Georgia Tech this weekend.


As for the Atlantic Division, we will know a great deal more about these teams after this weekend. Although there is only one ACC game scheduled, with Wake Forest traveling to Boston College, the four other Atlantic teams all take on quality non-conference opponents. Florida State hosts South Florida, Clemson hosts TCU, North Carolina State hosts Pittsburgh and Maryland hosts Rutgers as the Atlantic Division has ACC pride on the line this Saturday. A win by Clemson could stamp the tigers as early season division favorites, but we have been down that slippery road before.


The ACC has already had a player set an individual NCAA record as Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson threw his 326th straight pass without an INT to break the record held by recent Kentucky QB Andre Woodson. Wilson pushed his mark to 329 in the game against Gardner-Webb and amazingly has thrown 25 TDs to 1 INT for his young career. Wilson now faces a Pitt team that returned seven of its top eight DBs from last season.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Big East Recap


The Big East had a mixed weekend with some nice wins (Cincinnati over Oregon State, Connecticut over Baylor, Pittsburgh over Navy and Syracuse over Northwestern) coupled with near misses against SEC teams with Louisville losing to Kentucky and West Virginia blowing a 14-pt lead at Auburn. No one ever seems to credit the Big East when they do beat teams from the other BCS conferences, but at least splitting against the SEC would have helped a conference desperately searching for some news worth promoting. The play of Louisville and Syracuse make it evident that the Big East will not have any embarrassing bottom feeders this year. The conference race should be highly competitive this fall.

South Florida suffered the biggest loss of the weekend as QB Matt Grothe, the Big East’s career leader in total offense, was lost for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee. RS frosh QB B.J. Daniels (10-13/149y, TD; 8/105y, 2 TDs rushing) played well off the bench in the 59-0 romp over Charleston Southern, but his opponent for this week presents a bit of a talent upgrade over the Bucs as South Florida travels to Tallahassee for a highly-anticipated first-ever meeting with Florida State. The game will be a homecoming for Tallahassee native Daniels, but that will probably just add some extra pressure.

The conference’s biggest winner—with all due respect to coach Doug Marrone’s first-ever win at the helm of the Orangemen—remains Cincinnati, who impressively beat the Beavers on the road by 10, 28-18. QB Tony Pike had another brilliant game, completing 31-49 for 332y and 2 TDs with 1 INT. The Bearcats moved up to no. 14 in the current AP Poll.

Cincinnati 1-0; 3-0 overall
Pittsburgh 0-0; 3-0 overall
South Florida 0-0; 3-0 overall
Connecticut 0-0; 2-1 overall
West Virginia 0-0; 2-1 overall
Louisville 0-0; 1-1 overall
Syracuse 0-0; 1-2 overall
Rutgers 0-1; 2-1 overall

Sunday, September 20, 2009

After Midnight


Wish I could say I watched UCLA’s 23-9 victory over Kansas State live after midnight Eastern time. Actually, I watched it pretty much at the time the sun was coming up over the Atlantic Ocean.

Here’s what occurred: Arizona State’s win over Louisiana-Monroe—shown live on Fox Sports Arizona—pushed back the start of a tape delayed UCLA game. After a long day of watching Nebraska give away a win to Virginia Tech, Notre Dame try to give away a win to Michigan State, and other adventures by California, Penn State, Iowa, Army, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, I was too bushed to do anything but dub my own version of the taped action from the Rose Bowl. It was an interesting match-up of two coaches—Rick Neuheisel and Bill Snyder—who used to battle each other annually at Colorado and K-State respectively.

A police and handcuffs nightmare—was I under arrest for posting lousy game picks in Week 2?—awoke me at 3:30 a.m. MST, so I rolled tape of the second half. Kansas State back Daniel Thomas, a former JC performer, crafted some nice spurts running the ball on an eight-minute TD drive in the third quarter to pull the Wildcats within 13-9.

But from that moment on, the Bruins’s defense really sparkled and ended with six sacks as they protected their 23-9 lead built on Kai Forbath’s field goal and WR Terrance Austin’s long reception of a perfect crossing-pattern TD pass from Kevin Craft, last year’s highly-limited QB who played well last night in place of Kevin Prince, who broke his jaw last week at Tennessee.

UCLA’s defense, which has a hole or two, plays with energy and could help steal an extra win or two in the Pac-10 this year.
Bob Boyles

View From Bennett Avenue

We here at Sunday Morning Quarterbacks long for the days when conference races meant more than they do today. Wanting to convert the college football season into a facsimile of the NFL, television media outlets treat games as a preliminary to the post-season. Who will make the BCS games? Who will be the BCS Buster? And on and on. BYU and Utah lost yesterday and so they will be ignored this season despite what promises to be an excellent Mountain West race. Good conference match-ups between teams that will not play in January are rarely spoken about. And as Pete Carroll learned yet again, going on the road in your conference is dangerous no matter who you are playing. But, do not worry. We will cover the conference races every Sunday, beginning tonight.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Payback or Pushover?


I guess there are some staffers at ESPN trying to keep their jobs and so they have convinced some higher ups that college football fans will not watch the sport--despite record numbers in recent years--without a label for most every weekend (there is also this need to turn coverage of the sport into an extended music video but that will be attacked in another post). It began with "Rivalry Week," which was placed in mid-November despite the appearance of huge rivalry games (Florida-Georgia, Oklahoma-Texas, etc) throughout the calendar. Now we even have lame unofficial monikers like this week's "Redemption Week," even though very few games fall into that category. Take the games played Thursday and Friday of this week. Miami wanted payback for the 41-23 beating adminstered on them by Georgia Tech last year and Fresno State, we were told, was angry that Boise State scored 51 unanswered points on them last year en route to a 61-10 final. Miami had three things in their favor going into Thursday night's game, great talent, confidence from their victory over Florida State in Week One and a home crowd. And so they got "payback" for Tech's "sin" of playing well last year. Fresno, on the other hand, had two major hurdles to overcome: tiredness from their trip to Madison (although that was overblown) and having less talent from the other guy. With Boise now winning eight of nine in this series, there should be no talk of Fresno getting payback when the reality is that they are just not as good as their rivals. They played well and enjoyed the home crowd, but they need to recruit better to beat the dominant force in the WAC conference.


Do you want a true payback game? Three years after Houston ran up the score (95-21) against an SMU program returning from the dead, the Mustangs whipped the Cougars 41-16 in 1992. That's payback.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Long Road to Respectability

Paul’s Picks for Sept. 19, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Last week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 26
Season ATS: Favorites covered 39, failed to cover 48

Last week’s picks: 3-1
Overall: 4-6

Well I have a lucky pork chop to thank for turning my season around. Hopefully the lousy turkey sandwich I had today will not doom me to an equally lousy weekend.

Friday Night Fever

I cannot back up any claims of Friday night success with numbers. I did hit Tulsa week one, but forgot to tell you all about it. So, here goes with the first of, I hope, many correct predicitons for Friday night action.

Friday (9:00pm EDT): Boise State (-7) at FRESNO STATE
While I have enjoyed watching Pat Hill's Fresno State Bulldogs take on any BCS power willing to schedule them over the years, I cannot help but notice their in conference stumbles over the years. In fact, Hill has never won an outright WAC title. The main reason for that has been the presence of Boise State, victors in the series match-up in seven of eight seasons. That trend continues as the Broncos are loaded and have been terrific in two games, scoring 67 points so far this season while surrending only 8. Pick: Boise State -7.

Saturday (12:00pm EDT): Duke (+22) at KANSAS
Did you happen to see the stat sheet for Duke after their road win over Army. It was not pretty. So ride Jayhawks QB Todd Reesing, who should put up big numbers versus the Blue Devils. And he will not give up two pick-6 INTs. Pick: Kansas -22

Saturday (3:30pm EDT): Utah (+4) at OREGON
One of the many reasons why it is difficult to correctly predict games is the lack of visual information. How can I truly gauge the play of Hawaii, let's say, without seeing one of their games? Well, I have seen enough of Oregon to know that they are a middling Pac 10 team at best. Is Utah a top 10 team this year? Probably not, but they are good enough to hang with the Ducks. Pick: Utah +4

Saturday (7:00 EDT): Mississippi State (+9) at VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt's recipe for moderate SEC success is to play good defense and hope to catch a break or two. That style of play did produce a surprising 4-4 conference record in 2008, but the team's margin of victory in those 4 wins was slightly more than 5 pts. This spread is almost twice that and while the Bulldogs are clearly rebuilding under new coach Dan Mullen they can move the chains behind running back Anthony Dixon. Pick: Mississippi State +9

Remember When

It is funny that the upcoming battle between Texas and Texas Tech is being presented as a revenge game for the Longhorns and not an annual tussle between conference rivals. True, Texas is an elite program but they should ignore the talents of the Red Raiders at their own peril. The set-up is eerliy similar to the last time Texas hosted their rivals from Lubbock one year after losing in the rivalry. In 2002, the Red Raiders stunned then no. 4 Texas, 42-38, as QB Kliff Kingsbury threw 6 TD passes and WR Wes Welker gained 247y all-purpose. For the "revenge" match in 2003, Texas was favored by 18.5 points as the nation expected payback. Instead, the game was competitive throughout with Texas needing a late TD drive engineered by a back-up QB.

In the first of a series featuring a recap of a previous battle between teams scheduled for play each week, Sunday Morning Quarterbacks presents the narrative summing up Texas's narrow victory over Texas Tech in 2003 from our book The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia (wherever fine books are sold!).


TEXAS 43 Texas Tech 40: Texas (9-2) coach Mack Brown took chance, and it paid off as former starting QB Chance Mock was inserted with just less than 2 mins left and led winning 86y drive. Mock, in relief of QB Vince Young (16-25/213y, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), completed 54y pass to WR Roy Williams (8/136y) to jumpstart Longhorns before tossing winning 9y TD pass to WR B.J. Johnson with 46 secs remaining. Texas Tech (7-4) had rallied from 35-21 deficit, scoring go-ahead TD on 11y run by RB Taurean Henderson, his 3rd of game, to convert FUM by Young. Once Texas regained lead, Red Raiders QB B.J. Symons (32-56/365y, 3 TDs) had time to drive his O unit to 48y FG ATT, which K Keith Toogood missed wide left as time ran out. Texas RB Cedric Benson rushed for 142y and 2 TDs.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Midweek Grumbling

Okay, I have had it. One week ago Houston was a solid program in a struggling conference, set to light up the scoreboard in a game against then no. 5 ranked Oklahoma State. Led by QB Case Keenum, the Cougars went out and beat a Cowboy team still reading press clippings of their win over Georgia one week prior. After blowing a second half lead to Oklahoma State last year and beating them the previous meeting (2006), the Cougars were confident. It was a nice win and deserving of accolades. I am not mad about that, but am tired of analysts--none of whom apart from Lee Corso had said anything about Houston prior to the upset--now discussing that Houston has a clear shot to be undefeated. "They will be favored in every game," said one expert, despite the fact that they may not be favored next week against Texas Tech. "They have a clear path to an undefeated season," said another after looking at the Houston schedule. Oh yeah? Well, the last time they played at Tulsa, Houston lost by 49 points. Games against Mississippi State, Southern Miss, UTEP and, if they get that far, the Conference USA title game should all be tough and do not overlook rebuilding SMU. Now none of these teams are potential top 10 material--unless Texas Tech beats Texas this weekend--but neither are the Cougars. Their defense still has a lot to prove and the team as a whole has to deal with the pressure of added expectations, pressure that did in conference members East Carolina and Tulsa last year.

So, please let them play the games. For Houston to finish the season undefeated they will have to win 12 more games. Good luck.

Monday, September 14, 2009

The View From Bennett Avenue

Not much was expected of the second weekend of college football. If you had to see the in-laws or put away the patio furniture, this was the weekend to do it. Sure there was hype for the Ohio State-Southern California match-up, but that was an uncompetitive clunker a year ago. Notre Dame versus Michigan? Yeah, both teams look to be back from recently painful seasons, but this is not the clash of Top Ten teams we have seen from this series in years past. Overall, there was not too much excitement expected for the average fan, especially in light of the build-up for the opening games of the NFL.

But that is the beauty of the sport. There is great competition and excitement in the least likely of sources. Just bouncing around the ESPN channels for the early games produced down-to-the wire finishes for Connecticut-North Carolina, Fresno State-Wisconsin and Central Michigan-Michigan State with the Chippewas needing a touchdown, successful on-side kick, penalty on the Spartans to nullify a missed field goal and then a winning field goal—all in the final minute of play. Then in the afternoon, the Irish and Wolverines offered a very entertaining contest that showcased a great deal of talent from both squads, Houston stunned no. 5-ranked Oklahoma State and UCLA and Tennessee knocked heads the entire game before the Bruins pulled out the victory. And then in the evening, who could have expected that Georgia and South Carolina would give us a barn-burner of a game featuring 78 points? Crazy. Meanwhile, the Trojans and Buckeyes spent most of the evening feeling each other out before the visitors prevailed. Most of that game was not pretty, but the same can be said for the Pittsburgh-Tennessee and Green Bay-Chicago pro games too.

All in all, it was a great day even if the nation’s media did not seem to care. Without potential BCS implications, the majority of the games do not really matter in their eyes. They can talk about which teams are in the running for the national title until they are blue in the face, but celebrating the joy of the Central Michigan kids after pulling off that stunner or explaining the implications of Fresno’s narrow loss in the race for spots in the BCS are beyond them.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

After Midnight

Last night’s late games in the West included close calls for Utah and Oregon State and a thriller in Eugene, Ore.

The Utes, working on a 15-game winning streak, fell into a defensive struggle with San Jose State which went into the fourth quarter at 7-7 until Utah QB Terrance Cain pitched a 51-yard TD pass on the third play of the last quarter to help put away a 24-14 win.

Oregon State fell behind UNLV 21-20 in the fourth quarter until its late drive resulted in Justin Kahut’s winning 33-yard field goal with seven seconds left to play.

Duck Thriller

The biggest outcome to be decided after midnight in most of the country was Oregon’s come-from-behind 38-36 victory over a very tenacious Purdue team.

The Boilermakers faced warmer than usual conditions at Oregon that turned into spurts of heavy rain, but the crowd in Eugene seemed more into the battle than the embattled Oregon Ducks. Purdue outgained Oregon by nearly 100 yards and led 7-3, 14-10, and 24-17. It took a pair of defensive TDs by the Ducks to even keep them in the game: DB Walter Thurmond ran back an interception and S Javes Lewis returned a fumble, each for a touchdown. A blocked extra point in the fourth quarter kept Oregon ahead 31-30 and immeasurably helped the Ducks at game’s end.

Coming off a school record rushing effort in his first start in Week 1, Purdue’s under-sized but tough RB Ralph Bolden scored three TDs, and although QB Joey Elliott hasn’t nearly the talent of predecessor Curtis Painter he has plenty of desire. After Purdue’s WR Keith Smith-to-WR Aaron Valentine fourth down TD pass with a minute to play, Elliott just missed the tying points when he fired a two-point pass caught inches past the end-line by TE Kyle Adams.

What did we learn from this outcome? Oregon showed a meager running attack until its freshman-committee of backs sparkled on its last TD drive, and that Bolden is going to be a star of a Boilermaker team that could be far better than anyone expected.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Boulder Blues

Well, it did not take too long into the month of September—11 days in fact—for the first major program to have its season begin to take on the look of a death march. After two bad losses as a favorite, to rival Colorado State and middling Toledo, Colorado is in trouble. Big trouble. Now Sunday Morning Quarterbacks does not believe in getting coaches fired and we will leave the subject of job security in Boulder to others. Their jobs were at risk even before the season began, so stating the obvious is not solving any problems.

The question is, where does the team go from here? While coach Dan Hawkins talked before the season of rankings and double digit victories, the more realistic goal for this squad remains: the Big Twelve North crown. It may seem that the Buffs have hit rock bottom. But, in reality, they are 0-0 in conference play. They have four weeks to recover and possibly turn around their season as conference play begins October 10 when they travel to, gulp, Austin for a match-up with current no. 2 in the nation Texas. Later in the year they do play Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska at home, so a turn-around is not impossible. The kids said all of the right things following the Toledo loss. It is now time to put in the work before the season truly becomes lost.

As for the state of the program, is there a witch doctor in the house? Anyone know how to remove a voodoo curse? Is Dan Brown available to write about the dark secrets that lay at the root of this team’s problems? Whatever pact with the Devil someone signed 20-odd years ago that allowed the Buffs to shoot to the top of the rankings culminating with a shared national title in 1990, only to crash and burn amid numerous scandals and dreadful performances, it is time to say enough is enough. The debt has been paid. The good people of Boulder deserve better.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Get Your Picks Here!

Paul’s Picks for Sept. 12, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Favorites covered 19 games, failed to cover 22 games

Last week: 1-5

Now That’s an Omen

While poking around at lunchtime, I found a left over pork chop (from earlier in the week, not earlier in the summer) in the refrigerator that I had forgotten about. This must be my lucky day! And so with pig in belly, I present the four picks that I will sweep in quest of a .500 record.

Saturday (Noon EDT): Fresno State (+8.5) at WISCONSIN
The Bulldogs failed to pull off the upset in this match-up at home last season, but proved to be solid away from Fresno last season with road victories over Rutgers and UCLA. Wisconsin has gone from 12 wins in coach Bret Bielema’s debut season of 2006, to 9 in 2007, to 7 last year. While we are not predicting a complete collapse, we do worry about the talent level in Madison the further we are removed from the era of coach Barry Alvarez. PICK: Fresno State +8.5

Saturday (Noon EDT): Pittsburgh (-10.5) at BUFFALO
Another rematch from 2008, these teams battled for four quarters in a game at Pittsburgh that the Panthers won 27-16 thanks to 10 straight points in the final quarter. This game should go down to the wire again as the experienced Bulls defense should keep the game close. One concern is the lack of a tall corner to go up against 6’5 wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin of the Panthers. PICK: Buffalo +10.5

Saturday (1:30pm EDT): Marshall (+19) at VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies will find it much easier to get their offense in gear against Marshall after going up against the Alabama defense. Look for bushels of rushing yards for the home team. The Thundering Herd have struggled against BCS conference teams the last few years and this game should be no different. PICK: Virginia Tech -19

Saturday (3:30pm EDT): Texas Christian (-11) at VIRGINIA
A bad September will get even worse for Al Groh’s charges as TCU pays a visit. With Virginia featuring a lot of new faces—having lost their leading rusher, top five receivers and top four tacklers from last season—and the Horned Frogs hungry for wins over BCS conference opponents, this one could get ugly. Losing to William & Mary did nothing for Virginia’s confidence. PICK: TCU-11

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Big East Beating

I am still recovering from the live viewing of the Cincinnati rout of Rutgers Monday. Seeing those grown men take on that group of children was brutal. Someone must prevent this from happening again! Where are the human rights activists when you need them? Why were the Bearcats allowed to play with 12 and sometimes 13 players against a Rutgers program that apparently was not allowed to prepare for this game?

There was one silver lining for the Big East despite an easy win by a smaller market team against the conference's representative from the New York City metropolitan area. Said win did vault the Bearcats into the AP top 25. No Big East team garnered a spot in the preseason poll.

Fortunately, the blowout allowed me to watch most of the compelling Miami win over Florida State. And with the sweep of predictions for Monday's games, Bob and I "rallied" to a 4-8 final mark for the week with Bob finishing at 3-3.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Change we can believe in...maybe.

Several college teams put up surprisingly resurgent performances this opening weekend: Michigan, Syracuse, Washington, and Army led the way after poor 2008 seasons. Are these clues to a turnaround year for each team? Perhaps, but it is too soon to tell.

Michigan 31 Western Michigan 7
Wolverines coach Rich Rodriguez ended his hell week with a resounding victory over a decent Western Michigan team. The jury is still out, but we’ll know about Michigan by mid-season after a visit from Notre Dame this coming Saturday and trips to Michigan State and Iowa. If the Wolverines are 5-1 in October, nobody will ever mention over-the-limit practice time again.

Minnesota 23 Syracuse 20
A lot of people felt the installation of former Duke point guard Greg Paulus as Syracuse’s new starting quarterback was simply a desperate act to create buzz about a formerly fine football program that had stumbled into the gutter. Paulus played reasonably well against Minnesota, rallying the Orange as he doled out short passes as if he were a point guard. His one blunder was an end zone interception in overtime that ruined any chance at victory.

LSU 31 Washington 23
In a weekend full of terrible analysis by almost every broadcaster, ESPN’s Bob Davie hit it square when he suggested the Huskies had playmakers on offense but that it would take time for new coach Steve Sarkisian to find defenders who could match the flyers at wide receiver on a team like LSU. Still, as the newly-enthused Seattle fans, many wearing “I Bark for Sark” tee shirts, will attest, Washington’s offense put on a good show and kept the Huskies in the game Saturday night. Washington welcomed back quarterback Jake Locker and running back Chris Polk from last year’s injury list. Sarkasian is an offensive specialist so it figures that sophomore Johri Fogerson, a real flyer in his own right, was moved from free safety to offense.

Army 27 Eastern Michigan 14
Flying far under the radar was Saturday night’s Army coaching debut of Rich Ellerson. Ellerson, the son of a career military officer and younger brother of West Point’s 1962 football captain and a successful advocate of an option run attack, might be the perfect man to resurrect Black Knights football. Beating Eastern Michigan is no great accomplishment, but it occurred on the road by a team that arrived with only 20 wins this decade. Popping off the stat sheet was six sacks by the Army defense.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Uggggh!

Well at least I have my health. After posting a 0-5 record for picks yesterday, I have lost a great deal of pride. Right now I feel like James Patton, the offensive line coach for Oklahoma. We both feel crummy this morning, but can turn things around in the future with some hard work. I get back on the horse Monday with Cincinnati against Rutgers in a game that I am attending. Perhaps a live appearance can change my fortunes.
At least my picks were for fun. The ACC has to live with their play all season. Already considered a weak sister to conferences like the SEC, the ACC did nothing this week to suggest that those opinions need to be changed. Four conference members took on opponents from BCS conferences and all four lost. Virginia Tech had the marquee appearance and hung around with Alabama thanks to some big plays. But, the Hokies were clearly the weaker team and began to get pushed around by the Tide in the 4th quarter. Maryland really had no chance against a team, California, that has national title aspirations. The Terps had to fly cross-country to take on a team with more talent that was pissed off about their loss when these teams played last season. North Carolina State and Wake Forest laid eggs in contests that they played at home against beatable opponents. The Wolfpack offense got pounded into submission by South Carolina, while the Deamon Deacons surely missed linebacker Aaron Curry and the other three defenders drafted off their 2008 team while chasing Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin.
Making matters worse for the conference were the losses suffered by lesser lights Virginia and Duke against two members of the Colonial Conference, William & Mary and Richmond respectively. Losing to defending FCS national champion Richmond is not something to be too embarassed by, but the fact that two members of a lesser regional conference beat ACC teams is not a good thing.
On Monday an ACC team has to beat someone from a big conference as Miami and Florida State tussle in Tallahassee. The conference does need an exciting game and not one of the offensively-challenged match-ups we have seen from them of late.
Having one of their better days in recent memory were the now three-team collection of independents playing major college football. Notre Dame happily took advantage of Nevada's suspect secondary in beating the Wolfpack 35-0. Navy came within a whisker of stunning Ohio State on the road as the Buckeyes clearly had their eyes on Southern Cal next weekend. And finally, Army picked up a nice road win over Eastern Michigan as the Cadets seemed to have easliy picked up new coach Rich Ellerson's triple option offense.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Tempered Excitement

We here at Sunday Morning Quarterbacks are completely behind the idea of turning the Labor Day Weekend into a college football extravaganza. With the NFL willing to wait until the week after the holiday to begin its season, for optimal television ratings, the college game has to look at this weekend as an opportunity to showcase itself. Sure there is a bit of desperation inherent in the plan, a "come watch us as we are the only game in town" element to the weekend, but with just enough nice match-ups to choose from, the college football fan is excited. Just do not pay too much attention to some of the blowout scores scrolling by on your television. College football's dirty little secret of big-time programs fattening up on schools that do not have the talent to compete is easy to forget amid the hype for Virginia Tech-Alabama.
And please do not expect the finest football. That is the biggest problem with the use of this weekend as a showcase for the sport. The kids--and yes Mark May we are discussing very young men--are not quite ready to play. August camp is as much for conditioning and re-learning the playbook as it is for lessons in how to play the sport of football. With the inherent turnover each year in the sport, units have to take time to jell, newly appointed starters and backups need to prepare for greater responsibility, and freshmen have to stop rubbing stars out of their eyes and begin hitting people. To expect them to be ready to play their "A" game out of the gate is ridiculous.
And yet there was May, a Hall of Fame player himself, tearing into North Carolina State at halftime of the team's eventual loss to South Carolina Thursday night. Citing a crucial fumble, blocked punt and dropped pass in the USC end zone, May made it clear that as much as the Gamecocks defense deserved credit for the struggles of the Wolfpack offense, it really was the team's lack of preparedness that had done them in. And there was no excuse for that. Really? As I heard that I wondered how May's own Pitt teams fared in openers and needed to look no further than the Panthers' opening win in May's final season, 1980. Opening my author's copy of The USA Today Encyclopedia of College Football--available where good books are sold--I noticed that the Panthers began the season with a 14-6 win over Boston College. That seemed to be a low number of points for an offense featuring Dan Marino, Randy McMillan, Jimbo Covert, Russ Grimm and one Mark May. So I sped to the section of the book detailing the 1980 season and the opening sentence of the recap of the Pitt-BC game immediately caught my eye. "Still shedding early season kinks, foes combined for 16 TOs (turnovers)." I add emphasis now to the number 16. Marino threw five interceptions. Mike Mayock of the NFL Network was a key member of that Eagles secondary, so perhaps he can shed light on how ready Pitt was to begin that season. How those Panthers were so much more prepared than the Wolfpack were Thursday night. And did I mention that the game was played on September 13, which is a much more reasonable start date for football?
Of course the bigger game played Thursday night followed as Boise State knocked off an Oregon squad that then knocked off running back LaGarrette Blount from its two-deep for the rest of the season. While it is true that Boise could not afford a loss if it hopes to play in a BSC bowl game come January, the win did not guarantee them anything. The Ducks looked like a 7-5 or even 6-6 team Thursday night and if they struggle this year the benfit of beating them goes out the window. They have plenty of time to improve, of course, although losing Blount does not help even if they are deep at back. They lost this game at the line of scrimmage, a problem that is tough to fix. As for Boise, they looked good but not like world beaters the other night. And while Oregon was the big profile team on their schedule, they do have some tough opponents coming up with games at Fresno and at Bowling Green--who had an impressive win over Troy the other night--later this month and trips to Tulsa and Louisiana Tech in midseason. How crazy will Ruston, Louisiana be on a Friday night in early November? The Broncos do get Nevada at home late in the season, but needed 4 overtimes to beat the Wolfpack 69-67 two years ago on the blue field.
So, please, let's play the games. This will not be the first time I need to make that statement.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Week One Predictions: The Dirty Dozen

Paul’s Picks for Sept. 3-7, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

I like a lot of smaller schools this weekend as the list of bigger programs taking on little guys features a great many teams loaded with questions (Arizona, Auburn, Clemson, Michigan, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA). I can easily see a couple of those teams fighting for their lives come the fourth quarter this weekend. But, which team to select?

Saturday: Louisiana Tech at Auburn (-13)
With Auburn installing its third offense in the past 12 months, Louisiana Tech is the stable team in this match-up. The Bulldogs return 16 starters from a squad that surprised many by finishing third in the WAC last year. We feel that Tech coach Derek Dooley will make a name for himself by guiding his team past father Vince’s alma mater. Then again, all they have to do is come close. Pick: LOUISIANA TECH +13

Saturday: Louisiana State (-17) at Washington
Sticking with squads from the Bayou, LSU is looking to bounce back from a five-loss season and will begin their redemption tour with a whipping of the Huskies. Don’t get us wrong, we feel that Washington will be improved this year, but with a rookie coach in Steve Sarkisian and a talented opponent looking to make a statement, the season opener will be more of the same. Pick: LSU -17

Saturday: Minnesota (-6.5) at Syracuse
Syracuse is undertaking a total rebuilding effort under new coach Doug Marrone that may produce results down the road, while the visiting Gophers are in year three of a similar effort under coach Tim Brewster. The talent level is lopsided in the visitors’ favor, which will spoil Marrone’s debut and the opener for feel-good-story/quarterback Greg Paulus. Pick: MINNESOTA -6.5

Saturday: Illinois (-6.5) versus Missouri (St. Louis)
This match-up has produced shootouts the past two seasons. Unfortunately for Missouri, there is only one team equipped to score big this season and it is the Illini. We feel that it will take a season for the Tigers to recover from the losses of some of the greatest performers in school history. Pick: ILLINOIS -6.5

Saturday: Toledo at Purdue (-10.5)
With great deal of returning talent at Toledo, we feel that this match-up will go down to the wire in West Lafayette. Basically, until all of the new starters jell for new Purdue coach Danny Hope, the Boilermakers should not be favored by double digits against anyone. Pick: TOLEDO +10.5

Monday: Cincinnati at Rutgers (-6)
True, Cincinnati’s defense was gutted by graduation. And it is also true that Rutgers is opening a renovated stadium. But two more important facts are that the Bearcats have the best coach (Brian Kelly) and quarterback (Tony Pike) in the Big East and should take Rutgers down to the wire in this conference opener. Pick: CINCINNATI +6

One More Reason to Love College Football

As if we could love it any more? But college football's grip on Labor Day Weekend has given those saddened by the end of summer (and yes summer ends this Monday and not three weeks from now) a reason to smile. Sure summer is over, but that just means that college football is beginning. All hail the start of the 2009 season! If it means the end of summer fun, than so be it.
You see, not enjoying the arrival of the college football season is like living in Vermont and not enjoying skiing, or if warmer images appeal to you more, like living in Arizona and not playing golf. That is, there is a negative attached to too much snow or too much, well, lack-of-snow, so you have to take advantage of the positive. So when the snow comes, get out and enjoy it. And when the sun continues, get out and enjoy it. And when Labor Day arrives, don't sulk that the summer is over but turn on Virginia Tech versus Alabama, or Oregon traveling to Boise, or Oklahoma State clashing with Georgia. Turn something potentially bad into something very, very good.
Tune in this afternoon to our weekly picks!