Monday, August 30, 2010

2010 SEC Preview


The SEC will not win a 5th consecutive BCS title in 2010. There I said it. I can not come up with a team to beat no. 1-ranked Alabama, mind you, but someone will do so either during the regular season, in the SEC title game or in a bowl game. And no other SEC squad looks good enough to win a championship outside of the defending national champs.
The conference has become too top heavy, with Alabama and Florida becoming too dominant. Yeah some folks are excited about Arkansas and Auburn as possible sleepers out West, and Georgia may give the Gators a run for their money this season, but to me we will see Alabama and Florida meet once again in the SEC title game this December. And hopefully this year the game will go down to the wire.
Florida's ride to the Eastern crown will be much tougher this year. While I think new QB John Brantley will be fine, the offense will not bounce back to the highs of 2008. The best player on that side of the ball may well be center Mike Pouncey, with back Jeff Demps out to prove he is more than a speedster. Despite losing six starters and coordinator Charlie Strong, the Gators defense will maintain its bite.
On September 11 Georgia will travel to South Carolina for what could be the battle to determine the biggest threat to Florida's dominance. I am not buying the love for the Gamecocks this season and like Georgia to win the game and bounce back with a solid season. While the QB position is up in the air, the rest of the offense should be outstanding. While wide receiver A.J. Green justifably gets a lot of attention, other members of that unit will be earning their own national acclaim. It is on defense where the bulldogs need to improve enough to challenge Florida and new coordinator Todd Grantham--fresh from a stint as d-line coach of the Dallas Cowboys--is the man on the spot.
South Carolina is the only other team in the East with a shot at a divisional title--thanks to their 16 returning starters. That number may fall to 15 if star TE Weslye Suanders get suspended for a host of infractions. Will this be coach Steve Spurrier's last shot at glory? I believe that SC will look good against light opponents but fade against anyone that hits them in the mouth.
The remaining three SEC East squads will be hard-pressed to win enough games to be bowl-worthy, including Tennessee. Of course, there are enough easy teams on SEC schedules to squeak into a bowl game--ala Kentucky last year--so there is hope. If the Vols fall one short they will rue the day Oregon was scheduled for this September 11--unless they pull the upset.
Out West, while I am not buying the fact that Alabama is one of the best teams of all time, they still should dominate play. Thye do have to play Arkansas and LSU on the road. The Tide have a ton of offense coming back, including Heisman winner Mark Ingram, but lost a great deal on defense. The replacements all fly around the field so Alabama should be fine there. All that said, it is just not easy to repeat.
The battle for second should be a fun one and the winner should finish the season with a great shot for a high ranking. While Auburn is a trendy pick, I want to see what they can do with expectations. I am going with Arkansas and LSU to tie for second with the Hogs riding a great second half run behind quarterback Ryan Mallett. Although the passing game, with Mallett and his top five receivers returning, get the lion's share of attention, the improvement of the Razorbacks defense is what will make this team a top ten finisher.
As for LSU, the defense will be as great as always, with linebacker Kelvin Shepherd and corner Patrick Peterson leading the way. It will be the offense, of course, that will make or break this team. Can QB Jordan Jefferson continue to improve? Can multi-purpose back Russell Shepard become the next SEC offensive superstar now that he is free from quarterback duties? We will find out soon enough as the Tigers play North Carolina in Atlanta on Saturday.
Auburn slots in at no. 4 out West, but the key for the Tigers is that the program as a whole continues to improve. I just do not know if coach Gene Chizik can win 10 games. The key for the team is the play of quarterback Cam Newton, a former Florida recruit who won a juco title last year. He is expected to thrive in coach Gus Malzahn's offense, but putting up big numbers and closing out big SEC games are two different beasts. Still with eight home games, the Tigers are defintely targeting a big season.
Mississippi has a favorable early schedule and could thus build the confidence lacking last season when they disappointed. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, late of Oregon, will play a lot for a Rebels team desperate for playmakers.
The MSU Bulldogs will continue to improve under coach Dan Mullen. The goal this year is bowl eligibility and they may have to pull more than one upset to achieve it. Road games at LSU, Houston, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi will make a winning record an impressive accomplishment.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

So Close We Can Taste It


It is just about here. The 2010 season will begin Thursday night when the epic struggle between Wake Forest and the Presbyterian Blue Hose of the Big South Conference kicks off at 6:30. Later that evening no. 2-ranked Ohio State opens their season with a surprising Thursday night game--what the Big Ten Network wants, the Big Ten Network must get--against Marshall, while Pittsburgh and Utah tangle in the night's best match-up and USC finds themselves up against Leno and Letterman with their late tilt at Hawaii.

Opening week is special as the absence of regular season NFL action allows college football to take over the airwaves. From Thursday through Monday night plenty of the top teams in the nation will be in action, with the final game of the weekend--Boise State versus Virginia Tech on Monday night--providing us with the most important contest. Other games I look forward to seeing are Notre Dame hosting Purdue in coach Brian Kelly's debut as head man of the Irish, Oregon State versus TCU, Washington and BYU doing battle, LSU knocking heads with North Carolina and Connecticut taking on Michigan. Alabama opens their defense of their national championship with what should be a laugher against San Jose State, while Florida tangles with Miami--Miami of Ohio. Let the games begin.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

2010 ACC Preview


There is a great desire on the part of the media to have Miami and Florida State return to past glory. I assume that the majority of these folks came of age during the 1980s and to them college football would make more sense with national powers rolling out of Coral Gables and Tallahassee on an annual basis. And so this August the talent on both of these squads look pretty good to a large number of writers who I feel are combining sound analysis with a little wishful thinking.

Which is not say that both of these teams stink. They do have talent and will be factors in the race for the Coastal and Atlantic Divisions this year. But they will not win either and will have to settle for non BCS bowls.

Who will instead meet in the ACC title game? I am sticking with the two other former Big East programs who have each been more successful than the Hurricanes--much to the displeasure of those hoping for another Miami national title run--Boston College and Virginia Tech.

Picking the Hokies is a bit boring I do admit as they usually do capture the Coastal Division or at least come very close. Last year they finished second to Georgia Tech, thanks in large part to a 28-23 loss to the Yellow Jackets in mid-season. The rematch this year is November 4, a game that begins a November run of three crucial games (at UNC and at Miami follow). While the Hokies took some losses on the defensive side, they will be sound there in 2010. What is particularly exciting about this year's Virginia Tech team, however, is on the other side of the ball where all of their skill position player return, led by quarterback Tyrod Taylor and back Ryan Williams, and they get running back Darren Evans back from injury. They ended 2009 with four straight blowout wins and I predict that romps will be the norm this season. Beat Boise in week one and the Hokies will be in the top 3 once the first BCS standing come out. Helping their case for a spot in the BCS title game will be an easy win in the ACC championship tilt.

For second place in the division I will go with the Yellow Jackets to edge out Miami. No one seems to like coach Paul Johnson, but the guy is a magnificent coach. Yes the team lost some of their most famous players from last year's squad but the offense will hum behind QB Josh Nesbitt, a solid line now experienced at this style of play and plenty of talented backs. Look for Anthony Allen to more than double his total of 618 yards rushing from last season. Meanwhile the defense is now in the hands of Al Groh, who is as excellent a coordinator as he was mediocre as a head man.

Miami will once again pay the price for a difficult schedule. among their six road games are killers at Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Clemson and Georgia Tech. I may be devaluing them because of the poor performance the team turned in against Wisconsin last January. This is a talented team and if they can consistently play at a high level they can win this division.

As for North Carolina, they can go one of two ways. Use the outside forces swirling around the program as a motivational tool to make a run for the ACC title or be overwhelmed by all of the negative publicity and possibility of some significant suspensions to fold their tent. Being that the Tar Heels have not managed to overwhelm anyone with this talent before, I think folding is much more likely. And in doing so they may not even finish fourth in this very tough division as Duke is good enough to edge them out. The Blue Devils are now experienced and look to pull an upset or two in coach David Cutcliffe's third season at the helm. As for Virginia? Well the campus is pretty.

It was difficult picking Boston College to win the Atlantic Division as they have the must unsure QB situation of the big three contenders with FSU and Clemson. But the Eagles have a sound defense, excellent run game and most favorable schedule. They also have the motivation of the return of linebacker Mark Herzlich from his successful bout with cancer. Herzlich is not only a great backer but a team leader and his return, the ability to run Montel Harris behind stud tackle Anthony Castonzo and a good coaching staff will make the difference in a tight race. And yes I am purposely not mentioning their passing game.

Losing the distraction that became the coaching situation last year has got to be a boon for the Seminoles. But can Jumbo Fisher be a good head coach? We'll see on September 11 when the Noles travel to Norman to take on Oklahoma. I think he will be fine but the true story is how good the defense can improve under Mark Stoops, who comes from Arizona to fix a unit that gave up a ton of big plays in 2009. If they cannot greatly improve the 30 points per game they surrendered last season, the offense will be forced to win shootouts over and over again.

Clemson rode the tremendous abilities of back C.J. Spiller to the division crown last year and will have to make huge adjustments with him now in the pros. But there is talent on both sides of the ball to make some hay but not enough to overcome road games at both BC and FSU.

Of the remaining three teams in the division, Maryland, North Carolina State and Wake Forest, the team with the best shot to force their way in title consideration is Wake Forest--but only if their passing attack is not truly abysmal. Their schedule is much, much better than the Wolfpack's, who probably have the most talent of the three. NC State also welcomes back linebacker Nate Irving from injury. Maryland will be better than last season's 2-10 club but not by enough to save coach Ralph Friedgen's job.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

ACC Preview Pause


I am long overdue with conference previews other than the completed Big East one from what seems like months ago. But the ACC preview, which was next on the list, has now been prevented from seeing the light of day due to the troubles at Chapel Hill.

The University of North Carolina was expected to challenge for the ACC title. That still may happen but the school, which was already waiting to find out if some key players were going to be suspended due to the now infamous party in Florida that was hosted by agents, is now dealing with more bad news. The NCAA is investigating an academic scandal involving several football stars and a tutor who allegedly did more work than permissible.

So what do we make of the Tar Heels? If any suspensions are tolerable, will they use them as motivation? If stars are suspended for half a season or more, will they tank? I have a day to sort it out.

View From Bennett Avenue

With their season opener against Purdue nine days away, Notre Dame has come to an agreement with NBC concerning the length of commercial breaks for the games shown on NBC this fall. NBC will follow a model of five shorter commercial breaks per quarter instead of four longer ones. The agreement is significant for new Irish coach Brian Kelly, whose hurry-up offense would have been slightly less effective with its opponents' defense taking longer breaks.
For Notre Dame to return to prominence they need Kelly to succeed. For NBC to see its ratings improve they need Kelly to succeed. So the compromise, which is similar to an NFL model, was struck. While some may find the slightly shorter breaks insignificant, the Irish offense knows it needs every bit of tiredness on the part of the defense to approach the high levels enjoyed by Kelly's Cincinnati attack.

Friday, August 20, 2010

View From Bennett Avenue

Raise your hands if you thought we were done with all talk about schools switching conferences--at least until next year. But then a newspaper article outs BYU's desire to make like Notre Dame (well, athletically anyway) and become independent in football while having their other sports return to the WAC. The Mountain West then pounced on Fresno State and Nevada to replace BYU and a Utah program that jumped ship earlier this summer.
While Fresno and Nevada are fine programs, the dreams of glory that the MWC enjoyed after luring Boise State to join with the two Utah programs and TCU in what would be an excellent football conference have been officially dashed. They have lost ground and now have to hope that TCU stays as they will look attractive to a Big 12 shy a couple of members.
As far as BYU is concerned, they have always been an independent spiritually. Losing rival Utah to the Pac 10 ended their main connection to the MWC and so being independent makes sense as long as they can pull off the scheduling. Notre Dame knows that they have a long list of teams lined up to play them. BYU? I am not so sure as a trip there does not help with recruiting nor help most schools reach alumni. The Cougars will play you hard and yet a win against them rarely counts for as much as it should.
The WAC is obviously the big loser here. Good luck to them.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

2010 Big East Preview


The Big East will be hotly contested once again this year as six of the eight teams in the conference have a legitimate shot at the title. Three schools, Louisville (Charlie Strong), South Florida (Skip Holtz) and Cincinnati (Butch Jones) have new head coaches and all three made great hires. Optimism abounds throughout a conference that is not just happy to have survived a spring filled with rumors of destruction, but looks to continue making inroads nationally even without the recognition.

The action may be focused on the ground this season with nine of the top ten conference rushers returning this year including Dion Lewis of Pittsburgh and Noel Devine of West Virginia, who both have eyes on national awards. Lewis, who was not highly rated as a high school runner, was the surprise freshman of the country last season as he rushed for 1,799 yards en route to second team All America honors. If Devine can eliminate the injury bug that plagued him last year he will challenge Lewis as the top back in the conference.

After back-to-back conference titles for Cincinnati, it is time for some new blood as Big East champion. While most prognosticators are pointing to the talented Panthers of Pittsburgh, I will go for a slight surprise and select the Connecticut Huskies as conference champions for the first time. The team's strength is the offensive line, where four starters return including first team Big East performers at center in Moe Petrus and right guard in Zach Hurd. With plenty of holes to choose from, running back Jordan Todman will challenge Lewis and Devine for the conference rushing title. He rushed for 1,188 yards last year while sharing the ball with then senior Andre Dixon, who also topped the 1,000-yard barrier with 1,093. The Huskies do expect to pass more this season as their top two quarterbacks, senior Zach Frazier and junior Cody Endres, return. Frazier will get the nod opening day and must improve on a 53.2 completion percentage and 10-9 TD to INT ratio. The Connecticut defense will build upon the beat-down they gave South Carolina in the PapaJohns.com Bowl last December. The team's top three tackles return, including linebacker Lawrence Wilson who made 140 stops in 2009. The key to the team may be the pass defense which struggled at times last season. They do not face a big-time pass offense until mid-season and should be able to get things squared away by then. This squad matured a great deal last season as they dealt with the mid-season murder of corner Jasper Howard. With that maturity, great coaching in Randy Edsall and staff and a conference schedule that features home games with West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, the Huskies are poised to win the Big East title.

For second place in the Big East I am predicting Pittsburgh, which is still angry from falling short last season. Pitt only returns 11 starters from last season's squad, but many of the returnees are threats for All America honors and many of the new starters are as talented as the players they replace. While Lewis is the star of the offense, wideout Jonathan Baldwin had a breakthrough year himself in '09 with 57 catches for 1,111 yards. Baldwin is the type of big target new starter at QB Tino Sunseri will count on as he runs the Panthers offense. The Panthers defense also features returning stars, like defensive end Greg Romeus and strong safety Dom DeCicco, and young studs ready to make their mark. Head coach Dave Wannstedt has high hopes for linebacker Dan Mason, while highly-recruited defensive tackle T.J. Clemmings may force his way into a starting job as a freshman.

If West Virginia can avoid the distractions of a NCAA probe into how they use their staff and get consistent play from new quarterback Geno Smith, the Mountaineers have the talent to win the Big East title. They also play both Connecticut and Pittsburgh on the road and if they can split those two games they may be able to make a run to a BCS berth. With seven of eight returning tacklers on a punishing defense, returning offensive stars in Devine and wide receiver Jock Sanders, and a stud kicker in Tyler Bitancurt, the Mountaineers are loaded. They do lose associate head coach Doc Holliday, who moved on to the head job with Marshall. Does coach Bill Stewart have the makings of a conference-winning head coach?

South Florida has an explosive offense and inexperienced-but-talented defense, a combination that Cincinnati converted into a Big East title last year. New coach Skip Holtz has an exciting quarterback in B.J. Daniels and the full two-deep offensive line returning, but lost a host of draft choices and all Big East selections from the defense. The Bulls could surprise, especially considering their final four conference games include home games against Rutgers, Pittsburgh and Connecticut. At the very least they will have a say as to who does win the conference.

Cincinnati also returns an exciting quarterback in Zach Collaros, who filled in admirably for the injured Tony Pike last season as the Bearcats won the Big East crown for their second straight year. The Bearcats are still good but cannot expect to win their final three conference games by a total of six points again this year. Still, they will score a bunch of points.

The excitement generated by Rutgers this season will center on the dynamic tandem of quarterback Tom Savage and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu, both sophomores. But RU has lost too much talent to be a true conference contender without the development of a number of new starters. Playing Pitt, USF, Cincinnati and West Virginia on the road with a young squad will not help either and a sixth straight bid to a no-name bowl seems unavoidable.

Actually Rutgers better watch out for Syracuse, a team much improved from last year when they surprisingly blew out the Scarlet Knights. Running back Delone Carter was almost lost after being suspended for punching a student this spring. He has been reinstated and looks to better the 1,021 yards rushing he gained last year, while the defense's top seven tacklers return along with stud punter Rob Long.

I love the hiring of Charlie Strong at Louisville and believe the future is bright there. That said, 2010 will feature a great deal of growing pains and, well, losses.

Friday, August 6, 2010

View From Bennett Avenue


Let me begin by stating that I am not a fan of preseason polls. That said, this is a blog covering college football so I had better comment on the recently released The USA TODAY/Coaches Poll. And so...Florida State? Why do the Seminoles have to be ranked every August. Just as writers covering the NFL must select the Dallas Cowboys as the favorites in the NFC East every year, so too must their college football brethren swoon for the Noles.

But Florida State is only ranked 20th and will disappear once Oklahoma blows them out in September. So let's discuss the top ten, featuring Alabama as no. 1. The Crimson Tide do return a boat-load of starters, although they did lose LB Rolando McClain, NT Terrence Cody and DB Javier Arenas from their defense and G Mike Johnson from their offense. They are trying their best to keep DE Marcell Dareus eligible as not only does he project to have a huge season but his four career starts are two more than any other member of the defensive line.

Ohio State, with many expecting QB Terrelle Pryor to explode this season, Florida and Texas round out the top four of national powers. These schools are perennial members of the preseason top five, even when they lose the type of future Hall of Fame QB that both the Gators and Longhorns lost.

The big news was with the five hole, occupied by Boise State. The Broncos play no. 6 Virginia Tech on Labor Day and so we will know a great deal about their chances of gaining a BCS title spot in week one. Trailing the Hokies by one spot is another non-BCS team in TCU, who also have a tough test week one in Oregon State. Good friends Oklahoma and Nebraska fall eight-nine, and that would be a great Big 12 conference title match-up in Nebraska's final season of conference play. Iowa completes the top ten; the Hawkeyes are the second of four Big Ten teams to be ranked in the top 14 with Wisconsin--my pick for the conference crown--coming in at 12 and Penn State opening at no. 14.

I feel that Auburn at 23 and Utah, tied for 24, are too low while Notre Dame is not ranked at all. They will finish the year in the top 20, mark my words. I also am bullish on Connecticut, Arizona and Missouri, who will all need to win in September to woo voters.

But that is enough already on preseason polls.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Warm and Fuzzy Feeling Long Gone


Well it is official: Boise State is now one of the big boys. The days of the Broncos being America's underdog champion are over. Put all of the David versus Goliath imagery away when regarding the Boise football program as they are no longer packing just a sling.

The Broncos play at such a high level that any notion that they remain underdogs to virtually any other program is absurd. Boise will no longer be able to sneak up on anyone but are now expected to compete for a BCS berth on an annual basis and, when the stars are aligned properly, even get itself into the BCS title game. There is a legitimate chance for that to happen this year.

But the end of Boise as a feel-good story became official for another reason. They are now acting like the big boys when it comes to the treatment of programs they deem beneath them. With the school's departure from the WAC conference to enter the Mountain West for the 2011 season, the rivalry with in-state program and fellow WAC member Idaho is no longer guaranteed. The rivalry has become extremely one-sided in recent years with Idaho having lost the last 11 in the series--played the past nine years for The Governor's Cup--by at least 15 points with Boise winning the past six games by a whopping 38-ppg average. Boise coach Chris Petersen came out to say that the Broncos no longer see a reason to travel to Moscow to play their rivals as the Idaho fans have been a bit rough. He did not mention that the Vandals have improved on the field, winning eight games last year including the Humanitarian Bowl. Boise State school president Bob Kustra then took the issue onto the national stage by agreeing with Peterson about the lack of interest on part of the Broncos to travel to Moscow because the environment at Idaho was "nasty" and "inebriated." Suffice it to say that the liquor stores of Moscow should do brisk business on November 12th of this year when Boise comes to visit for what may be the final time.

The recent turmoil surrounding Boise State football is just part of doing business at a program that rose from little known nationally as recently as 2000 to national title contender in 2010. With such a meteoric rise, some other people were always going to have their feelings hurt. And the original story of little Boise taking on the bigger guys was never quite as accurate as portrayed. Sure they were not fielding units packed with four and five star recruits, but many of their better athletes were available to them because of poor grades not because they lacked BCS conference talent. Others were attracted to the promise of playing time or the system, while others were coached up by an always solid group of coaches. And now, of course, Boise is able to recruit better thanks to the success they have earned on the field. But the notion that there was some impossibly large chasm between the talent on the Boise roster and the talent on the rosters of the bigger programs they faced was always exaggerated. Plus Boise may not have been spending as much on football as Oklahoma, but they have poured a great deal of capital into facilities and salaries, etc. The rise of Boise football--which merits a whole book to properly dissect it--was the product of vision, money, football smarts and a lot of hard work. It was not a Statue-of-Liberty-play type of fluke. But now how they handle themselves on-and-off the field will be more important under greater media scrutiny.