Monday, December 31, 2012

Today's Picks

I am about to run out of the hotel so here goes:
Vandy-7
SC -7.5
ISU-1.5
LSU -6
All favorites I know but...

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Chris Ault Retires

Longtime Nevada head coach and former QB, already a College Football Hall of Famer for his innovative coaching, stepped down after 28 years of coaching.  This is Ault's second retirement but this one should stick for the 66-year-old, who led the Pack on their rise from Division II to FCS level and now FBS.  Ault won at every level.  He also changed football in various ways, from being an early proponent of overtime to his recent development of the Pistol Offense, which is now employed by teams throughout the country.  Former charge Colin Kaepernick is living proof that Ault knows his stuff.  And in true Ault style he is purposely leaving with a ton of starters returning for next year so as not to screw his replacement.
Ault deserved to go out on top and I hate that his final game--indeed the final 46 seconds--featured a crazy 2-TD rally by opponent Arizona, who won the game 49-48.  But that is football I guess and Ault has been around long enough to know that no lead is safe in a game with little defense.  But I did love that his offense exploited every inch of field, flummoxing Arizona defenders with an unbelievably varied offense.  They just did not get the ball back one more time.

Today's Picks

Well my hot start to the bowl season has fizzled away.  Desperate to return to the win column I am going all in on Air Force (-1.5), Syracuse (+3.5), ASU (-13.5), Oregon State (-1.5) and TCU (-2.5).

Friday, December 28, 2012

Larry Morris RIP

There was a time, 60 years ago, when Georgia Tech was a national power.  Coached by Bobby Dodd, the Ramblin' Wreck enjoyed a 31-game unbeaten streak over the first years of the 1950s and produced dozens of All Americans and a number of future Hall of Famers.
Two of the best were a pair of centers named Morris, George and Larry.  George was captain and star of the 12-0 1952 unit while Larry anchored the team the following two years.  They both were tough, talented and smart and ferocious on defense.  Both Morrises would eventually be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
It was at a Hall event that I had the pleasure of making acquaintances with George Morris.  He was a wonderful man, warm and gregarious.  I soon found out that the Morrises were not brothers and then found out that they were a lot closer than siblings in their retirement.  Larry, who starred in both college and pro ball, later suffered from dementia.  By the time I met George, in 2004, Larry was very sick and George was helping Larry's family as much as he could.  Although not brothers, they were linked by being teammates and George knew Larry would help his fmily if the roles were reversed.  Sadly George died from a heart attack in 2007.  Larry lived on until this December 19 when he died from complications of dementia at age 79.

Today's Picks

Ouch.  I lost two games yesterday in last minute and then watched the UCLA JV try to stop Baylor.  I really like La-Monroe and Texas Tech minus the points today and Rutgers in a close one. Good luck.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Today's Picks

Sorry but I was busy moving some of my books.  Does anyone want one?  Let me know.
I went with Bowling Green and Duke with the points and UCLA today.  I will write earlier tomorrow!

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Today's Bowl Pick

Are we really at the point whereby 6-6 MAC teams earn bowl bids?  Why play the Little Ceasar's Bowl?  No one wants to play in that game (sorry Detroit).  No one will see it.  What is the point?
That .500 MAC team, Central Michigan, will square off against a very good Western Kentucky squad.  Central went 4-1 down the stretch to claim this bowl berth.  The cumulative record of the four teams they beat?  8-40.  You cannot make this up.  Their opponent tonight, Western Kentucky, struggled down the stretch, losing four of six after a great start to the season (5-1 with wins on the road at Kentucky, Arkansas State and Troy).  Their coach, Willie Taggart, has accepted the job at USF.  But this is a veteran Western squad and in a match-up of squads looking to pound the ball more often than most they should come out ahead by more than a TD.  Pick: Western Kentucky -6.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Merry Christmas to All

I hope everyone had a great day.  Have a great New Year's too.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Today's Picks

Busy with pre-Christmas activity so I will keep this short. I like Louisiana Lafayette laying 6.5 and Washington getting 5 today.  That's it. Enjoy.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Today's Pick

Predicting the outcome of tonight's Poinsettia Bowl via numbers is a testimony to just how difficult that can be.
For one thing, BYU generally owns San Diego State from their days together in both the WAC and MWC.  The Cougars are 27-5 in their last 32 meetings versus their former "rivals" and have done so by an average margin of 17.  Advantage BYU.
But the game is being played in San Diego at Qualcomm Stadium, where the Aztecs play, and San Diego State went 6-1 at home this year.  Advantage San Diego State.
But San Diego is an easy trip from Salt Lake City and there are a large number of BYU fans in the San Diego.  Plus the BYU program has a history of playing in San Diego during bowl season from their seemingly annual trip to the Holiday Bowl a generation ago.  Weaken that previous SD State advantage.
But, this edition of BYU struggles against good competition, winning only five games against teams with eventual winning records the past three seasons.  Advantage SD State.
Then again, the Cougars under coach Bronco Mendenhall know how to play in the postseason, winning five of their past six bowl games.  Advantage BYU.
Now the most important numbers may be that San Diego State is 15th in the nation in rushing at 229y per game, with soph back Adam Muema rushing for 1,355y, while BYU is second in rush D (third in overall D) allowing only 84y per.  The team that wins this battle wins the game--or the team that adjusts better (eg the Aztecs throw the ball) wins the game.
I was leaning BYU -3.5 for most of the week BUT have switched last second to San Diego State (the lure of that half point) as I believe they are motivated to break a five-game losing streak, will run just enough at key times in the game and will get better QB play from new starter Adam Dingwell than BYU will get from banged up Riley Nelson.  Take the 3.5 in a game that will go well under the 48 o/u.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Coaching Changes

A ton of coaching upheaval is nearing an end and I would have to say that a majority of schools got it right in terms of finding the right man for their program.  Yeah I know that only time will tell but we can give some early analysis now and then crow about the ones we get right (while doing what the big name analysts do in ignoring the misses).
The most recent hire was that of Gary Andersen by Wisconsin.  Fortunately for Andersen the Badgers job opened late enough for him to coach Utah State to a win over Toledo in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, capping an excellent 11-2 season.  He can now focus his efforts on saving the current Wisconsin recruiting class and hiring a top-notch Big Ten coaching staff.  The no-nonsense, defensive first Andersen fits the mold of a Big Ten coach and should maintain the level of excellence expected in Madison for the past 20 years.  I would grade this hire an "A", especially in light of how late in the game the opening occurred.  I am also looking forward to see Hall of Fame coach Barry Alvarez coach the Badgers for the upcoming Rose Bowl.
I happened to see Alvarez on the day that his former coach Brett Bielema bolted for Arkansas but that was before the announcement.  As for Bielema I feel that he will do fine at Arkansas but he will have to work hard to change the culture there.  While he is smart enough to not blow up the roster in year one he will need to adapt to present talent and instill confidence in a shaken group of players.   I never felt that Bielema was an outstanding coach, despite his impressive record, and that he will miss the abundance of big offensive linemen that they grow up in Wisconsin.  I give this hire a "B" for Brett Bielema.
As surprising as Bielema's jump to Arkansas was the move from Texas Tech to Cincinnati by Tommy Tuberville was even more stunning.  After the fact the move made a little more sense in that his former AD at Auburn, Whit Babcock, has the same role with the Bearcats.  We also know that Tuberville and the Red Raiders were not a perfect marriage.  Now let's see where the Bearcats end up if the Big East continues to disintegrate.  I give this hire only a "B" but not because I have any doubt that Tuberville can continue Cincinnati's recent level of success.  I am worried that the Babcock-Tuberville combination will approach the NCAA rulebook with SEC eyes.
Former Cincinnati coach Butch Jones is now at Tennessee where the fans are longing for a return to the top 25.  Although patience is required with any new hire I am unsure how much Vols fans have after many years of mediocrity.  Tennessee is a tough job for one main reason.  While the expectations are tremendously high, the state does not have enough in-house talent to use as a base for the building of a championship squad.  Forget the SEC West, the powers that be in the East, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida, all have a lot more local talent than Tennessee.  So Tennessee has to recruit well and it is hard to grade Jones on that (although it will be crucial that he still mines his Ohio contacts).  Right now it is a "C+" but only because I cannot image Tennessee beating conference powers with Jones at the helm.  But he is the best hire for the job because it is not as good a job as people think.
The SEC had even more jobs open up this year and Kentucky earned a "B+" for its hire of Mark Stoops, who will have a core of young talent to work with and a lot less pressure than Jones.  Better than most Stoops understands expectations and the importance of relying on people you respect and trust.  Kentucky football will never supersede the basketball program but Stoops should make it relevant again.
I am less excited about Auburn's hiring of Gus Malzahn as its head coach although the Tigers were hampered by the huge amount of money paid to the previous staff as they walked out the door, the expected sanctions coming soon from the NCAA and a fan base that refuses to take second fiddle to Alabama.  Sure the offense will fling the ball all over the place--and I love the hiring of Ellis Johnson as DC--but this Tigers situation will be unable to overcomes those hurdles and expectations.  This one is a "B-" as they really could have done a lot worse.
A hire I really like is that of Mike MacIntyre by Colorado.  Yes MacIntyre only had one good year at San Jose but considering he inherited a 2-10 squad and the program was thought of as lost, he did an outstanding job of building.  He will have to do the same in Boulder.  He gets a "B+".
So too Willie Taggert by USF.  Taggert will mine his Florida backyard and make the Bulls a tough team to beat no matter where they end up.
Two coaching hires that I will grade a "B" and will be looking at closely are Kliff Kingsbury at his alma mater Texas Tech and Dave Doeren at NC State.  Both are young guys who are taking over solid programs that were run by veterans.  They will need to win early to prove that they were worthy of the shot.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Today's Bowl Picks

There are bowl games today.  It's December 15. Crazy.
And I will watch most of it.  First up, kicking off in the morning out in Albuquerque, is the New Mexico Bowl with an interesting offensive match-up between Arizona and Nevada.  Both teams will score a lot of points, especially with the game being played so early in December as neither D will have a full month to prepare, and I love getting 9 or so with a Pack squad that could win outright.  Nevada Jr Stephon Jefferson has rushed for 1,703y as the featured back in coach Chris Ault's pistol O.  QB Cody Fajardo had a fine season at the helm of the O, rushing for 2,530y and rushing for 981y.  He has four different receivers with at least 40 catches as the Pack will keep Arizona guessing. Nevada's D struggled in November and needs to build off a solid second half performance in their final game loss to Boise State.  As for Arizona, they too need to score to win as their young D struggled down the stretch.  They actually have the leading rusher entering the game as Ka'Diem Carey totalled 1,757y on the ground, good for second nationally to Jefferson's 4th standing.  He is the national leader with 146y per game and rushed for 20 TDs.  Senior QB Matt Scott provides the aerial attack for Arizona, passing for 3,238y and 24 TDs.  As I said the offenses will score.  Which d will show up?
The pick: Nevada +8
The other game, The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, is notable for the presence of a very good Utah State squad, who should handle a banged up Toledo unit.  The Aggies may very well be the best non BCS team in the nation after going 6-0 in a competitive WAC.  They are 10-2, with a 2-pt loss at Wisconsin and a 3-pt loss at BYU as their only blemishes.  They may be disappointed to be playing on 12/15 but should be inspired to beat a Toledo squad who did well in the MAC conference that claimed the BCS spot. The Aggies D is stout and QB Chuckie Keeton threw for 3,144y and 27 TDs and RB Kerwynn Williams rushed for 1,277y.  The Rockets were hot through mid-season, winning 8 straight, but then lost their final two to lose a shot at the conference crown.  Their chances may hinge on the availability of QB Terrance Owens and RB David Fluellen, who were both hobbled with ankle injuries at season's end. They do have star WR Bernard Reedy ready to go after a regular season in which he caught 82 balls for 1,051y.  The key for the Rockets may be if Toledo's QB, either Owens or sub Austin Dantin, have the time to exploit Reedy against a terrific Utah State pass rush.
Pick: Utah State -10.5

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Heisman Pick

This is a compelling Heisman race this year as there are so many ways a voter can go and be justified.  I am not one who views the award as a player of the year and put a great deal of emphasis on character and leadership.  I also feel that a player's overall body work can break a tie between an upperclassman and a younger player.  I have no problem with defensive players winning the award and would vote for players from any region.  I also watch so much college football that I could care less about a guy having a "Heisman Moment" whatever that is.
And so I would vote for Te'o.  He has everything I would look for in a candidate as he is as good as it gets in the character and leadership departments and is a brilliant backer.  He played well against a tough schedule and also did so for four full years.
I do not have a problem with Manziel being a first-year player but when his opposition has had a Hall of Fame career, he is at a disadvantage.  My main problem with Manziel is that his statistical advantage is not truly legit.  His offensive system produces more plays than the average team and the defenses he has faced this year have been mediocre at best apart from the defenses that had success against him (LSU, Florida 2nd half and Alabama 2nd half).  His top five passing games were against Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Mississippi State and SMU.  And his best rushing efforts were against La Tech, Mississippi, Miss State, SMU and Arkansas.  He threw 44 passes in their final game against Missouri, a game that they won by 30.  He threw 38 times against Arkansas despite A&M ultimately winning that game by 48.  I really like Manziel, but enough already with system QBs.

Army Versus Navy

The 113th edition of the Army-Navy game is upon us, which of course, means that another great college football regular season has drawn to a close.  But for those dealing with burnout or planning ahead to bowl games, please do yourself a favor and watch the game.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Bruce Smith

I am watching a great piece on Minnesota legend Bruce Smith on ESPN's OTL.  A tape of Smith's Heisman speech has come to light recently and it forms the centerpiece of the segment.  Smith, winning the award two days after Pearl Harbor, speaks eloquently of how America had changed two days prior and how his generation had a new challenge.  Great stuff and the young player's ability to touch on the sensitive subject shows just how more mature 21-year-olds were then compared to now.  Smith was soon in the Navy, while his 1939 predecessor, Nile Kinnick, would end up dying on a training flight less than two years later.  Smith would come home from the war although he died too young in 1967 from cancer.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

New Hall of Fame Class

Jonathan Ogden is a big dude.  Big.  Nice guy too.  But he is big.  He dwarfed guys like Dave Casper, guys that we normally think of as large.
But what is funny about annually attending the National Football Foundation's press conference introducing the latest class of college hall of famers, which took place yesterday at the Waldorf Astoria, is that physically imposing players like Ogden are the rarities.  Most of the guys look like guys off the street, although of course it is not always easy to see "speed" if the main weapon the player used to gain consensus All American status was his ability to race by others.  The reality is that the majority of hall of famers are not the five star guys but the guys with the biggest heart (who also had talent, work ethic, coaching, etc).
The new hall of famer I interviewed the longest yesterday, Mark Simoneau, the great linebacker from Kansas State, epitomizes all of that.  Not a large guy, Simoneau's physical presence these days does not scream starting linebacker let alone consensus All American or long-time NFL veteran.  And not surprisingly he was not a big-time recruit out of Smith Center High School in Kansas.  Fortunately for him the one Division One program coming after him, Kansas State, was a perfect fit.  He had the talent, work ethic and chip on his shoulder after being overlooked by others and they supplied outstanding coaching and an opportunity to play right away.  He became a four-year starter, averaging exactly 100 tackles per season, for a Wildcats team that won 42 games.  And Simoneau can relate to today's Cats as his '98 team was 11-0 and one win away from a spot in the BCS title game before being upset by Texas A&M 36-33.  Although his NFL career was less heralded, he did play for close to a decade and did lead the Eagles in tackles in 2003.
I also talked for a bit with Steve Bartkowski, who definitely has the former pro-player-now-more-comfortable-on-the-golf-course look.  We laughed about how the game has changed where he could be an All America and future Hall of Famer based on throwing for 2,508y as a senior in 1974.  That is the target total for mid-season for some of the new guys.  We discussed the Falcons for a bit too and he is more active with them due to living in Georgia, although he looks forward to being active with the Hall of Fame in 2014 when it finally moves to Atlanta.  We also discussed Christmas shopping for our kids, but I won't bore you with that.
My other interview was with former Texas Tech defensive tackle Gabe Rivera, who is the rare player of Latin heritage honored for football.  Rivera is, of course, one of the poster children for wasted talent as his drunk driving accident in 1983, his rookie year with the Steelers, has kept him in a wheelchair ever since.  But this honor rightfully refocuses the attention on Rivera from what might have been to what was a truly excellent college football career.  Interior defensive lineman back in Rivera's day were known for speed while today's nose guards are behemoths.  "Senor Smoke" was both and occasionally unstoppable. He also is a proud San Antonio native and we discussed how unbelievable it is that of the 14 former players honored yesterday, four are from Alamo City.  Rivera, Scott Thomas, who was a star safety for Air Force in the 1980s, Ty Detmer, the former Heisman winner from BYU and ex Rice star QB Tommy Kramer are all products of San Antonio high schools. That is amazing.
I did not have a chance to talk to the others, Charles Alexander, Otis Armstrong, Hal Bedsole, Casper, Detmer, Kramer, Art Monk, Greg Myers, Ogden, Thomas, John Wooten and coaches Phil Fulmer, Jimmy Johnson, and R.C. Slocum. Congratulations also to the current players honored for their ability to do well in school and in the classroom and as volunteers.  All in all it was a great morning.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Lots to Say

I must admit that I never quite trusted Georgia last night.  Sure, they played very well for most of the game and they certainly deserved a better outcome.  And, no, I wouldn't give coach Richt shit at the press conference.  Perhaps the LSU game was still fresh in my--in all of our--memories.  Alabama was going to rally and there really wasn't anything that Georgia was going to do about it.  They did string it out to the very end and who knows what would have happened if that last pass was not tipped.  But it was tipped.  It was always going to be tipped.  Georgia was trying to win the bout on points.  You have to knock out the champ.
And now we wait.  All of the build up from August until today leads to a match-up that will attract a huge audience....more than a month from now.  Sure there is more college football from now until then, from Army-Navy through the Beef "O" Brady's Bowl to the Rose Bowl.  And I will watch way too much of it.  But the wait does suck.
But how can I complain compared to the kids on the Louisiana Tech squad?  9-3, with each loss to a bowl team including the crazy 59-57 near upset of "mighty" Texas A&M and the memorable game against eventual WAC champs Utah State that went into OT, and they will stay home this post-season.  Ironically they ended up being screwed by--well their AD--but also the inclusion of MAC champ Northern Illinois in the BCS which sent dominoes flying downward beginning with Oklahoma (whose BCS spot was lost which is fitting as their loss to Boise in January of 2007 is item A in the case for non BCS teams getting BCS bowl berths).  No matter who is to blame it is a real shame that we cannot watch La Tech play La-Monroe in Shreveport.  That would have been fun.
It's 1am here so i'll sign off for now but break down the best bowl games tomorrow.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Today's Picks

I enjoyed the games last night and hope today delivers something similar.  For today I like Georgia +8, Conn +4, TCU +6, Texas +11, Nevada +8, FSU -14, Wisconsin +3.  Too many dogs?
Meanwhile my luck continues as my high school Bergen Catholic beat nemesis Don Bosco is state semis last night.  Go Crusaders!