Big 12 Update

With the Big 12 neatly divided between five haves, four of whom are ranked with the other (Texas) knocking on the door, and five have nots, all of whom sport losing records, there is usually at least one compelling match-up each week. With Baylor and Oklahoma off this week preparing for each other, and Texas facing a poor Kansas team, we have one game to watch Saturday in Texas Tech-Oklahoma State. Basically a conference title elimination game, this match-up will send the loser into fifth place with two losses and time running out. While both teams have had good seasons they are not without flaws. Texas Tech turns the ball over like a basement-level team and commits too many penalties. They also can become too pass happy. Okie State has had surprisingly poor QB play and has been mediocre to poor road team over the past couple of seasons. Since crushing the Red Raiders in Lubbock in 2011, 66-6, the Cowboys are 3-6 on the road with wins against KU, Texas-San Antonio and Iowa State. I like the Red Raiders slightly but will probably pass.

Big Ten Update

Unless something very odd happens, all of the championship intrigue in the Big Ten from now until November 30 will be centered on the Legends Division. Ohio State has and will continue to put a stranglehold on the Leaders Division. The next three opponents for the Buckeyes are Purdue, Illinois and Indiana. The games need to be played but I am not expecting miracles. Michigan State has the same 4-0 conference mark as OSU but they have a much tougher road to hoe to clinch the Legends. Sparty has a huge game Saturday hosting Michigan and then has to play at Nebraska and at Northwestern before a home game against Minnesota. Those games are all winnable but since the teams are all inconsistent it is hard to sort out the type of games remaining for MSU. Taken as a group, there is enough competition for a cumulative sense of worry. Still if they win Saturday it is hard to see anyone else making a move on them. And even if they lose to the Wolverines, they would still have an advantage over their rivals who still would have to play OSU. As for everyone else, there are some very good games remaining. Is 6-2 Minnesota, winners of two straight as they are inspired by their head coach Jerry Kill, legit? If they take care of business Saturday at Indiana and then beat Penn State next weekend, they would be playing rival Wisconsin on November 23 for a ranking and possible January bowl game. Can Nebraska turn it around? That is funny to say for a 5-2 team, but they have yet to beat a guaranteed bowl team and have a tough schedule the rest of the way. Iowa? Wisconsin? Penn State? Can anyone make a run at a nice season. Can Northwestern halt their awful slide?

Today's Picks

I am 3-0 this week and will ride the hot streak this afternoon. I like: Georgia Tech -10 UCF -24 Ball State -10 Houston +7 BC +7 Clemson -14 Va Tech -13 Navy +5 SMU -12 Vandy+18 Tenn +28 Oregon -23 Kansas State -11 Stan -4 No Texas -11 La Tech -5 Mizzou -2 Bay -35 Good luck

American Athletic Conference Update

The cleaning up of the AAC standings continues this weekend as the number of teams tied for first in the standings, currently at three with Central Florida, Houston and South Florida all 2-0, should be shrunk to two or even one.  And standing in line awaiting slipups from any of the top three are one-loss teams like Louisville and Rutgers who still aim to rise to the top of the standings.
UCF is, of course, in the driver's seat having beaten Louisville on the road.  They have six conference games remaining, four at home and they will be favored in the road games against Temple and SMU who are a combined 3-10.  The Knights should have no problem upping their conference mark to 3-0 Saturday versus winless UConn.
Houston's path is tougher, both Saturday at Rutgers and for the rest of the season.  Saturday is a must win as the Cougars still must play at Louisville and at UCF.  Realistically they are playing for a decent bowl bid but as long as there is a zero in the conference loss category they have a shot for the whole prize.  This will be the toughest road test for Houston, to date, and its true freshman QB
John O'Korn.  But O'Korn has a veteran's swagger, honed by playing big-time high school football at Thomas Aquinas in Fort Lauderdale.  And Rutgers has been having secondary issues all season--what was never a strength has gotten worse through attrition--and that will be a problem against Houston's passing attack.  The Houston defense, however, is fresh off allowing 681y to BYU so the Scarlet Knights will be moving the ball too.  Expect a high scoring affair (61.5 over/under) that is decided in the 4th quarter.
As for South Florida, well its 2-0 conference mark is belied by an 0-4 out of conference record.  Can they continue to win AAC games?  Hosting a mad Louisville team is probably not the best way to continue the season reversal.  For Louisville, the squad has to remain focused on games at hand and forget about rankings, BCS bids and Heismans.  They are off the radar and must take care of business against desperate teams like the Bulls.  For Saturday they must keep the pass rush off of Teddy Bridgewater and not let the home team hang around.  If not they will repeat last year's mistake of following their first loss, late at Syracuse, by being stunned at home to UConn for loss number two.
Things should be a bit clearer in the AAC come Sunday, although if anyone can catch UCF until they host Houston on November 9.

Today's Picks

I have run 55-45 for the season and even I can do that math.  55%.  Mediocre for sure but ready to move up from here.
Tonight I am going with the Mississippi State-Kentucky under 55.5 and Middle Tennessee getting 10.  I also like BYU giving 7 tomorrow.  Good luck.

Miami Sanctions

What can you say? At least it was something, although perhaps nothing at all would have been better.  Because then we could blow up the whole system and start all over.  Do what baseball did in the 1920s after the gambling scandals (not that I am a Judge Landis fan) and give supreme power to someone outside the system and above all of the b.s.  But that will never happen.  Baseball took back that power and the colleges would rather have less scrutiny from an outside body, not more.
As for whether or not Miami has suffered because of the way the NCAA handled the investigation, I personally feel that that sentiment has been overblown.  Being that Miami has been on probation before they should have been hammered for these accusations.  Losing two mediocre bowl bids and having to wait for their punishment are not bad enough to equal the crime. 
And there is one more thing.  For some reason the personal motives of the main accuser is somehow a problem in this case.  Is Shapiro a creep?  Yes.  But that is true of most people buying players and if we throw out the testimony and evidence from creeps we will have a tough time nailing anyone.  And he was a creep when Miami was taking his checks so that administration should go away too.
I also am tired of other fans bitching because they were hit hard with sanctions--and yes I am talking to you USC fans and even those from OSU--when they were caught cheating and deserve to pay.  While I agree that it is easy to be frustrated with how Southern programs seem to get away with things, the reality is that you paid a fair punishment for crimes committed, so shut up and get on with life.  And instead of bitching, change how things are done.  Don't get caught and get punished and then go and hire coaches who have seemingly gotten away with cheating themselves all while crying about your sanctions.

College Football Turned Upside Down--Or Was It?

When I saw the lousy job pollsters did with their voting this week I remembered a conversation on ESPN Friday that centered on how bad Miami looked and that they were too high as the 10th-11th-ranked team in the country.  Then Saturday happened and voila, Miami is 6th in one poll, 7th in the other.  The lesson of course is that it is not how bad you look as long as you win.
Which leads me to how "crazy" Saturday was supposed to have been with so many top 25 and specifically top 10 teams losing.  But for me Saturday was just a correction in which overrated teams that were highly ranked because of won-loss records based more on bad opponents than quality of team in question were shown to be fakers.  But again they were frauds based on faulty evaluation.  LSU came into the season with a question mark due to the incredible amount of talent that left the program after last season.  They then open the season with wins over TCU, UAB, Kent State and Auburn.  Not bad.  More significantly the team's once pedestrian--and I am being kind--offense looked recharged and downright good.  So the pundits started to project a typically strong Tiger defense with a good offense....World Beater.  Then the team went on the road (they did beat TCU on a neutral field) and dropped two games to teams that are not even ranked at the moment.  LSU is lucky to be ranked 13th and that is based more on reputation than results.
Then again, someone has to be ranked.  UCLA?  They were undefeated and top ten but again were they worthy?  Yes they beat Nebraska on the road but that was two weeks after Wyoming scorched the Huskers for 602y.  The other Bruin wins?  Nevada, New Mexico State, Utah and Cal.  Those teams are a combined 8-20.
There is more of this and while weekends like this past one do punish programs for being over-ranked--hello Florida and Georgia--they do not come soon enough to properly affect the BCS rankings.  But there is plenty of football to be played and I will not get too upset....yet.

Today's Picks

I am currently 42-35 and must do a better job of telling you about winners before they win.  But anyway here goes:
Northwestern -12.5
Purdue +28
SMU-Memphis over 47
South Carolina -7
Texas Tech-West Virginia over 57
Wyoming -7
UConn +15
TCU +7.5
Mizzou +3
Cuse +7.5
Duke +3
Auburn-A&M over 72
Iowa +18
North Texas-4
Houston +10
OU-23
Stanford-5
Stanford-UCLA under 54
ISU +33
ND -3
Clemson +3
Illini +14.5
Washington State +40
Good luck

American Athletic Conference Update

Well here it is, apparently, the season comes down to one game tonight between Louisville and Central Florida.  A conference title and BCS berth is on the line tonight, or so the media tells us.  don't get me wrong.  These two teams are playing much better than the rest of the conference but nothing will be determined tonight because it is only October 18.  Heck the loser of this game is going to wake up in the middle of the pack in this bastard child of a conference.
Okay so I have gotten that off my chest.  Despite a ridiculously high 2-TD spread tonight's game should be a very good one.  Rutgers did a lot of good against Louisville and if they had even fair-to-good QB play could have upset the Cardinals.  Louisville can play better than they showed, and should get back key WR DeVante Parker from injury.  But UCF is confident and eager to prove to the country that they are an up-and-coming college football program.  Take the points and the over!
Houston will remained undefeated in the conference because, well, they play non-member BYU.  Houston is oddly undefeated on the season but has played an absurdly easy schedule and will need to beat BYU and a few more teams before they can make a name for themselves.  BYU's secondary is bad enough that the other Cougars do have a legit chance.
There is not much else going on the AAC but then again even if there was there would not be too much attention paid.

ACC Update

The attention this weekend in the ACC, justifiably, is centered on the huge game between Clemson and Florida State.  That one should be a good one although only if both teams display the newly re-discovered abilities to, well, not play below their high talent levels.  The loser of Saturday night's game may not be too thrilled that the winner has figured out the not choking thing but hey if you want the national attention to come the ACC's way you do need as many good to great teams as possible.
Which brings us to the rest of the conference.  Thanks to the seasons Clemson and FSU have enjoyed Miami has slid somewhat under the radar.  That seems odd being that it is Miami and they have their SEC pelt in Florida.  But the bulk of the Canes' work in conference still needs to be done, headlined by the back-to-back games in November against FSU and Virginia Tech.  They will have to hold serve tonight at North Carolina in what will be their first real road test of the season (with all apologies to South Florida).  The Tar Heels have been major disappointments but could earn back some swagger tonight.
Virginia Tech sits at 3-0 in conference and is off this weekend.  They also do not play both FSU and Clemson, which puts more pressure on fellow Coastal member Miami.
The others are all jockeying for bowl position or hoping, like UNC, to turn their season around.  Maryland-Wake, Duke-Virginia and Syracuse-Tech all have potential to be good games.

Conference Levels Closer Than Advertised

This weekend's upsets by Missouri at Georgia and Utah over Stanford highlight a reality that the media has largely struggled with--that after a few dominant teams the rest of the country features a great deal of parity and that conference levels are fairly even.  Missouri has a rich football tradition but its history featured a great deal of ebb and flow.  Under coach Gary Pinkel, now in his 13th year in Columbia, the Tigers have become a solid program with some glimpses of excellence especially in 2007 when they finished 12-2 and flirted with a spot in the BCS title game.  But being that they were a Big 12 school entering the mighty SEC last season they were not expected to do too much.  It was expected that their offense would struggle against the faster SEC defenses.  And when they finished 5-7 last year they were confined to the national silence that surrounds the mediocre (they were held as proof of SEC superiority while fellow Big 12 transplant was considered an aberration due to one player's talent).  But now they sit at 6-0, 2-0 in conference.  They have lost QB James Franklin to injury but both of their next two opponents, Florida and South Carolina, have been dealing with injuries at that position.  Either way Mizzou have proved that they can be an excellent team no matter the conference.
Utah moved to what is now the Pac 12 after a lifetime spent outside the bigger conferences, most recently as a power in the Mountain West.  They are not having as successful a 2013 season as Missouri but at 4-2 they are doing well and are looking up as a key conference power under coach Kyle Whittingham.  While Whittingham would admit that he had to get bigger and faster to compete against the likes of Stanford and Oregon, he had a squad in place to make the transition easier than fellow transplant Colorado who needed to completely rebuild.  Utah is a good football program and that can translate to any conference.
Have I cherry-picked two squads to prove a point?  Well, yes.  But remember Texas A&M has already proved that switching from the Big 12 to the SEC can look easier than expected.  And the fact that Colorado, a former Big 12 school, continues to struggle in the Pac 12 while the MWC member Utah does better highlights that we cannot judge programs solely on their conference affiliation.

Today's Picks

Here we go, sitting at 36-28 on season (which is not good enough).
OU -11.5
IU +10
Va Tech -8
Texas Tech -14.5
Georgia -7
TCU -24.5
South Carolina -6
Northwestern +10
Washington +13
Fla Atlantic +10
Utah +8 (just a hunch)
Enjoy

SEC Update

It has been a strange season for the SEC.  Is it still the preeminent conference?  Yes.  Does the nation's best team still reside there?  Yes.  Is it a conference packed with superstars and top coaches?  Yes.
But something is amiss.  The player currently receiving the most press--and he is arguably the finest player in the conference--is none other than Jadeveon Clowney of South Carolina.  There is not much more to say about his situation, one in which everyone seems to be at fault, but there are enough great players performing well that are not getting the headlines he is getting for not playing.  And at 4-1 the Gamecocks are still very much alive in the SEC East race (although Georgia had better start losing soon) and yet the biggest story in the aftermath of Clowney's opting out of the Kentucky game is whether his actions hurt not the Gamecocks but his draft stock.
But there is more.  Johnny Manziel's off-field excitement has long overshadowed the play of the Aggies on the field while the coverage of the LSU season has focused on stud RB Jeremy Hill's transgressions and what role coach Les Miles played in the sordid mess at Oklahoma State.  And there have been accusations and rumors about a number of other SEC programs and the ways they may have broken rules over the years.
And there is another reality, one that may be hard to overcome.  A few years ago the conference was honored for its strong play as evidenced by the number of recent winners of national championships (LSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn).  That streak of course continues but one program has pulled away from the others and Alabama's dominance threatens to deflate the merits of the others.  And so while there have been some exciting games involving SEC teams this year there is also a sense that anything these teams do does not matter in the end because Alabama will win anyway.  And even those teams that beat Alabama, like LSU two years ago and A&M last year, cannot truly stop the Tide steamroller--and Bama avenges those losses soon enough.
But we will not play that game here.  Alabama will probably not lose the "Bear Bryant Bowl" to Kentucky this weekend, but they have not won the 2013 SEC and national titles yet.  And as for the rest of the league, the big games this weekend are Georgia hosting upstart Missouri, Florida traveling to LSU and Texas A&M tangling with Mississippi.  Should be fun.

Fordham Beats Lehigh

The 2013 edition of the Fordham Rams have apparently decided that the best way to honor the 100th birthday of former Ram guard Vince Lombardi--who started during the glorious heyday of Fordham football in the 1930s--was to win all their games.  They have played six so far and run the table despite facing their toughest competition during the season's first half (Villanova, Temple, Lehigh).  Saturday's game, played before a second straight sellout crowd, pitted the Rams, just two years removed from a disastrous 1-10 record, against a Lehigh club favored to win a Patriot League crown the Rams are ineligible to win due to four full classes of scholarship players to two and counting for rest of the league.  Both teams were undefeated and ranked and the game did not disappoint--well Ram fans anyway.  Fordham ended up winning 52-34 but score would have been a lot tighter without huge plays that all came through for home team.  Both teams featured star QBs and with Fordham's Michael Nebrich, a UConn transfer, leading team to win with brilliant play (26-36/384y, 4 TDs) he is in drivers seat for conference player of the year over Lehigh's Brandon Bialkowski (28-46/324y, 3 TDs, INT).  Fordham, gaining 630y Saturday, is difficult to defend as Nebrich is a two-way threat, passing for 1761y on season with 16TDs, to only 1 INT while rushing for 342y.  He has a star RB in senior Carlton Koonce, who averages 125y rushing a game, for balance and three dynamic receivers in Sam Ajala, Brian Wetzel and Tebucky Jones.  Ajala was the star on Saturday with 7 catches for166y and 3 TDs.  Wetzel is not only a brilliant receiver but a stud punt returner.  He is also my daughter's favorite player.
Can Fordham keep this up?  Why not.  Most of their remaining opponents are overmatched and Fordham is inspired by having to earn an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs.  While they can never bring back the excitement of the Lombardi era they can increase the local excitement for college ball.  It will be fun finding out.

Today's Picks

Today's big game, of course, is in the Bronx as Fordham hosts Lehigh (both undefeated and ranked).  the pick there is my Rams as they are ineligible for the conference title--having four full classes of scholarship players while the others do not--and will use this game as their championship, or at least early October championship.  Watch at noon on CBS Sports.
Anyway, on to the games you can actually make a wager on.  I am 29-21and looking for bear.
Iowa -1.5 hosting MSU.  Should be a field position game with Hawkeyes winning close one.
Temple +33 hosting Louisville.  Cards looking ahead to Rutgers and UCF.
SMU +4 hosting Rutgers.  Coming off big win against Arkansas and with Louisville looming for RU.
Ball State +4 at UVA. Either team can win so I'll gladly take 4.
Maryland +17 at FSU. Terps have come a long way since august but do have a lot of young talent.
Clemson -14 at Cuse.  Tigers have become very good on road and outclass game Orange.
Texas Tech -17 at KU.  Could get ugly.
Army +12 at BC. Saw this one live last year and BC still can't stop run.
Miami -6 vs Georgia Tech.  Canes will win fifth straight in series.
Georgia -11 at Tenn.  Vols hang tough early but Bulldogs pull away.
Arkansas +12 at Florida.  Just not buying Gators.
Okie State-14 hosting KSU. Someone needs to pay.
TCU +9 at OU. If you have to play OU, this is the week to do it.
Northwestern +7 hosting OSU. Buckeyes will believe after this one.
Good luck

Tonight's Picks

I sit at 28-20 on the season and have two picks for tonight as I aim for 10 games over .500.

Take Texas -7.5 against ISU and UCLA -6.5 at Utah.  Both favorites will dominate on defense.