Quick Picks

Off to do some winter sports poorly, so here are some teams I like for games to be played today and tomorrow. I like UCLA and Miami today and Idaho and Nebraska tomorrow. Hopefully I will be able to weigh in on the rest from the road.

Coaching Crazies

Are the lunatics running the asylum? With reports out of Lubbock that Texas Tech has suspended head coach Mike Leach one game for his odd treatment of a concussed player--who it turns out is the son of Craig James!?!?!-on the heels of the continued saga of Florida coach Urban Meyer, it is clear that huge paychecks are no guarantee of the sanity of football coaches.
The Leach situation is turning ugly fast as the coach is undertaking a legal fight to return to the sideline for the upcoming Alamo Bowl, while Tech is investigating the matter. Leach and the university have come to odds before, mostly about money, and then at midseason this season Texas Tech was probably uncomfortable with Leach's odd tirade blaming his team's lack of focus after a loss to Texas A&M on his players' "fat, little girlfriends."
Meyer's retirement, then limited about-face, seemed to come out of nowhere. There is clearly a great deal of pressure attached to a program that was once desperate to win an SEC title and now expects to compete annually for national titles. But saying that you are quitting because of illness and a desire to spend more time with your family and then changing your tune soon after because your team had a spirited practice is beyond belief. What is the truth? This is nuts.
Forget the excitement on the field over the next few days, the real intrigue in college football is now centered on that wacky band of coaches. Who will be the next to put his foot in his mouth or into the backside of a player?

View From Bennett Avenue

The news from Gainesville regarding Urban Meyer's retirement yesterday was stunning. He had built an empire of sorts there and seemed to be ready to compete for SEC titles and national championships for years to come.

Now, he had been hospitalized after the recent SEC championship game, but that seemed to be a warning sign for him personally and it was not made out to be a big deal at the time. The college football world had more to focus on that week with the craziness at the end of the Big 12 title game and with the then upcoming Heisman vote. Meyer is a young man, with great ambitions as a football coach. If he was not going to pursue the Notre Dame job, which he had recently labelled his "dream job," then it seemed that he would be patrolling the sidelines at Florida for many more successful seasons.

Hopefully he is making this decision for all of the right reasons--that he does want to spend more time with his family and wants to do so for a long time and in better health. To be successful at college coaching is incredibly taxing and it would have been hard to imagine that Meyer could have remained so driven for another 20-30 years.

I must admit that as someone who respects Meyer as a coach but does not like some of his ways--the numerous player arrests, the fights with other coaches, the "poaching" of other teams' recruits, the current allegations of playing favorites among players, etc--I was looking forward to his coaching effort next season when he had to replace one of the most valuable players in college football history in Tim Tebow and break in a new D coordinator and coach a squad with a host of first-time starters. Next season would have been a great challenge to Meyer, but perhaps the thought of that was too much to take for someone who has grown used to double-digit wins each year.

The person who came to mind for me almost immediately when I heard the news about Meyer was Frank Leahy. They are both about the same age when they left a demanding coaching job and each had similar levels of success. Leahy won 107 games in 13 seasons at both Boston College and Notre Dame. Meyer has won 95 games in nine seasons at three stops. Leahy won four national titles; Meyer two, but he could have tied the Hall of Famer in a few years. Both coaches cited health reasons when departing, although Leahy would later say that he felt unwanted by a Notre Dame administration that then felt that football was getting too big. Leahy would never return to a college football sideline. Let's see what happens to the talented and driven Meyer.

By the way, I like Kentucky and the points tonight against Clemson.

Bowl Angst

Ahhhh, just my luck. I had hoped to pick Utah in tonight's Poinsettia Bowl but returned to my computer in the 2nd Q after a day with the family. So, of course, Utah looks great and I cannot take credit for it. Of course, now that I am mentioning my fondness for Utah, Cal will rally and I'll look bad again.
Meanwhile, if the score holds up then all five bowl games played to date this year will have featured the game's winner covering the spread. Four of the games have been won outright by dogs--if the Utes hold on--and the one favorite to win so far, Rutgers, covered in doing so. That's due to change soon, although I do like SMU, the underdog, tomorrow out in Hawaii. The spread is way too high and Nevada is missing a host of key players through either injury or suspension.

View From Bennett Avenue

What did I say to BYU LB Matt Bauman at the NFF breakfast earlier this month to inspire him to greatness last night? Bauman, who is pictured receiving his honor for academic prowess, helped lead the Cougars to the big win in Las Vegas by scoring the game's second TD on a 34y return of a fumble. He was also the team leader with nine tackles as BYU stopped the Beavers in their tracks. But what could I have said to him that helped him play so well? We discussed his balancing of school work, athletics and marriage. We talked about his mission, which was to Pennsylvania, and how that helped shape his life. BYU players seem a bit sensitive to the talk of how the maturity of their players due to their mission work is such an advantage on the football field and he mentioned that it takes a bit of time to get back into football shape and that the older layers are more likely to get injured. But I do not think that any of that discussion helped him yesterday. I did show some good moves in getting to the bar for a drink later that morning. He must have been watching.

Las Vegas Bowl

I had the great pleasure of meeting Matt Bauman, BYU (10-2) LB, recently at a National Football Foundation breakfast honoring both the incoming Hall of Fame class and top student-athletes like Bauman. A three-year starter, Matt has one more meaningful football game to play, the Las Vegas Bowl against Oregon State (8-4), before going to business school. He is waiting to hear from Stanford and Harvard.

I enjoyed speaking to Bauman, who is intelligent yet humble. He is proud of his team's success during his time there, although he is a bit disappointed with how the season played out. So even though this is the program's fifth straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl, they are hungry to prove to the nation that they are a top team.

Despite his obvious talents, however, I, for the life of me, cannot imagine him capable of stopping Beavers RB Jacquizz Rodgers and the rest of the speedy Beavers. But Bauman and the Cougars D have confounded the experts before, as they did to open this season when shutting down the explosive Oklahoma O. But Oklahoma's offensive line was not ready for that one, and the Sooners' overall offense was not sharp in the first half of the season. The Beavers, meanwhile, are as fine-tuned at season's end as usual, scoring 31, 48, 42 and 33 pts in their final four games. QB Sean Canfield(284-406/3103y) had a fine regular season and played very well in the bitter Civil War loss to Oregon. Although the Beavers were down after that one, they enter tonight on a five-game postseason win streak and should be fine.

Of course, as much as BYU will struggle trying to stop the OSU O, the Beavers D will have a difficult time stopping sr QB Max Hall (pictured in last season's Las Vegas Bowl loss to Arizona) and the BYU O. Like Oregon State, the Cougars feature an experienced sr QB, in Hall (256-379/3368y), a 1,000y rusher in Harvey Unga (184/1016y) and a talented receiving target in TE Dennis Pitta (57/784y), who needs only two receptions to became the all-time leader in that category for TEs with 218 for his career. A balanced, dynamic offense is a main reason the Cougars have won 10 or more games for four straight seasons, joining Boise State, Ohio State and Texas as the only FBS teams to accomplish that feat.

The first bowl match-up of top 25 teams should be a barn-burner. Having praised the Pac 10 before, I will pick them to get win no. 1 in this postseason.

Pick: Oregon State 37 BYU 34.

New Orleans Bowl

With this game being played on an NFL Sunday, the few folks who would have cared may be footballed out by tonight's kickoff. The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles are the big boys in this match-up with Middle Tennessee, having won 7 games against a tougher schedule. The Golden Eagles feature a sound defense and balanced offense, led by veteran RB Damion Fletcher and dynamic soph WR DeAndre Brown. The Golden Eagles scored 33 points per game this season. One factor that prevented Southern Miss from challenging for the Conference USA crown was the team's struggles away from home this season as they won only one game out of six played away from Hattiesburg.

Red hot Middle Tennessee, who enters the game riding a six-game win streak, is led by their defense which featured seven players who found themselves on the first or second team All Sun Belt team. DE Chris McCoy was co-defensive player of the year for his 20 tackles behind the line of scrimmage with seven sacks. McCoy was best against the bigger competition as he had a monster game in the team's win over Maryland (9 tackles, sack, FUM REC, blocked kick) and returned FUM 68y for TD against Clemson. On offense the Blue Raiders are led by QB Dwight Dasher (pictured), who passed for 2627y and 21 TDs and rushed for 953y and 9 TDs. He did throw 14 picks, however, and must keep the ball away from the Golden Eagles.

Southern Miss is favored tonight and is 3-0 lifetime in this bowl game. they are the pick, but in a close one against a hungry Blue Raider team enjoying their best year to date in FBS play.

Pick: Southern Miss 34 Middle Tennessee 31

Bowl Preview

The bowl season kicks off today with two under the radar games, the New Mexico Bowl pitting Fresno State and Wyoming and the St. Petersburg Bowl that set up Rutgers and Central Florida. What follows is a quick preview of the games with predictions:

The New Mexico Bowl does have one known commodity in Fresno State (8-4), who is making its 10th post-season appearance in past 11 seasons. Coach Pat Hill's Bulldogs played in this bowl a season ago, losing to Colorado State 40-35. This season's squad is led by RB Ryan Mathews, who led the nation with 151.27y rushing per game. Mathews rushed for 234y of his 1,664y season total against Boise State and will have no problem with Wyoming's rush D. Look for a monster game from the junior and then his announcement that he will turn pro. As for Wyoming (6-6), they are rebuilding with youth under new coach Dave Christensen and surprisingly made a bowl game with a .500 record. The Cowboys did not beat a FBS team with a winning record this year and will not do so today. The focus today for Wyoming will be on lessons learned as they get the bowl experience any young team needs while Fresno makes off with an easy win.

Pick: Fresno State 35 Wyoming 13

The St. Petersburg Bowl will feature two teams from the Sunshine State battling it out under the lights at Tropicana Field. Yeah, I know Rutgers is from my home state of New Jersey, but with so many recruits from Florida, the Scarlet Knights should feel very comfortable making this trip. But I like the other knights in this one, the Knights of Central Florida who are happier to be in a bowl game and have enough defense to contain the Scarlet Knights. The DE tandem of Jarvis Geathers (11 sacks) and Bruce Miller (pictured), the Conference USA defensive player of the year who had 12 sacks, will put pressure on frosh QB Tom Savage of RU and the UCF rush D, ranked 4th in the nation, will handle the Rutgers middling run game. With standout WR Tim Brown (51/1,051y) sidelined with a bum ankle, Rutgers is further limited on offense. I look for Rutgers's three-game bowl win snapped on late FG.

Pick: UCF 24 Rutgers 21

Chris Henry

Like many of you, I found out that Chris Henry died yesterday through reports from ESPN. Henry, a gifted and talented wide receiver, was perhaps known more for getting into trouble than playing football. After redshirting as a freshman at West Virginia, Henry burst on the scene in his first year of play in 2003 by catching 41 passes for 1,006y. He was named Big East freshman of the year and made second team all conference.

Due to many off-field transgressions, Henry's career really peaked that magical first year. In year two he was tossed from the Rutgers game for multiple unsportsmanlike penalties and suspended for the Pittsburgh game. He finished that season with 52 catches for 872y and then turned pro. Once in the NFL the arrests really began to pile up. You name the misdeed and chances are Henry was accused of it. With the troubles of Pacman Jones, a teammate at West Virginia, also making news, the program in Morgantown was starting to feel the heat. Was then-coach Rich Rodriguez bringing in any type of athlete in a pursuit of wins? Rodriguez later claimed that both athletes, each who turned pro early, would not have been welcomed back at West Virginia for the 2005 season. While it is hard to believe that Rodriguez, coming off of a four-loss season in 2004, really would not have taken back two talented players, we do not have evidence to the contrary.

Many of the football people closest to Henry mentioned that his death was particularly tragic as he had finally matured and started to turn his life around. That seems to be the case and yes his death is indeed sad. But as I watched the ridiculous documentary on the rise of Miami football in the '80s yesterday, I could not help but think of Henry. The filmmaker could not stop fawning over players that were an embarrassment to college football (it only took the NCAA 25 years to finally begin cracking down on the on-field celebrations that the Hurricanes took for granted in their day) and allowed virtually any wrongdoing to be excused away by their troubled pasts and that the school was giving an opportunity to underprivileged kids. But that opportunity comes with responsibility to get an education and represent your school in the best way possible. Many of these players do stay out of trouble and remain focused on becoming proper student-athletes. But those who do not should not be coddled and their crimes should not be tolerated. Nor should they be celebrated in a film years later as members of some wonderful dynasty that greatly changed football.

There is no excuse for Henry's past bad behavior and the multiple chances he was given were harmful to his victims--especially those who were allegedly hurt by Henry years after he got away with his first crimes. We should feel sad that he has died, especially in light of the three kids he leaves behind, but let's also learn that slaps on the wrist, by both football teams and law enforcement, are in no way the proper treatment for athletes like Henry as much for him as the community at large. And please ESPN, no more films that celebrate childish and sometimes criminal behavior by athletes. I guess that is my Christmas wish.

Big East Troubles

It has not been the greatest month for the conference, despite six of eight teams earning bowl bids. The headline team, Cincinnati, came shockingly close to securing a spot in the BCS championship game before settling for third place overall and a trip to the Sugar Bowl, where they will face an angry Florida team. They will do so without head coach Brian Kelly, the winner of the Home Depot Coach of the Year award, who has departed for his next gig. Kelly is now saying that he is unsure if he would have taken the Notre Dame job if Texas had lost in the Big 12 title game and the Bearcats were playing for the national title. Kelly's abandonment of the Bearcats has not gone over well in the "Queen City," although residents there were slow to respond to the coach's work building the program as Cincinnati football tickets were always pretty easy to get. At least until this year's historic, undefeated run.

The coaching situation at Cincinnati may be better than that at South Florida, where head man Jim Leavitt's 13-year run in Tampa has hit a major road bump. Special teams player Joel Miller, through his father, accused the coach on December 3 of grabbing him by the throat and hitting him twice in the face during halftime of the Louisville game on November 21. The Millers have since softened their story a bit, but the school is investigating the incident. Leavitt coached with Mark Mangino, who resigned from his position as head coach at Kansas after allegations of being verbally abusive of players, at Kansas State under Bill Snyder.

Today we were reminded that if and when the Big Ten expands to 12 teams, Rutgers is one of the targeted programs. Adding the Scarlet Knights will allow the conference to stake a claim into metropolitan New York City, while adding a program that will be competitive yet not tip the balance of power in the conference. Rutgers has improved their facilities and produced wins while graduating players and not having kids get arrested. The Big East would not want to lose an improved Scarlet Knights program, especially in light of stated desires to invite two more teams to the conference even if the Knights stay. Programs like Memphis and East Carolina are already under consideration, but the conference fears losing its identity if it has to bring in three new teams on top of the three schools--Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida--that came on board five years ago.

Good news? Well Louisville is pretty happy to have Charlie Strong join them as their new head coach. Strong's ability to coach defense and recruit are assets strongly in need with the Cardinals.

Remember When

While every Army-Navy game has great meaning, the ones played during time of war have extra poignancy. With the recent announcement that the number of troops committed to Afghanistan will increase, yesterday's game became important viewing.

Perhaps the most meaningful game in series history occurred in 1963. The Cold War was raging and the United States was about to increase its presence in one particular hot spot-Vietnam. Then the nation was stunned to learn that President John Kennedy (pictured before 1962 Army-Navy game) was shot and killed in Dallas one morning in late November. The Army-Navy game was played two weeks and a day later, one week after it was originally scheduled. Here is our recap from The USA Today Encyclopedia of College Football:

Navy 21 Army 15 (Philadelphia): Game was originally cancelled due to presidential assassination, but widow, Mrs. Jacqueline Kennedy, made special request that it be played. FB Pat Donnelly scored 3 TDs, last at end of 91y drive that gave Navy (9-1) 21-7 lead with less than 11 mins left and Tars appeared on their way to Cotton Bowl. But, unsung Army (7-3) QB Rollie Stichweh ignored his passing O and created all-infantry 52y TD march and added 2-pt run. Stichweh's TD run was shown by CBS as TV's 1^st-ever instant replay. Now back to live action: Stichweh immediately fell on K Dick Heydt's perfect on-side KO at Middies 49YL and Cadets were in business. After 5 meticulous runs and 11y pass to WB Don Parcells, Army used its last timeout with ball at 7YL and 1:38 left. After 2 runs to 4YL, and with 130,000 fans in uproar, ref called time to aid Army's signal-calling. Stichweh made mistake of re-huddling his team, while unaware clock was running. Cadets HB Ken Waldrop's plunge went to 2YL, but time expired with Stichweh hopelessly pleading for quiet so Army could run 4^th down play. No. 2 Navy won its 5^th in row over Army, but in barely surviving Middies might have left some of their zest for upcoming Cotton Bowl showdown with no. 1 Texas.

A Man Named Suh

How matters do change in a few days in college football.

As someone who feels the Heisman Trophy voters make a great selection about once every six years and a good selection about every other year, I was all set 10 days ago to rail on in great anger about the travesty that the nation's best player, Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, would in no way be considered for the award that singles out the best college football player in America.

All of a sudden, Suh nearly derailed Texas's trip to the BCS Championship Game all by himself, swatting aside double-team blockers as he has for two years and using Longhorns star quarterback Colt McCoy as a rag doll. The voters noticed.

Next, it was announced Suh actually would be invited as a Heisman finalist to the New York ceremony on Saturday evening. Apparently, voters made a difference by writing his name on a sufficient number of ballots.

Then, Heisman evaluators and predictors suggested that straw-polls might well have Suh showing the most first-place votes.

Then, Suh virtually swept the defensive awards on the ESPN show the other night.

Could a defensive tackle really shock the world and win the Heisman Trophy? Probably not. Too many numb-skull voters who don't truly understand the sport will continue to embrace the notion that no player could be the very best if they don't throw or carry the ball.

Wouldn't it be something if Suh could pull off the Heisman miracle? In my mind, he should win. Granted, Texas's McCoy has had a great year, but Suh seriously outplayed him on last week's national TV stage. Toby Gerhart of Stanford has been spectacular, but he was even less known at year's start than Suh. Mark Ingram of Alabama is plenty deserving as he is the best offensive player for the team currently at the top of the polls. Tim Tebow of Florida is probably the greatest four-year quarterback star in college history, but this season, a bit of juice seems to be missing. Two home run receiver threats from last year's Gators are missing, and his line failed to protect as well as in the last recent past. Tebow got hurt in mid-season, and simply wasn't quite the same.

Suh is the man! We'll see on Saturday night in what has suddenly evolved into one of the most fascinating Heisman Trophy presentations in history.

If he could win, Suh would be doing it for past lineman who should have prevailed: either Iowa tackle Alex Karras or Kentucky tackle Lou Michaels in 1957 and Pittsburgh linebacker Hugh Green in 1980.

This Week's Pick:

By the way, there is one game being played on Saturday. Navy is a 14-point favorite to win its eighth straight over rival Army. The Midshipmen likely will win. But, this Army team is much improved, especially on defense. Black Knight blocking for the option run attack is pretty pale, especially on outside pitchouts. But, the Army wants to turn the scales very badly. Since the Army Cadets want it more and their defense that will be ferocious, it tells me that Army +14 is solid. Pick: Army +14

--Bob Boyles

View From Bennett Avenue

Let me quickly weigh in on the Brian Kelly hire at Notre Dame since more than one of my readers mentioned a distaste for his not sticking around for the biggest bowl game in Cincinnati history.
Is it unfortunate? Yes. The Bearcats gave him their commitments and have practised and played hard all year. They have kept out of trouble, too. But a lesser coach would not have brought them to a potential no. 2 final ranking. And the pro contracts signed by some of these players may not have materialised.
Is it realistic to expect him to have stayed and either remained quiet about Notre Dame or been a coach of two different schools? Absolutely not. One of the best things Charlie Weis and his staff did was to attract talent, although the majority of the higher rated players played offense. His current class, which was still 7-8 guys short, could have collapsed without a coach in place ASAP. That is just the current situation, especially with the shark-like staffs currently working at USC, Florida and Tennessee, etc. Notre Dame waited for Weis five years ago and paid for it with the seniors who departed last year. Quick, name three.
There is too much money at stake for Kelly not to go immediately. Notre Dame football is a big business and when the school fails to see it that way--like hiring a high school coach--they pay for it. Since he is under increased pressure with the Irish, it is best that he begins working today. Plus, if he stuck it out for a month the rumors and questions would have been a distraction for his team. It is a sad day for Cincinnati football but all will be forgotten with a win over Florida.

College Football Performance Formula

2009 College Football Performance Formula
End of Regular Season: December 11

For most of the last month, TCU--now headed to the Fiesta Bowl--has held the no. 2 spot in our College Football Performance Formula, but when Alabama (previous no. 3 in the Formula) beat an undefeated team in Florida, the Crimson Tide jumped into the second spot in the Formula.

Texas, Alabama's opponent in the BCS Title Game, holds on to the Formula's top spot after its Big 12 title win over Nebraska. So, according to the College Football Performance Formula, the BCS got the match-up right.

If one goes strictly on the top 10 teams deserving slots in the five BCS bowls, then Virginia Tech at no. 9 and Penn State at no. 10 clearly were passed over. However, Georgia Tech (no. 12) won an automatic bid on the field by taking the Atlantic Coast Conference title from Clemson, while Iowa (no. 11) was tapped ahead of Penn State as the Big Ten's second BCS representative, primarily because of a head-to-head victory.

It is remarkable that the top eight teams will match up in BCS bowl games exactly as they performed in the formula.

Top 20 FBS schools in Performance Formula after games of December 5:

1. Texas 1.8187
2. Alabama 1.7894
3. TCU 1.7541
4. Boise State 1.7271
5. Florida 1.6785
6. Cincinnati 1.6678
7. Oregon 1.5781
8. Ohio State 1.5692
9. Virginia Tech 1.5300
10. Penn State 1.5113
11. Iowa 1.4727
12. Georgia Tech 1.4565
13. Louisiana State 1.4478
14. Pittsburgh 1.4280
15. Brigham Young 1.4232
16. Miami (Florida) 1.4025
17. Wisconsin 1.3783
18. Nebraska 1.3648
19. West Virginia 1.3644
20. Oklahoma State 1.3579

Bowl Bound

Yeah, I know. The bowl pairings were locked in a few days ago. But it is never too late to analyze the top match-ups nor complain about the total number of games on the docket this year and for the near future.

But let's first focus on the BCS title game, which will pit Alabama and Texas. With most everyone overrating what happened this past weekend, Alabama will be a decent favorite for the game. After all, Alabama looked very good in vanquishing Florida while Texas beat a solid-but-not-spectacular Nebraska squad by the slimmest of margins. But the Longhorns were bigger underdogs when they upset Southern California in January of 2006 and, overall, underdogs usually do well in this game. Another advantage for Texas is that defensive coordinator Will Muschamp knows Alabama coach Nich Saban very well from their days at LSU, although that, of course, cuts both ways. Another factor in the lack of love for Texas is that they do not have one signature win, in conference or out, this year. In 2005 they beat Ohio State on the road and faced a little bit better conference competition. We will continue to dissect this game as the weeks go by.

As far as the other BCS games, I would have preferred to see TCU and Cincinnati square off and have Boise take on Florida. Ohio State playing Oregon should be a nice game and since there is not much you can do with Georgia Tech and Iowa, it is better that they play in another Orange Bowl game that will draw little interest. From regular fans that is as I will happily watch the Hawkeyes and Yellow Jackets tangle. It sure beats watching regular television. The others? There are a few compelling match-ups, like LSU versus Penn State, Oregon State battling BYU, Stanford and Oklahoma meeting and Virginia Tech taking on Tennessee. But with too many games--34--there are naturally some bad match-ups as there are not 68 compelling teams in FBS football. I'll break down each and every game in the coming weeks.

An imperfect collection of bowls is no reason for a playoff system, however. What I would love is the elimination of the conference tie-in and the use of a panel, like they do in college basketball, to choose the pairings for each bowl. This panel would concentrate on producing exciting match-ups and delivering more fans and higher ratings to each bowl. This can be done and should be done. Eliminating 5-7 bowls would go a long way to improving the product presented to sports fans this time of year too.

Big 12 Title Game: Hit Something, Anything!

Texas quarterback Colt McCoy now admits he didn't know the rule about passes out of bounds, that is, the clock doesn't stop until a pass hits something, anything, in his case the grandstand railing at Cowboys Stadium. He thought, as many of us probably did, that all it took to stop the clock was to lob the ball over the line of scrimmage and wide of the sideline.

In last Saturday night's Big 12 Championship Game, McCoy surely was confused in the dying moments because it is easy to wonder what he was doing on the incomplete pass play that almost ended the game, cost Texas a trip to the national title game, and sent Nebraska to a BCS bowl game as conference champion. What now is this season's most famous single tick-of-the-clock was restored to the game clock, which allowed Hunter Lawrence to make a winning 46-yard field goal. The kick, which made the final score 13-12, truly got McCoy off the hook.

What was going on? McCoy, an engaging stand-up kid, needs to stand up now and admit he almost blew it, that he cut it too fine. That would be alright, Colt. Everything would be forgiven in Longhorn circles. You won. Instead, he's changing his story daily, no doubt hoping the questions will go away.

Let's review. Having just gone ahead 12-10 on Alex Henery's fourth field goal, Nebraska hurt itself by kicking off out-of-bounds. Texas had the ball, first down at its 40. McCoy hit receiver Jordan Shipley with a critical 19-yard pass to the Nebraska 41. Safety Larry Asante was called for a 15-yard penalty for a horse-collar tackle. (Texas fans can thank their old NFL pal Terrell Owens for that rule, by the way.) Texas quickly was at the Nebraska 26, first down.

Huskers defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, the best player on the field and maybe in the nation (Watch for my Heisman lineman rant here soon!), sacked McCoy for a two-yard loss. On second down from the 28, McCoy ran to the left and lost another yard. On third down, McCoy dropped back and drifted to his right rather aimlessly as the clock ticked past five-seconds-to-go. Finally, he lobbed a pop-up so far out-of-bounds it might have hit Holly Rowe or Erin Andrews, or at least put a lump on the back of the head of innkeeper Jerry Jones.

What was Texas and McCoy thinking? According to the official play-by-play report the Longhorns had one timeout left. Why didn't they run twice to get a shorter field goal, then call time-out? If McCoy knew, as he stated in the post-game interview, that Lawrence preferred to kick from the right hashmark, why did he run left on the previous play? When McCoy rolled out on his third down pass, was he trying to kill time or pass for a gain, or both, while getting to the right hashmark? We may never know, but in the end it didn't matter. Well, it did matter to "Husker Nation," which is smarting from a painful loss and smells a conspiracy.

Sunday's Omaha World-Herald didn't use a whole column worth of space but did pose the question: Is Texas the only member of the conference that would have gotten the replay review that (rightfully) restored the notorious single second?

This isn't the first conspiracy theory offered up in college football. Last year, when Texas lost out to Oklahoma—a team the Longhorns defeated—in the Big 12 South because of a technical tie-breaker, Sooner fans gloated because they beat out the conference "poster boy" that always seemed to get its way.

Whether we admit it or not, it is better business for the Big 12 when Texas makes the BCS Title Game instead of Iowa State. Down deep, Big Ten administrators would rather see Michigan make the Rose Bowl instead of Indiana. More money was spent in NASCAR in the 1980s and '90s when Dale Earnhardt won races instead of Sterling Marlin. It's the way it is. TV ratings go up when the Yankees are in the World Series and the Lakers in the NBA finals.

A few years back, I married into a Nebraska family and was pulling like crazy for the Huskers Saturday night. But I know for certain, as every Husker fan knows in their heart, the game wasn't really lost in the last second. Up 6-0 and having just blocked a punt at the Texas 37 in the second quarter, Nebraska's quarterback Zac Lee threw an end zone interception. With 13 minutes to play and the Huskers behind 10-6, Niles Paul raced a punt back 43 yards to the Longhorns 10, but the painfully weak offense had to settle for another field goal. If Paul could have eluded the last tackler, Nebraska would have been ahead 13-10. And as great as the defense played, the Black Shirts couldn't keep Texas pinned at its 1 after the next kickoff. Then there was the penalty for the kickoff out of bounds from Adi Kunalic, who otherwise was excellent on kickoffs all night. Oh, what might have been for Nebraska (9-4 in the regular season) this year, which lost three games—16-15 to Virginia Tech, 9-7 to Iowa State, and 13-12 to Texas—by a total of four points.

--Bob Boyles

Crazy

What a day! Toss in the great game Thursday night between Oregon and Oregon State and the final weekend of college football delivered. The highly-anticipated battle for the SEC championship turned into a rout while the battles for the Pac 10, Big East, ACC and Big 12 spots in the BCS bowls turned out to be very memorable. Where to begin? Why did Colt McCoy think there were 15 seconds left when he rolled right on the last play from scrimmage for Texas? How good is C.J. Spiller? Ndumakong Suh? Mardy Gilyard? Most of Alabama? As they just mentioned on ABC, a number of talented players produced brilliant last-game performances yet QBs Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy did not. McCoy would have joined Tebow in the tear-flowing department post-game if that last second was not put on the clock or if K Hunter Lawrence did not keep his winning FG try within the left upright.

Crazy.

Remember When

With the highly-anticipated Florida versus Alabama match-up today for the SEC Championship, we have made the easy decision to remember one of the finer meetings between these two programs with the SEC crown in the balance. The SEC Championship game was established in 1992 after the conference expanded to 12 teams with the addition of Arkansas and South Carolina. Alabama and Florida were the two best programs in the conference then, as now, and met in that first game, which was won by the Tide 28-21. Alabama then went on to win the national title by beating Miami in the Sugar Bowl and the current edition of the team looks to do the same this year. The two schools met again in 1993 and 1994 and Remember When looks back at the exciting 1994 game that pitted no. 3 Alabama and no. 6 Florida for SEC glory.

Florida 24 Alabama 22 (Atlanta): In nerve-wracking SEC title game, Florida (10-1-1) silenced lingering doubt about big game ability, and Alabama (11-1) saw national title shot evaporate. Crimson Tide opened scoring as QB Jay Barker (10-19/181y, TD, 2 INTs) passed 70y to WR Curtis Brown on perfectly-threaded arrow. But, Barker banged up his throwing shoulder as Gators took 17-10 H lead on 2 TDs by QB Danny Wuerffel. Bama K Michael Proctor made 47 and 48y FGs in 3^rd Q, and when LB Dwayne Rudd ran in 23y INT in 4^th Q, Tide led 22-17. Coach Gene Stallings was criticized for not trying 2-pt conv, but kicked instead for 23-17 edge. At this point, Gators dipped into coach Steve Spurrier's bag of tricks and came up with 20y lateral double-pass from Wuerffel to WR Chris Doering to WR Aubrey Hill, who carried to 2YL. Doering caught TD pass on next play, and K Judd Davis made winning kick with 5:29 to go.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Dec. 5, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-4, Season: 22-32

All 2009 Games

Last Week ATS: Favorites covered 17 (36.96%), failed to cover 29, 2 Pushes
Season ATS: Favorites covered 277 (47.84%), failed to cover 302

Farewell to Foge

In this season of coaches fading into oblivion, the college football world lost another coach yesterday. Serafino "Foge" Fazio died at 71 after a long bout with leukemia. It received microscopic attention in a modern sports world that cares more about what Tiger Woods did or didn't say, what he did or didn't do.

Foge Fazio inherited the coaching reins from Jackie Sherrill of the Pittsburgh Panthers in 1982, which as it happens, was the first of nine years I would live in Pittsburgh, America's most underrated great city. The good news for Foge was that the former Panthers center-linebacker (He played in Mike Ditka in 58-59.) and defensive coordinator took over a preseason no. 1 team with a star-studded cast of Dan Marino at quarterback, future NFLers Jimbo Covert, Jim Sweeney and Bill Fralic in the offensive line, and tackle Bill Maas, linebackers Michael Woods and Chris Doleman, and backs Tim Lewis, Troy Hill and Tom Flynn on the defense. The bad news was that Pitt won its first four games against ranked opponents but never by sufficiently large a score to please the local faithful.

Regrettably, Pitt lost three of its last five games that year and by 1985 had faded badly under Fazio's watch. Foge was fired and went to the NFL where he became a very good defensive coach on some good teams.

When public pressure in Pittsburgh was against Foge—as it now is against Tiger Woods, granted, on a far bigger scale for Tiger—did Foge clam up, rebuke the police, blame the media, skip a charity event? No, what Foge would do in those down years of 1984-85 was come out (mostly during the off-season) and drink a beer at one of the more upscale Friday night hangouts. He'd smile, shake hands, tell a story or two, and be on his way after no more than two mellow-tasting I.C. Lights.

Can you imagine Tiger Woods out in Orlando tomorrow night, shaking hands with his sports-minded critics and swapping stories over a cold one? No way! R.I.P. Foge.

Here are my picks for Thursday and Saturday, December 3 and 5:

My season of prognosticating is beginning to look like Foge Fazio's 3-7-1 record at Pitt in 1984. This week to honor my late, old acquaintance, I'm going with teams with the better defenses.

(Thursday) Oregon State (+10) at OREGON
Neither team is blessed with Pitt's 1982 defensive talent, but the Ducks, a better all-around team, also have a slightly better defense than the Beavers. The winner goes to the Rose Bowl, and Oregon simply is more talented. I'm not nuts about covering 10 points against Oregon State, a perennial good late-season team, but…. Pick: Oregon -10

(Saturday) Cincinnati (-1) at PITTSBURGH
Wouldn't it just be like Dave Wannstedt's unpredictable Panthers to lose to rival West Virginia last week and turn around to ruin the season and a BCS bid for undefeated Cincinnati? This is purely a hunch to honor ex-Panther Foge. Pick: Pittsburgh +1

(Saturday) Florida (-5.5) vs. Alabama at Atlanta
There is no better defense than Alabama's, and I just have a hunch on this one. Hey, nothing else is working for me this season. A couple of turnovers and one or two good passes in the red-zone by Tide quarterback Greg McElroy will be enough to nip a seemingly destined Florida team. Yes, I know Tim Tebow is way better than McElroy. Pick: Alabama +5.5

(Saturday) Texas (-14) vs. Nebraska at Arlington, Texas
I see no way Texas can be kept from a date in the national title game because without turnover help Nebraska's offense simply isn't good enough to score more than 7-10 points against the Longhorns. But, the Huskers defense is way better than most people realize. How would we be looking at this game, had Nebraska's offense pulled out two losses that should have been wins? Those are the 16-15 loss at Virginia Tech and the painful 9-7 loss to Iowa State brought about by four lost fumbles (!) inside the Iowa State five yard-line. Here's what we'd see: Nebraska at 11-1 getting about four-points as underdogs to undefeated Texas. Nebraska may not win, but can cover. Pick: Nebraska +14

Paul's Picks for Dec. 5, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 27-21

Loaded final weekend

This is it. Assuming 48-pt underdog New Mexico State fails to beat undefeated Boise State this weekend, the last chance we have for a major upset this season comes this Saturday night in Arlington as Nebraska hopes to derail the national title hopes of favored Texas. Yet despite the absence of stunners this season there has been plenty of excitement and this week should prove to be a fine cap on an excellent regular season.

Thanks to quirks in the schedule, tonight's Oregon-Oregon State Civil War game has a Rose Bowl berth riding on it and a conference title and BCS berth is at stake when Big East rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati meet this Saturday at noon. The ACC title will be decided Saturday night between Clemson and Georgia Tech, who played a tight game in September that Tech narrowly won. Both tomorrow night's MAC title game between Ohio and Central Michigan and Saturday's Conference USA battle pitting East Carolina and Houston offer top-notch QBs in CMU's Dan LeFevour and Houston's Case Keenum in addition to conference glory. Have room for more? Both the Big East and Pac 10 have some intriguing match-ups between programs jockeying for better bowl games.

The calendar may say December, but there is plenty of college football action this week.

Here are my picks for this week:

(Friday) Central Michigan (-13) vs. Ohio at Detroit

The Chippewas are targeting their third MAC title in four years and will not let the Ohio Bobcats stand in their way. CMU QB Dan LeFevour is the star of the conference and plays his best in the big ones—just ask the Michigan State secondary. Ohio does play solid defense and has a senior QB too in Theo Scott, but they cannot keep up with the firepower of CMU. Central Michigan won those previous two titles by 21 and 25 pts. With a win, coach Butch Jones will have two conference titles in his three years as the head man at CMU and is making a statement for a bigger job. Pick: Central Michigan -13.

(Saturday) West Virginia (+1.5) at RUTGERS
West Virginia has won 14 straight in this series. West Virginia is solid this year but not spectacular. If Rutgers will ever end this streak, they need to do so this year. Pick: Rutgers -1.5

(Saturday) Georgia Tech vs. Clemson at Tampa
Clemson left the field September 10 after losing 30-27 at Georgia Tech with a bad taste in their mouth. After a slow start, the Tigers dominated most of the second half before surrendering two late FGs. Both teams improved as the season went on, but the Tigers have a big advantage Saturday because they lost that game earlier in the season. Pick: Clemson even

(Saturday) Florida Atlantic (+2) at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
May be my last chance to predict a game featuring coach Howard Schnellenberger and who am I to pick against him? Pick: Florida Atlantic +2

War for the Roses

The Pac 10 could not have planned it any better with Oregon and Oregon State meeting in the 113th version of the Civil War on Thursday in prime time (without any other cfb competition) and the winner earning a Rose Bowl berth. For a conference without a championship game this contest will give the casual college football fan the opportunity to see a huge rivalry game with full BCS implications. Win the game and you go to the Rose Bowl. Any fan can follow that scenario.

For Oregon State the game marks a chance at redemption for last year's 65-38 loss. The Beavers also entered that game needing a win to go to the Rose Bowl. Instead they allowed 694y in getting creamed at home. Their reward for that failure? The Sun Bowl and New Year's in El Paso. Lesson learned. The Oregon State defense is saying the right things about that performance and how they will use it as motivation. Plus the OSU stop unit is ranked no. 1 in the conference in rush D, which is key in that the Ducks, with QB Jeremiah Masoli (1,865y passing, 619y rushing) and frosh RB LaMichael James (1,310y rushing) leading the way, are ranked no. 1 in rush O. Leading the Beavers on D is LB Keaton Kristick (80 tackles), one of only three returning starters from last year's unit. Another is DT Stephen Paea, who has been limited by a knee injury. His inside play is huge against the Ducks and their spread O.

On O, Oregon State is led by the three-headed monster that is the Rodgers brothers and QB Sean Canfield. RB Jacquizz Rodgers has rushed for 1,313y and 19 TDs and brother James has caught 77 passes for 865y and 8 TDs while continuing his terrific work as a returnman. Canfield really came into his own as senior, completing 70% of his passes for 2,797y and 19 TDs. He will need to stay sharp against an Oregon D that flies to the ball. The Ducks feature perhaps the best depth on D in the Pac 10 as they have had two games, versus Cal in September and Washington in October, that had 17 or more players record multiple tackles.

Oregon has not lost a conference home game in two years. That was to Oregon State, however, as the road team has won two straight in this hard-fought series. It should be a good one.

View From Bennett Avenue

A lot of the intrigue this time of the season centers on who will get BCS at large berths. Usually there are too many candidates and deserving teams, like an undefeated Boise State last year. In 2009 we have the big six undefeated clubs and then a bunch of question marks.

Who is in? Ohio State has secured a spot in the Rose Bowl, which is back to being a Big 10-Pac 10 battle. They will face the winner of Oregon-Oregon State, to be held Thursday night. The winner of the ACC championship game versus Clemson and Georgia Tech this Saturday gets a spot. The winner of Saturday's SEC title game,between Alabama and Florida, is also, of course, in. A de facto Big East championship game, between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh this Saturday, determines another BCS game spot. The Big 12 championship game, between Texas and Nebraska, will also produce a BCS team. TCU has wrapped up a spot as the highest ranked non-BCS-conference team, ahead of a Boise squad that has one more game but cannot catch the Horned Frogs.

There are four at large berths, including the one occupied by TCU. The SEC title game loser has secured one of the remaining three spots. The ACC and Pac 10 will not get a second team. The Big 10, despite all of the insults it endures, has two candidates in Iowa and Penn State. The Big 12 will only get an extra spot if Nebraska upsets Texas. The Big East will have a say for two teams if Pitt beats Cincinnati. And Boise sits and waits--assuming it manhandles a 3-9 New Mexico State team. The two remaining spots will go to Texas, if it loses Saturday, or a combination of Cincinnati, if they lose Saturday, Boise, a second Big 10 team, or a mystery team like Virginia Tech (to be considered they would have to finish in the top 14 of the final BCS poll) if the final selecting bowl is more concerned about selling tickets than fairness. Do not count LSU in the mix as a conference can only have two teams in BCS games and they are the clear no. 3 for the SEC.

The two programs sweating it out the most? Boise and Cincinnati. Boise has been down this road before and knows not to count on anything. Cincy? Being ranked in the top ten for most of the year does not count at this time of the year. The Bearcats do not have a tradition of selling tickets--until now--at their own tiny stadium. They do not have a tradition of annually shipping off tens of thousands of fans to bowls the way Penn State and Iowa do. They had better win Saturday afternoon.

A lesser bit of intrigue concerns the second Big 10 team selected should there be a spot available for them. While most fans would assume that Iowa would get the nod thanks to their win over Penn State and narrow loss to Ohio State, do not assume anything. In 2007 Missouri beat Kansas head-to-head and advanced to the Big 12 title game. They lost that game to Oklahoma but assumed that a BCS at large berth awaited, only to watch Kansas get selected.

So we have to wait for the games to play out to determine the guaranteed spots and then tune in on Sunday for the selection show to see who got screwed this season. And, of course, if Nebraska upsets Texas and the SEC title game is a classic, then watch for the final BCS poll. I bet the SEC runner-up finishes second ahead of the remaining undefeated teams.

Remember When

With all of the craziness swirling around the Kansas program and head coach Mark Mangino, we would like to remind the KU athletic department that the Jayhawks had a dream season only two years ago. The 2007 edition of the Jayhawks won their first 11 games, entering the clash with rival Missouri with an undefeated record and no. 2 ranking. The Tigers were no slouches that year either, sporting an 10-1 record and no. 4 ranking. The Border Clash never had it so good, as relived in The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia.

Missouri 36 Kansas 28 (Kansas City): For 1st time since establishment of Big 12 in 1996, Tigers (11-1) snatched North crown by beating undefeated rival Kansas (11-1) at Arrowhead Stadium. And with LSU's loss on Friday, Missouri was ticketed, however briefly, for no. 1 in land. Missouri QB Chase Daniel (40-49/361y, 3 TDs) was magnificently sharp after slow start, hitting TE Martin Rucker for short TD for 7-0 lead in 1st Q. Incredibly accurate so far in 2007, Kansas QB Todd Reesing (28-49/349y, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had dreadful 1st Q but zeroed in on WR Kerry Meier for 39y gain on opening play of 2nd Q to set new school mark with 213 throws without INT. But on next play, Tigers S William Moore changed course of game by intercepting Reesing at Mizzou 2YL. Kansas had avoided big PENs all season but was guilty of D-holding after stopping Missouri on 3rd-and-12 at 40YL. It kept 98y drive alive, and Daniel beat pressure to rifle 11y TD pass to WR Danario Alexander (8/117y, TD) for 14-0 H edge. Trailing 21-0 in 3rd Q, Kansas finally tallied on RB Brandon McAnderson's 1y run. Daniel answered with his 3rd TD throw. Behind 28-7, Kansas came alive in 4th Q as Reesing tiptoed into EZ from 5y out and found WR Dexton Fields (8/116y, TD) for 10y score. Alexander made important 3rd down catch to set up K Jeff Wolfert's 2nd 43y FG of 4th Q to establish 34-21 lead for Tigers with 3:31 on clock. Reesing had another TD pass in his quiver with 2:03 left, and Missouri RB Tony Temple (22/98y) was stopped on 3rd down to force punt deep into KU territory. But, as he had two weeks earlier, Missouri NT Lorenzo Williams put cherry on top with sack for safety at game's end.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 27-28, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-3, Season: 21-28

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 26 (50.98%), failed to cover 25, 1 Push
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 260 (48.78%), failed to cover 273

More to Play For

By this time of the season, it is time that the better teams assert themselves. Frankly, some teams have more to play for than others. That is the theme of my five picks this week.

Take all that as you will, dear reader. Your humble prognosticator has suffered only one losing season in 14 years of picking college football. That was the dreaded 1999 season when I stumbled past New Years Day with a 46.7 percent mark. Don't look now, but I currently am drowning at 42.9 percent, and unless I hit about 15 of 18 in the closing weeks and bowl games, I'm sunk.

For what its worth, the yesteryear high-water marks for picking games occurred in 1994 at 69.7 percent and 2007 at 72.1 percent.

Here are my picks for Friday and Saturday, November 27-28:

Friday

Pittsburgh (Even) at WEST VIRGINIA

Dave Wannstedt scares me because under his coaching regime, Pitt has had a nasty tendency to collapse at some bad times. On the other hand, West Virginia's Bill Stewart is never going to be confused with Vince Lombardi. Pitt can reach a BCS bowl with a win here in the "Backyard Brawl" and an upset of Cincinnati next week. Pick: Pittsburgh Even

Saturday

North Carolina (-5.5) at NORTH CAROLINA STATE

Another hot team with much to play for is North Carolina, winners of four straight. NC State has some good weapons, but the Tar Heels boast a tremendous defense that will give headaches to its bowl opponent. Pick: North Carolina -5.5

Oklahoma State (+9.5) at OKLAHOMA

One of these days we co-authors of The USA TODAY College Football Encyclopedia are going to have to research the record of visiting teams in rivalry games. I am so certain that visitors in run-of-the-mill conference games generally lose, but that in rivalry match-ups, home and away situations have far less impact. Note, dear reader, that each of my rivalry-game picks so far are visiting teams, considerably unfazed I believe by playing in their rival's stadium. Here comes another: Oklahoma State still holds out hope for a BCS bowl. While injury-riddled Oklahoma surely is the nation's best team saddled with five losses, the Sooners have so little to play for and are such a big favorite here. Pick: Oklahoma State +9.5

Miami (-5.5) at SOUTH FLORIDA

To the detriment of my won-loss record, I've probably overrated Miami all season. But I can't see the Hurricanes losing to another fast-fading South Florida team. The Bulls are 2-3 since winning their first five this season. They have closed the last two regular seasons at 1-4 and 3-3. Miami delivers more of the same. Pick: Miami -5.5

Notre Dame (+10) at STANFORD

It is so hard to see the Irish getting off the canvas to fight for a coach who is doomed, unless the contractual buyout proves too daunting and earns another chance for that coach. Charlie Weis has very infrequently gotten his Notre Dame "up" for any game. How can he do it more than 2,000 miles from home against a hungry Stanford Cardinal wanting to get back on the winning track? Pick: Stanford -10

Paul's Picks for Nov. 27-28, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 25-19

Down the stretch we come

It is the time of the year when bellies are stuffed, winds are blowing a bit too strong, and football players earn bragging rights in their rivalry games. Texas A&M gave hated Texas a serious scare last night in a game that looked a lot like the high-scoring Big 12 from 2008. UCLA sees plenty of vulnerability in USC, West Virginia looks to enjoy their new position as underdog in the "Backyard Brawl" and Auburn would love nothing better than to post loss number one on Alabama's ledger. These games are compelling beyond the won-loss records of the individual teams and are a challenge for the prognosticator.

Here are my picks for Friday and Saturday, November 27-28:

Friday

Temple (-2.5) at AKRON

The Owls are enjoying a breakout year under coach Al Golden, who now will be rumored for a number of openings at bigger programs. They have sliced through their MAC schedule this year with ease, but need to play at a high level to continue what is now a nine-game win streak. If Temple does not look ahead to the MAC championship game next week against Central Michigan, they should win this game by 10. Pick: Temple -2.5

Alabama (-10) at AUBURN

This is a last-second pick for me as I wanted to hit on one of the bigger games of the weekend. Inspired by the performance of the Aggies last night I am going with Auburn today as I have felt all season that the big three of Florida, Alabama and Texas have not been as separated from their competition this season as the standings and polls may suggest. All of the upperclassmen for the Tigers have both memories of the 36-0 whipping the Tide gave them last year and confidence from the six-game Iron Bowl win steak they enjoyed through 2007. This game should be fun. Pick: Auburn +10

Saturday

Utah (+7.5) at BRIGHAM YOUNG

The 85^th edition of "The Holy War" will feature a bunch of kids who care more about becoming the de facto champion of the Beehive State than religion. With both squads playing second fiddle to TCU in the conference this year, this game also has Mountain West Conference positioning riding on it. BYU has not won this game by more than 7 points since 1996 and they do not do so here. Pick: Utah +7.5

Washington State (+24.5) at WASHINGTON

In terms of national prestige, the Apple Cup has fallen on hard times. Washington State has actually had the better of their cross-state rivals for most of the past few years and while I like the Huskies to win outright, the game means too much to the Cougar players for them to get blown out. Plus, this spread is based on what the Huskies did in the first half of the season. Pick: Washington State +24.5

Pac 10 Groupie

Like a schoolgirl with a crush, I am smitten with Pac 10 football this year. The crazy games. The dynamic players. The gutsy coaches. The balance, apart from rebuilding Washington State, is excellent and more than half the teams in the league have looked like the Pac 10's best at one point in the season. Of course by beating each other up the conference will get only one team, the winner of next week's Oregon-Oregon State game, into a BCS game, but that's okay. They should do well in the Holiday Bowl, Sun Bowl and other aligned post-season games. And with a host of young talent, the league looks strong for next season.

My favorite Pac 10 player this season is Stanford RB Toby Gerhart, who is sitting on 1,531y rushing and 23 TDs with Notre Dame's 80th-ranked rush defense upcoming Saturday. Although Gerhart's uses his 235 lbs well, he has better moves than expected. I really do not understand why he is not getting enough Heisman attention. Wait, I do know. The prejudice against Pac 10 teams not named Southern California.

Defensive player of the year in the conference has to be UCLA junior DT Brian Price, who has 20.5 tackles for a loss and 7 sacks despite playing the interior line and getting double and triple teamed on virtually every play. He has a formidable challenge this weekend against USC's great interior blocking so tune in to see if no. 92 disrupts the Trojans offense.

The big story in the conference this year may be all of the kid QBs. With players like Matt Barkley of USC, Kevin Prince of UCLA, Nick Foles of Arizona and Andrew Luck of Stanford, the conference will be well stocked at the sport's premier position for years to come.

Undying Love for the MAC

I am looking forward to Friday morning's (11AM kickoff) Temple-Ohio match-up in lovely Athens, Ohio. There, I said it. With a lot riding on it, the contest should be a spirited one. The winner of the game earns the the MAC East Division title and a ticket to Detroit for the conference championship game against Central Michigan, who clinched the West title last week, on 12/4.

Temple (7-0, 9-2) enters the game riding a nine-game win streak, the longest in school history, that began in September after the Owls opened the season 0-2 in the state of Pennsylvania (losses to Villanova and Penn State). Coach Al Golden has done a good enough job rebuilding a perennial loser program that this may be his last MAC regular season game. Frosh RB Bernard Pierce has been a revelation for the Temple offense, rushing for 1,308y and 15 TDs. He left last week's 47-13 rout of Kent State with a minor injury but is expected to play Friday. His backup and fellow freshman Matt Brown came in to rush for 156y and 2 TDs so the Owls run game seems fine for not only Friday but years to come (the line is young too). The Cherry and White also feature an experience defense, currently ranked 18th nationally in both run D at 103y per game average and sacks at 2.73 per game, and an explosive return game that features WR Delano Green. Green has returned punts for TDs in each of the past two games. The caveat with the team's streak of good play is that they did not have to face the three other good teams in the conference, Ohio, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. They did beat Navy on the road a week before the Midshipmen beat Notre Dame. In becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1979 (remember the Garden State Bowl?) the Owls are a great story this season, but they have a lot of work still to be done.

Rebounding from last season's 4-8 mark, the Ohio Bobcats (6-1, 8-3) are also a feel-good MAC story. Under coach Frank Solich, whose 58-19 record while at Nebraska does not look too bad these days, the Bobcats enter the game having won six of their last seven games, although they remained alive in the East race due to down-to-the-wire wins in their last three games. On Halloween, Ohio needed a 7y TD pass from senior QB Theo Scott (pictured) to WR Terrence McCrae with 3:11 left to beat Ball State 20-17. Then on November 10, Ohio outlasted Buffalo 27-24 as K Matt Weller booted the winning 47y FG with 1:25 remaining. Last week the Bobcats held off Northern Illinois 38-31, needing a 41y INT TD RET from CB Julian Posey with 1:39 to clinch matters. Scott, having thrown for 1,796y and 16 TDs, paces the offense, while LB Noah Keller leads the defense with 109 tackles. The suddenly cardiac Bobcats may need more late heroics to hold off the Owls this week.

Weighing in on Weis

It looks like the final nails have been ordered for the Charlie Weis coffin at Notre Dame. Unfortunately for him the toughest game on the regular season schedule--yes sports fans trying to win at Stanford this year is tougher than hosting USC--remains and so unless he does to Stanford what an inspired Syracuse team did to him last season (i.e., win one for a doomed coach) the team's losing streak will continue.

In many ways Weis deserves what is coming to him. He is arrogant when winning, to the point of not making friends among administrators, alumni and press who could help him now. He is a poor game manager, as evidenced by stretches of every game where his team tanks and he is unable to make adjustments. He is a poor judge of assistant coaching talent. He is unable to develop anyone on the defensive side of the ball. His team's almost always lose the intensity battle to the opposition, which is why they have performed so poorly against seemingly over matched teams like Navy. He plays favorites. He...

That's enough. I am kicking a man while he's down. Weis did do some things right, namely recruit well, graduate players and produce a good, if inconsistent offense. And he kept the tradition of the place front and center. But, he did not win enough games. It usually boils down to that factor.

The bigger concern for Notre Dame fans is the question of his replacement. Notre Dame has done a pretty poor job of hiring football coaches since tabbing Ara Parseghian 46 years ago. Sure Dan Devine and Lou Holtz are both Hall of Famers who won titles at Notre Dame, but even their tenures ended with both sides unhappy. But hiring Gerry Faust, Bob Davie and Charlie Weis without head coaching experience? The fiasco regarding George O'Leary's resume? Hiring Ty Willingham despite his reluctance to recruit and then canning him for Urban Meyer--who took the Florida job instead? That hiring record does not inspire confidence.

The main obstacle in any search is that the candidate needs to be near perfect to succeed.
+He must have successful head coaching experience. Frank Leahy, Parseghian, Devine and Holtz all did well elsewhere before coming to South Bend and winning with the Irish.
+He must be able to handle intense pressure. Both Leahy and Parseghian left coaching as relatively young men due to the pressure to win every game.
+He must be able to recruit players from across the nation who are both talented and able to handle the classes at Notre Dame. Weis seemed to do well in this regard except his recruiting classes were lopsided in favor of the offense. Most of the other top recruiters do so at large state schools without rigid requirements.
+His players must graduate. People keep throwing out the name Chris Peterson of Boise State as a candidate, but Boise is at less than 60% graduation of the players signed in 2002 and that is despite not having kids leave early for the pros.
+He cannot embarrass the school nor allow any players to do the same. Meyer's public squabbling with USC, Tennessee and yes even Notre Dame would not be appreciated, nor his recruiting kids who have committed transgressions both on and off the field. Weis lost his backup TE before the season started because the kid went streaking and then was banished from campus by the Office of Residence Life.
+He must have the attributes of a good public speaker. Holtz was a home run in this regard while the faithful could not stand the dour Devine.
+His teams must be known for toughness. Weis failed in this regard despite coming from a Patriots organization known for its toughness.

The job is even more complicated when factoring in the Catholic angle (don't have to be one--see Rockne and Parseghian--but it helps) and the cold weather (good ol' boy Southerners could have a problem).

So who could handle the position? More importantly, who would want to? Stay tuned, but Irish fans should not be too optimistic.

Remember When

While the Michigan upset of then no. 1 Ohio State at the end of the 1969 season gets its fair share of coverage, especially in Ann Arbor, the game the following year marked the first time that the two programs had not only elevated themselves above the rest of the Big Ten but were both playing for a possible national championship. Both teams entered the contest with perfect records and with three other national powers also sporting undefeated records at the time--Texas, Notre Dame and Nebraska--the Ohio State-Michigan loser would not only lose a perfect record, conference title and bowl game appearance (only one Big Ten team was allowed to go bowling back in that era), but any consideration for a national title.

As recapped in The USA Today Encyclopedia of College Football:

OHIO STATE 20 Michigan 9: Revenge was on mind of sr-dominated Ohio State (9-0), looking to turn tables on Michigan (9-1) which in 1969 inflicted most painful defeat in Buckeye history. After exchange of FGs, odd facemask PEN during line blocking ruined 71y Michigan punt by E-P Paul Staroba late in 2nd Q. Do-over resulted in good field position that allowed Buckeyes to grab 10-3 H edge as QB Rex Kern (8-12/87y, TD, INT) fired 26y TD pass to E Bruce Jankowski. But, Kern bungled scoring chance late in 2nd Q when he expelled K Fred Schram (2 FGs) from Bucks huddle, thus overriding coach Woody Hayes. Kern threw short pass to FB John Brockington, and he was tackled inbounds to end H. This unnoticed illegality made Michigan coach Bo Schembechler livid: "There is no way you can go into the huddle and come out without running a play!" UM E Staroba caught 3rd Q TD pass of 13y from QB Don Moorhead (12-26/118y, TD) and Wolverines moved to within 10-9. But, Buckeyes DB Tim Anderson knifed through to block Michigan K Dana Coin's tying kick. Ohio State's run game, which enjoyed astounding 242y to 37y advantage, dominated 4th Q as HB Leo Hayden (28/117y, TD) topped Schram's 2nd FG with 4y TD run. Now holding impressive 27-1 record over last 3 years, Buckeyes looked to capture their 2nd national title in 3 years for remarkable recruiting class of 1966 when they were to meet Stanford in Rose Bowl.

After Southern Californian beat Notre Dame, the regular season ended with Texas, Ohio State and Nebraska undefeated and ranked 1, 2 and 3 respectively. With Nebraska a clear third due to a tie with USC in September, the path to a title was clear for Ohio State. If Notre Dame beats Texas in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State wins the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes would be champions. The Irish came through with a 24-11 victory over Texas to prevent the Longhorns from winning two straight AP titles (they already won the UPI crown, which was still decided before the bowl games). But in one of the most stunning upsets in bowl game history, Stanford, led by Heisman-winning QB Jim Plunkett, beat the Buckeyes 27-17. Nebraska would go on to top LSU in the Orange Bowl 17-12 to win their first-ever AP national championship.

College Football Performance Formula

2009 College Football Performance Formula
November 18

1. Texas 1.8619
2. TCU 1.8016
3. Alabama 1.7940
4. Florida 1.7411
5. Boise State 1.6952
6. Cincinnati 1.6616
7. Ohio State 1.5900
8. Pittsburgh 1.5561
9. Louisiana State 1.5530
10. Oregon 1.5494
11. Georgia Tech 1.5338
12. Virginia Tech 1.5213
13. Penn State 1.5027
14. Iowa 1.4672
15. Oklahoma State 1.4594
16. Clemson 1.4197
17. Wisconsin 1.4099
18. BYU 1.3645
19. Nebraska 1.3537
20. Utah 1.3475
21. Houston 1.343889
22. Miami 1.343870
23. Rutgers 1.3365
24. Central Michigan 1.3130
25. Oregon State 1.3026
26. Stanford 1.3021
27. USC 1.3006
28. Arkansas 1.3004
29. Navy 1.2909
30. West Virginia 1.2836
31. Arizona 1.2776
32. Mississippi 1.2671
33. Temple 1.2646
34. Boston College 1.2567
35. California 1.2554
36. Nevada 1.2426
37. North Carolina 1.2342
38. Auburn 1.2317
39. Notre Dame 1.2238
40. Air Force 1.2097

The Performance Formula compiles a grade for each of college football's 120 FBS teams based on three stat categories: winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and scoring margin. Both winning percentage factors are adjusted down to account for wins over FCS schools, and scoring margins are diminished to avoid stat-skewing by a win or loss margin greater than 40 points. A perfectly average team will score 1.0000, while eventual national champions generally score in excess of 1.7500.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-5, Season: 20-25

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 31 (57.4%), failed to cover 23, 1 Push, 1 Even
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 234 (48.5%), failed to cover 248

Fallen to "Swami" Status

Chris "Boomer" Berman of ESPN, known as "The Swami" when picking NFL games, hasn't a serious bone in his handicapping body. A couple of weeks ago when the Buccaneers and Patriots went to London to play he picked the Patriots to win 1776 to 1588. Those would be the years of the American Revolution (Patriots) and the Defeat of the Spanish Armada (Bucs). Get it? Hey, he won the pick.

As far as we know, however, "The Swami" has never hit a break-even season in the 30 or so years Berman has played Swami.

And now, I too have fallen to a similar status after last week's 1-5 disaster. I still say the Houston Cougars as a small favorite over Central Florida and the Rice Owls as a favorite over anybody other than Western Kentucky were two of the strangest lines out of Vegas ever. Too bad I had no clue. It is games like those that prompt some wise-guys to wonder about things being on the up-and-up.

I'm a desperate picker. The reader might consider pulling a George Costanza and go completely against every natural instinct in believing my picks. But here goes.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Thursday:

Colorado +16 at OKLAHOMA STATE

"Mr. Thursday" returns with his lifetime 68-16 record (80.95%). Oklahoma State, so sexy after its early season win over Georgia but almost dismissed after losing to Houston, continues on a path to a New Years Day bowl. Colorado has pretty slipped off the face of the map, and coach Dan Hawkins likely has his bags packed. I don't usually go for spreads larger than 12 points, but I really like the Cowpokes at home. Pick: Oklahoma State -16

Saturday:

Purdue (-3.5) at INDIANA

No team in America has had the bad luck the Hoosiers have suffered. They stand at 4-7 but absolutely should have beaten Michigan and Northwestern and easily might have beaten Iowa and Penn State—Indiana had good leads into the second half each time. Purdue, also 4-7, is up and down, looking good one week (see Oregon, Ohio State and Illinois) and awful the next (see Northern Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). I feel Indiana has more to play for, has more pride, and is at home in a rivalry game. Pick: Indiana +3.5

Louisiana State (+3.5) at MISSISSIPPI

Disappointing Mississippi had their big effort last week in crushing Tennessee. The LSU Tigers at 8-2 have beaten everybody but Florida and Alabama—the polls' top two teams in the country—and have a defense faster than anything Ole Miss has pretty well seen so far. It ought to be close and entertaining, but why is LSU an underdog? I believe this is the week's biggest mismatch in Jeff Sagarin's USA TODAY ranking system. Pick: LSU +3.5

Air Force (+10) at BYU

Underrated Air Force can secure a good bowl game with a win over BYU, a team nipping at a good ranking all year. The Falcons may not win this one, and I usually like underdogs that I feel can win. More than anything, I'm going with a hunch here. Hey, logic hasn't worked out that well for me this year. Pick: Air Force +10

Paul's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009:

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 22-18

There's No Crying in Football

No, I am not directing this to New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. But once again I have read an editorial by a sportswriter, this time ESPN's Ivan Maisel, that is a grievance about the 2009 season. Maisel is bored by the match-ups this weekend—and yes it is a slow weekend—as he has by the whole season. Of course he neglects to mention that the NFL lineup for the week includes eight games with spreads larger than a TD. He complains that the biggest college game this weekend is Arizona-Oregon, but fails to notice that the biggest pro game of the weekend is Denver-San Diego (the pro equivalent of…Arizona-Oregon). He even throws the Heisman race into the picture as if a fan cannot enjoy the sport without a discussion of the race for a popularity trophy.

So, Ivan, quit your job if you do understand that any college football game could turn out to be a quality, exciting contest. The drama unfolding throughout the country on any Saturday is unpredictable and not chained to the determination of a national champion. And crying over the mediocrity of some of the bigger programs is truly sad coming from a sportswriter who should know that having USC win the Pac 10 every year is actually boring and that Notre Dame does not have any more of a claim to a top 10 ranking than TCU.

But that's enough ranting for now. Let's get on with the picks.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Friday:

Akron (+11) at BOWLING GREEN

I must be 0-20 the past few year picking MAC games so go along with me here at your own peril. I am taking Bowling Green in honor of star WR Freddie Barnes, who will catch 11 passes tomorrow night, one for each pt the Falcons are favored by. Plus the Falcons are due to win big at home, having lost three straight (but to Boise State, Ohio and Central Michigan). Pick: Bowling Green -11

Saturday:

Wisconsin (-7) at NORTHWESTERN
With the focus of attention in Big 10 country on the Big Three this season of Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State, it may be surprising to some that Wisconsin is 8-2 and Northwestern stands at 7-4. Both teams are playing well of late and the Wildcats have won the past two series games played in Evanston. There should be plenty of pts scored in this game as Northwestern will struggle to stop John Clay and the powerful Badgers rush game, while Wisconsin has allowed 28, 31 and 28 pts in their three Big Ten road games. Pick: Northwestern +7

Rutgers (-8) at SYRACUSE
The Syracuse program is tired. New coach Doug Marrone worked them hard this summer in an effort to change the culture, which also chased away some players. The team was fired up for early season contests against Big Ten teams, even managing an upset of Northwestern. But by mid-season the wheels fell off as the team's best player on O, WR Mike Williams, quit amid rumors of a failed drug test, and the best D player, DT Arthur Jones, was lost for the season with a knee injury. They are 0-5 in the Big East, having lost their best chance for a win by 1 pt to Louisville last week. Rutgers, on the other hand, heads to the Carrier Dome riding a three-game win streak. They are 3-0 on the road too, with three covers. They have won four straight on the series by an average score of 36-12 and should not be looking ahead to anything as they have Louisville on the schedule for Thanksgiving weekend. Pick: Rutgers -8

Kansas (+27.5) at TEXAS
There are a lot of hurt feelings in Lawrence as the Kansas team not only continues to lose—five straight and counting—but have their sights on the head of coach Mark Mangino being presented to them on a plate. The Jayhawks are about as far removed from their amazing 2007 season as possible. While the Longhorns have actually been covering with more ease on the road this season, they should have no problem romping here. With a win, Longhorns QB Colt McCoy will become the winningest QB in NCAA history. Get your erasers ready NCAA. Pick: Texas -27.5

SEC Mess

With Florida and Alabama already locked into their SEC Title game spots, the SEC desperately needs another team to garner media attention. Wait, they have one in that carnival sideshow of a program...Tennessee! The latest "news" is that frosh DB Nyshier Oliver was caught shoplifting an expensive polo shirt of all things from a Knoxville mall in early November. That is normally not too big of a deal as Oliver is not the first teen to swipe a shirt. But, Oliver was caught four days before coach Lane Kiffen bragged about the lack of arrests in the program, although there is some doubt as too the coach's knowledge of the incident (what is worse?). And that speech was a few days before three of Oliver's teammates attempted to rob a parked car outside a convenience store. All four of the players in question, two of whom have been thrown out of school, are members of Kiffin's first recruiting class.

These criminal misdoings have been just the latest chapter for a program that is being defined by the outrageous statements tossed out by a coach with a desperate need to get his name in the paper. Getting attention for a challenge to Florida's supremacy in the SEC East is a bit different from talking to the press about player arrests. Are these isolated incidents, or is Kiffin doing anything to win and stumbling a few times in doing so?

And Kiffin is fully aware that all of the bluster and recruiting coups and player screw ups is secondary to the product on the field. The Volunteers returned some talented players, including one of the best defenders in the country in S Eric Berry (pictured). The defense, which has played well this year until the Mississippi game, was ranked in the top five in the country last year. RB Montario Hardesty and QB Jonathan Crompton, who have paced the offense, are seniors. Going 5-5 with a schedule that featured both road games with Florida, Alabama and Mississippi and an easy non-conference schedule that consisted of home games against four teams with a combined 14-26 record is just okay. Sweeping the remaining games to go 8-5 will be better, certainly, but the Vols may have to rebuild next year after losing a great many key players after this season. That effort got tougher with the losses to the freshmen class.

Where does Tennessee go from here? They will remain aggressive in the pursuit of football talent. They say that they will be tough on their kids when the players mess up. We will see. We also know that Kiffin better start winning soon or the bluster and criminal activity will swallow up his efforts.

Big East Overview

The Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0, 9-1) have a week off. Which is a good thing as their two toughest opponents remain on a schedule that is very back heavy. The first ten games of the schedule featured some solid opponents (Navy, the September version of North Carolina State, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida and Notre Dame) and some weaklings (Youngstown State, Buffalo, Louisville and Syracuse), but no one too hard to handle. That was a good thing as QB Bill Stull was able to develop into a decent QB while quieting his detractors and the D, under new DC Phil Bennett, was able to improve from a September during which they allowed 500y to Buffalo and 530y to North Carolina State. Neither the Bulls nor the Wolfpack are at .500 this year, so months of improvement were needed on the D side before being able to take on the O talent sent on to the field by coaches of Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The D-line delivered versus the Irish and will need to lead the way in the team's remaining two Big East clashes.

The Panthers have also been fortunate to play from behind all season, despite being undefeated in conference play. That is a great position to be in as the pressure has all been on the Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0, 10-0). Cincinnati also has a week off, which is also fortunate as the entire team needs to exhale after beating Connecticut and West Virginia by a combined five pts. The closest final score in the previous eight wins for Cincy was eight (28-20 over Fresno State), so the Bearcats are clearly looking for a return to the heady play of the season's first two months as they close out this historic season with games against Illinois and Pittsburgh.

Rutgers (2-2, 7-2) meanwhile is trying desperately to continue their strong play of late as a double digit win total and meaningful bowl game are within the team's grasp. Big East bottom feeders Syracuse and Connecticut are next up for the Scarlet Knights, but both games are on the road and Rutgers, which has played well this season when under the radar, cannot suddenly spit the bit with a potential for better things hanging over their heads. They also cannot be caught looking ahead to West Virginia, to be played December 5, even though the Mountaineers' 14-game series win streak is in jeopardy this season with the two programs somewhat even.

ACC Overview

Is it me or has the ACC become somewhat predictable? After a crazy 2008 season, when an unranked ACC team beat a ranked conference team a whopping 14 times, and then turbulent start to this season with Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech and then Georgia Tech again occupying the spot as ACC's best team on a weekly basis and up-and-down performances by everyone else, the conference has settled down a bit.

Georgia Tech (7-1, 10-1) has won eight straight games and the talent-packed Coastal Division as coach Paul Johnson's ambitious plan of what could be accomplished at the program once the players fully learned his schemes has become a reality. The Yellow Jackets have averaged 39 pts per game in that stretch, despite it consisting of games against six ACC teams and 2 members of the SEC. With upcoming games against Georgia, Clemson most likely in the ACC title game and then a possible BCS game opponent, the presence of WR Demaryius Thomas (39/950y, 6 TDs) may be most important to Tech's chances of remaining in the nation's top 10. With QB Josh Nesbitt (218/847y, 16 TDs) and back Jonathan Dwyer (183/1203y, 11 TDs) pacing the rush attack, Thomas's play gives the O a dimension that is truly frightening. Thomas, who will be the rare 1,000y receiver produced by an option attack, is so physical at 6'3, 228 lbs that a defense already worried about the run cannot fully guard him with one DB. Seven times this season he has hooked up with Nesbitt on pass plays of more than 50y as the big play capability of the offense now stems from both passes and pitches (if not Nesbitt keepers).

Clemson (5-2, 7-3) must win this Saturday against Virginia, or hope Boston College loses to either North Carolina or Maryland, to clinch the Atlantic Division. Assuming that happens, the Tigers will be very confident against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game due to their play in a narrow 30-27 loss to Tech in Atlanta early in the season. Clemson trailed 24-0 in that game before rallying behind a dominant 2nd H performance in the trenches. Add to that mix the play of exhilarating RB C. J. Spiller, who has the rare ability to score a TD every time he returns a kick, takes a hand-off or receives a pass, and continued development of QB Kyle Parker, and the Tigers should give the Yellow Jackets all they can handle on December 5th in Tampa.