Remember When

With all of the craziness swirling around the Kansas program and head coach Mark Mangino, we would like to remind the KU athletic department that the Jayhawks had a dream season only two years ago. The 2007 edition of the Jayhawks won their first 11 games, entering the clash with rival Missouri with an undefeated record and no. 2 ranking. The Tigers were no slouches that year either, sporting an 10-1 record and no. 4 ranking. The Border Clash never had it so good, as relived in The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia.

Missouri 36 Kansas 28 (Kansas City): For 1st time since establishment of Big 12 in 1996, Tigers (11-1) snatched North crown by beating undefeated rival Kansas (11-1) at Arrowhead Stadium. And with LSU's loss on Friday, Missouri was ticketed, however briefly, for no. 1 in land. Missouri QB Chase Daniel (40-49/361y, 3 TDs) was magnificently sharp after slow start, hitting TE Martin Rucker for short TD for 7-0 lead in 1st Q. Incredibly accurate so far in 2007, Kansas QB Todd Reesing (28-49/349y, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had dreadful 1st Q but zeroed in on WR Kerry Meier for 39y gain on opening play of 2nd Q to set new school mark with 213 throws without INT. But on next play, Tigers S William Moore changed course of game by intercepting Reesing at Mizzou 2YL. Kansas had avoided big PENs all season but was guilty of D-holding after stopping Missouri on 3rd-and-12 at 40YL. It kept 98y drive alive, and Daniel beat pressure to rifle 11y TD pass to WR Danario Alexander (8/117y, TD) for 14-0 H edge. Trailing 21-0 in 3rd Q, Kansas finally tallied on RB Brandon McAnderson's 1y run. Daniel answered with his 3rd TD throw. Behind 28-7, Kansas came alive in 4th Q as Reesing tiptoed into EZ from 5y out and found WR Dexton Fields (8/116y, TD) for 10y score. Alexander made important 3rd down catch to set up K Jeff Wolfert's 2nd 43y FG of 4th Q to establish 34-21 lead for Tigers with 3:31 on clock. Reesing had another TD pass in his quiver with 2:03 left, and Missouri RB Tony Temple (22/98y) was stopped on 3rd down to force punt deep into KU territory. But, as he had two weeks earlier, Missouri NT Lorenzo Williams put cherry on top with sack for safety at game's end.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 27-28, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-3, Season: 21-28

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 26 (50.98%), failed to cover 25, 1 Push
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 260 (48.78%), failed to cover 273

More to Play For

By this time of the season, it is time that the better teams assert themselves. Frankly, some teams have more to play for than others. That is the theme of my five picks this week.

Take all that as you will, dear reader. Your humble prognosticator has suffered only one losing season in 14 years of picking college football. That was the dreaded 1999 season when I stumbled past New Years Day with a 46.7 percent mark. Don't look now, but I currently am drowning at 42.9 percent, and unless I hit about 15 of 18 in the closing weeks and bowl games, I'm sunk.

For what its worth, the yesteryear high-water marks for picking games occurred in 1994 at 69.7 percent and 2007 at 72.1 percent.

Here are my picks for Friday and Saturday, November 27-28:

Friday

Pittsburgh (Even) at WEST VIRGINIA

Dave Wannstedt scares me because under his coaching regime, Pitt has had a nasty tendency to collapse at some bad times. On the other hand, West Virginia's Bill Stewart is never going to be confused with Vince Lombardi. Pitt can reach a BCS bowl with a win here in the "Backyard Brawl" and an upset of Cincinnati next week. Pick: Pittsburgh Even

Saturday

North Carolina (-5.5) at NORTH CAROLINA STATE

Another hot team with much to play for is North Carolina, winners of four straight. NC State has some good weapons, but the Tar Heels boast a tremendous defense that will give headaches to its bowl opponent. Pick: North Carolina -5.5

Oklahoma State (+9.5) at OKLAHOMA

One of these days we co-authors of The USA TODAY College Football Encyclopedia are going to have to research the record of visiting teams in rivalry games. I am so certain that visitors in run-of-the-mill conference games generally lose, but that in rivalry match-ups, home and away situations have far less impact. Note, dear reader, that each of my rivalry-game picks so far are visiting teams, considerably unfazed I believe by playing in their rival's stadium. Here comes another: Oklahoma State still holds out hope for a BCS bowl. While injury-riddled Oklahoma surely is the nation's best team saddled with five losses, the Sooners have so little to play for and are such a big favorite here. Pick: Oklahoma State +9.5

Miami (-5.5) at SOUTH FLORIDA

To the detriment of my won-loss record, I've probably overrated Miami all season. But I can't see the Hurricanes losing to another fast-fading South Florida team. The Bulls are 2-3 since winning their first five this season. They have closed the last two regular seasons at 1-4 and 3-3. Miami delivers more of the same. Pick: Miami -5.5

Notre Dame (+10) at STANFORD

It is so hard to see the Irish getting off the canvas to fight for a coach who is doomed, unless the contractual buyout proves too daunting and earns another chance for that coach. Charlie Weis has very infrequently gotten his Notre Dame "up" for any game. How can he do it more than 2,000 miles from home against a hungry Stanford Cardinal wanting to get back on the winning track? Pick: Stanford -10

Paul's Picks for Nov. 27-28, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 25-19

Down the stretch we come

It is the time of the year when bellies are stuffed, winds are blowing a bit too strong, and football players earn bragging rights in their rivalry games. Texas A&M gave hated Texas a serious scare last night in a game that looked a lot like the high-scoring Big 12 from 2008. UCLA sees plenty of vulnerability in USC, West Virginia looks to enjoy their new position as underdog in the "Backyard Brawl" and Auburn would love nothing better than to post loss number one on Alabama's ledger. These games are compelling beyond the won-loss records of the individual teams and are a challenge for the prognosticator.

Here are my picks for Friday and Saturday, November 27-28:

Friday

Temple (-2.5) at AKRON

The Owls are enjoying a breakout year under coach Al Golden, who now will be rumored for a number of openings at bigger programs. They have sliced through their MAC schedule this year with ease, but need to play at a high level to continue what is now a nine-game win streak. If Temple does not look ahead to the MAC championship game next week against Central Michigan, they should win this game by 10. Pick: Temple -2.5

Alabama (-10) at AUBURN

This is a last-second pick for me as I wanted to hit on one of the bigger games of the weekend. Inspired by the performance of the Aggies last night I am going with Auburn today as I have felt all season that the big three of Florida, Alabama and Texas have not been as separated from their competition this season as the standings and polls may suggest. All of the upperclassmen for the Tigers have both memories of the 36-0 whipping the Tide gave them last year and confidence from the six-game Iron Bowl win steak they enjoyed through 2007. This game should be fun. Pick: Auburn +10

Saturday

Utah (+7.5) at BRIGHAM YOUNG

The 85^th edition of "The Holy War" will feature a bunch of kids who care more about becoming the de facto champion of the Beehive State than religion. With both squads playing second fiddle to TCU in the conference this year, this game also has Mountain West Conference positioning riding on it. BYU has not won this game by more than 7 points since 1996 and they do not do so here. Pick: Utah +7.5

Washington State (+24.5) at WASHINGTON

In terms of national prestige, the Apple Cup has fallen on hard times. Washington State has actually had the better of their cross-state rivals for most of the past few years and while I like the Huskies to win outright, the game means too much to the Cougar players for them to get blown out. Plus, this spread is based on what the Huskies did in the first half of the season. Pick: Washington State +24.5

Pac 10 Groupie

Like a schoolgirl with a crush, I am smitten with Pac 10 football this year. The crazy games. The dynamic players. The gutsy coaches. The balance, apart from rebuilding Washington State, is excellent and more than half the teams in the league have looked like the Pac 10's best at one point in the season. Of course by beating each other up the conference will get only one team, the winner of next week's Oregon-Oregon State game, into a BCS game, but that's okay. They should do well in the Holiday Bowl, Sun Bowl and other aligned post-season games. And with a host of young talent, the league looks strong for next season.

My favorite Pac 10 player this season is Stanford RB Toby Gerhart, who is sitting on 1,531y rushing and 23 TDs with Notre Dame's 80th-ranked rush defense upcoming Saturday. Although Gerhart's uses his 235 lbs well, he has better moves than expected. I really do not understand why he is not getting enough Heisman attention. Wait, I do know. The prejudice against Pac 10 teams not named Southern California.

Defensive player of the year in the conference has to be UCLA junior DT Brian Price, who has 20.5 tackles for a loss and 7 sacks despite playing the interior line and getting double and triple teamed on virtually every play. He has a formidable challenge this weekend against USC's great interior blocking so tune in to see if no. 92 disrupts the Trojans offense.

The big story in the conference this year may be all of the kid QBs. With players like Matt Barkley of USC, Kevin Prince of UCLA, Nick Foles of Arizona and Andrew Luck of Stanford, the conference will be well stocked at the sport's premier position for years to come.

Undying Love for the MAC

I am looking forward to Friday morning's (11AM kickoff) Temple-Ohio match-up in lovely Athens, Ohio. There, I said it. With a lot riding on it, the contest should be a spirited one. The winner of the game earns the the MAC East Division title and a ticket to Detroit for the conference championship game against Central Michigan, who clinched the West title last week, on 12/4.

Temple (7-0, 9-2) enters the game riding a nine-game win streak, the longest in school history, that began in September after the Owls opened the season 0-2 in the state of Pennsylvania (losses to Villanova and Penn State). Coach Al Golden has done a good enough job rebuilding a perennial loser program that this may be his last MAC regular season game. Frosh RB Bernard Pierce has been a revelation for the Temple offense, rushing for 1,308y and 15 TDs. He left last week's 47-13 rout of Kent State with a minor injury but is expected to play Friday. His backup and fellow freshman Matt Brown came in to rush for 156y and 2 TDs so the Owls run game seems fine for not only Friday but years to come (the line is young too). The Cherry and White also feature an experience defense, currently ranked 18th nationally in both run D at 103y per game average and sacks at 2.73 per game, and an explosive return game that features WR Delano Green. Green has returned punts for TDs in each of the past two games. The caveat with the team's streak of good play is that they did not have to face the three other good teams in the conference, Ohio, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. They did beat Navy on the road a week before the Midshipmen beat Notre Dame. In becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1979 (remember the Garden State Bowl?) the Owls are a great story this season, but they have a lot of work still to be done.

Rebounding from last season's 4-8 mark, the Ohio Bobcats (6-1, 8-3) are also a feel-good MAC story. Under coach Frank Solich, whose 58-19 record while at Nebraska does not look too bad these days, the Bobcats enter the game having won six of their last seven games, although they remained alive in the East race due to down-to-the-wire wins in their last three games. On Halloween, Ohio needed a 7y TD pass from senior QB Theo Scott (pictured) to WR Terrence McCrae with 3:11 left to beat Ball State 20-17. Then on November 10, Ohio outlasted Buffalo 27-24 as K Matt Weller booted the winning 47y FG with 1:25 remaining. Last week the Bobcats held off Northern Illinois 38-31, needing a 41y INT TD RET from CB Julian Posey with 1:39 to clinch matters. Scott, having thrown for 1,796y and 16 TDs, paces the offense, while LB Noah Keller leads the defense with 109 tackles. The suddenly cardiac Bobcats may need more late heroics to hold off the Owls this week.

Weighing in on Weis

It looks like the final nails have been ordered for the Charlie Weis coffin at Notre Dame. Unfortunately for him the toughest game on the regular season schedule--yes sports fans trying to win at Stanford this year is tougher than hosting USC--remains and so unless he does to Stanford what an inspired Syracuse team did to him last season (i.e., win one for a doomed coach) the team's losing streak will continue.

In many ways Weis deserves what is coming to him. He is arrogant when winning, to the point of not making friends among administrators, alumni and press who could help him now. He is a poor game manager, as evidenced by stretches of every game where his team tanks and he is unable to make adjustments. He is a poor judge of assistant coaching talent. He is unable to develop anyone on the defensive side of the ball. His team's almost always lose the intensity battle to the opposition, which is why they have performed so poorly against seemingly over matched teams like Navy. He plays favorites. He...

That's enough. I am kicking a man while he's down. Weis did do some things right, namely recruit well, graduate players and produce a good, if inconsistent offense. And he kept the tradition of the place front and center. But, he did not win enough games. It usually boils down to that factor.

The bigger concern for Notre Dame fans is the question of his replacement. Notre Dame has done a pretty poor job of hiring football coaches since tabbing Ara Parseghian 46 years ago. Sure Dan Devine and Lou Holtz are both Hall of Famers who won titles at Notre Dame, but even their tenures ended with both sides unhappy. But hiring Gerry Faust, Bob Davie and Charlie Weis without head coaching experience? The fiasco regarding George O'Leary's resume? Hiring Ty Willingham despite his reluctance to recruit and then canning him for Urban Meyer--who took the Florida job instead? That hiring record does not inspire confidence.

The main obstacle in any search is that the candidate needs to be near perfect to succeed.
+He must have successful head coaching experience. Frank Leahy, Parseghian, Devine and Holtz all did well elsewhere before coming to South Bend and winning with the Irish.
+He must be able to handle intense pressure. Both Leahy and Parseghian left coaching as relatively young men due to the pressure to win every game.
+He must be able to recruit players from across the nation who are both talented and able to handle the classes at Notre Dame. Weis seemed to do well in this regard except his recruiting classes were lopsided in favor of the offense. Most of the other top recruiters do so at large state schools without rigid requirements.
+His players must graduate. People keep throwing out the name Chris Peterson of Boise State as a candidate, but Boise is at less than 60% graduation of the players signed in 2002 and that is despite not having kids leave early for the pros.
+He cannot embarrass the school nor allow any players to do the same. Meyer's public squabbling with USC, Tennessee and yes even Notre Dame would not be appreciated, nor his recruiting kids who have committed transgressions both on and off the field. Weis lost his backup TE before the season started because the kid went streaking and then was banished from campus by the Office of Residence Life.
+He must have the attributes of a good public speaker. Holtz was a home run in this regard while the faithful could not stand the dour Devine.
+His teams must be known for toughness. Weis failed in this regard despite coming from a Patriots organization known for its toughness.

The job is even more complicated when factoring in the Catholic angle (don't have to be one--see Rockne and Parseghian--but it helps) and the cold weather (good ol' boy Southerners could have a problem).

So who could handle the position? More importantly, who would want to? Stay tuned, but Irish fans should not be too optimistic.

Remember When

While the Michigan upset of then no. 1 Ohio State at the end of the 1969 season gets its fair share of coverage, especially in Ann Arbor, the game the following year marked the first time that the two programs had not only elevated themselves above the rest of the Big Ten but were both playing for a possible national championship. Both teams entered the contest with perfect records and with three other national powers also sporting undefeated records at the time--Texas, Notre Dame and Nebraska--the Ohio State-Michigan loser would not only lose a perfect record, conference title and bowl game appearance (only one Big Ten team was allowed to go bowling back in that era), but any consideration for a national title.

As recapped in The USA Today Encyclopedia of College Football:

OHIO STATE 20 Michigan 9: Revenge was on mind of sr-dominated Ohio State (9-0), looking to turn tables on Michigan (9-1) which in 1969 inflicted most painful defeat in Buckeye history. After exchange of FGs, odd facemask PEN during line blocking ruined 71y Michigan punt by E-P Paul Staroba late in 2nd Q. Do-over resulted in good field position that allowed Buckeyes to grab 10-3 H edge as QB Rex Kern (8-12/87y, TD, INT) fired 26y TD pass to E Bruce Jankowski. But, Kern bungled scoring chance late in 2nd Q when he expelled K Fred Schram (2 FGs) from Bucks huddle, thus overriding coach Woody Hayes. Kern threw short pass to FB John Brockington, and he was tackled inbounds to end H. This unnoticed illegality made Michigan coach Bo Schembechler livid: "There is no way you can go into the huddle and come out without running a play!" UM E Staroba caught 3rd Q TD pass of 13y from QB Don Moorhead (12-26/118y, TD) and Wolverines moved to within 10-9. But, Buckeyes DB Tim Anderson knifed through to block Michigan K Dana Coin's tying kick. Ohio State's run game, which enjoyed astounding 242y to 37y advantage, dominated 4th Q as HB Leo Hayden (28/117y, TD) topped Schram's 2nd FG with 4y TD run. Now holding impressive 27-1 record over last 3 years, Buckeyes looked to capture their 2nd national title in 3 years for remarkable recruiting class of 1966 when they were to meet Stanford in Rose Bowl.

After Southern Californian beat Notre Dame, the regular season ended with Texas, Ohio State and Nebraska undefeated and ranked 1, 2 and 3 respectively. With Nebraska a clear third due to a tie with USC in September, the path to a title was clear for Ohio State. If Notre Dame beats Texas in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State wins the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes would be champions. The Irish came through with a 24-11 victory over Texas to prevent the Longhorns from winning two straight AP titles (they already won the UPI crown, which was still decided before the bowl games). But in one of the most stunning upsets in bowl game history, Stanford, led by Heisman-winning QB Jim Plunkett, beat the Buckeyes 27-17. Nebraska would go on to top LSU in the Orange Bowl 17-12 to win their first-ever AP national championship.

College Football Performance Formula

2009 College Football Performance Formula
November 18

1. Texas 1.8619
2. TCU 1.8016
3. Alabama 1.7940
4. Florida 1.7411
5. Boise State 1.6952
6. Cincinnati 1.6616
7. Ohio State 1.5900
8. Pittsburgh 1.5561
9. Louisiana State 1.5530
10. Oregon 1.5494
11. Georgia Tech 1.5338
12. Virginia Tech 1.5213
13. Penn State 1.5027
14. Iowa 1.4672
15. Oklahoma State 1.4594
16. Clemson 1.4197
17. Wisconsin 1.4099
18. BYU 1.3645
19. Nebraska 1.3537
20. Utah 1.3475
21. Houston 1.343889
22. Miami 1.343870
23. Rutgers 1.3365
24. Central Michigan 1.3130
25. Oregon State 1.3026
26. Stanford 1.3021
27. USC 1.3006
28. Arkansas 1.3004
29. Navy 1.2909
30. West Virginia 1.2836
31. Arizona 1.2776
32. Mississippi 1.2671
33. Temple 1.2646
34. Boston College 1.2567
35. California 1.2554
36. Nevada 1.2426
37. North Carolina 1.2342
38. Auburn 1.2317
39. Notre Dame 1.2238
40. Air Force 1.2097

The Performance Formula compiles a grade for each of college football's 120 FBS teams based on three stat categories: winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and scoring margin. Both winning percentage factors are adjusted down to account for wins over FCS schools, and scoring margins are diminished to avoid stat-skewing by a win or loss margin greater than 40 points. A perfectly average team will score 1.0000, while eventual national champions generally score in excess of 1.7500.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-5, Season: 20-25

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 31 (57.4%), failed to cover 23, 1 Push, 1 Even
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 234 (48.5%), failed to cover 248

Fallen to "Swami" Status

Chris "Boomer" Berman of ESPN, known as "The Swami" when picking NFL games, hasn't a serious bone in his handicapping body. A couple of weeks ago when the Buccaneers and Patriots went to London to play he picked the Patriots to win 1776 to 1588. Those would be the years of the American Revolution (Patriots) and the Defeat of the Spanish Armada (Bucs). Get it? Hey, he won the pick.

As far as we know, however, "The Swami" has never hit a break-even season in the 30 or so years Berman has played Swami.

And now, I too have fallen to a similar status after last week's 1-5 disaster. I still say the Houston Cougars as a small favorite over Central Florida and the Rice Owls as a favorite over anybody other than Western Kentucky were two of the strangest lines out of Vegas ever. Too bad I had no clue. It is games like those that prompt some wise-guys to wonder about things being on the up-and-up.

I'm a desperate picker. The reader might consider pulling a George Costanza and go completely against every natural instinct in believing my picks. But here goes.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Thursday:

Colorado +16 at OKLAHOMA STATE

"Mr. Thursday" returns with his lifetime 68-16 record (80.95%). Oklahoma State, so sexy after its early season win over Georgia but almost dismissed after losing to Houston, continues on a path to a New Years Day bowl. Colorado has pretty slipped off the face of the map, and coach Dan Hawkins likely has his bags packed. I don't usually go for spreads larger than 12 points, but I really like the Cowpokes at home. Pick: Oklahoma State -16

Saturday:

Purdue (-3.5) at INDIANA

No team in America has had the bad luck the Hoosiers have suffered. They stand at 4-7 but absolutely should have beaten Michigan and Northwestern and easily might have beaten Iowa and Penn State—Indiana had good leads into the second half each time. Purdue, also 4-7, is up and down, looking good one week (see Oregon, Ohio State and Illinois) and awful the next (see Northern Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). I feel Indiana has more to play for, has more pride, and is at home in a rivalry game. Pick: Indiana +3.5

Louisiana State (+3.5) at MISSISSIPPI

Disappointing Mississippi had their big effort last week in crushing Tennessee. The LSU Tigers at 8-2 have beaten everybody but Florida and Alabama—the polls' top two teams in the country—and have a defense faster than anything Ole Miss has pretty well seen so far. It ought to be close and entertaining, but why is LSU an underdog? I believe this is the week's biggest mismatch in Jeff Sagarin's USA TODAY ranking system. Pick: LSU +3.5

Air Force (+10) at BYU

Underrated Air Force can secure a good bowl game with a win over BYU, a team nipping at a good ranking all year. The Falcons may not win this one, and I usually like underdogs that I feel can win. More than anything, I'm going with a hunch here. Hey, logic hasn't worked out that well for me this year. Pick: Air Force +10

Paul's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009:

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 22-18

There's No Crying in Football

No, I am not directing this to New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. But once again I have read an editorial by a sportswriter, this time ESPN's Ivan Maisel, that is a grievance about the 2009 season. Maisel is bored by the match-ups this weekend—and yes it is a slow weekend—as he has by the whole season. Of course he neglects to mention that the NFL lineup for the week includes eight games with spreads larger than a TD. He complains that the biggest college game this weekend is Arizona-Oregon, but fails to notice that the biggest pro game of the weekend is Denver-San Diego (the pro equivalent of…Arizona-Oregon). He even throws the Heisman race into the picture as if a fan cannot enjoy the sport without a discussion of the race for a popularity trophy.

So, Ivan, quit your job if you do understand that any college football game could turn out to be a quality, exciting contest. The drama unfolding throughout the country on any Saturday is unpredictable and not chained to the determination of a national champion. And crying over the mediocrity of some of the bigger programs is truly sad coming from a sportswriter who should know that having USC win the Pac 10 every year is actually boring and that Notre Dame does not have any more of a claim to a top 10 ranking than TCU.

But that's enough ranting for now. Let's get on with the picks.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Friday:

Akron (+11) at BOWLING GREEN

I must be 0-20 the past few year picking MAC games so go along with me here at your own peril. I am taking Bowling Green in honor of star WR Freddie Barnes, who will catch 11 passes tomorrow night, one for each pt the Falcons are favored by. Plus the Falcons are due to win big at home, having lost three straight (but to Boise State, Ohio and Central Michigan). Pick: Bowling Green -11

Saturday:

Wisconsin (-7) at NORTHWESTERN
With the focus of attention in Big 10 country on the Big Three this season of Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State, it may be surprising to some that Wisconsin is 8-2 and Northwestern stands at 7-4. Both teams are playing well of late and the Wildcats have won the past two series games played in Evanston. There should be plenty of pts scored in this game as Northwestern will struggle to stop John Clay and the powerful Badgers rush game, while Wisconsin has allowed 28, 31 and 28 pts in their three Big Ten road games. Pick: Northwestern +7

Rutgers (-8) at SYRACUSE
The Syracuse program is tired. New coach Doug Marrone worked them hard this summer in an effort to change the culture, which also chased away some players. The team was fired up for early season contests against Big Ten teams, even managing an upset of Northwestern. But by mid-season the wheels fell off as the team's best player on O, WR Mike Williams, quit amid rumors of a failed drug test, and the best D player, DT Arthur Jones, was lost for the season with a knee injury. They are 0-5 in the Big East, having lost their best chance for a win by 1 pt to Louisville last week. Rutgers, on the other hand, heads to the Carrier Dome riding a three-game win streak. They are 3-0 on the road too, with three covers. They have won four straight on the series by an average score of 36-12 and should not be looking ahead to anything as they have Louisville on the schedule for Thanksgiving weekend. Pick: Rutgers -8

Kansas (+27.5) at TEXAS
There are a lot of hurt feelings in Lawrence as the Kansas team not only continues to lose—five straight and counting—but have their sights on the head of coach Mark Mangino being presented to them on a plate. The Jayhawks are about as far removed from their amazing 2007 season as possible. While the Longhorns have actually been covering with more ease on the road this season, they should have no problem romping here. With a win, Longhorns QB Colt McCoy will become the winningest QB in NCAA history. Get your erasers ready NCAA. Pick: Texas -27.5

SEC Mess

With Florida and Alabama already locked into their SEC Title game spots, the SEC desperately needs another team to garner media attention. Wait, they have one in that carnival sideshow of a program...Tennessee! The latest "news" is that frosh DB Nyshier Oliver was caught shoplifting an expensive polo shirt of all things from a Knoxville mall in early November. That is normally not too big of a deal as Oliver is not the first teen to swipe a shirt. But, Oliver was caught four days before coach Lane Kiffen bragged about the lack of arrests in the program, although there is some doubt as too the coach's knowledge of the incident (what is worse?). And that speech was a few days before three of Oliver's teammates attempted to rob a parked car outside a convenience store. All four of the players in question, two of whom have been thrown out of school, are members of Kiffin's first recruiting class.

These criminal misdoings have been just the latest chapter for a program that is being defined by the outrageous statements tossed out by a coach with a desperate need to get his name in the paper. Getting attention for a challenge to Florida's supremacy in the SEC East is a bit different from talking to the press about player arrests. Are these isolated incidents, or is Kiffin doing anything to win and stumbling a few times in doing so?

And Kiffin is fully aware that all of the bluster and recruiting coups and player screw ups is secondary to the product on the field. The Volunteers returned some talented players, including one of the best defenders in the country in S Eric Berry (pictured). The defense, which has played well this year until the Mississippi game, was ranked in the top five in the country last year. RB Montario Hardesty and QB Jonathan Crompton, who have paced the offense, are seniors. Going 5-5 with a schedule that featured both road games with Florida, Alabama and Mississippi and an easy non-conference schedule that consisted of home games against four teams with a combined 14-26 record is just okay. Sweeping the remaining games to go 8-5 will be better, certainly, but the Vols may have to rebuild next year after losing a great many key players after this season. That effort got tougher with the losses to the freshmen class.

Where does Tennessee go from here? They will remain aggressive in the pursuit of football talent. They say that they will be tough on their kids when the players mess up. We will see. We also know that Kiffin better start winning soon or the bluster and criminal activity will swallow up his efforts.

Big East Overview

The Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0, 9-1) have a week off. Which is a good thing as their two toughest opponents remain on a schedule that is very back heavy. The first ten games of the schedule featured some solid opponents (Navy, the September version of North Carolina State, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida and Notre Dame) and some weaklings (Youngstown State, Buffalo, Louisville and Syracuse), but no one too hard to handle. That was a good thing as QB Bill Stull was able to develop into a decent QB while quieting his detractors and the D, under new DC Phil Bennett, was able to improve from a September during which they allowed 500y to Buffalo and 530y to North Carolina State. Neither the Bulls nor the Wolfpack are at .500 this year, so months of improvement were needed on the D side before being able to take on the O talent sent on to the field by coaches of Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The D-line delivered versus the Irish and will need to lead the way in the team's remaining two Big East clashes.

The Panthers have also been fortunate to play from behind all season, despite being undefeated in conference play. That is a great position to be in as the pressure has all been on the Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0, 10-0). Cincinnati also has a week off, which is also fortunate as the entire team needs to exhale after beating Connecticut and West Virginia by a combined five pts. The closest final score in the previous eight wins for Cincy was eight (28-20 over Fresno State), so the Bearcats are clearly looking for a return to the heady play of the season's first two months as they close out this historic season with games against Illinois and Pittsburgh.

Rutgers (2-2, 7-2) meanwhile is trying desperately to continue their strong play of late as a double digit win total and meaningful bowl game are within the team's grasp. Big East bottom feeders Syracuse and Connecticut are next up for the Scarlet Knights, but both games are on the road and Rutgers, which has played well this season when under the radar, cannot suddenly spit the bit with a potential for better things hanging over their heads. They also cannot be caught looking ahead to West Virginia, to be played December 5, even though the Mountaineers' 14-game series win streak is in jeopardy this season with the two programs somewhat even.

ACC Overview

Is it me or has the ACC become somewhat predictable? After a crazy 2008 season, when an unranked ACC team beat a ranked conference team a whopping 14 times, and then turbulent start to this season with Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech and then Georgia Tech again occupying the spot as ACC's best team on a weekly basis and up-and-down performances by everyone else, the conference has settled down a bit.

Georgia Tech (7-1, 10-1) has won eight straight games and the talent-packed Coastal Division as coach Paul Johnson's ambitious plan of what could be accomplished at the program once the players fully learned his schemes has become a reality. The Yellow Jackets have averaged 39 pts per game in that stretch, despite it consisting of games against six ACC teams and 2 members of the SEC. With upcoming games against Georgia, Clemson most likely in the ACC title game and then a possible BCS game opponent, the presence of WR Demaryius Thomas (39/950y, 6 TDs) may be most important to Tech's chances of remaining in the nation's top 10. With QB Josh Nesbitt (218/847y, 16 TDs) and back Jonathan Dwyer (183/1203y, 11 TDs) pacing the rush attack, Thomas's play gives the O a dimension that is truly frightening. Thomas, who will be the rare 1,000y receiver produced by an option attack, is so physical at 6'3, 228 lbs that a defense already worried about the run cannot fully guard him with one DB. Seven times this season he has hooked up with Nesbitt on pass plays of more than 50y as the big play capability of the offense now stems from both passes and pitches (if not Nesbitt keepers).

Clemson (5-2, 7-3) must win this Saturday against Virginia, or hope Boston College loses to either North Carolina or Maryland, to clinch the Atlantic Division. Assuming that happens, the Tigers will be very confident against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game due to their play in a narrow 30-27 loss to Tech in Atlanta early in the season. Clemson trailed 24-0 in that game before rallying behind a dominant 2nd H performance in the trenches. Add to that mix the play of exhilarating RB C. J. Spiller, who has the rare ability to score a TD every time he returns a kick, takes a hand-off or receives a pass, and continued development of QB Kyle Parker, and the Tigers should give the Yellow Jackets all they can handle on December 5th in Tampa.

View From Bennett Avenue

Another Saturday, another underwhelming performance by Florida. Meanwhile Alabama, Texas, TCU and Boise continued to look great, so much so that Florida's lack of style points stand out even more. There is not much to do about it as a fan as there will be no stopping the Gators from capturing a third national title in four years if they win out, but it does allow us all to root against them. I do not remember ever rooting for the Tide--wait there was the Sugar Bowl after the 1992 season against Miami--but will do so in the SEC Championship game. I'll root for Florida State too at the end of the regular season. And then if the Gators make it to the BCS Title game, I'll root for their opponent too. Sorry, but act like a champion on and off the field and I will give you my respect.

Remember When

With much ado being made about the race for the Heisman it is important to remember that we have had plenty of other years without clear-cut contenders. Take the 1962 chase, which was won by Oregon State QB Terry Baker, who edged LSU HB Jerry Stovall 707-618. Baker and Stovall each won their respective regions, the West and the South, with neither finishing in the top 5 in their "opponent's" regional voting. But Baker beat Stovall in the East and finished higher in the Midwest vote, won by T Bob Bell of Minnesota. The surprise was that Arkansas QB Billy Moore won the Southwest vote but did not get enough votes anywhere else to finish in the top 10 of the overall calculations. Eleven different players finished in the top three of a region out of a possible 15 including C-LB Lee Roy Jordan of Alabama, second in the South, E Pat Richter of Wisconsin, second in the Midwest, and TB Eldon Fortie of BYU, second out West.

Baker won despite his inability to get Oregon State to the Rose Bowl that season or to have the 9-2 Beavers finish in the top 10. One of his two losses that season occurred on October 13 as the Beavers lost to rival Washington in a close one, as recapped in The USA Today Encyclopedia of College Football:

Washington 14 OREGON STATE 13 (Portland): As typhoon-racked city of Portland cleaned up Friday night's mess, QB Terry Baker and E Vern Burke staged Oregon State (2-2) aerial show in clear post-storm air. Burke caught 7/103y, including 2 TDs in 2nd Q that provided 13-7 lead. Washington (3-0-1) DE Lee Bernhardi recovered Beavers FUM to set up methodical 60y drive to Huskies TD. Washington HB Charlie Mitchell stretched across GL from 2YL, and C-K Jim Norton booted winning conv in last 3 mins of game.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 14, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-1, Season: 19-20

All 2009 Games

Last Week ATS:

Favorites covered 20 (40%), failed to cover 30, 1 Push

Season ATS:

Favorites covered 203 (47.4%), failed to cover 225

Just Horsin' Around

There are so many attractive lines this week that it seems proper to just horse around and go for six big picks. If I can win at least five of them, I'll venture past the awful break-even mark I've been lounging on all season.

Here are my picks for the week of November 14:

All Saturday games:

Tennessee (+4.5) at MISSISSIPPI

Some experts had Ole Miss in the top five at season's start, but the Rebels have spit the bit. Although they might have one big game in them, it is hard to see how Jevon Snead can suddenly become the star quarterback that finished last year, especially against an ever-improving Tennessee defense. Some prized Tennessee recruits are facing an armed robbery charge this week, but intense coach Lane Kiffin is the type not to let his squad suffer a letdown when the Vols are one win from locking up a bowl berth. Mississippi's best defender, end Greg Hardy, is out injured. Pick: Tennessee +4.5

Nebraska -4 at KANSAS

Nebraska has a remedial offense but a defense that might rank with the best in school annals. Kansas, losers of four straight Big 12 games, can't stop anybody's offense lately and also has spit the bit. Pick: Nebraska -4

Stanford +10.5 at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

As much as we like Stanford's style of pounding big thoroughbred Toby Gerhart at every defense, he appeared to be about out of gas at the end of the big Oregon upset last week. Can he bounce back after 233 carries in nine games? I can't see how the Cardinal team can be way up again so soon. Back home and ready to right the ship defensively, USC looks to return to old form. Pick: USC -10.5

Arizona (-1) at CALIFORNIA

The Bears were slow from the starting gate against Oregon State. Then they lost their best player, Jahvid Best, to a very scary injury. Best is at home recuperating. Don't look now, but the over-achieving Arizona Wildcats can get to their season finale against USC with the Rose Bowl on the line. I'll bet they wish they could have a do-over on that freak, edge-of-shoe, game-losing touchdown interception return perpetrated by Washington. Pick: Arizona -1

Houston (-4.5) at CENTRAL FLORIDA

What?! Houston, winners over Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State and sitting on an 8-1 record (Can you say, "New Years Day Bowl Game?"), are a measly favorite over Central Florida, that has only one win over a winning team, and that's scrawny Marshall at 5-4? A friend of mine would call this a "Vegas Sucker Bet." I call it insanity. Is Las Vegas simply horsing around to see if we're paying attention late in the season? Pick: Houston -4.5

Tulane (+2.5) at RICE

I'll own up to having watched more horse racing than Tulane games this year, an accidental five seconds of last week's Breeder's Cup vs. zero seconds of the Green Wave. Then my natural finger twitch snapped in on the TV remote and it was back to the Big Ten Network for Northwestern-Iowa. I always say, never pick a team (Tulane) you haven't given the eyeball test. But, there are 20 Texas high schools capable of beating 0-9 Rice, despite last year's 10-win season. I hate to admit that, because I've always liked the Owls, going way back to the days of Frank Ryan, King Hill, and Buddy Dial. Really, is Las Vegas just horsing around with Rice as a favorite…over anybody? Pick: Tulane +2.5

Paul's Picks for Nov. 14, 2009

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 20-16

International Bowl Here I Come!

Barely above .500, I am targeting enough wins to become eligible for a minor bowl game. I must remain focused despite minor injuries and other distractions.

Here are my picks for the week of November 14:

Smu (-7) at UTEP

Bob and I are all over Conference USA this week. The Mustangs have become competitive in year two under June Jones, but face a Miner team that has done a better job this season in the spoiler's role than as favorite. Pick: UTEP +7

Unlv (+17) at AIR FORCE

With the Rebels playing out the string in the fifth year under coach Mark Sanford, it is difficult to see them muster much of a challenge to an Air Force program that has won six of last seven in the series. The Falcons have been very good under coach Troy Calhoun at beating the teams they are supposed to beat. Pick: Air Force -17

Florida (-15.5) at SOUTH CAROLINA

Every time I pick South Carolina to step up in class and deliver a big win they disappoint me. The Gators meanwhile have already wrapped up their spot in the SEC championship game, yet will find motivation from their desire to continually embarrass former Florida coach Steve Spurrier while quieting naysayers. Pick: Florida -15.5

Utah (+19.5) at TCU

The Horned Frogs are playing at such a high level that it is difficult to pick against them. But being favored by nearly three TDs against their nemesis, Utah, winners of five of six in the series? The Utes will do their best to control the ball, limit mistakes and get in the heads of the TCU players. The pressure is on TCU with conference title, BCS bowl berth and any chance to get into the BCS title game riding on this game. Pick: Utah +19.5

View From Bennett Avenue

I just finished reading an editorial by New York Times writer Pete Thamel that lambasts college football for not instituting a playoff system. Because of a lack of a playoff system college football this season is "sputtering to the finish." The term "lackluster" is used in the headline and later in the article he negatively compares the college game to the NFL version because the NFL playoff system guarantees that "the top teams are usually left to play each other."

There is so much wrong with his analysis that I am unsure of where to begin. For one thing there is the tone, which is one of someone who does not seem to appreciate the basic joys of college football. I began a text Sunday morning to a friend, Patrick Carroll, with the line "another great day in cfb." Unlike Mr. Thamel I enjoyed a slate of games that featured a heavyweight clash between Alabama and Louisiana State, a stunning performance by Stanford in beating Oregon, wild finishes involving ranked teams such as Cincinnati, Houston, Georgia Tech and USC and upsets of Northwestern over Iowa, Navy over Notre Dame (okay, so I a lifelong ND fan did not enjoy this one too much) and Nebraska over Oklahoma. I do not know what sport he was following, but college football delivered Saturday as it does every week.

Now the three teams atop the rankings are still there and have been there all season, which is something that drives him crazy. This is where the college game gets treated unfairly by the national media, especially by those who do not understand the sport. There are some years, such as 2005, where one or two or even three schools separate themselves from the pack. In other years, like the past few, we have multiple undefeated or one-loss teams all fighting to finish in the top two of the final regular season BCS poll. Prior to the BCS, the Alabama-Florida winner and Texas would have been contracted to play in different bowl games. With that now a thing of the past, they can meet in a BCS title game reminiscent of the 2005 season when USC and Texas pulled away from the others by mid-season and then met in a memorable title game. In the NFL, we actually have the same situation as the past two seasons can illuminate. Where was the suspense two years ago when everyone was waiting to coronate the Pats from late September on? Yes the Giants upset them in the Super Bowl, but so too in 2005 did Texas (a dog of more than a touchdown) shock a Trojans squad that was being ranked with the best of all-time. What is the difference? But then last season the NFL was so wide open that a mediocre Arizona Cardinals team that lost games during the regular season by scores of 56-35, 48-20 and 47-7 reached the Super Bowl. Where is Thamel's editorial decrying the lack of excitement in the NFL this season as New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New Orleans and Arizona all look to be locks to win their respective division crowns? You get both types of seasons in both the pro and college game.

The next item on the list is that Thamel knows today, November 10, that the rest of the season lacks "a single competitive game left on the schedule that directly relates to the national title." That is completely wrong for two major reasons. One is that the games on the field have to be played out. Is it really impossible for Texas to lose to Texas A&M, who won this hard-fought series match-up two out of the last three years, and then fall behind a Cincinnati squad in the BCS standings, if the Bearcats can stay undefeated? Or for Alabama to drop road games at Mississippi State and Auburn or Florida to lost at South Carolina or to a Florida State squad playing for its aging coaching staff? He writes that there are "no elite teams" yet is upset that these three teams are running away with the national title picture. In 2006, a 10-1 USC squad was knocked out of the BCS title game on the final day of the regular season by a 6-5 UCLA team. In 2007, the final three weeks of the regular season saw massive upsets in Arizona beating Oregon, Texas Tech beating Oklahoma, Arkansas beating LSU and Pitt beating West Virginia, all of which shook up the BCS rankings. So, upsets occur. Watch the games!

The other major reason that the statement above, which mocks the rest of the regular season, is incorrect is that it misses the point about college athletics. Professional sports are set up in such a way that there is one champion and the rest of the teams are losers. The college game cannot be set up that way, and should not be set up that way. I am looking forward to next week's Ohio State game versus Iowa, which is a de facto playoff game for a spot in the Rose Bowl. Does it have any national title implications? No. Can it be a fun and competitive game? Sure. Do these two teams want to win that game more than any other because they want to win the Big Ten and get to the Rose Bowl? Absolutely. There is nothing like that in the pro game. And then the following week, Ohio State has to travel to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan squad that knows that they can restore a great deal of lost pride by upsetting the Buckeyes. Would the Redskins, let's say, want to beat the first-place Cowboys (as a Giants fan I cannot believe I typed those words) this season. Sure. Is it anywhere close to being the same as the Michigan-OSU level of emotion? Not by a mile.

Which gets back to Thamel's main argument that by not having a playoff system the college game is eliminating suspense from the end of the regular season…umm on the off years that teams pull away from the pack. That the Iowa-OSU game would be more important if the two teams were not just playing for the conference title and BCS game berth but for a shot at a playoff where they could possibly win the whole thing. But, of course, everyone is knocking the Big Ten this season. So the Big Ten's fight for a potential playoff spot would be the equivalent of this season's AFC West battle between San Diego and Denver--that is, two decent teams who do not look to be as good as some other AFC teams. Or it would if the two teams played each other in December, which they do not. In fact, San Diego's last six games are against non AFC West opponents. How stupid is that?

While a playoff system would cheapen the regular season, the main argument against it is economics. First of all you would have to have a 16-team system as there would be no way to determine at large teams fairly in an 8-team system. With eight teams the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac Ten and SEC would eat up six spots. How would you then determine the remaining two spots when, using this season as an example, you would have too many deserving teams to choose from (Boise, TCU, the SEC title game loser, etc.)? So, let's go with a 16-team playoffs with the lesser bowls being used as sites for playoff games. But that would mean that the teams from up north would have a huge disadvantage as they would be playing on the road throughout the playoffs. But more importantly, how could they fill the seats for these games? Right now the Outback Bowl grabs teams from the Big Ten and SEC and gives their fans a month to book flights, hotel rooms and rental cars for a game played when they have off from work in a place where they would want to spend a winter vacation. Now you would be telling fans of the Iowa-Ohio State game that they would play December 12 in Orlando and if they win they will play the following weekend in Dallas and then the following weekend in Pasadena. Apart from some very wealthy folks who would have to have a lot of free time, it would not work. It somewhat works for hoops, but the arenas, which do not always sell out, are much smaller and the NCAA has teams play in the same site for two games. That works in basketball where you can play twice in three days. Giving some teams home games would be good for attendance, but bad for both the visitors and the current bowl system. If Oregon hosted three to four playoff games they would be a favorite for the national title. Having to win on the road for the month of December would make it nearly impossible for the Ducks to win. And, of course, their getting a home game in round one as the Pac Ten winner while Boise would have to go on the road will get Senator Hatch and his ilk all fired up again.

So for anyone unable to be excited by the rest of this college football season, I say good riddance to you. There are plenty of fans glad to take your tickets.

View From Bennett Avenue

Saturday was a beautiful day for football here in New York City and I made the trip to the Bronx to see Fordham take on Bucknell. The Rams did win the Patriot League contest, 21-7, as QB John Skelton threw for 305y but are stuck in a fifth place tie in the conference. With two winnable games on the schedule, Fordham has a good chance to be 6-5. That is okay I guess, but more was expected from the final season of Skelton, who led Fordham to the conference crown in 2007 and is on the radar of NFL scouts.

There will soon be pressure on the Fordham program to begin dominating their Patriot League rivals as the school has decided to begin awarding scholarships and to start scheduling FBS opponents. With Navy and Army, and possibly Connecticut, on future schedules, the Fordham program needs to become more competitive. As a member of the alumni, I am lukewarm about the prospects. It will be exciting to see Fordham tangle with bigger programs, but only if they will not be embarrassed. There have always been older donors who yearned for the days of playing the best teams in the nation, but that past can never be recovered. Money spent trying and failing to relive ancient days of football glory would be better spent on a basketball program that has fallen on hard times.

Pac 10 Update

Stanford RB Toby Gerhart for Heisman? Yeah I know. He plays out West, but not for Southern California. In other words, he has no chance. But he did rush for a school record 223y against Oregon Saturday in leading Stanford to one of the bigger school wins in recent memory. Stanford is, in fact, ranked for the first time since 2001 so things are going well. And the main reason the Cardinal are 6-3, 5-2 in Pac 10 play, is the rough and tough senior back who has already broken the school record for rushing yards in a season with 1,217y. With marquis match-ups against USC, Notre Dame and Cal upcoming, Gerhart just might sneak up on voters not used to watching Stanford football.

Remember When

In honor of the career of Florida State Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews, who announced this week that he will retire at the end of the year, Remember When turns back the clock to a memorable chapter in the Florida State-Clemson rivalry. The year was 1988 and preseason number one FSU, who had fallen to no. 10 after an opening day blowout loss to Miami, was pitted against no. 3 ranked Clemson on September 17. While Andrews's D did its job well that day it was the special teams that delivered a needed victory for the Seminoles, as told by The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia:

Florida State 24 CLEMSON 21: Only adventurous Florida State (2-1) coach Bobby Bowden would go for fake punt on 4th-and-4 on own 21YL, with score knotted at 21-21, 1:31 left. CB LeRoy Butler ran 76y with ball to set up 19y FG for K Richie Andrews with 32 secs left. On play, ball was snapped to FB Dayne Williams, while P Tim Corlew pretended it went to his right and over his head. Williams placed ball between Butler's feet and then joined O-line in blocking formation to right to "protect" Corlew. Tigers fell for fake and went for Corlew, leaving entire left side open for Butler. Clemson returner-CB Donnell Woolford knocked down Butler at 1YL. Bowden later said he remembered play from Jerry Claiborne, and opted for unusual gamble because tie result would have eliminated FSU from national title picture. Tigers (2-1) had knotted game only 1 min earlier on FB Tracy Johnson's 19y run. Special teams were fruitful for Seminoles as CB Deion Sanders returned 3rd Q punt 76y for team's 2nd TD. Clemson's opening score also had been trick play: WR Chip Davis pulled up on apparent E-around run and threw 61y TD to WR Gary Cooper.

Florida State would finish the season with an 11-1 record, good for third nationally behind Notre Dame and Miami. Clemson would go 10-2 that season and finish no. 9 in the nation.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 7, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-2, Season: 18-19

All 2009 Games

Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29 (54.7%), failed to cover 24, 2 Evens, one No Line

Season ATS:
Favorites covered 183 (48.4%), failed to cover 195

Right Concept, Wrong Teams

Don't blame me for my losing Halloween picks of black-and-orange-clad Oregon State and Oklahoma State. I was right with the Halloween concept, just the wrong teams. I would have like to have picked Princeton, which beat Cornell for only the Tigers' second win of the season. Princeton is now 8-0 since World War II on Halloween.

If only coach Lane Kiffin had told "Sundaymorningquarterbacks" about the Tennessee Volunteers' first-ever donning of black jerseys to go with their orange pants. Of course, the jersey change for Halloween night came as a surprise to the team, so it was impossible to have known. If only, I guarantee we'd have jumped on the Vols in their 31-13 win over South Carolina.

Here are my picks for the week of November 7:

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EST): Ohio State (+4) at PENN STATE

Penn State is back home for the first time in three weeks, and the enormous crowd will deck itself all in white for another Beaver Stadium "white-out." Buckeyes quarterback Terrelle Pryor, without a lot of help on offense at least this season, and he'll face the toughest defense he'll see this season. Pick: Penn State -4

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EST): Louisiana State (+8) at ALABAMA
It may be surprising, but LSU's Jordan Jefferson arrives in Tuscaloosa as the higher rated quarterback than Alabama's Greg McElroy, who has recent problems in the red zone. Bama's defense is as good as it comes, however, and the Crimson Tide is on a mission, off a bye week and wanting to turn their recent 2-7 record against the Tigers. The Tide will have to scrap for every point and likely need a turnover to get an extra TD to cover eight points. Pick: Alabama -8

Paul's Picks for November 7

Paul's picks last week ATS: 2-2, Season 20-16

Doing This for a Living?

There are so many ways to come to a conclusion about any given game when factoring in a spread, whether one crunches numbers or goes with a hunch to just name two, that it is funny that we are talking about a bunch of kids here. When I was that age I could rarely be counted on to do anything with consistency. Sophomore year I do remember having my first beer each day at 10AM while watching reruns of Speed Racer. You would have had to have been crazy to gamble hard-earned money on something that I was involved in that year. Or take the 2009 Purdue Boilermakers, who have upset Ohio State and narrowly lost to both Oregon and Notre Dame. In those games they looked at times to be one of the better teams in the country. But they are 3-6 on the year and lost 37-0 last week to a solid-but-not-spectacular Wisconsin team. So when factoring in weather and injury reports and past history and whatever else you use to make your picks, it still comes down to which games a team like Purdue shows up for and which games they do not.

Here are my picks for the week of November 7:

Saturday (Noon EDT): Northwestern (+16.5) at IOWA

While I guess you can make an argument that the Hawkeyes are due for an easy win, this cardiac-inducing squad is more likely to continue to sweat out the victories. There is so much at stake for a team that is too reliant on making plays in the 4th Q that something has to give. Northwestern was playing Penn State even until QB Mike Kafka went down with an injury. He is in the starting lineup Saturday for a Wildcats team that beat Iowa in Iowa City last year and in 2006. Pick: Northwestern +16.5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Oregon (-6.5) at STANFORD

Sure Stanford is undefeated at home this year and yes you can make a strong case that Oregon is still playing their whipping of USC over and over again in their minds, but the Ducks are just too strong for a game Cardinal team. Making matters worse for the home team was the knee injury suffered in practice Tuesday by LB Clinton Snyder, the team's leading tackler, who is lost for the season. Pick: Oregon -6.5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Duke (+10) at NORTH CAROLINA

Why not ride the Blue Devils, who are 2-0 on the road in the ACC this season? They have such a huge advantage in the QB department between their own Thaddeus Lewis (188-296/2315y, 15 TDs, 4 INTs), who is red hot, and UNC's T.J. Yates (126-211/1159y, 9 TDs, 9 INTs), who lacks consistency, that this spread is out of whack. Pick: Duke +10

Saturday (7:30 p.m. EDT): Houston at TULSA (even)

Houston is doing its best to make a case for a BCS bowl. Is that motivation or pressure? Being that they still have work to do to secure the Conference USA West Division, I opt for the motivation factor. QB Case Keenum should add to his impressive season stats page against a Tulsa defense that allowed SMU frosh QB Kyle Padron to throw for 354y last week. Tulsa has played four weak teams this year (Tulane, New Mexico, San Houston State and Rice) and swept them and four teams with a pulse (Oklahoma, Boise State, UTEP and SMU) and lost all four. Pick: Houston Even

View From Bennett Avenue

Coverage of the NFL Draft on ESPN has grown from humble beginnings during the infancy of the network to a two-day affair each spring featuring a host of talking mouths. I admit to keeping an eye on the proceedings, although I tend to focus solely on the picks of my Giants.

That said, the great need for ESPN to evaluate college players during the college season largely in terms of their future draft worth is unsettling. Within minutes of reporting the suspension of Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount earlier this season, the network trotted out of their draft experts, Todd McShay, to tell us that he then considered Blount a second round talent. When Dez Bryant was suspended in mid-season for lying to the NCAA (don't get me started) we found out that he was considered the top WR prospect in the junior class. Sam Bradford? Still a top 10 talent. His teammate Jermaine Gresham, also out for the year with an injury? The top TE.

Who cares? The draft is months away and except for fans of the Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers, etc of the NFL (I will not put the Raiders in this category as fans of the Silver and Black must no longer care about a draft that never seems to help their club), hardly the focus in the fall of a fan of the NFL. I would not mind so much if this discussion of the draft futures of injured and suspended players was part of a large picture of analysis regarding the loss of these players to their teams. But no, they do not discuss the talent and experience of the guy's replacing this unfortunate crew, except for Landry Jones as he is now the Oklahoma QB. There is no discussion of changes to the playbook with these replacement players in the lineup. No analysis of the potential of opposing teams to exploit the absence of the players. Nope. There is no time for that but plenty of time to promote an event airing in five months. And this is despite the fact that these artificial rankings will change myriad times between now and April after huge factors such as the rest of the regular season, bowl games, all-star games, combines and workouts.

While most of this issue is simply annoying there is one aspect of it that is particularly troubling. When ESPN continually mentions that an underclassman is projected to go high in the draft that player may decide to go out even if he is not ready. Or that player may play differently knowing that he has NFL money waiting for him. The more they discuss the draft during the season the tougher it is for programs to keep their kids focused on the game at hand.

There is something else too that sticks in my craw. Discussing a player's worth to the NFL treats his college play as just a set-up to his future pro career. It hammers home the notion that college play is inferior to the pro game. I find that both college football and pro football are great sports. College football has so much going for it that considering it secondary to anything is ridiculous. ESPN, which has been airing college football games for a very long time, should know better.

College Football Performance Formula

Texas, second in the current BCS standings with an 8-0 won-loss record, remains on top of the College Football Performance Formula, a simple statistic-based system introduced in the 2009-10 edition of the USA Today College Football Encyclopedia, currently available where good books are sold.

The Big Twelve Conference's Texas Longhorns, who beat Oklahoma State (now with a 6-2 record), leads Florida (8-0), victors Saturday over rival Georgia. The Gators leaped past idle Alabama (8-0), while Iowa (9-0) dropped from fourth to fifth behind TCU (8-0).

The top 15 FBS schools after of November 1:

1. Texas 1.8740
2. Florida 1.7743
3. Alabama 1.7577
4. TCU 1.7324
5. Iowa 1.6909
6. Oregon 1.6841
7. Cincinnati 1.6806
8. Boise State 1.6432
9. Louisiana State 1.6012
10. Pittsburgh 1.5559
11. Penn State 1.5131
12. Ohio State 1.5073
13. Georgia Tech 1.5038
14. Virginia Tech 1.4990
15. Southern California 1.4496

The Performance Formula compiles a grade for each of college football's FBS teams based on three stat categories: winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and scoring margin.

Conference USA Recap

Poised to take over the top spot in the West Division of Conference USA should front-running Houston (3-1, 7-1) lose this weekend at Tulsa (2-2, 4-4)? None other than SMU (3-1, 4-4), who won one game in each of the past two seasons. The Mustangs need to win their game against struggling Rice to go over .500 on the season. Three of their four remaining opponents have losing records, which should help as SMU hopes to go bowling for the first time since 1984. In the second year of the rebuilding effort under coach June Jones, the Mustangs are playing competitive ball and have already upset East Carolina and Tulsa. Amazingly they pulled off the Tulsa win despite the absence of injured QB Bo Levi Mitchell as frosh QB Kyle Padron (20-30/354y) threw two TD passes to give SMU a 14-7 2nd Q lead en route to a 27-13 win.

East Carolina (4-1, 5-3) remains the class of the East Division, although they will be greatly tested tomorrow when they host an angry Virginia Tech (3-2, 5-3) squad. The Hokies have plenty of motivation as they not only dropped two straight to go from contention to a BCS bowl game to a potential spot in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but they lost to the Pirates 27-22 last year. The ECU win in 2008 was no fluke, however, as they were the better team for the majority of the game. No matter how the game goes it has been a pretty good week for the East Carolina program as former Boston College QB Dominique Davis agreed to transfer to the Pirates in the hopes of taking over next year for senior QB Patrick Pinkney, who has led the Pirates to a host of surprising wins during his time in Greenville. Pirate fans hope he can add to his resume tomorrow night.

Salute to the Big 12 North

Okay, perhaps salute is too strong a word. But the Big 12 North this year reminds me of a wild card baseball race involving three or four mediocre clubs all playing hard at season's end to earn a playoff spot. They are all still alive in the race, which is funny enough, and it can get even tighter after this Saturday if Kansas (1-3, 5-3) beats Kansas State (3-2, 5-4) as the Wildcats are the only division member with a conference record above .500. And Nebraska (2-2, 5-3) and Iowa State (2-3, 5-4), the only other North programs with at least two Big 12 victories, each have a tough opponent Saturday with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State respectively. The race can get even tighter if Missouri (1-3, 5-3) and Colorado (1-3, 2-6) win home games over Baylor, for the Tigers, and Texas A&M for the Buffs. It is possible to have all six schools within either a half game or full game of each other come Sunday.

Ridiculous you say? Well it is a far cry from the glory days of the Big 12 North when Nebraska, Kansas State and sometimes Colorado fielded powerhouse teams in the 1990s. Missouri and Kansas have been rebuilt of late and Iowa State has shown great progress this season. There is hope for the future for almost all of these programs. But before you decry the play of these six, remember professional sports teams, like the Phoenix Cardinals last season, that defy odds with a successful playoff run. The Big 12 North may be down now, but as long as they are playing the conference championship game in Arlington, Texas on December 5 the North representative has a shot. After all, the very first Big 12 title game featured the stunning upset by an unranked Texas squad over no. 3 Nebraska on December 7, 1996. So, dream big all you Wildcats, Tigers, Cyclones, Buffaloes, Cornhuskers and Jayhawks.

View From Bennett Avenue

If you are looking for big winners from Saturday beyond Oregon and Texas, who both looked powerful in prime time, search beyond the BCS. With USC and Oklahoma State going down, the number of BCS conference teams available for an at-large bid to a BCS bowl game are dwindling. For the Big East to get two teams they would need Pittsburgh to sweep their four remaining games: Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati. Of course if they did that Cincinnati would be eliminated from a potential spot in the BCS title game (which, of course, needed help). With Virginia Tech and Miami stumbling of late, the ACC will only have its champion. The Big Ten has two possibilities in Iowa and Penn State, with Ohio State a long shot and only if they look really good against the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions. With the three teams playing each other they may only get one team into a BCS bowl. The SEC will get two teams. The Big 12 is down to just Texas and the Pac 10 is just Oregon unless USC gets a lot of help. Notre Dame has not been eliminated from consideration but needs to not only sweep Navy, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Stanford but get help from others.

So, with four at-large spots available, TCU and Boise may no longer be competing against each other for just one of them the way Boise and Utah did last year. Even the Utes, should they upset TCU, and Houston are still possibilities.

Meanwhile, the non BCS bowls are awaiting the conference jumblings that will dictate where traditional powers like USC, Oklahoma, LSU (should they lose Saturday to Alabama), Ohio State, etc end up. Anyone up for Oklahoma versus LSU in the Cotton Bowl? Miami-Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl? Stay tuned.

View From Bennett Avenue

With nothing to date derailing the desired match-up of Texas and the winner of the SEC in the BCS Championship Game, the drama this season is in individual conference races. Of course one could not tell that from media coverage, which treated the USC-Oregon game as a battle to determine the best 1-loss team in the country and not a battle for Pac 10 supremacy, or spent minute after minute trying to sort out whether an undefeated Iowa or a one-loss Texas would get a BCS title spot (and that means you ESPN) if it came down to just those two teams (and if Texas lost a game) instead of an examination of the Big 10 race. Taking the lead from pro sports, in which one team is crowned champion and the rest are losers, the media is trying their damnedest to suck the life out of college football by focusing so much attention on both the two teams that will play for the title and the race for those spots.

Which is a shame. Now we all know about the fine seasons currently being enjoyed by Cincinnati, TCU, Boise, Oregon, Iowa and Georgia Tech. But how about Temple, who won for the sixth straight time yesterday and is leading the MAC East Division? Or Utah, who stands 7-1 but disappeared from the national scene after a seven-point loss at Oregon in September which does not look too bad at the moment? Or 5-3 Duke, who would win the Coastal Division of the ACC if they win out? Or Pittsburgh, 7-1 and determined to make their December 5 game against Cincinnati a de facto Big East title game? Or Arizona and Stanford, who currently stand in second and third place respectively in Pac 10 and both host Oregon in huge conference games in November? Or Nevada, still undefeated in WAC play and trying to stay that way until they meet Boise State on November 27?

I am looking forward to a great November, one that will be so even if Texas, Florida and Alabama win out.