Big Ten Review

Is there time to get on the Wisconsin bandwagon? The toughest opponents on their schedule still await them, with back to back games against Ohio State in Columbus this weekend and versus Iowa at Camp Randall the following Saturday, but the 5-0 Badgers have done some very good work this season. TB John Clay (112/582y, 7 TDs) is one of the nation’s leading rushers, while QB Scott Tolzien’s play has been a revelation. After winning a heated battle for the starting job, Tolzien completed 66% of his passes through the first five games of the season for 1043y and 9 TDs—good for a 154.65 QB rating. He’ll need to play his best this weekend, but as evidenced by his 47y run to set up the eventual winning TD versus Minnesota last week, Tolzien may even be the most dynamic two-way QB in action at The ‘Shoe Saturday.

But, of course, Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes D will have a lot to say about that. Pryor threw three TD passes and ran for a fourth last week against Indiana. With Wisconsin’s run D playing at a high level in 2009, Pryor will need to make plays through the air. Two key figures for the Badgers are DE O’Brien Schofield, who leads the team with 4.5 sacks, and S Chris Maragos, the team leader with 3 INTs. With both teams 2-0 in conference play, this game promises to be a better match-up than the Vegas line suggests.

The other big game in conference play this weekend involves the only other team unbeaten in Big Ten play, Iowa (1-0; 5-0). The Hawkeyes need to beat Michigan to go 6-0 for the first time since 1985. The Hawkeyes’ memorable 12-10 win over Michigan that season not only gave them their sixth win but kept them in the top spot in the polls. This year they host that match-up ranked no. 14. Oddly the Hawkeyes are ranked behind Penn State, despite the win by Iowa in State College two weeks ago and that by beating Arizona the week before they beat Penn State, the Hawkeyes have two victories better than anything on the PSU resume. While the cupcakes continue to be the special at Beaver Stadium with Eastern Illinois’s arrival Saturday, Iowa should finally pass the Nittany Lions in the polls with a win over Michigan. LB Pat Angerer and his D mates are playing at such a high level that Iowa should pull out the win to go 2-0 in the Big Ten.

Conference Tour Part 1

Big East
While the Big East focus the past few weeks has been, rightfully, on South Florida and Cincinnati, who will square off next week, the conference has other schools lurking in the shadows. Two such programs, Pittsburgh and Connecticut, meet Saturday afternoon at Heinz Field. The Panthers have compiled a 4-1 record while showcasing a new star in frosh RB Dion Lewis. Lewis is 5th in FBS rushing with 580y and has 7 rushing TDs with 1 receiving. The 3-1 Huskies counter with some youth of their own as soph QB Cody Endres starts at QB with Zach Frazer still not 100%, soph RB Jordan Todman leads the team in rushing with 396y and frosh WR Isiah Moore is the top receiver with 11 catches for 145y. Endres played well in the road upset of Baylor and will need to exploit the Panthers suspect pass D.

ACC
Ahh, the ACC. Fans of baseball wildcard races much really love a conference loaded with multi-loss teams knocking each other off on a weekly basis. Reader Jim J. points out that only three teams are left unbeaten in conference play: Virginia Tech (no surprise), Maryland (Huh?) and Virginia (Huh?). The Terps should bite the dust this weekend on the road against Wake Forest, but who can be sure with this collection of misfit teams? Virginia Tech hosts Boston College in an interesting match-up. The Hokies have won fairly easily against their former Big East foes in the past two conference championships, but have dropped three straight regular season games. That should change here, but the Eagles will stick around because they play sound D and have received good leadership from Dave Shinskie, their 25-year-old frosh QB. Shinskie is 2-0 as a starter and has thrown five TD passes total in wins over Wake Forest and Florida State.

SEC
Well the SEC now acknowledges that the celebration penalty called against Georgia near the end of their loss to LSU should not have happened. Will the conference now apologize for somehow bothering Georgia’s kick coverage on the ensuing kickoff, brought back by RB Trindon Holliday for 40y? Will the conference please apologize for not allowing the Bulldogs D to tackle RB Charles Scott on the winning 33y TD run two plays later? And why did the conference make Georgia QB Joe Cox throw that pick to LB Perry Riley to end the game moments later? They have a lot of explaining to do.

With that win the SEC West won round one in their battle with the East with a 4-0 record. Of course East standard bearer Florida took the weekend off. The Gators are back in the fray this Saturday with much more than division pride on the line against an LSU team that continues to win in less than pretty fashion. For the Tigers to pull off the upset they will need to protect QB Jordan Jefferson better, after allowing six sacks against Georgia, and will need to get to the Florida QB, whether it be Tim Tebow or back-up John Brantley. Remember, the Gators have lost to at least one SEC West opponent every year since 1999.

Looking like Losers in Louisville

It recently was Fashion Week in New York City, designers, models, and retailers all over the place. I know this because my wife, who dresses very well, follows this sort of thing. I follow college football and I declare this Fashion Week on Sunday Morning Quarterbacks.

Last Friday night, our on-screen DirecTV guide indicated the University of Pittsburgh football team was visiting the largest city in Kentucky to take on Big East rival University of Louisville Cardinals. But the images offered by our properly-aimed-at-the-southern-sky dish indicated something quite different. Apparently, the Panthers were visiting some odd place called “The Ville.”

Emblazoned in white on black on every Louisville jersey was this crass, in-crowd slogan of "The Ville." Many miles away, I reasoned this has become a really cool nickname perpetrated by Louisville students to make their locale feel really cool and special. I’ll begrudgingly refer to the wide-receiving-artist-formerly-known as Chad Johnson of the Cincy (See how much fun this is?) Bengals as Chad Ochocinco, because he legally changed his name. But, for crying out loud, how far can this go, this juvenile trend of placing an official stamp on some common, not cool, not special silliness?

Should Penn State paste lots of yellow smiley faces on their shoulder pads to commemorate "Happy Valley"? Can’t you just see UCLA and USC battling it out to see who can create a pant-leg display of a three-dimensional “Hollywood” sign, lit up especially for night games? If Pete Carroll gets there first, will Rick Neuheisel opt for "Welcome to La-La-land" in UCLA gold?

This could go on and on. The neighborhood around the University of Minnesota is referred to as “Dinkytown.” Charlottesville, the home of the Virginia Cavaliers, is often shortened to “C-ville.” Speaking of the Pittsburgh Panthers, how about letters wrapping around their helmet logos: "Be sure to eat a great Capacola and Cheese Sandwich at famous Primanti Bros. in the Strip District when you next visit…PITT"?

Stop it right now, Louisville Cardinals. You are only bringing attention to your recent losing ways. It could be just as easy to emblazon “Loserville” on your chests.

Perhaps “Sunday Morning Quarterbacks Fashion Week” is here as an annual event. There is so much to poke fun at.

--Bob Boyles

Stunner Not So Surprising

Kudos to Mike Price, coach of the UTEP Miners, for knocking off a Houston team that was expected to ride roughshod over Conference USA after beating not one, but two Big 12 South powers (well, second-tier powers). After all, his Miners played two Big 12 teams too, Kansas and Texas, but lost to them by a combined 98-14. This game became one of motivation as it was a lot easier for Price to get his charges fired up for a game that could turn around their season than for Houston coach Kevin Sumlin to stop his players from reading their press clippings and forecasts for “running the table.”

The notion that Houston’s performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would force the teams that knock heads with them annually in conference play to surrender to them without a fight was always odd. The talent level at UTEP and Houston is roughly the same. Playing at home and with the motivational advantages listed above make this “upset” not much of a stunner.

But of course that is what makes becoming the darling of the non BCS crowd so difficult. You have to schedule up and then win those games to get noticed, but then once noticed make sure that you take care of business in conference play. Every year we see teams get noticed in September with an upset win, begin to get written about by some pundits, and then fall to a rival or two. It happens all the time yet some pundits still fall for the illusion. If Houston is good enough to beat teams we have heard off, then they must be good enough to crush guys from El Paso or Tulsa. It will be a lot of fun if they can then travel to Mississippi State next week and knock off another team from a BCS conference.

But the main concern for the Cougars must be the Conference USA West race. They are 0-1 and not only trail 1-0 UTEP, but 1-0 SMU and more importantly 2-0 Tulsa. They do not play the Golden Hurricane until November 7, but that game is on the road. Good luck, but then again you have traveled to The Sooner State once before this season and returned with a win.

Meanwhile, Houston QB Case Keenum may have seen his long-shot Heisman race go up in flames despite throwing for 536y and 5 TDs against the 11 guys considered defenders by UTEP. It would have taken a miracle for Keenum to win and any loss will cost him the little attention he was getting. A good performance next week will not hurt, but with so many of the voters having a prejudice against guys from beyond the BCS, he is in trouble.

Remember When

From 1934 through 1991 Arkansas and Texas A&M met on the football field in a game that was always fierce, usually had some bearing on the Southwest Conference race and occasionally had national implications. After the decade of the 1960s, dominated by Frank Broyles’s Razorbacks who won 9 of 10, the two teams battled annually in a heated series that from 1970 until 1991 featured 13 Arkansas wins to 9 by the Aggies.

One such win by the Hogs occurred in the middle of the 1977 season. Arkansas, in their first season under coach Lou Holtz, entered the game played on November 12 with a no. 8 ranking. The Aggies, with their run-first offense led by head coach Emory Bellard, the father of the wishbone, were ranked no. 11. With two evenly-matched squads, the game delivered plenty of excitement. Here is the recap from The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia:

Arkansas 26 TEXAS A&M 20: With game tied at 20-20 late, Hogs (8-1) QB Ron Calcagni hooked up with WR Robert Farrell on 58y scoring pass play to stun Aggies (6-2). Texas A&M used remaining time to race to Arkansas 14YL before Razorbacks DB Patrick Martin came up with game-ending EZ INT. A&M FB George Woodard (28/116y) and HB Curtis Dickey (20/101y) topped 100y barrier, so too did RB Ben Cowins (30/111y) of Hogs. Cowins scored 2 TDs in 1st H, and K Steve Little nailed 2 FGs as Arkansas grabbed 20-10 H lead. Texas A&M came back with 10 straight pts to tie it as Woodard scored from 1y out and K Tony Franklin hit 2nd FG.

This Week's Picks

Paul’s Picks for Oct. 3, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Favorites Cover 81, Dogs Win 46, Dogs Lose but Cover 52, Push 1.

So Favorites are 81-98-1.

Last Week’s Picks: 3-1
Overall Picks: 10-8

Call Me Crazy

Over the past three weeks I have perfected the art of correctly predicting three out of four games. Will the start of a new month push me toward perfection, or send me back to mediocrity? I have a mixed bag of favorites and underdogs, home teams and roadsters for your viewing pleasure. Call me crazy but I am staying away from anything taking place on a day other than Saturday, despite some decent success with those games.

Saturday (1:00 pm EDT): Cincinnati (-28.5) at MIAMI (Ohio)
Yes I know Cincinnati is due for a letdown. They had a great September and return to Big East play with their next game and that one is on the road at perhaps their toughest competition for the Big East title—South Florida. But, there are two factors in the Bearcats favor in taking on Miami this week. For one thing, the Redhawks are pretty bad. They are 0-4 and in their sole home game, they lost to Kentucky 42-0. Plus, this is a rivalry game as the two have tangled 113 times for the Victory Bell. Bearcat backups will get to strut their stuff early in the 2nd H.

Pick: Cincinnati -28.5

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Penn State (-7) at ILLINOIS
As much as the Nittany Lions typically struggle against Iowa, they do well against Illinois. Penn State has won 13 of 16 contests overall versus the Illini, although they lost by a 27-20 score two years ago in a game played in Champaign. But that Illinois squad entered the contest on a three-game win streak and then upset no. 5 ranked Wisconsin a week later. This squad is not playing nearly as well and will greatly miss injured LB Martez Wilson. Penn State bounces back with a comfortable road win. Pick: Penn State -7.

Saturday (7:30 pm EDT): Texas A&M pick ‘em versus Arkansas (at Arlington, Texas)
There will be plenty of points scored in this contest, a return engagement for long-time rivals from the defunct Southwest Conference. When these two used to tangle the emphasis was almost always on the ground attacks. But now both teams showcase big, strapping QBs in Jerrod Johnson of the Aggies, who has thrown nine TD passes and rushed in 4 more six-pointers, and Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown seven TDs for the season. Arkansas is much more battle tested than A&M, which gives them the edge in this neutral field showdown.

Pick: Arkansas even.

Saturday (8:00 pm EDT): Oklahoma (-7) at MIAMI
QB Landry Jones has been impressive subbing for injured Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, but playing a night game in Miami against an angry bunch of Hurricanes is not quite the same as home games against Idaho and Tulsa. Miami was embarrassed one week ago at Virginia Tech and two years ago in Norman, but looks to this match in their continuing effort to regain national respect. The Sooners rarely play good nonconference opponents outside of Norman. They lost at Oregon in 2006 and at UCLA the season before in similar situations. Without Bradford and dynamic TE Jermaine Gresham, out for the year and already declared for the NFL draft, the Sooners will struggle. Pick: Miami +7

Taking a Two-Point Stance: The Power of the Safety

May it ever be so humble, sometimes there isn’t anything quite so powerful in a football game as the two-point safety.

Once upon a time in the land of three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, no coach who wanted to keep his job ever, ever thought about calling a pass play from his own end zone. The only exception would come late in the game when it became “nothing-to-lose.”

This ironclad strategy all changed in the 1990s thanks to an arrogant remark by coach Steve Spurrier, but more later on Spurrier and the current-day penchant for winging it from near his end-line.

Two teams—Connecticut and Penn State—have reason this season to regret bold decisions about flinging it from their end zones. Each suffered their only loss partly because of a key two-point safety that went against them.

In Week 2, UConn led most of the way at home against North Carolina but was tied 10-10, backed up to its 8-yard-line, and facing 3rd-and-22 with a little more than 1:30 to play in regulation. Jeez, run it up the middle, punt, and play for overtime! Instead, tackle Dan Ryan was called for holding in the end zone and the two points given away on the safety meant the Huskies had lost 12-10.

Last week, Penn State led Iowa 10-0 at home in the second quarter when it faced 3rd-and-13 from its 2-yard-line. Quarterback Daryll Clark was sacked, fumbled into the arms Nittany Lions guard Johnnie Troutman, but the safety turned the tide against Penn State. Iowa’s fine defense carried the rest of the game as the Hawkeyes pulled away in the fourth quarter to win 21-10.

It would be unfair to Iowa to say the safety cost Penn State the same way the two points cost UConn. But, both the Lions and Huskies should have made conservative calls because each have inexperienced offensive lines, each lost a star left tackle and center from last year’s team, and each was facing an opponent with a fine defensive front.

So how did Steve Spurrier change the thinking about passing from one’s own end zone? He made a bizarre comment when he coached Florida about passing from his end zone because it forced the other team to “defend the whole field.” Come again?! You can get your receivers 90 yards downfield to the far 5-yard-line and block the defense, which comes even harder when it smells a safety, for the 9.5 seconds it would require for even the fastest wide-outs to run that far? I understand you want to stretch the defense, but that defend-the-whole-field comment is truly bizarre.

Today, Spurrier is enjoying some success at South Carolina, but it is built on defensive strength, and I’ll bet he wishes his opponents would throw from their end zone.

Coaches, all of you, let’s go back to (almost) never throwing—especially on third down when the defense is snarling for a sack—from one’s own end zone.

--Bob Boyles