Big East Recap

There are two key Big East matchups for the week and neither will be played on Saturday. Cincinnati and South Florida, who are both 5-0 overall and 1-0 in conference play, meet up in Tampa. The Bearcats have won three straight in the series, all surprisingly as slight underdogs. South Florida opened as a favorite in this contest too, which bodes well for the high-flying visitors. This game pits the excellent D of the Bulls against Cincinnati QB Tony Pike and his favorite receiver, WR Mardy Gilyard. Pike has thrown for 1,493y and 13 TDs this season, with Gilyard catching 38 passes for 517y and 7 TDs. South Florida needs to get pressure on Pike and take advantage of something that has plagued the Bearcats this year because of their great success: the amount of time the Cincinnati D spends on the field thanks to some quick scoring drives by the O. If the Bulls can run the ball effectively and force Cincy into some quick 3-and-outs while surrendering a limited number of quick scoring drives, the South Florida O may be able to exploit a tired Bearcats D. Young QB B.J. Daniels does not have to match Pike pass for pass for the Bulls to win; his key is to keep the ground game humming. The stakes are high in this game for both the teams and the conference.

At this time last year Cincinnati, the eventual conference champion, was under the radar due to an unsettled QB position and an early season blowout loss to Oklahoma. They would lose their second Big East game of the year to Connecticut by the stunning score of 40-16. In other words, conference championships are won in November. That said, Rutgers (4-1, 0-1) can get back into the conference race with a home win over Pittsburgh (5-1, 2-0). The Scarlet Knights rightfully fell off the map after being trounced at home in week one by Cincinnati, 47-15. Frosh QB Tom Savage is the present and future for RU, while the D needs to prove that they can stop a legitimate O after last week’s shutout of Texas Southern. For the Panthers, the pressure is on to maintain pace with whichever team wins Thursday night. Pitt was in the same position last year when they met Rutgers, having won five of six games overall and sporting a 2-0 conference record. They lost 54-34 to drop their 4th straight in the series. Needless to say they will not be looking ahead to South Florida, their next opponent. QB Bill Stull is the key for the visitors as he was having a very good season until getting rattled a bit in the narrow win over UConn.

View From Bennett Avenue

It was only a couple of years ago that the Notre Dame schedule was lambasted for the presence of the service academies. Forget for a moment that these programs are on the schedule in place of FCS schools or low-ranking members of non-BCS conferences. And forget for a moment that Navy and Air Force have been bowl teams more often than not in recent years. The term “service academy” was synonymous with weak football.

Is it time to rewrite that tired script? Navy, Army and Air Force put on a great display of disciplined football this past Saturday and came away with two impressive wins and a narrow loss to a highly-ranked foe. Navy bumped their won-loss record to 4-2 with a 63-14 rout of Rice in Houston. Dazzling QB Ricky Dobbs, who first made a name for himself in the team’s near win over Ohio State to open the season, rushed for 104y and 4 TDs. Army evened their mark to 3-3 with a 16-13 OT upset of Vanderbilt, a program from the big, bad SEC who went bowling last year. The Cadets chewed up 222y on the ground to stay even with the Commodores until a huge forced FUM by the D in the first extra session was followed by the winning 42y FG (pictured) by K Alex Carlton. Air Force is also 3-3 after a narrow 20-17 loss to unbeaten TCU. The Falcons stayed close in the Mountain West battle thanks to a 3-0 win in the TO department.

The more complicated the schemes become for college football on both offense and defense, the better it is for the academies. While their opposition struggles to learn a playbook the size of a phone book or the myriad differences between a host of new-fangled formations, the players from Army, Navy and Air Force can run their plays in their sleep they repeat them so often. And the kids they see on the opposing side of the ball have not been prepared adequately to face them. Teams are now built around both passing the ball on O and defending the pass on D. Playing the option? Not in the discussion. Plus we have been hearing for years that the academies are not supposed to compete against programs that have physical advantages, more NFL-type players. Well TCU DE Jerry Hughes is a both an All America candidate and a pro prospect. Against Air Force he managed 1 assist. And ask the Ohio State Buckeyes if they would want to face Navy again anytime soon.

In addition to the academies and their squads and their coaches, let’s give some kudos to CBSCS network for their dedication to the presentation of Army, Navy and Air Force sports. With ESPN not caring too much about their games, these programs have joined forces with CBSCS. And the network, who has gone through as many name changes as Jennifer Lopez over the years, built up this past Saturday as a chance to watch all three teams in action on Armed Forces Appreciation Day. With a week’s worth of build-up—we loved watching some Navy highlights of teams from the ‘50s and ‘60s—the network then got a deserved break with some exciting action on Saturday. Well with two of the games anyway as the Navy rout was not much fun to watch. Then Army won that crazy game with Vanderbilt in which both kickers knocked FGs in off the upright at game’s end. And Air Force rallied from a 14-0 deficit, when the Horned Frogs looked to out-talent them out of Falcon Stadium, with spirited play.

It was fun to watch, which was a bonus for fans of these players who will one day very soon have more to worry about than where Jerry Hughes is on every play.

After Midnight

Usually our “After Midnight” posts focus on late night happenings on the West Coast, but last night bad weather in the Florida Panhandle forced the Florida State-Georgia Tech game into a long delay and an after midnight finish.

It was a long night, almost as long as coach Bobby Bowden’s week. Saturday didn’t help him one bit as afterward he admitted to ESPN cameras: “We just couldn’t stop them.” That’s for sure. Georgia Tech gained 401 yards rushing and 532 yards in total offense on the way to a 49-44 victory over the fading Seminoles, now 2-4 and 0-3 in the ACC.

It is hard to see how Bowden is going to survive past this season. If he is to be bounced by Florida State by season’s end, he would seem to have no chance of catching Joe Paterno as the all-time winningest Division I coach. Penn State’s Paterno, a winner earlier in the day over feeble Eastern Illinois of the FCS, leads Bowden 388 wins to 383. Both coaches have six regular season games left this year.

This brings up a point that has irritated us for awhile. Nothing against Bowden; he has been a great ambassador for college football. But, how in the world has the NCAA counted his 31 victories in 1959-62 at Howard College (now known as Samford University)? When Bowden coached his alma mater Howard, the school played in what was called the College Division. The higher University Division not only included the major powers of what we now call the FBS (I-A) but also many of the schools that make up the current FCS (I-AA), such teams as Furman, Montana, Villanova, and the Ivy League schools. When Barry Bonds approached Henry Aaron’s career home run record, did baseball count in Bonds’ minor league round-trippers? Of course not. So why count Bowden’s wins over Millsaps and Sewanee? In reality Bowden trails Paterno 352 to 388.

No “After Midnight” post can go without strange circumstances occurring on the “Left Coast” and last night’s Washington-Arizona tilt from Seattle was no exception.
Young, blond Texan quarterback Nick Foles played a brilliant third quarter and two-thirds of the fourth quarter to put his Arizona Wildcats in control of the game at 33-21 as the fourth quarter wound down.

Foles’ Huskies counterpart, Jake Locker, managed a TD pass with less than three minutes left to pull Washington to within 33-28. Hoping to force a punt and get one last chance, UW booted long on its kickoff.

On first down, Foles tried a delayed short slant-in pass to his wide receiver Delashaun Dean. Foles’ throw was low and behind his target. In attempting to make the catch, Dean lurched backwards and dug out a pop-up of the low pass that arrived just off the ground. The soft carom went off the edge of Dean’s foot and looped in a perfectly-timed arch to Washington linebacker Mason Foster (on right in above photo). Having mistakenly run past Dean (into the Arizona backfield) on his coverage, Foster curled back to catch the interception, then reversed his field for a stunning 37-yard touchdown return. When Locker lobbed a two-point pass, Washington had a 36-33 lead it would hold for the last two minutes.

Foster’s interception had to be one of the most bizarre, late game-deciding plays that ever occurred. But that’s what often happens out West while the East happily sleeps.

--Bob Boyles

Remember When

After meeting twice in the mid ‘40s, Syracuse and West Virginia began playing on an annual basis in 1955. The rivalry was defined by hard play as the teams knocked heads together in games that were almost as much about proving toughness as they were about wins and losses. Today the two Big East rivals play for the Schwartzwalder Trophy, named for long-time Syracuse coach Ben Schwartzwalder who played at West Virginia.

The 1955 game pitted two solid Eastern squads searching for national recognition. Each team featured a future Hall of Famer in great Syracuse back Jim Brown and Mountaineer lineman Sam Huff, who began their famous rivalry on this day. Here is the action from 54 years ago (11/19/55) as depicted in The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia:

Syracuse 20 WEST VIRGINIA 13: Short-handed due to injuries from its bruising defeat to Pittsburgh, West Virginia (7-2) was unable to use its alternating units. It showed as Syracuse (5-3) HB Jimmy Brown wore down Mountaineers D in steady snowstorm, and Brown did it right from the start, going 71y with opening KO. Orangemen failed to score on that opportunity thanks to holding PEN but stayed steady despite slipping behind 13-6 at H. West Virginia scored on HB Joe Marconi’s 6y sweep early in 2nd Q after HB Bob Moss’ 64y spurt, saw Orange tie it on QB Eddie Albright’s short TD keeper, and went ahead late in 2nd Q on QB Mickey Trimarki’s 24y pass to HB Ralph Anastasio. WVU made nary single 1st down in 2nd H until last 2 mins. By then it was too late as Albright launched TD passes of 47y to E Jim Ridlon and 12y to E Dick Lasse.

Oddly, the Orange became ranked at no. 20 in the AP Poll after this win in their final game of the season. West Virginia would beat a mediocre North Carolina State squad one week later and then take the no. 19 spot in the final poll from November 28. Syracuse dropped out despite having beaten the Mountaineers nine days earlier. And you thought the polls were screwy today!

Weekly Picks

Bob’s Picks for Oct. 10, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 10-13

All Games listed in Danny Sheridan’s “Today’s Lines” column
Last Week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 28, one “Push” (tie), one Even
Season ATS: Favorites covered 101, failed to cover 126

Gotta know when to hold ‘em

Picking games against the point-spread is plenty difficult and even worse when bookies handle your action, legally or illegally. Truth is, bookies keep all your losses and 10 percent of your winnings—known as “Viggerish”—and the “Vig” keeps the professionals prospering in a dandy business. Best to pick games ATS just for fun.

In addition to picking winners, there is an additional challenge: Knowing what games to stay away from. That is, “knowing when to hold ‘em,” as the old Kenny Rogers song went.

There are two truly fascinating contests this Saturday because of events leading up to the games. Those would be Florida at LSU and Georgia Tech at Florida State. I’m telling you: “Stay away!”

The playing status of former Heisman-winning Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is questionable due to the concussion he suffered two weeks ago. It would seem Tebow will be held out against LSU, but even if he plays one wonders how effective he can be, given his wonderful slam-bang style. That’s a strike against the top-ranked Gators, a 7.5 favorite on the road at Tiger Stadium against no. 4 LSU. On the other hand, Florida’s outstanding defense, inspired so often by Tebow in the past, might just rise up to muzzle the Tigers’ still-developing offense.

Then there is undefeated LSU, a tremendous home team with its own outstanding defense. Computer whiz Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings, found every Tuesday in USA TODAY, give the Tigers a 10.05 advantage over Florida, one of the largest edges this weekend. Usually a 6-point advantage in Sagarin numbers is significant enough to earn serious consideration for the higher rated team.

Over in Tallahassee, veteran coach Bobby Bowden of 2-3 Florida State has had a very tough week as the chairman of the board of trustees essentially said he wants Bowden out by season’s end.

Georgia Tech, a somewhat up-and-down team this year but up significantly the last two weeks, would look like a spectacular choice as a 2.5 underdog in an ordinary week. But, can’t you just see the Seminole players performing out of their minds for a beloved coach? If Georgia Tech can use its dynamic running game to get ahead by a couple of touchdowns, an emotional Florida State might collapse. Who can tell about the Seminoles who were bad enough nearly to be beaten by Jacksonville State and good enough to go all the way to Utah to smash undefeated Brigham Young?

Both games ought to be fascinating, but simply too tough to call.
So, here is what I think is safer to choose:

Saturday (Noon EDT): Purdue (-3.5) at MINNESOTA
Even though the Golden Gophers are 1-2 in their new on-campus home, they have played pretty well. On the horizon is a pair of road trips to Penn State and Ohio State and a visit from rebounding Michigan State. Minnesota simply has to win this game, right now. Fading Purdue was bitten in tough losses to Oregon and Notre Dame and currently is suffering a four-game slide. It could get worse. Pick: Minnesota -3.5

Saturday (12:20 pm EDT): Georgia (Even) at TENNESSEE
A month ago I thought Tennessee might beat UCLA—the Vols lost—and lose to Florida—the Vols lost but played tough—and if the Vols could earn a split in back-to-back home games against Auburn and Georgia, Tennessee had a chance at winning eight games. The Vols lost to Auburn last week, so this is an important contest. And despite all the bombast, coach Lane Kiffin has done a decent job with a team that lost seven games last year. That said I can’t get over that Georgia, a mild disappointment, still is playing better than Tennessee, and Vols QB Jonathan Crompton is having a terrible year. Pick: Georgia Even

Saturday (12:30 pm EDT): Houston (+1) at MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Maroon Bulldogs are improving, but Houston, a passing powerhouse behind quarterback Case Keenum, ought to be able to outscore Mississippi State. Still, Houston’s run defense got gored last week at Texas-El Paso and will have to shore up against the nation’s 16th-leading rushing offense of the Bulldogs. Pick: Houston +1

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Navy (-11.5) at RICE
Winless Rice might have lost more irreplaceable players off last year’s squad than any team in the nation: QB Chase Clement, the Owls’ all-time passing yardage leader, WR Jarrett Dillard, Rice’s all-time leading pass receiver, and TE James Casey, Rice’s fourth all-time leader in receiving yards who caught 111 passes for 1,329 yards in 2008. This year’s Owls have lost by an average margin of 23.6 points in five defeats. This is no time to welcome Navy’s well-drilled ball-control offense, 6th-best in the nation. Pick: Navy -11.5

Paul’s Picks for Oct. 10, 2009:

Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 13-9

Put up or shut up

We are at the point in any college football season when teams that have produced startling early season won-loss records have to prove that they are legitimate conference title challengers. Teams like undefeated Auburn, for example, need to translate their successful start to the season into long-term prosperity as the pressure increases.

Wisconsin is one such team that has had recent struggles as the trees around Camp Randall begin to turn color. Last year the Badgers failed to capitalize on a 3-0 start by dropping their first four Big Ten games. Two years ago Wisconsin opened the season with five straight victories to move all the way up to no. 5 in the country before dropping out of the rankings entirely with two straight losses. Can they reverse this recent trend by returning home from Columbus with an upset victory?

What’s beautiful about betting/making predictions for fun is that it almost does not matter. If the Badgers play hard but lose by 10 points, they will drop to 5-1 for the season and remain unranked. But, those fans picking Wisconsin will get the W as the Badgers are 16-point underdogs. I love those talented dogs.

Here are my picks for the week with the focus on finding value from games with point spreads that are a bit off.

Saturday (Noon EDT): Boston College (+13) at VIRGINIA TECH
For the past two seasons Boston College has beaten Virginia Tech in the regular season before losing to them in a rematch in the ACC title game. Many college football fans around the country have viewed this as a case of BC getting lucky in mid-season before the talent of the Hokies shone through with a BCS berth on the line. Phooey I say as the Eagles have built a program featuring tough, hard-nose players who give full effort no matter where they play. Add in the boost to the O given by 25-year-old QB Dave Shinskie the past two games (31-51/439y, 5 TDs, INT vs Wake and FSU) and the Eagles play the Hokies tight. Pick: Boston College +13.

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Indiana (+6) at VIRGINIA
Both FBS teams from the Commonwealth State are home this weekend and both are favored by too many points. The season for the Cavs was spiraling out of control before the squad righted the ship with a big win at UNC. Now they go home where they have lost four straight games over the past two seasons to find an improved Hoosiers squad. Indiana has already beaten Akron on the road and narrowly lost to Michigan away from home. Happy that they do not see Buckeye defenders staring their way, the Hoosiers O will bounce back. They can easily win this game, which is a factor when picking underdogs. Pick: Indiana +6

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Wisconsin (+16) at OHIO STATE
Wisconsin has enough on D to play with Ohio State’s middling O. The question for the Badgers is whether their mix of veterans and impressive new starters on O can penetrate the excellent Buckeyes D. Big RB John Clay is a load against any front seven and veteran targets like TE Garrett Graham and WR Nick Toon will make things easier for QB Scott Tolzien as Wisconsin hangs tough. After winning three of four games in this series earlier this decade, the Badgers have lost consecutive games to the Buckeyes. But again, they do not have to win this one to prove the spread too large. Pick: Wisconsin +16

Saturday (10:00 pm EDT): Arizona (-3) at WASHINGTON
Well Arizona, this is it. Do you want to improve on last year’s solid, but little known, 8-5 record? Do you want to contend for the Pac 10 title? Get ranked? Play in January? Well, do not blow this game. With a week to prepare, the Wildcats return to the Pacific Northwest for the second time this season with the goal of a second Pac 10 road win. Soph QB Nick Foles has been very impressive and stud RB Nic Grigsby returns from injury to face a Husky D that is not very good against the run. Washington does have the outstanding QB-RB pairing of Jake Locker and Chris Polk and the same happy home environment that helped produce the USC shocker, but an emotional letdown after the close loss to Notre Dame while Arizona was resting will lead to a double figure loss to the underrated Wildcats. Pick: Arizona -3.

Pac 10 Update

It will be a tale of injured QBs at the Rose Bowl this weekend for the marquee Pac 10 match-up. UCLA (0-1; 3-1) QB Kevin Prince returns to the starting lineup after breaking his jaw in game two of the season. Prince’s play is crucial for UCLA’s chances as he can better exploit a banged up Oregon (2-0; 4-1) D secondary which has lost DBs Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper for the season and is hoping to get back injured S T.J. Ward for this game. CB Anthony Gildon will need to step up as he began the season third string before moving up thanks to injuries to Thurmond and Glasper. The Ducks have not faced a QB who could exploit this issue and have to pressure Prince so that he does not have a big game. For the Ducks, QB Jeremiah Masoli is also hurt and sub Nate Costa—himself returning from torn ACL suffered in August of 2008--gets the start. Oregon goes through multiple QBs on an annual basis and Costa is a good one so look for the Ducks to remain aggressive on O with Costa running less than Masoli but throwing downfield more.

Forecasting the playing future of suspended Ducks RB LeGarrette Blount became a bit easier this week as coach Chip Kelly opened the door for a Blount return. In September he and Costa formed an awesome scout team combination. By November we might be saying the same thing about Masoli and the team’s leading rusher LaMichael James.

Big 12 News

The suspension of Oklahoma State (0-0; 3-1) WR Dez Bryant is the focal point of the conference news for this week. Bryant was canned by the NCAA for lying about working out at Neon Deion’s house. With normal sports leagues I would assume that there was more to the story then it appears, with the NCAA I am not so sure. Removing Bryant from the Cowboys for something less than serious is damaging their chances as the Big 12 schedule kicks into gear. If he gets reinstated down the line, the key date is October 31 when Texas (1-0; 4-0) comes to Stillwater. With RB Kendall Hunter banged up, the explosive Cowboys are suddenly looking a bit short for Saturday’s game versus Texas A&M (0-0; 3-1).

Rain is expected to greatly affect the playing conditions for tonight’s Missouri (0-0; 4-0)-Nebraska (0-0; 3-1) game. The Cornhuskers should have the advantage in a quagmire with their strong line play on both sides of the ball and good ground game led by Roy Helu, Jr., but do not underestimate the damage to be done by all the tall receiving targets on the Missouri side of the ball. With so much riding on this match-up of Big 12 North contenders, look for the TO battle to become crucial. Missouri’s soph QB Blaine Gabbert has yet to throw a pick in his first year as starter, but he has never tangled with the likes of DT Ndamukong Suh and the rest of a fierce Husker pass rush. Gabbert is the leading side story to this game as he originally committed to Nebraska coming out of high school only to change to Missouri after Nebraska fired coach Bill Callahan. Nebraska surely could use him as they try to snap a streak of seven straight losses on the road against ranked opponents.