Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 7, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-2, Season: 18-19

All 2009 Games

Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29 (54.7%), failed to cover 24, 2 Evens, one No Line

Season ATS:
Favorites covered 183 (48.4%), failed to cover 195

Right Concept, Wrong Teams

Don't blame me for my losing Halloween picks of black-and-orange-clad Oregon State and Oklahoma State. I was right with the Halloween concept, just the wrong teams. I would have like to have picked Princeton, which beat Cornell for only the Tigers' second win of the season. Princeton is now 8-0 since World War II on Halloween.

If only coach Lane Kiffin had told "Sundaymorningquarterbacks" about the Tennessee Volunteers' first-ever donning of black jerseys to go with their orange pants. Of course, the jersey change for Halloween night came as a surprise to the team, so it was impossible to have known. If only, I guarantee we'd have jumped on the Vols in their 31-13 win over South Carolina.

Here are my picks for the week of November 7:

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EST): Ohio State (+4) at PENN STATE

Penn State is back home for the first time in three weeks, and the enormous crowd will deck itself all in white for another Beaver Stadium "white-out." Buckeyes quarterback Terrelle Pryor, without a lot of help on offense at least this season, and he'll face the toughest defense he'll see this season. Pick: Penn State -4

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EST): Louisiana State (+8) at ALABAMA
It may be surprising, but LSU's Jordan Jefferson arrives in Tuscaloosa as the higher rated quarterback than Alabama's Greg McElroy, who has recent problems in the red zone. Bama's defense is as good as it comes, however, and the Crimson Tide is on a mission, off a bye week and wanting to turn their recent 2-7 record against the Tigers. The Tide will have to scrap for every point and likely need a turnover to get an extra TD to cover eight points. Pick: Alabama -8

Paul's Picks for November 7

Paul's picks last week ATS: 2-2, Season 20-16

Doing This for a Living?

There are so many ways to come to a conclusion about any given game when factoring in a spread, whether one crunches numbers or goes with a hunch to just name two, that it is funny that we are talking about a bunch of kids here. When I was that age I could rarely be counted on to do anything with consistency. Sophomore year I do remember having my first beer each day at 10AM while watching reruns of Speed Racer. You would have had to have been crazy to gamble hard-earned money on something that I was involved in that year. Or take the 2009 Purdue Boilermakers, who have upset Ohio State and narrowly lost to both Oregon and Notre Dame. In those games they looked at times to be one of the better teams in the country. But they are 3-6 on the year and lost 37-0 last week to a solid-but-not-spectacular Wisconsin team. So when factoring in weather and injury reports and past history and whatever else you use to make your picks, it still comes down to which games a team like Purdue shows up for and which games they do not.

Here are my picks for the week of November 7:

Saturday (Noon EDT): Northwestern (+16.5) at IOWA

While I guess you can make an argument that the Hawkeyes are due for an easy win, this cardiac-inducing squad is more likely to continue to sweat out the victories. There is so much at stake for a team that is too reliant on making plays in the 4th Q that something has to give. Northwestern was playing Penn State even until QB Mike Kafka went down with an injury. He is in the starting lineup Saturday for a Wildcats team that beat Iowa in Iowa City last year and in 2006. Pick: Northwestern +16.5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Oregon (-6.5) at STANFORD

Sure Stanford is undefeated at home this year and yes you can make a strong case that Oregon is still playing their whipping of USC over and over again in their minds, but the Ducks are just too strong for a game Cardinal team. Making matters worse for the home team was the knee injury suffered in practice Tuesday by LB Clinton Snyder, the team's leading tackler, who is lost for the season. Pick: Oregon -6.5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Duke (+10) at NORTH CAROLINA

Why not ride the Blue Devils, who are 2-0 on the road in the ACC this season? They have such a huge advantage in the QB department between their own Thaddeus Lewis (188-296/2315y, 15 TDs, 4 INTs), who is red hot, and UNC's T.J. Yates (126-211/1159y, 9 TDs, 9 INTs), who lacks consistency, that this spread is out of whack. Pick: Duke +10

Saturday (7:30 p.m. EDT): Houston at TULSA (even)

Houston is doing its best to make a case for a BCS bowl. Is that motivation or pressure? Being that they still have work to do to secure the Conference USA West Division, I opt for the motivation factor. QB Case Keenum should add to his impressive season stats page against a Tulsa defense that allowed SMU frosh QB Kyle Padron to throw for 354y last week. Tulsa has played four weak teams this year (Tulane, New Mexico, San Houston State and Rice) and swept them and four teams with a pulse (Oklahoma, Boise State, UTEP and SMU) and lost all four. Pick: Houston Even

View From Bennett Avenue

Coverage of the NFL Draft on ESPN has grown from humble beginnings during the infancy of the network to a two-day affair each spring featuring a host of talking mouths. I admit to keeping an eye on the proceedings, although I tend to focus solely on the picks of my Giants.

That said, the great need for ESPN to evaluate college players during the college season largely in terms of their future draft worth is unsettling. Within minutes of reporting the suspension of Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount earlier this season, the network trotted out of their draft experts, Todd McShay, to tell us that he then considered Blount a second round talent. When Dez Bryant was suspended in mid-season for lying to the NCAA (don't get me started) we found out that he was considered the top WR prospect in the junior class. Sam Bradford? Still a top 10 talent. His teammate Jermaine Gresham, also out for the year with an injury? The top TE.

Who cares? The draft is months away and except for fans of the Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers, etc of the NFL (I will not put the Raiders in this category as fans of the Silver and Black must no longer care about a draft that never seems to help their club), hardly the focus in the fall of a fan of the NFL. I would not mind so much if this discussion of the draft futures of injured and suspended players was part of a large picture of analysis regarding the loss of these players to their teams. But no, they do not discuss the talent and experience of the guy's replacing this unfortunate crew, except for Landry Jones as he is now the Oklahoma QB. There is no discussion of changes to the playbook with these replacement players in the lineup. No analysis of the potential of opposing teams to exploit the absence of the players. Nope. There is no time for that but plenty of time to promote an event airing in five months. And this is despite the fact that these artificial rankings will change myriad times between now and April after huge factors such as the rest of the regular season, bowl games, all-star games, combines and workouts.

While most of this issue is simply annoying there is one aspect of it that is particularly troubling. When ESPN continually mentions that an underclassman is projected to go high in the draft that player may decide to go out even if he is not ready. Or that player may play differently knowing that he has NFL money waiting for him. The more they discuss the draft during the season the tougher it is for programs to keep their kids focused on the game at hand.

There is something else too that sticks in my craw. Discussing a player's worth to the NFL treats his college play as just a set-up to his future pro career. It hammers home the notion that college play is inferior to the pro game. I find that both college football and pro football are great sports. College football has so much going for it that considering it secondary to anything is ridiculous. ESPN, which has been airing college football games for a very long time, should know better.

College Football Performance Formula

Texas, second in the current BCS standings with an 8-0 won-loss record, remains on top of the College Football Performance Formula, a simple statistic-based system introduced in the 2009-10 edition of the USA Today College Football Encyclopedia, currently available where good books are sold.

The Big Twelve Conference's Texas Longhorns, who beat Oklahoma State (now with a 6-2 record), leads Florida (8-0), victors Saturday over rival Georgia. The Gators leaped past idle Alabama (8-0), while Iowa (9-0) dropped from fourth to fifth behind TCU (8-0).

The top 15 FBS schools after of November 1:

1. Texas 1.8740
2. Florida 1.7743
3. Alabama 1.7577
4. TCU 1.7324
5. Iowa 1.6909
6. Oregon 1.6841
7. Cincinnati 1.6806
8. Boise State 1.6432
9. Louisiana State 1.6012
10. Pittsburgh 1.5559
11. Penn State 1.5131
12. Ohio State 1.5073
13. Georgia Tech 1.5038
14. Virginia Tech 1.4990
15. Southern California 1.4496

The Performance Formula compiles a grade for each of college football's FBS teams based on three stat categories: winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and scoring margin.

Conference USA Recap

Poised to take over the top spot in the West Division of Conference USA should front-running Houston (3-1, 7-1) lose this weekend at Tulsa (2-2, 4-4)? None other than SMU (3-1, 4-4), who won one game in each of the past two seasons. The Mustangs need to win their game against struggling Rice to go over .500 on the season. Three of their four remaining opponents have losing records, which should help as SMU hopes to go bowling for the first time since 1984. In the second year of the rebuilding effort under coach June Jones, the Mustangs are playing competitive ball and have already upset East Carolina and Tulsa. Amazingly they pulled off the Tulsa win despite the absence of injured QB Bo Levi Mitchell as frosh QB Kyle Padron (20-30/354y) threw two TD passes to give SMU a 14-7 2nd Q lead en route to a 27-13 win.

East Carolina (4-1, 5-3) remains the class of the East Division, although they will be greatly tested tomorrow when they host an angry Virginia Tech (3-2, 5-3) squad. The Hokies have plenty of motivation as they not only dropped two straight to go from contention to a BCS bowl game to a potential spot in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but they lost to the Pirates 27-22 last year. The ECU win in 2008 was no fluke, however, as they were the better team for the majority of the game. No matter how the game goes it has been a pretty good week for the East Carolina program as former Boston College QB Dominique Davis agreed to transfer to the Pirates in the hopes of taking over next year for senior QB Patrick Pinkney, who has led the Pirates to a host of surprising wins during his time in Greenville. Pirate fans hope he can add to his resume tomorrow night.

Salute to the Big 12 North

Okay, perhaps salute is too strong a word. But the Big 12 North this year reminds me of a wild card baseball race involving three or four mediocre clubs all playing hard at season's end to earn a playoff spot. They are all still alive in the race, which is funny enough, and it can get even tighter after this Saturday if Kansas (1-3, 5-3) beats Kansas State (3-2, 5-4) as the Wildcats are the only division member with a conference record above .500. And Nebraska (2-2, 5-3) and Iowa State (2-3, 5-4), the only other North programs with at least two Big 12 victories, each have a tough opponent Saturday with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State respectively. The race can get even tighter if Missouri (1-3, 5-3) and Colorado (1-3, 2-6) win home games over Baylor, for the Tigers, and Texas A&M for the Buffs. It is possible to have all six schools within either a half game or full game of each other come Sunday.

Ridiculous you say? Well it is a far cry from the glory days of the Big 12 North when Nebraska, Kansas State and sometimes Colorado fielded powerhouse teams in the 1990s. Missouri and Kansas have been rebuilt of late and Iowa State has shown great progress this season. There is hope for the future for almost all of these programs. But before you decry the play of these six, remember professional sports teams, like the Phoenix Cardinals last season, that defy odds with a successful playoff run. The Big 12 North may be down now, but as long as they are playing the conference championship game in Arlington, Texas on December 5 the North representative has a shot. After all, the very first Big 12 title game featured the stunning upset by an unranked Texas squad over no. 3 Nebraska on December 7, 1996. So, dream big all you Wildcats, Tigers, Cyclones, Buffaloes, Cornhuskers and Jayhawks.

View From Bennett Avenue

If you are looking for big winners from Saturday beyond Oregon and Texas, who both looked powerful in prime time, search beyond the BCS. With USC and Oklahoma State going down, the number of BCS conference teams available for an at-large bid to a BCS bowl game are dwindling. For the Big East to get two teams they would need Pittsburgh to sweep their four remaining games: Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati. Of course if they did that Cincinnati would be eliminated from a potential spot in the BCS title game (which, of course, needed help). With Virginia Tech and Miami stumbling of late, the ACC will only have its champion. The Big Ten has two possibilities in Iowa and Penn State, with Ohio State a long shot and only if they look really good against the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions. With the three teams playing each other they may only get one team into a BCS bowl. The SEC will get two teams. The Big 12 is down to just Texas and the Pac 10 is just Oregon unless USC gets a lot of help. Notre Dame has not been eliminated from consideration but needs to not only sweep Navy, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Stanford but get help from others.

So, with four at-large spots available, TCU and Boise may no longer be competing against each other for just one of them the way Boise and Utah did last year. Even the Utes, should they upset TCU, and Houston are still possibilities.

Meanwhile, the non BCS bowls are awaiting the conference jumblings that will dictate where traditional powers like USC, Oklahoma, LSU (should they lose Saturday to Alabama), Ohio State, etc end up. Anyone up for Oklahoma versus LSU in the Cotton Bowl? Miami-Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl? Stay tuned.

View From Bennett Avenue

With nothing to date derailing the desired match-up of Texas and the winner of the SEC in the BCS Championship Game, the drama this season is in individual conference races. Of course one could not tell that from media coverage, which treated the USC-Oregon game as a battle to determine the best 1-loss team in the country and not a battle for Pac 10 supremacy, or spent minute after minute trying to sort out whether an undefeated Iowa or a one-loss Texas would get a BCS title spot (and that means you ESPN) if it came down to just those two teams (and if Texas lost a game) instead of an examination of the Big 10 race. Taking the lead from pro sports, in which one team is crowned champion and the rest are losers, the media is trying their damnedest to suck the life out of college football by focusing so much attention on both the two teams that will play for the title and the race for those spots.

Which is a shame. Now we all know about the fine seasons currently being enjoyed by Cincinnati, TCU, Boise, Oregon, Iowa and Georgia Tech. But how about Temple, who won for the sixth straight time yesterday and is leading the MAC East Division? Or Utah, who stands 7-1 but disappeared from the national scene after a seven-point loss at Oregon in September which does not look too bad at the moment? Or 5-3 Duke, who would win the Coastal Division of the ACC if they win out? Or Pittsburgh, 7-1 and determined to make their December 5 game against Cincinnati a de facto Big East title game? Or Arizona and Stanford, who currently stand in second and third place respectively in Pac 10 and both host Oregon in huge conference games in November? Or Nevada, still undefeated in WAC play and trying to stay that way until they meet Boise State on November 27?

I am looking forward to a great November, one that will be so even if Texas, Florida and Alabama win out.