Is LSU the Worst Coached Team in America?

Can any football fan imagine a team coached by Mack Brown, Joe Paterno, Nick Saban, or Jim Tressel coughing up a holding-the-football-like-a-loaf-of-bread fumble when all a running back—LSU's Stevan Ridley, in this case—has to do to clinch a big win is to fall down with possession of the ball?

For all their speed and skill, the Bayou Bengals of coach Les Miles often seem in over their heads when strategic adjustments are needed, when gambling defenses are a bad idea, and when a subtle feel for game situations is called for?

In LSU's fortunate 30-24 win over North Carolina on Saturday night, Ridley was guilty of bad ball security after he burst for a first down that should have locked up the game.

Earlier, freshman back Alfred Blue, in on the so-called hands-team to defend an anticipated on-side kick by the Tar Heels, hesitated in going for the ball. Blue touched the bounding ball, was wiped out by a charging Tar Heel, and Carolina gained possession. One wonders how well a frosh is schooled on the rules of such kicks.

Lastly, give credit to maligned UNC QB T.J. Yates, who pitched lots of good passes in the second half. But the LSU defense is still waiting for coaching adjustments to Carolina's slant-in pass strategy, and while a corner blitz created a big play for LSU at the right time, the Tigers might not have been in such a nervous mess had earlier such gambles not burned their defensive unit.

--Bob Boyles

View From Bennett Avenue

I must admit that I was happy to see Mississippi lose Saturday. The recent whining over the status of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who coach Houston Nutt brought in mercenary style to help save the season, was the last in a series of moves by the Rebels since they forced out respected coach David Cutcliffe after the 2004 season that have conspired to have me root against the program (save for the upset over Florida two years ago--that was fun). Nutt and his predecessor Ed Orgeron, have proven time and time again that their sole focus is on wins and losses and they could care less about the classroom or the development of the athletes outside the playing field.

And so as the Gamecocks of the FCS division--coached by Nutt's old boss Jack Crowe who was once fired as head man at Arkansas (with Nutt as his WR coach) for losing to the FCS program The Citadel--rallied from a 3-TD deficit by scoring on the final six possessions, I had to laugh. The Rebels are reaping what they sowed. "I told them that this is when we find out what everybody is about," said Nutt after Saturday's loss. Houston, we know what you are about.

Remember When

I have always enjoyed the under the radar rivalries played early in the season that mean a lot to regional areas, if not the entire nation. The battle for the fine state of Colorado is just one of those rivalries, pitting teams from different conferences and different levels of expectation, but similar desire to win state-wide bragging rights. Here is a barn-burner from the recent past, as presented in the USA Today College football Encyclopedia (brand new edition now available!):
September 2, 2000
Colorado State 28 Colorado 24 (Denver): Buffs outgained rivals 532y to 392y but could not stop Colorado State (1-0) QB Matt Newton from throwing career-high 4 TD passes, 2 to WR Frank Rice (4/113y). Newton (19-30/327y, 2 INTs) got off to hot start, hitting 7-9 with 2 TDs in early stages. Buffaloes (0-1) roared back with 24 straight pts, with TDs on 5y run by frosh TB Marcus Houston, 15y reception by WR Javon Green, and 1y keeper by QB Bobby Pesavento (20-31/250y), subbing for injured QB Zac Colvin. Rams QB Newton was not done, leading pair of 2nd H TD drives for victory, with game-winner coming early in 4th Q on 30y TD pass to TE Jose Ochoa. "I guess there's a new sheriff in town," said Newton after game. TB Cortlen Johnson rushed for 121y to pace Buffs ground game.

Week One Picks Continued

Bob's Picks for Sept. 4-6, 2010: This week, Point Spreads are based on Danny Sheridan's Thursday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks Against-the-Spread (ATS) this Season: 0-0-1

Go East, Young Man

I'm watching Big East teams this weekend.

Pittsburgh at UTAH (-3): My Thursday pick of Pittsburgh, a 27-24 OT loser to Utah, turned up as a tie, or "push" in the vernacular of Las Vegas. (I think Sammy Davis, Jr. coined the phrase.) Big moment everyone will forget: While Utah was a deserving victor, Pitt made a bad blitz decision just when it was seizing control in the fourth quarter. A simple slant-in pass turned into a Utah TD that created a 24-13 deficit too big to overcome by the Panthers.

SATURDAY:

Connecticut at MICHIGAN (-3): Underappreciated coach Randy Edsall could have UConn as a top-25 team by season's end for the first time ever. The key is the passing accuracy (only 53.2% last year) of one-time Notre Dame top recruit Zach Frazer. UConn has 16 starters back. Michigan will likely qualify for a bowl this year, probably with six or seven wins. The hungry yellow-clad (Ooo, sorry, Michigan fans, I mean maize-clad) crowd will be fired up. But I suspect they'll be throwing their hands on their heads again: remember Appalachian State in 2007 and all of 2008. This should come out something like Uconn 30, Michigan 27. PICK: Connecticut +3.

Louisiana State vs. North Carolina (+4) at Atlanta: North Carolina has 15 of its best players sitting this one out. That might inspire the Tar Heels or totally disrupt them. Here's the bottom line: How is an upper-tier SEC team—is LSU third-best?—only a 4-point favorite over an upper-tier ACC team—is Carolina third or fourth-best? PICK: LSU -4.

Cincinnati at FRESNO STATE (-2.5): The Bearcats as a distant road team get no respect—wins at Hawaii in 2008 and Oregon State in '09—and still are underdogs at Fresno. Remember the Bulldogs were the original BCS-buster more than a decade ago but only once got past nine wins in a year. Fresno also has been good in home openers under veteran coach Pat Hill, but Cincy has the most talent. PICK: Cincinnati +2.5.

MONDAY:

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech at Landover, MD: Here comes a Boise pop quiz. In eight games against BCS teams since 2005, the Broncos own a record of (a) 7-1, (b) 6-2, (c) 4-4, or (d) all of the above. You wouldn't believe it with all the hype but the answer is (c) 4-4. And it is 1-3 on the road, and believe it, this "neutral site" really is a home game for Virginia Tech (half a day's drive from Landover). Interestingly, a Hokie loss here won't necessarily ruin their season, while this game is everything for Boise State. It could be a great one. Boise is very well-coached and has fewer top-level studs than you might think. PICK: Virginia Tech +2.

 

Paul's Picks for Sept. 4-6, 2010: This week, point spreads are based on Danny Sheridan's Thursday spreads in USA TODAY.

Paul's picks this week against-the-spread (ATS): 1-1

I split the other night with a win with a Hawaii team that gained 588 yards against USC and a blowout loss by Southern Miss against a rejuvenated South Carolina team. The Gamecocks will disappoint their fans at some point this season. They always do.

I like a number of games the rest of the weekend, so I will cut right to the chase.

Illinois vs. Missouri (-12) in St. Louis. The Illini were blown out in this game last year and that was despite having a huge advantage in experience at the quarterback position. But now Tigers QB Blaine Gabbert is the experienced one and he will light up Illinois. Sure leading rusher Derrick Washington has been suspended, but Mizzou has experience at that position and the type of offensive line that will make subs look like stars. Pick: Missouri -12.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (+11.5) in Denver. I am going with the Rams in this game—I must admit that I pick them every year in this game and they have rewarded me handsomely for my loyalty—and there is a theme developing with my first two picks. Both Illinois (Ron Zook) and Colorado (Dan Hawkins) are coached by men who are barely hanging on to their job. Embattled coaches almost never inspire a job-saving season from their team. Hawkins does have a host of starters back, but CSU is pledged to win this year with a powerful run game and defense—staples of the fine years enjoyed by former coach Sonny Lubick. Pick: Colorado State +11.5

Northwestern at VANDERBILT (+4): I mentioned respect the other day and this is a classic case where one team is not getting enough. The Wildcats gave Auburn all it could handle in the Outback Bowl last year and while the Tigers are looked on as a trendy pick to have a great season nobody has said boo about the boys from Evanston. Sure QB Mike Kafka is gone, but replacement Dan Persa has plenty of talent. They have a big advantage in experience and skill against a Vandy squad that has to be reeling from their coach's decision to retire in mid-summer. Pick: Northwestern -4.

SUNDAY

SMU at TEXAS TECH (-13.5): With the drastic change in coaching style from Mike Leach to Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech has to be vulnerable early in the season. Now Tuberville is not changing too much of the Red Raiders system, but he has such a different mindset compared to Leach that has to be an adjustment period. For the Mustangs, they enter this season with a lot of confidence and expect to gain more national respect—there is that word again—with good showing here and against TCU later in the month. Pick: SMU +13.5

MONDAY

Navy vs. Maryland (+6) at Baltimore: Maryland's Ralph Friedgen is another coach on the hot seat. While he is optimistic about his offense, the defense will be the downfall in this game. His team has also started poorly in each of the past two seasons. For the Midshipmen, they are used to playing under the radar and will prove to be more than 10 points better than what has become the second best program in the state. Ricky Dobbs for Heisman! Pick: Navy -6.

There are quite a lot of games this week pitting top ten teams against woefully undermanned opponents. If you have to pick one of these games, go for Alabama to beat San Jose State by at least 10 points more than their spread (37).

The Big Ten Blows It

When it comes to how not to divide a football conference into divisions for a championship game, the ACC wrote the book. So when the Big Ten divided the other day, what league did it emulate? It was the ACC, of course.

The addition of Nebraska for next year left the Big Ten with a nice geographic split with Chicago at the center: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin in the West with Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Purdue in the East.

The Big Ten chose to split as such: Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin in an unnamed division, let's call it the "Eastern Indy Dells Division." Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern make up the other unnamed group, which we'll call the "Big-shouldered Corn Motors Division."

Instead of following the logic of geography, commissioner Jim Delany (pictured) sought "competitive equality" in divisions. Oh? How does he anticipate the long-term quality of any football member other than Ohio State? Every other team has had at least one season with five or fewer wins during the decade just ended.

The mistakes the ACC made are three-fold:

It chose out-of-the-way pro stadia for its half-attended title games

It wrongly anticipated Florida State and Miami would top the league every year and thus were split despite their neighboring status

It ignored geography, so hardly anybody outside ACC athletic offices can remember who plays whom for division titles.

The Big Ten:

Chose a pro stadium (Indianapolis' Lucas Oil) in its weakest football state for the first title game in 2011

Long-time, influential kingpins Michigan and Ohio State were placed in separate divisions. Do Delany and Friends project those two in the title game every year? Michigan might have to start all over with a new coach and system by 2012 and might not see success for years.

Without looking above, what division does Indiana play in? Nebraska? Wisconsin? There is nothing worse for national credibility—which every BCS-era league needs—than muddled division groupings.

The Big Ten's new alignment could have been worse. Windy City rivals Northwestern and the University of Chicago might have gone to separate divisions. Chicago's Maroons left the Big Ten in 1940, you say? Perhaps current-day leaders didn't know that; they knew little else.

--Bob Boyles

What We Learned From Day One

The beginning of the college football season is always full of mistakes as teams continue to prepare for the upcoming season. But the games do count and the big loser yesterday was Pittsburgh, who blew a big opportunity for a nice early win. The Panthers did not deserve to win, mind you, but they could have easily escaped Rice-Eccles Stadium with a victory as they drove from midfield in the game's late moments, down three points. But questionable play-calling doomed the drive that ended on a made field goal by Dan Hutchins--the third attempt with this ridiculous icing the kicker crap that deludes the end of games these days. He actually missed the second one but Utah coach Kyle Whittingham had called timeout for a second time, hopefully learning a lesson for future games. Do it once and then let the kid kick. In overtime we enjoyed a pure college moment as true freshman Brian Blechen--who played quarterback and linebacker in high school last year--picked off new Pitt QB Tino Sunseri. Blechen turns 19 at the end of the month. The Utes then sliced through a demoralized Panther defense to end the game on a chip-shot field goal by the always-reliable Joe Phillips.

That was the big game of day one, but Ohio State opened in fine fashion with a rout of Marshall, South Carolina looked impressive in blowing out a Southern Miss team that spent way too much time yelling at each other and the young USC secondary was exposed by a game Hawaii squad. With so many top quarterbacks remaining on the Trojans schedule, Monte Kiffin will have to continue to force feed those kids. And the way QB Matt Barkley and WR Ronald Johnson carved up the Warriors defense did not bode well for Boise State QB Kellen Moore's Heisman chances as they exposed the WAC defenses that Moore faces for what they are--substandard. Of course Moore can eliminate some doubt with his performance this weekend against Virginia Tech.

Week One Picks: Chapter One

Bob's Picks for Sept. 2, 2010: Point Spreads based on Danny Sheridan's Thursday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS) Last Season: Let's forget last season

Go East, Young Man

The always under-appreciated Big East Conference has three attractive underdogs in the first weekend of college games for 2010. I'm only going to pick one game at a time, so here goes for Thursday.

Pittsburgh at UTAH (-3)

Over on http://www.philsteele.com/, our favorite football preview magazine author has a question: Which ranked team is most likely to lose to an unranked team this week? By far, Pitt at 51% is the choice, presumably with potent Utah playing at home. Afraid I don't buy it: The Panthers have improved greatly the last two years and been very good as an underdog—10-3 over the last three years. It should be a close game. Pick: PITT +3.

Paul's Picks for September 2, 2010: Point Spreads are based on Sheridan's Thursday spreads.

A Matter of Respect

The key to winning in week one is to spot which teams are getting too much love and which teams are not getting enough based on your own projections for the upcoming season. Which teams are being treated with too much respect for past glories? Which underdogs will prove to be better than expected?

Southern Miss at SOUTH CAROLINA (-14)

The theme tonight is to take dogs playing anyone named USC. Is it me or are the Gamecocks the most overrated team this preseason? USC under coach Steve Spurrier has always underperformed when expectations are high. Sure they have returning starters, but so too the Golden Eagles defense—who have nine returnees including the top three tacklers—who will frustrate a Gamecock attack that topped 16 points only once in the last seven games of the 2009 season. And on offense, Southern Miss will attack an improving USC secondary with dynamic wideout DeAndre Brown. I expect the Gamecocks to win, but by single digits. Pick: So Miss +14

Southern California (-21.5) at HAWAII

This is a classic week one opportunity for two reasons: too much respect for past glory for USC and a match-up problem for the Trojans. This spread is treating the visitors as if they are a top five team, which they are not. Plus the Trojans will not be able to run up the score on offense behind an inexperienced offensive line that will tangle with a solid defensive front for the Warriors. But the best match-up for Hawaii is when they drop back to throw as returning starting QB Bryant Moniz will be targeting any of four WRs against a Southern Cal secondary that lost all four starters after last season and then some depth this spring due to transfers, injuries and suspension. Look for senior Greg Salas, who caught 106 passes for 1,590y last year, to make a splash on the national stage. Pick: Hawaii +21.5