Big 12 Update

With the Big 12 neatly divided between five haves, four of whom are ranked with the other (Texas) knocking on the door, and five have nots, all of whom sport losing records, there is usually at least one compelling match-up each week. With Baylor and Oklahoma off this week preparing for each other, and Texas facing a poor Kansas team, we have one game to watch Saturday in Texas Tech-Oklahoma State. Basically a conference title elimination game, this match-up will send the loser into fifth place with two losses and time running out. While both teams have had good seasons they are not without flaws. Texas Tech turns the ball over like a basement-level team and commits too many penalties. They also can become too pass happy. Okie State has had surprisingly poor QB play and has been mediocre to poor road team over the past couple of seasons. Since crushing the Red Raiders in Lubbock in 2011, 66-6, the Cowboys are 3-6 on the road with wins against KU, Texas-San Antonio and Iowa State. I like the Red Raiders slightly but will probably pass.

Big Ten Update

Unless something very odd happens, all of the championship intrigue in the Big Ten from now until November 30 will be centered on the Legends Division. Ohio State has and will continue to put a stranglehold on the Leaders Division. The next three opponents for the Buckeyes are Purdue, Illinois and Indiana. The games need to be played but I am not expecting miracles. Michigan State has the same 4-0 conference mark as OSU but they have a much tougher road to hoe to clinch the Legends. Sparty has a huge game Saturday hosting Michigan and then has to play at Nebraska and at Northwestern before a home game against Minnesota. Those games are all winnable but since the teams are all inconsistent it is hard to sort out the type of games remaining for MSU. Taken as a group, there is enough competition for a cumulative sense of worry. Still if they win Saturday it is hard to see anyone else making a move on them. And even if they lose to the Wolverines, they would still have an advantage over their rivals who still would have to play OSU. As for everyone else, there are some very good games remaining. Is 6-2 Minnesota, winners of two straight as they are inspired by their head coach Jerry Kill, legit? If they take care of business Saturday at Indiana and then beat Penn State next weekend, they would be playing rival Wisconsin on November 23 for a ranking and possible January bowl game. Can Nebraska turn it around? That is funny to say for a 5-2 team, but they have yet to beat a guaranteed bowl team and have a tough schedule the rest of the way. Iowa? Wisconsin? Penn State? Can anyone make a run at a nice season. Can Northwestern halt their awful slide?

Today's Picks

I am 3-0 this week and will ride the hot streak this afternoon. I like: Georgia Tech -10 UCF -24 Ball State -10 Houston +7 BC +7 Clemson -14 Va Tech -13 Navy +5 SMU -12 Vandy+18 Tenn +28 Oregon -23 Kansas State -11 Stan -4 No Texas -11 La Tech -5 Mizzou -2 Bay -35 Good luck

American Athletic Conference Update

The cleaning up of the AAC standings continues this weekend as the number of teams tied for first in the standings, currently at three with Central Florida, Houston and South Florida all 2-0, should be shrunk to two or even one.  And standing in line awaiting slipups from any of the top three are one-loss teams like Louisville and Rutgers who still aim to rise to the top of the standings.
UCF is, of course, in the driver's seat having beaten Louisville on the road.  They have six conference games remaining, four at home and they will be favored in the road games against Temple and SMU who are a combined 3-10.  The Knights should have no problem upping their conference mark to 3-0 Saturday versus winless UConn.
Houston's path is tougher, both Saturday at Rutgers and for the rest of the season.  Saturday is a must win as the Cougars still must play at Louisville and at UCF.  Realistically they are playing for a decent bowl bid but as long as there is a zero in the conference loss category they have a shot for the whole prize.  This will be the toughest road test for Houston, to date, and its true freshman QB
John O'Korn.  But O'Korn has a veteran's swagger, honed by playing big-time high school football at Thomas Aquinas in Fort Lauderdale.  And Rutgers has been having secondary issues all season--what was never a strength has gotten worse through attrition--and that will be a problem against Houston's passing attack.  The Houston defense, however, is fresh off allowing 681y to BYU so the Scarlet Knights will be moving the ball too.  Expect a high scoring affair (61.5 over/under) that is decided in the 4th quarter.
As for South Florida, well its 2-0 conference mark is belied by an 0-4 out of conference record.  Can they continue to win AAC games?  Hosting a mad Louisville team is probably not the best way to continue the season reversal.  For Louisville, the squad has to remain focused on games at hand and forget about rankings, BCS bids and Heismans.  They are off the radar and must take care of business against desperate teams like the Bulls.  For Saturday they must keep the pass rush off of Teddy Bridgewater and not let the home team hang around.  If not they will repeat last year's mistake of following their first loss, late at Syracuse, by being stunned at home to UConn for loss number two.
Things should be a bit clearer in the AAC come Sunday, although if anyone can catch UCF until they host Houston on November 9.

Today's Picks

I have run 55-45 for the season and even I can do that math.  55%.  Mediocre for sure but ready to move up from here.
Tonight I am going with the Mississippi State-Kentucky under 55.5 and Middle Tennessee getting 10.  I also like BYU giving 7 tomorrow.  Good luck.

Miami Sanctions

What can you say? At least it was something, although perhaps nothing at all would have been better.  Because then we could blow up the whole system and start all over.  Do what baseball did in the 1920s after the gambling scandals (not that I am a Judge Landis fan) and give supreme power to someone outside the system and above all of the b.s.  But that will never happen.  Baseball took back that power and the colleges would rather have less scrutiny from an outside body, not more.
As for whether or not Miami has suffered because of the way the NCAA handled the investigation, I personally feel that that sentiment has been overblown.  Being that Miami has been on probation before they should have been hammered for these accusations.  Losing two mediocre bowl bids and having to wait for their punishment are not bad enough to equal the crime. 
And there is one more thing.  For some reason the personal motives of the main accuser is somehow a problem in this case.  Is Shapiro a creep?  Yes.  But that is true of most people buying players and if we throw out the testimony and evidence from creeps we will have a tough time nailing anyone.  And he was a creep when Miami was taking his checks so that administration should go away too.
I also am tired of other fans bitching because they were hit hard with sanctions--and yes I am talking to you USC fans and even those from OSU--when they were caught cheating and deserve to pay.  While I agree that it is easy to be frustrated with how Southern programs seem to get away with things, the reality is that you paid a fair punishment for crimes committed, so shut up and get on with life.  And instead of bitching, change how things are done.  Don't get caught and get punished and then go and hire coaches who have seemingly gotten away with cheating themselves all while crying about your sanctions.

College Football Turned Upside Down--Or Was It?

When I saw the lousy job pollsters did with their voting this week I remembered a conversation on ESPN Friday that centered on how bad Miami looked and that they were too high as the 10th-11th-ranked team in the country.  Then Saturday happened and voila, Miami is 6th in one poll, 7th in the other.  The lesson of course is that it is not how bad you look as long as you win.
Which leads me to how "crazy" Saturday was supposed to have been with so many top 25 and specifically top 10 teams losing.  But for me Saturday was just a correction in which overrated teams that were highly ranked because of won-loss records based more on bad opponents than quality of team in question were shown to be fakers.  But again they were frauds based on faulty evaluation.  LSU came into the season with a question mark due to the incredible amount of talent that left the program after last season.  They then open the season with wins over TCU, UAB, Kent State and Auburn.  Not bad.  More significantly the team's once pedestrian--and I am being kind--offense looked recharged and downright good.  So the pundits started to project a typically strong Tiger defense with a good offense....World Beater.  Then the team went on the road (they did beat TCU on a neutral field) and dropped two games to teams that are not even ranked at the moment.  LSU is lucky to be ranked 13th and that is based more on reputation than results.
Then again, someone has to be ranked.  UCLA?  They were undefeated and top ten but again were they worthy?  Yes they beat Nebraska on the road but that was two weeks after Wyoming scorched the Huskers for 602y.  The other Bruin wins?  Nevada, New Mexico State, Utah and Cal.  Those teams are a combined 8-20.
There is more of this and while weekends like this past one do punish programs for being over-ranked--hello Florida and Georgia--they do not come soon enough to properly affect the BCS rankings.  But there is plenty of football to be played and I will not get too upset....yet.