Four Team Playoff Blues

If Alabama wins Saturday then the nation will have a few weeks to get ready for a national championship tilt between the Tide and Notre Dame.  The Irish will still be knocked for, well, I am unsure what reasons, but generally most everyone will accept the pairing as the best way to decide the 2012 champion.
But what if the four-team playoff system, to begin next season, were in place this year?  To be honest it would be a problem-causer.  Let's say, for the sake of argument, that all of the favorites this weekend win their games.  So Notre Dame and Alabama, obviously, are in.  But what about spots three and four?  Kansas State and Florida?  That would leave both Oregon and Stanford out, plus the 2-loss SEC teams and FSU.  SI conducted a survey of 11 current administrators and they came up with Florida and Oregon.  So no KSU nor a Stanford team that could win the Pac 12 title and has already topped Oregon on the field.
Not sure making the playoffs larger would work as the main BCS conference champions should get automatic berths but that may not leave enough at large berths to count for Notre Dame, a Boise State type team and all of the talented second place teams from big conferences.  No one has explained where these games are going to be played either.  Go to 16 then the logistics get worse.
One thing is clear about the future of playoffs.  Money will be the driving factor.

The Big Game

Well it is finally upon us. Alabama-LSU II. Like a big-time boxing match these two heavyweights will battle for college football supremacy in a hard-hitting contest that will feature limited yet therefore hugely crucial, offensive fireworks. In a departure from the rest of the football world where offense reigns, as evidenced by not one but two different teams setting records for most points scored in a bowl game this post-season this game will feature the two best defenses in the sport. And like in round one it is hard to imagine many points being scored.
So what will happen? Who knows? I think LSU is the better team but beating a very good rival twice in one season with the title on the line is really difficult. Just ask Bobby Bowden and Florida State, who needed to sweep two games against Florida for the 1996 championship but came up short in the Sugar Bowl. Despite having just written that I am taking LSU to win 20-17.

View From Bennett Avenue

The state of big-time college football is precarious these days, with a number of high profile programs keeping the NCAA investigative arm busy. Just take a look at the schools who reached the BCS Title Game in recent years. Both Oregon and Auburn are facing investigations, there is video evidence of illegal contact between players from the previous year's winner, Alabama, and a booster, Ohio State, loser in January of 2006 and 2007, will soon find out the severity of their punishment for numerous violations, LSU, winner in January of 2004 and 2008, was just placed on probation for recruiting violations and, of course, USC, winner in January of 2005 and loser in 2006, had their championship from the 2004 season stripped among other levels of punishment.
Is it impossible to compete for national titles without cheating? Recent champions Texas, Florida and Oklahoma beg to differ, although Oklahoma was nailed in a phony-jobs-for-players scheme in 2005 and was tainted last year by allegations against former head coach John Blake that he may have paid for players for both recent employer North Carolina and former employer...Oklahoma.
Another disturbing aspect of this situation is that once there is an impression that a major program is cheating and possibly getting away with it, others are encouraged to do the same. That appears to be the case with Auburn as their possible pay-for-Cam scheme may have been the result of a perception that rival Alabama and coach Nick Saban get away with violations. I would love to be able to ask a behind-the-scenes power at Oregon whether the NCAA's inability to immediately punish USC encouraged the Ducks to get into bed with unsavory types like Will Lyles.
The good news is that punishments are being handed out. Allowing Auburn to compete for a national championship last year was ridiculous, but opefully they will pay for it. Just clean up this mess, please.

The 2010 Party is Finally Over

Although I have problems with Auburn winning the national title, based on my belief that Cam Newton should have been ineligible and that I am getting tired of the SEC, the better team did win. And while Dyer's not-totally-down run was huge, they were driving and would have positioned themselves for a longer FG that Bynum would have nailed. Oregon's defense did yeoman's effort to keep Ducks in the game but they easily could have lost by two TDs. Then again, if they call Cliff Harris's near INT in 2nd Q an INT (Auburn scored TD after retaining ball)and Lavasier Tuinei does not get tripped up heading toward end zone in 4th Q (Ducks ended up with 0 points on that drive), Oregon wins. It was that close.

What's next for these programs? Auburn takes a step back in terms of star power as both Newton and Nick Fairly depart, but they are recruiting well and will be strong for years to come barring any possible sanctions (nothing brewing but NCAA did say investigation was not over). As much as I want to say that they will take a step back, Alabama lost a lot of studs early to the pros, Arkansas is losing Mallett, LSU may have to deal with a coaching change, etc. Oregon needs to figure out a way to play their BCS game in mid December. The Ducks have lost four games total in the past two years but three have come when their opponents--all powerhouses--have had multiple weeks to prepare for their offense. All three of those schools, Boise State, Ohio State and Auburn, get good play from their D-lines and have athletic linebackers. But Chip Kelly will tinker and his QB will gain more experience. They are what they are and played hard. They will be the Pac 10 favorite next season.

View From Bennett Avenue

With the amount of space given to debates over the legitimacy of the BCS--and at Sports Illustrated and The New York Times that discussion trumps all--college football journalism has failed to present accurate coverage of the sport. And if there is a modicum of space left for game previews and write-ups, the subject matter always centers on the stars of the game. That is true in all sports of course, after all how many articles or televised pieces centered on Matt Ryan of the Falcons compared to those focused on Brett Favre?

And so we are left with a BCS Title Game featuring Cam Newton and Nick Fairly of Auburn squaring off against Oregon's LaMichael James and, well, I guess Jeff Maehl. Maybe Casey Matthews. To be honest Oregon does not get much attention behind a "boy do they play fast" critique. But TE David Paulson and C Jordan Holmes joined Maehl and James on the all Pac 10 first team offense while CB Talmadge Jackson joined Matthews on the first team defense. CB Cliff Harris also made the first team for his punt returning and second team for his defensive play, while QB Darron Thomas, OT Bo Thran, DT Brandon Bair, DE Kenny Rowe and special teamer Bryson Littlejohn all made second team. Does anyone east of the Rockies say boo about these players? But before we blame East Coast media bias, the great majority of Auburn starters are unknown to the general football fan despite playing in the big, bad SEC. OT Lee Ziemba (pictured) and C Ryan Pugh joined Newton on the first team All SEC, while G Byron Isom, DE Antoine Carter and LB Josh Byrnes all made second team. And this is not to slight the other starters and contributors who all helped make these two teams undefeated.

The problem is that the media and the fans grew fat on some combination of USC, Texas, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Florida making the BCS game every year. There are too many FBS teams, so the coverage went to the presumed best every year, which of course helped them stay on top. With a number of stars departing for the pro ranks in recent years and the media firm in its conviction that a lack of a playoff system is on par with some horrific atrocity plaguing third world countries, the amount of space for the Spencer Paysingers and Darvin Adams is nonexistent. Last year we had stories on the BCS being bad, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow. This year it's the BCS being bad, Urban Meyer and Cam Newton.

It was not always this way, of course, and I am not talking about the glory days when college football ruled the sports pages. Take the 1981 Clemson Tigers, who won the title without even being ranked in preseason. They were 6-5 the season before and played in western South Carolina for a little-known coach. But before they played Nebraska in the Orange Bowl at the end of that season, the regular college football fan knew who QB Homer Jordan was, and that his favorite target was WR Perry Tuttle. The Tigers won on defense and regular fans knew the names of stars such as Jeff Bryant, Jeff Davis and Terry Kinard from the stop unit. And fans of the sport certainly knew that big William Devane helped clog the middle for that defense and that Cliff Austin, Chuck McSwain and Jeff McCall led a balanced running attack. But again, these players and their games were fully covered by a media that did not have to worry about a BCS or potential playoff. They, more or less, focused on the play on the field. We have lost something very important.

Tonight's Pick

Is the season over? The dragging out the "excitement" until well into January is one of the worst decisions ever made by the television executives truly calling the shots. Dumb. Half the country has already moved on to the NFL playoffs, while the other half may give the game a decent rating but has signed off on the games played between 1/1 and tonight.
College football should take over Christmas as the NBA and college football have two different audiences. If the NFL can have a triple header on Thanksgiving then college football can up the ante on Christmas. New Year's Eve can also be better utilized and the lesser games can be used as first games of double headers with the BCS games. And do not be afraid of the last Sunday night NFL game as that game is usually meaningless or, like this year's "battle for the NFC West" not carrying too much import even when a playoff berth is riding on it.
As for tonight I have like Oregon all along and do not see a reason to change. The game should be fun but not as high-scoring as people think. Don't get me wrong, both teams will reach the high 20s, but it will not end up 45-44. Enjoy.

What We Learned Saturday

Being a big fan of major upsets, I am very happy right now. Every week another over-rated big power falls by the wayside and every week the "experts" drum up support for the latest BCS conference flavor. Auburn is no. 1 in the latest BCS ranking? The Arkansas back-up QB came off the bench and tore that D to shreds. All of these teams have flaws and it will be interesting to see who survives the rest of the action. Michigan State and Missouri, for example, will be hard-pressed to win this weekend (at Iowa and at Nebraska respectively). And we still have to have at least one stunning upset, whereby a team with a mediocre record knocks off a top 5 squad. How about Mississippi beating Auburn Saturday? All of that should make it a little easier for Alabama to climb back into the mix and for at least one non BCS squad--and there are three ranked in the top 7--making the title game.

And to be honest, there has been so much discussion about these non BCS conference teams that it will almost be a let-down if the BCS title game does not pit one them versus a more traditional power. And the ratings between Alabama and Boise would be huge. We'll see. It is only October 25.

There were quite a number of big games this past weekend in regards to conference action and I will break down each conference as the week goes on. It has been an exciting year and the final stretch promises some big-time action.

Boise State wins without playing

Much was made last weekend of Virginia Tech's loss to James Madison in regard to the BCS. Everyone was in agreement that the Hokies' loss to a team from the FBS was damaging to Boise's chances of reaching the BCS title game as Virginia Tech was expected to be Boise's signature win and an eventual 12-1 record would be a boost to the Broncos. And so even though we are weeks away from the first BCS standings, experts were poo-poohing the chances of the party crashers from Idaho.
But then a funny thing happened last night. Nevada, a WAC stalwart for years unable to achieve the national standing of Boise, whacked Cal. Remembering Fresno State's beating of Cincinnati week one, suddenly the WAC is not looking too weak anymore. Boise State finishes the 2010 regular season with a road game against an improving Idaho squad--and the two schools are already sniping at each other--a home game against Fresno, a road game against Nevada and a home game against the Utah State team that lost to Oklahoma in Norman by 7. If the conference can continue to accumulate scalps--say Louisiana Tech over Navy today--then all of the moaning about how bad the WAC is can end (just in time for the conference to implode with defections in the off season)
Of course, so too could the Boise domination of the conference. The lesson with all of this? IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE DISCUSSING BCS TITLE GAME IMPLICATIONS!

Do you believe in “National Champion” Boise State?

For those of you who love the underdogs and think Boise State should advance to the BCS national title game if it—I hate this catch-phrase—"runs the table" the rest of 2010, permit me to pose a couple of questions of perception.

First, Boston College, an 8-5 team from 2009, will likely stand at 2-0 when it hosts Virginia Tech (Boise State's last-minute victim on Monday night) on September 25. Already a victor over Weber State, BC presumably will also have beaten Kent State prior to the Hokies' arrival and thus own wins over the kind of third-rate opponents that make up the bulk of Boise State's schedule. If BC beats Virginia Tech, should the Eagles jump into BCS consideration?

Here's the second question: Let's assume the NFL's San Diego Chargers were to survive unbeaten through six games against their long-time AFC division rivals Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland this season, and (through an imaginary scheduling glitch) also win against two semi-pro teams from the San Fernando Valley, two Arena Football League teams, and sweep home-and-home series against the Toronto Argonauts, Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and Saskatchewan Rough Riders. Should the 16-0 Chargers be promoted to the Super Bowl past the Indianapolis Colts, who let's say are at 14-2 against a full NFL schedule, just because San Diego is undefeated and had an excellent preseason ranking?

If you answered no to either question, then you must admit Boise belongs nowhere near the BCS championship.

As great as Boise looked at times against Virginia Tech, there is a big argument against the Broncos. They didn't blow out what might turn out to be only the fifth-best team in an average-at-best BCS conference. Case closed!

Boise fans, enjoy your big victories over New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech later this year. They ought to earn you a trip to the Poinsettia Bowl.

--Bob Boyles

View From Bennett Avenue

I have been busy trying to find work the past few days and never did comment on the big game the other night. Sorry about that. Anyway, what an odd one? I do not remember a winning coach--and won who enjoyed an undefeated season--making so many boneheaded decisions in one game. The fake punt was so dumb it was unbelievable. Was he jealous of all the ink Boise State gets for trick plays? Texas should have opened with a 7-0 lead and would have added to it when the Alabama WR Julio Jones fails to fair-catch the ensuing short kick-off. That play proved that a team of 5-star players can lose to a weaker team if they commit brain locks like that one. Jones has never impressed one as a top student-athlete, so perhaps it was to be expected. Although it is hard to blame Saban directly for this one play, the coach is responsible for getting his team prepared and, well, Jones was not prepared. So they get bailed out with McCoy's injury and only trail by six. But this post is heading for War and Peace-like length, so let me knock Saban for his biggest blunder. How do you let the only dynamic, game-changing player left on the Texas offense almost beat you in the second half? Thanks to the gift TD received at the end of the 1st H, the Tide led 24-6 with a great run game and a tough defense that had already ended the amateur career of QB Colt McCoy. The odds in Alabama's favor looked to be a million-to-one. So then Alabama amazingly allows WR Jordan Shipley to run free in their secondary. The number one threat for Texas and the most reliable target for youngster Garret Gilbert was the star WR Shipley. He had to be neutralized, yet the Tide deep safeties were late coming over on both of his TDs. You cannot let the best player on the field beat you and yet there was Shipley catching pass after pass in the 2nd H.
But then the defense, which in all fairness Saban helped shape, bails him out with another brutal hit on an opposing QB. But that's football. and the best thing Saban has done with the Tide program is establish a team built on punishing line of scrimmage play.
Meanwhile--and yes I am back with some anti-Saban material, why was ESPN so amazed that Saban has turned around the Tide in only three years? It's Alabama for crying out loud. The program dipped because of questionable coaching and a loss of scholarships due to some recruiting malfeasance. Saban is now recruiting full tilt. And anyone can recruit top-notch kids from down-south to Tuscaloosa. Plus plenty of coaches have turned around big-time programs that momentarily slumped before this season including ESPN's own Lou Holtz, who was his only NCAA title three years after the Faust years. Don't the fools at ESPN read their own talent's bios?
Enough already. I have to post on Pete Carroll next.

Final Prediction of the Season

I am going with Texas tonight, plus the points, as I stand to win a couple of bucks from a preseason wager. Plus, I could not stomach another SEC title. Hook 'em Horns!