View From Bennett Avenue

Not one of the big three college football powers from the state of Florida is ranked in the AP top 25 for the first time since 1982. That is stunning, but not surprising for various reasons.
The obvious one is that the many talented players in the Sunshine State get recruited by all of the major powers. Miami, Florida and Florida State rode the surge in talented Florida high school players that began after the post-war state population growth to great heights beginning in the late 1970s. But all three of those powers won with experienced coaches who knew how to exploit all of that talent in men like Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Jimmy Johnson and Dennis
Erickson. Even coaches like Butch Davis and Howard Schnellenberger, who had limited or no head coaching experience, arrived at Coral Gables with extensive NFL experience.
But now, with the competition for in-state talent fiercer than ever, those three programs entrusted these difficult, yet plum, jobs to men without head coaching experience in the since-fired Randy Shannon, Jimbo Fisher and Will Muschamp. Why?
Don't get me wrong. Every great head coach was once just a coordinator somewhere. And yes there are some coaches, like Bob Stoops, who can do extemely well with their first crack at a head job. But the odds are against them. The overwhelming number of national championship coaches in the modern era have come from coaches who were head men elsewhere. The last nine national title coaches were men who had been head coaches at other schools before their title-winning position. The job has become so difficult that to expect guys without head experience to succeed at high-profile jobs is silly.
Making matters worse is the individuals hired for these jobs. The first was Shannon, who had done an excellent job as the Miami defensive coordinator and was a respected former Hurricane player. The problem with Shannon's hire was that the university expected him to win every game and clean up the program (in terms of player arrests and getting kids to class, not as we know now with player purchasing). So Shannon no longer took every troubled kid from the area and was tough on his players in terms of behavior. With the wall enclosing South Florida high schools now breached, Miami could not overcome a host of problems and slipped accordingly.
Florida State, meanwhile, jumped on LSU QB guru Jimbo Fisher as their coach-in-waiting while Bobby Bowden's career wound down. Replacing a legend like Bowden would have been tough for any coach but to expect a guy whose claim to fame was good quarterback meetings with Matt Mauck and JaMarcus Russell always seemed like a stretch to me. He could recruit but so can 50 other guys.
Florida was in a weird position due to Urban Meyer's mind changing over his future. But again, all the school had to do was look at its record with recent hires. Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer both won at second tier schools before winning titles with the Gators. Ron Zook was a former coordinator who could recruit. Sound familiar? Zook was fired after three seasons. So now they hire Muschamp, who seemed to have gotten the job because he is exciteable.
What is particularly stunning is that not one of these programs can even claim to have a better future. Miami will soon be put on probation. By the time Florida figures out a QB, offensive stars Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps will be playing in the pros and FSU will need a new QB next year too. It was telling that after FSU lost to Wake Forest yesterday, three of its higest-rated recruits for next year de-committed. The best Florida kids can go anywhere--why should they play for rebullding squads?