Saturday, October 31, 2009

Anguish in Storrs

The situation with Connecticut football is moving quickly from grief to something more surreal. For the second straight game since the death of CB Jasper Howard, the Huskies have lost late on a huge play by the opposing team. Wanting so badly to win one for their fallen comrade, the team is instead coming so close to a win that they can feel it only to have the game wrenched away from them at the last second. Today, Rutgers WR Tim Brown scored on an 81y pass play with less than 30 secs remaining as Rutgers won 28-24. Brown was a good friend of Howard from Miami so there was something fitting about his scoring the TD. Still, with the home crowd creating an emotional and celebratory environment, there was a great need to win this game. Not being able to do so was bad enough but losing in this fashion has got to be devastating.
On the schedule for next week? On the road at Cincinnati.

Remember When


Present day memories of the Florida-Georgia rivalry are so ingrained in the nation's psyche that one has to step back to remember a time when the game was more of a regional affair. Although Georgia has been on the national football scene for a century, Florida is more of an upstart and has not consistently earned attention beyond the SEC until the 1960s during the coaching era of Ray Graves. Under Graves Florida won nine games in a season for the first time ever in 1960 and earned their first-ever Sugar Bowl bid after the 1965 season. The Gators of 1966 were ready to challenge for what would have been the school's first SEC title.

Georgia, meanwhile, had slipped a bit during the 1950s and '60s, but was ready to return to prominence under new coach Vince Dooley. Beginning his Hall of Fame coaching tenure with the Bulldogs in 1964 with a 7-3-1 record, Dooley also had his charges prepared for a successful 1966 season. The 1966 version of the Florida-Georgia rivalry would have great implications for both the conference race and national rankings. As recapped in The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia, this game would feature two squads ready for the big time:


Georgia 27 Florida 10 (Jacksonville): Favored Florida (7-1) had never won SEC title since league's inception in 1933, and Georgia (7-1) was its last hurdle to conf glory. Gators ate more than 5 mins of clock on opening drive that ended by FB Graham McKeel's TD push. Florida led 10-3 at H. Reforcusing on their run attack, Bulldogs tied it late in 3rd Q as FB Ronnie Jenkins scored from 4YL after QB Kirby Moore converted 4th down run at Gators 28YL. Under intense pressure from stalwart DT George Patton, Gators QB Steve Spurrier (16-29/133y, 3 INTs) threw INT that Bulldogs DB Lynn Hughes ran back 39y for go-ahead score at 17-10. Georgia D soon forced punt and later made 4th down stop. Each time UGa halted Blue and Orange, it led to important score: K Bob Etter's FG and Moore's TD run. Florida's O completely faded as it was limited to single 1st down in 2nd H.


Georgia finished tied atop SEC with Alabama at 6-0, with Florida one game back at 5-1. The Bulldogs finished as the no.4 ranked team in the final AP Poll. Despite the rough performance against Georgia, Spurrier won the Heisman Trophy that season by a more than 2-1 margin over runner-up Bob Griese of Purdue.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Weekly Picks

Bob’s Picks for Oct. 31, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob’s picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 17-17

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29 (54.7%), failed to cover 24, 2 Evens, one No Line
Season ATS: Favorites covered 183 (48.4%), failed to cover 195

Hobgoblins, Beavers, and Cowboys

Last week I gave you two mid-year trends: favorites becoming a better bet and double-digit home dogs (DDHDs) as good choices to cover.

Both concepts slipped a bit. Favorites had their third straight week above break-even (54.7%) but failed to exceed the performance of October 17 that scored 58%.

DDHDs were a miserable 2-6 (after going 14-9 over three weeks) as Washington’s collapse against Oregon led the way. Only Miami of Ohio and Mississippi State covered as DDHDs. (None of this week’s four DDHDs are compelling, but at least one or two might cover: SYRACUSE +14.5 vs. Cincinnati, VANDERBILT +11.5 vs. Georgia Tech, BAYLOR +13 vs. Nebraska, and NORTHWESTERN +14.5 vs. Penn State.)

This week I offer a long-lost unbeatable trend. It is the official black-and-orange theme of Halloween. You probably don’t know this, but four major football programs that have worn black-and-orange as their primary colors own a 15-8 won-loss record (65.2%) when playing on the seven Halloweens that have fallen on Saturdays (1953, 1959, 1964, 1970, 1981, 1987, and 1998) since the end of World War II.

The bad news is that Ivy League Princeton at 7-0—now playing in lower level FCS and never listed by the oddsmakers—and Pacific at 3-0—which stopped playing football in 1996—contribute a dazzling 10-0 record to the mighty black-and-orange. Never mind that the other two—the Oregon State Beavers and Oklahoma State Cowboys—stand at 5-8. They will carry the colors to ATS glory this Saturday.

Here are my picks for the week of October 31:

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Temple (+6) at NAVY
Not even in Philadelphia where every sports fan is going nuts over the Phillies does anybody seem to know that lowly Temple has won five straight games. Granted, none of those defeated teams is as good as Navy at 6-2, but Middies star QB Ricky Dobbs is out. This is a hunch in a low scoring game. Pick: Temple +6

Saturday (4:00 p.m. EDT): UCLA (+10) at OREGON STATE
A lot of people, including me, expected more out of UCLA this season, especially after a 3-0 start. But the Bruins ruinously have dropped four straight in the Pac-10 and don’t appear ready to make a successful trip to the Northwest, where the weather will be cool and rainy. Under coach Mike Riley, Oregon State typically has come on strong in the latter half of seasons. The Beavers are 18-3 (15-6 ATS) the last three years after mid-season. Go black-and-orange! Pick: Oregon State -10

Saturday (8:00 p.m. EDT): Texas (-9) at OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State superstar receiver Dez Bryant was officially bounced for the season by the NCAA, but his cheering from the sideline might serve to fire up the Cowboys even more than his absence will hurt. If Texas is to be beaten before a possible trip to the national title game, it likely will have to be this Saturday. The Cowboys, somewhat forgotten since their Houston loss in September, seek redemption for 11 losses in a row to the Longhorns and are long overdue. Halloween black-and-orange carries the day. Pick: Oklahoma State +9

PS: Cornell (2-4) better watch out when the Big Red visits Princeton this Saturday (1:00 p.m. EDT) because the black-and-orange Halloween hobgoblin curse is certain to inspire the Tigers.

Paul’s Picks for Oct. 31, 2009:

Paul’s picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-1, Season: 18-14

Statistics Can Be Misleading

As I was reading the weekly predictions made by the ESPN bloggers today, I had to pause to chuckle. They make such a big deal about how lofty their winning percentage is regarding these picks despite not factoring the spread into the equation. So they can happily predict some score for Florida each week—not to pick on their SEC blogger as this covers the lot of them—and count it as a win even if Florida does not cover.

In reading the ACC section the question of who would win between Virginia and Duke this Saturday featured a sentence praising Virginia’s pass defense for being ranked high nationwide. It appears that the Cavs do not give up much passing yardage. And good for them as my target here is the misuse of statistics in sports reporting and not the players from Charlottesville, who have improved from last year in this regard. But here is where stats can lead you astray. Virginia has played seven games so far this year. Not one of them featured an opponent ranked in the top 30 in passing in the country and two of the teams, North Carolina and Georgia Tech, are ranked outside of the top 100 FBS teams in passing. That does not count William & Mary, a FCS opponent who beat Virginia in Week One. QB R. J. Archer threw for 184y in that game so we can throw out those results. The statistics compiled to date by the Cavaliers defense will in no way be a factor against Duke this week, Miami next week nor even Boston College, Clemson and Virginia Tech down the road. Virginia does seem to have a pretty good pass defense—we just cannot extrapolate that from skewed statistics.

But let’s see what I have extrapolated for the picks this week:

Saturday (Noon EDT): Rutgers (+7.5) at CONNECTICUT
It has been an emotional two weeks for a Huskies program that lost one of their own to senseless violence. From the death of Jasper Howard, which was witnessed by some teammates, to the police investigation and arrest of suspects to his burial, these teenagers and young adults have had to grow up a great deal. Last week’s loss to West Virginia had to be emotionally draining. Now they have to play a program, Rutgers that they have been pretty even with over the years. My assumption is that Connecticut will be flat and lose outright. Even if that assumption is wrong, five of the last seven games between these rivals have been decided by less than seven points. Pick: Rutgers +7.5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Kansas (+6.5) at TEXAS TECH
And we always thought that the problems with young athletes today were drugs or agents or posses or some other scourge. No, Texas Tech coach Mike Leach set us all straight at his post-game press conference last week. The problem with his players is that they listen too much to their “fat, little girlfriends.” For those who did not hear his diatribe, well it is worth looking up. Kansas has lost the past two games to backup QBs playing for Colorado and Oklahoma. The pick here is that a third-string QB, Seth Doege, lights them up this week. Hopefully he is dating someone who is tall and thin. Pick: Texas Tech -6.5

Saturday (7:45 p.m. EDT): South Carolina (+5.5) at TENNESSEE
While Lane Kiffin may want to be Steve Spurrier when he grows up, he is not at that level just yet and with this game expected to be a defensive struggle, I have to take all of those points. The Gamecocks have had this game circled since the offseason when frosh WR Alshon Jeffery quoted Kiffin as saying that if he, Jeffery, went to SC he would end up pumping gas for a living like other South Carolina high school products who chose the state U. Jeffery did sign with South Carolina and made Kiffin’s comments public. While Kiffin denied saying the remark, the damage was done. Pick: South Carolina +5.5

Saturday (8:00 p.m. EDT): Michigan State -3.5 at MINNESOTA
With WR Eric Decker lost to injury, the fortunes of the Golden Gophers are fading fast. They were embarrassed in the past two games, barely competing against Penn State and Ohio State. The Spartans, on the other hand, had won three straight games before losing last week on the last play against undefeated Iowa. The Spartans do need to knock out a nighttime crowd early. Pick: Michigan State -3.5

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

College Football Performance Formula

This is the opening week of rankings using a performance formula Bob has developed using a simple set of statistics to compare college football teams. The formula first appeared in the current edition of the USA Today College Football Encyclopedia and was used to compare teams in each of the past 56 years.

2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PERFOMANCE FORMULA
SEASON’S FIRST POSTING: OCTOBER 28
The Top 40 FBS schools after games of October 24:
1. Texas 1.8633
2. Alabama 1.7677
3. Florida 1.7389
4. Iowa 1.7311
5. TCU 1.7244
6. Boise State 1.6465
7. Oregon 1.6350
8. Cincinnati 1.6301
9. Virginia Tech 1.6283
10. Louisiana State 1.6267
11. Penn State 1.5967
12. Pittsburgh 1.5875
13. Southern California 1.5595
14. Ohio State 1.4962
15. Georgia Tech 1.4921
16. Oklahoma State 1.4766
17. Arizona 1.4331
18. Utah 1.4130
19. Houston 1.4087
20. West Virginia 1.3909
21. Central Michigan 1.3890
22. Mississippi 1.3786
23. Miami 1.3740
24. Notre Dame 1.3686
25. South Carolina 1.3591
26. Clemson 1.3439
27. Brigham Young 1.3363
28. Wisconsin 1.3218
29. Navy 1.3042
30. Oklahoma 1.3036
31. Nebraska 1.2857
32. California 1.2796
33. Kansas 1.2661
34. Michigan 1.2383
35. Texas Tech 1.2123
36. Rutgers 1.1879
37. Auburn 1.1840
38. Georgia 1.1779
39. Idaho 1.1775
40. Stanford 1.1690

The Performance Formula compiles a grade for each of college football’s 120 FBS teams based on three stat categories: winning percentage, opponents’ winning percentage, and scoring margin. Both winning percentage factors are adjusted down to account for wins over FCS schools, and scoring margins are diminished to avoid stat-skewing by a win or loss margin greater than 40 points. A perfectly average team will score 1.0000, while eventual national champions generally score in excess of 1.7500.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

State of Independents


Come on Vanderbilt, knock off somebody good. You came close against South Carolina. You still have Georgia Tech, Florida and Tennessee (Kentucky too, but they do not count) on the schedule. You can do it. Pull the upset!
Why the love for the Commodores? Because the hard-charging group of young cadets of Army (3-5) knocked them off earlier this season and those kids deserve to say that they beat the team that beat someone. I am sure they could care less, of course. Should they win two more games this season they will reach the five victory mark for the first time since the 1996 squad won a whopping 10 games. That seems like ages ago, but this squad is making progress under new coach Rich Ellerson. I was able to see the Black Knights play last Friday—it was my first night game at Michie Stadium—and they held their own for long stretches of time against a superior Rutgers team. I know “holding your own against Rutgers” does not sound like much, but you have to walk before you can run and the Cadets are strolling quite comfortably. They still have games against Air Force and Navy, who combined to beat Army 50-7 last season—and it will be good to chart their progress against their biggest rivals.
Navy (6-2) is playing at such a high level that they will be tough to beat for Army or for that matter Notre Dame on November 7. The team’s only two losses were against Ohio State and Pittsburgh and they proved the last two weeks that they can win in different styles. Two games ago they knocked off an improved SMU squad on the road in OT, 38-35. Last week they went up against an underachieving yet still solid Wake Forest team. And they had to beat them in the rain and without injured QB Ricky Dobbs, who has made a name for himself this year with his brilliant play. So the Midshipmen won a defensive struggle, 13-10, with soph QB Kriss Proctor celebrating his first-ever start by scoring the eventual winning TD on a 40y run in the 3rd Q. Navy and Wake have now split the four games they have played in the past three seasons, including the Deamon Deacons’ 27-17 win in the EagleBank Bowl last December.
Notre Dame (5-2) can begin preparing for Navy as they have woeful Washington State on the schedule for this week at the Alamodome. Of course, the Irish remember their loss last year to Syracuse so they will play hard in this game. The Irish do not have a particularly easy November, with road trips to Pittsburgh and Stanford (both 4-0 at home) wrapped around home games against Navy and Connecticut. They need to roll over the Cougars big or fall out of the rankings again. And this contest may be the final chance to give the young subs some meaningful playing time. This is especially true for QB Dayne Crist, who would take over next year if QB Jimmy Clausen turns pro.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Big East Overview


Three teams, Pittsburgh (4-0, 7-1), Cincinnati (3-0, 7-0) and West Virginia (2-0, 6-1), have separated themselves from the pack in the Big East and with those squads playing each other in almost a mini tournament beginning November 13 when the Mountaineers travel to Cincinnati for a Friday night clash, the title race should be very exciting. All three of them now reside in the Top 20 of the most recent USA Today poll.
West Virginia has the toughest conference road to hoe with additional road tests at South Florida this Friday and against Rutgers at the end of the regular season. At the moment they seem to be the third of the three teams in terms of team strength. They were outgained 501-387y by Connecticut in Saturday’s emotional battle. Dynamic back Noel Devine bailed them out with 178y rushing, including the winning TD on a 56y scamper in the 4th Q. Devine now has 912y rushing on the season with 10 TDs.
Pittsburgh has been on a roll in October, winning four conference games by a 31-16 average margin. They have perhaps the best balance on offense of the contenders as QB Bill Stull has become a leader and frosh RB Dion Lewis continues his brilliant breakthrough. Last season Stull threw only 9 TD passes to 10 INTs while being sacked 25 times. In 2009, through 8 games, he has thrown 16 scoring passes to only 4 picks and has been sacked only 6 times. His passer rating is 161. Lewis has already rushed for 1,029y with 11 TDs and is a good bet to top the rushing total of LeSean McCoy from last season (308/1488y).
Cincinnati has earned the lion’s share of national attention for the Big East and currently sits in the no. 7 spot in the USA Today poll. The Bearcats average 40.7 pts per game on offense and allow an average of 13.7 pts per game on defense. You will win a lot of games with those numbers. QB Tony Pike’s recovery from a forearm injury is the headline, although the play of soph QB Zach Collaros (25-35/454y, 5 TDs, 1 INT) in relief has been a revelation. Collaros is already third on the team in rushing with 191y, gaining 75y on one brilliant scoring run versus South Florida. The Bearcats defense has surprised many, although there is a lot of senior leadership if not so starting experience. Sr LB Andre Revels leads the team with 61 total tackles, sr DT Alex Daniels leads the team in sacks with 5.5 and sr S Aaron Webster shares the team lead with 3 INTs.

ACC Overview


The build-up to the September 26 Virginia Tech-Miami game was that the winner would be in the driver’s seat for the ACC Coastal crown and the heavy favorite for the ACC title and BCS game berth. But as we look at the division one month later we see another squad, red-hot Georgia Tech (5-1, 7-1) in the leader’s seat thanks to a five-game winning streak including a win over Virginia Tech (3-1, 5-2). Miami (2-2, 5-2) has contributed to the suddenly good fortunes of Georgia Tech, a team they beat by 16 in mid September, by losing twice since that win. The Canes fell all the way to fifth in the division, although they have played a much tougher schedule to date than either Duke (2-1, 4-3) or Virginia (2-1, 3-4).

The Yellow Jackets have become the class of the conference at mid-season by running their offense superbly and doing just enough on defense. Quickly QB Josh Nesbitt is winning over his critics with his brilliant decision-making on the team’s various option reads. In Saturday’s win in the rain at Virginia, Nesbitt was far better than his numbers suggest. He completed 4-8 for 85y and rushed 21 times for 82y with 2 TDs. But his pitches were uncanny in their timing and accuracy. And the much-maligned Georgia Tech defense has come around, playing exceptionally well on third down Saturday in holding the Cavs to 2-11 conversions.

Commentators always remind us about how difficult it is for an offense like Tech’s to rally when trailing, but never seem to mention that it may be the best offense in the country with a lead. Take the past game. Ahead 13-6 at the start of the second half, the Yellow Jackets unleashed an 18-play, 82y drive that sapped both 10:47 from the clock and the will of the Virginia defense. The team was now winning by only two scores, yet it may as well have been five. Keep up this level of play Yellow Jackets and you can achieve big things this season.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

After Midnight

For once this college football season, there was little drama after midnight.


Boise State more than took care of business at hapless Hawaii. Southern California had plenty of challenges in its home win over Oregon State, but really was never in danger in the second half.
The most notable late game probably was Stanford’s easy victory over Arizona State, now 4-3. The Cardinal, now sporting a 5-3 mark, used a balanced attack that included TB Toby Gerhart’s 127 yards rushing against ASU’s second-in-the-nation run defense. In leading 24-0 at the halftime break, Stanford played as termed by Fox Sports Network commentator Petros Papadakis “as nearly a perfect half as possible.”


In the fourth quarter (well after midnight in the East), Sun Devils fans got what they’ve been screaming for most of the season. Starting fifth-year-senior quarterback Danny Sullivan, who had opened the third quarter with a touchdown pass to WR Chris McGaha, went out with a twisted knee. In trotted freshman QB Brock Osweiler, one of the most renowned passers ever to leave high school from Montana.

The TV cameras revealed Osweiler to be a bit of a short-arm thrower, but he got no help from a case of the “drops” by his receivers. Osweiler’s tepid aerial debut went 1-for-7 for 18 yards.
If viewers wanted to see a sparkling frosh QB, they surely enjoyed the performance of Stanford’s Andrew Luck, who pitched 17-for-28 for 236 yards. Luck, the son of former West Virginia and Houston Oilers QB Oliver Luck, fakes sharply with the ball, throws well on the run, and showed excellent accuracy last night. Is their Heisman talk coming his way in about 2011?
--Bob Boyles

Remember When

K Scott Sisson celebrates game-winning FG


The University of Virginia’s Scott Stadium is not considered one of the tougher places to bring a college football team, yet Georgia Tech had been stymied there eight straight times since winning one of the biggest games in recent school history. The date was November 3, 1990 and coach George Welsh’s Cavaliers were 7-0 and ranked no. 1 in the country. Into Charlottesville arrived a talented bunch of Yellow Jackets, whose only blemish on the season was a tie with North Carolina two weeks prior. As told in the USA Today College Football Encyclopedia, the game proved to be a classic and was our choice as Game of the Year:


Georgia Tech 41 VIRGINIA 38: Virginia (7-1) QB Shawn Moore set school record with 344y on 18-28 passing, WR Herman Moore caught 9/234y, including fake-reverse 63y TD bomb in 3rd Q. All seemed in order for no. 1 Virginia in taking 10-0 lead in 1st Q, 28-14 lead by H. But, resourceful Georgia Tech (7-0-1) took advantage of 2 3rd Q errors to tie it at 28-28. Tech scored four plays after recovering FUM on opening possession of 3rd Q. LB Calvin Tuggle’s INT at Jackets 10YL stopped ensuing Cavs drive; and Georgia Tech gained field position for QB Shawn Jones’ (17-29/257y, 2 TDs) 26y scoring pass to WR Emmett Merchant. Virginia’s Moores then countered with their long TD bomb, but RB William Bell tied it 35-35 with 8y run late in 3rd Q. Tech took its 1st lead on K Scott Sisson’s 35y FG with 7:17 left. Back came Virginia, gaining 1st-and-goal 6 inches from GL, a move sparked by 48y Moore-to-Moore pass. But, Cavs were penalized twice in next 5 plays, once nullifying TE Aaron Mundy’s TD catch. Virginia had to settle for K Jake McInerney’s tying FG with 2:30 to go. Jackets went 56y in 5 plays to position Sisson for game-winning FG with 7 secs left, keys being Jones-to-Bell 23y pass, Bell’s 13y run on which he fell on own FUM, and Jones-to-WR Greg Lester 15y pass.


With Georgia Tech winning yesterday, perhaps they can dream of history repeating itself with another national championship. While that is unlikely, very few people thought that the 1990 team could win a share of the crown as they did after beating Nebraska in the Florida Citrus Bowl on January 1, 1991.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Weekly Picks

Bob’s Picks for Oct. 24, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob’s picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-1, Season: 15-15

Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29, failed to cover 21, 4 “Pushes” (ties), one No Line
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 154, failed to cover 171 (47.38%)
Mid-Season Trends
As I sloshed through the earliest snowfall in the official meteorological history of State College, Pennsylvania, last weekend, I came away with cold feet and the sense that two point-spread trends are starting to emerge at mid-season.
Each of these trends is fairly predictable for the middle of any college season. First of all, favorites are beginning to flex their muscles. (Never mind that Paul and I combined to successfully pick four dogs last week.) Las Vegas is getting a better feel for what teams should earn favorite’s roles, while the high hopes of some likely underdogs are beginning to fade into the depressed records like 1-5, 2-5, 2-4, or 3-4.
Last week’s favorites (October 17 weekend) covered their spreads a season-best 58 percent, the best previous week coming the prior week (October 10) when they broke even at 50 percent. For the season (see above), favorites are covering below break-even at 47.38%.
Some good looking favorites this week include MIAMI -5 over Clemson, Oklahoma State -9.5 over BAYLOR, ARIZONA -7.5 over Ucla, Tcu -2 over BYU, and LSU -7.5 over Auburn.
The other trend can be found—somewhat contrarily—in often attractive double-digit-home-underdogs (DDHD for short). Selectors can’t be indiscriminant in this area because often some terrible teams fall into this category. But teams still harboring a flicker of bowl-game hope can be very attractive even if they can’t win outright.
Last week DDHDs went 6-3 ATS with Purdue and Colorado springing full-blown upsets over ranked foes. This week’s slate offers eight DDHDs: ARMY +10 vs. Rutgers, MIAMI (OHIO) -11 vs. Northern Illinois, WASHINGTON +10 vs. Oregon, MISSOURI +13 vs. Texas, RICE +10 vs. Central Florida, MISSISSIPPI STATE +23 vs. Florida, NEW MEXICO STATE +24 vs. Fresno State, and HAWAII +25 vs. Boise State.
Of these I think you can throw out half: Army can’t score sufficiently, Rice is plain awful, and I know too little about Miami (Ohio) and New Mexico State to recommend them. The other DDHDs all have some interesting juice going for them: Washington (fired up for Oregon and much improved this year), Missouri (playing Texas after the Longhorns’ huge effort against rival Oklahoma), Mississippi State (with a head coach who knows Florida inside and out), and Hawaii (playing at home on distant shores).

Here are my picks for the week of October 24:
Saturday (12:30 p.m. EDT): Oklahoma State (-9.5) at BAYLOR
The Cowboys have slipped under the radar since losing to Houston back in the second week of the year. But Oklahoma State still has plenty of weapons. Baylor looked like it was just about to earn its way into bowl contention when quarterback Robert Griffin went down with a knee injury. And perhaps no team in the country depended so much on one player as Baylor depended on Griffin. Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Clemson (+5) at MIAMI
The Clemson Tigers are up and down like much of the ACC. Meanwhile, Miami, striving to be the class of the conference, keeps rolling except for the one disaster at Virginia Tech. Pick: Miami -5

Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Oregon (-10) at WASHINGTON
This is a bigger rivalry than most fans realize, at least those who live outside the Pacific Northwest. Washington, with some fine efforts under its belt this year, is smarting under five straight losses to the Ducks. The Huskies might not win this one, but going with DDHD magic, they look to make it mighty close in a game that could go either way. Pick: Washington +10
Saturday (7:30 p.m. EDT): Texas Christian (-2) at BRIGHAM YOUNG
The winner of this showdown will take a big step toward the Mountain West title. Undefeated TCU at 6-0 can catch Boise State for the one BCS Bowl spot not reserved for the major conferences because the Frogs meet two very good opponents (BYU and Utah) in their last six games. Boise, meanwhile, plays the Merchant Marine Academy, East Cupcake State, and Boise Central Junior High School. Pick: TCU -2
Paul’s picks for the week of October 24:
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-0, Season: 16-13
Messing with Karma
Well I followed a week featuring picks that went 0-4 with a week in which I was 3-0. Go figure. I am doing something today for the first time in my moderately long life: picking against the team I have rooted for since day one, Notre Dame. Will that doom me to another week of lousy picking? Or will my hot hand from last week—including a win picking ND—continue even though I have sullied my reputation in South Bend. Go Irish! Win by seven!

Friday (8:00 pm EDT): Rutgers (-10) at ARMY
I am picking against the trend Bob mentioned about double digit home underdogs as Rutgers is in its annual rush to secure six or seven wins and a spot in the Papajohns.com Bowl or the International Bowl. They have more talent, like playing on Friday night and do not have to travel very far. Pick: Rutgers -10.

Saturday (1:30 pm EDT): Maryland (+6) at DUKE
I have not had many opportunities to pick Duke as a six-point favorite in a conference game and will not let this opportunity slip by. Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis has been fully indoctrinated in coach David Cutcliffe’s “Yes, You Too Can be a Great Quarterback” tutorials and is playing at a level too high for a reeling Maryland squad. Pick: Duke -6.

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Boston College (+8) at NOTRE DAME
This game will be similar to the Michigan State game for the Irish in that they will be happy just to beat a team that has had their number over the years. Boston College has won six straight in this series because these contests mean so much more to them than to a Notre Dame program with a number of more established rivalries. Playing the Irish one week after USC came to town certainly helps. One big problem for the Eagles, however, is that they played poorly in road losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech. Pick: BC +8.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Pac 10 Update


This was the season to get the season ticket package for the Washington Huskies (3-4, 2-2). They have played four home games so far this season against a loaded schedule of good football teams. The Huskies opened the season by losing a tough game to LSU, in a game that proved that this Washington squad was not a pushover. The following week they hosted a solid Idaho team, currently 3-0 in WAC play, and gave them their only loss on the season to date. Next up was the upset of Southern Cal which stamped the Huskies as officially back from the abyss. After dropping two straight on the road, Washington returned home to meet an Arizona squad that was riding high. A crazy and late TD won that one for the home team. Next up? The surging Oregon Ducks come visit beautiful Husky Stadium this Saturday. They had better come prepared. While QB Jake Locker is the featured player for Washington, the team has seen improvement across the board. They have not beaten Oregon since 2003 and have not looked good in dropping five straight series games. But this squad has a different feel to it, especially at home.

As for Oregon (5-1, 3-0), the stakes are extremely high. The Ducks sit atop the Pac 10 standings with their 3-0 record but four programs—USC, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon State—are all sitting one game behind at 2-1 and more importantly still await the Ducks on the 2009 schedule. And the two other teams left for Oregon, Stanford and Washington, both host the Ducks in stadiums that are tough places to play (Stanford and Washington are combined 6-1 at home this year) and do so sandwiching the Oregon-USC game that the national media is focusing on as the battle for the conference. So Oregon has done a nice job getting on a roll after dropping game one to Boise. But the job is only half finished.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Big 12 Blues


Was it just one year ago that the Big 12 was riding high with four members of the top 10? By November the national media had cleared away any and all competition to the notion that the best of the Big 12 would meet the best of the SEC in the BCS title game. Of course choosing the best team in the conference proved problematic, but that should not have reflected too poorly on the quality of play in the Big 12 in 2008.

Things are not looking too rosy this year. Sure Texas is ranked high but do the Longhorns, especially on offense, really look like a great team? The conference’s other heavyweight, Oklahoma, sits at 3-3 with two losses outside of conference. Oklahoma State has won five of its first six games but has garnered more attention for the suspension of star WR Dez Bryant than for play on the field. They also have yet to play either Texas or Oklahoma. Texas Tech has been up-and-down this season, Texas A&M has tanked and the other Big 12 South member, Baylor, has had to deal with the loss of dynamic QB Robert Griffin. The North? The hope for Texas or Oklahoma State for that matter would have been a strong team emerging in the North to give the South winner a potential BCS boost in the conference title game. This past weekend’s action made it clear that there will be no BCS boost come December as the three leading contenders, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri all lost. Nebraska has no QB, Kansas still has a brutal remaining schedule and Missouri cannot match up with the nation’s better teams.

It seems that the bad luck from this year is payment for an unusually good 2008. The Big 12 was not as good as it seemed last year and is not as bad as it seems this year. What lies in between is a very good conference, but one that relies on too many teams with limited potential (Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State). The North, which was once the dominant division in the league, must produce challengers to the throne, while the South powers need to win more national recruiting battles. Hopefully the divisional races this year can produce some fun the rest of the way.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

After Midnight


With East Coast insomniacs in mind, college football produced yet another wild finish to the last game on the schedule and for the second straight week the game involved the Washington Huskies. One week after stunning Arizona with a fluky, late INT TD RETURN, Washington made the mistake of playing for OT deep in their own territory in their game against Arizona State. This is the Pac 10 and it is a late game, so coach Steve Sarkisian should have known better. For one thing he needed to either play for the extra session or go for it. By doing both—the Huskies ran twice to face a 3rd-and-1 and then had an incompletion on a long pass—he hoped to waste clock that ASU could use and maybe get lucky himself. But the net result was a punt that set up ASU at midfield with enough time for a desperation pass. Sun Devils QB Danny Sullivan (21-35/263y)—who can drop his new first name “embattled”—dropped back to throw and must have not believed his eyes ("Oh my God, he is that wide open," recollected Sullivan after the game). There was WR Chris McGaha, the active conference leader in career receptions and yards, wide open as he raced down the middle of the field to the EZ. Sullivan threw what became his longest career completion to date as McGaha (catch pictured above) cradled the ball deep in Washington territory and then trotted into the EZ with five seconds left. McGaha had missed practice all week with an illness and only made this one catch. It was memorable. So too the last game of another crazy week in college football.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Remember When


The rivalry between Notre Dame and Southern California has been lopsided of late and has been lopsided for each team over different periods. From 1940 through 1961 the Irish compiled a 15-3-1 record in the series. From 1967 through 1982, the Trojans dominated by going 12-2-2. Then from 1983 through 1995, Notre Dame went a stunning 12-0-1. And now, of course, USC is on a seven-game series win streak. Despite such dominance a number of the match-ups of the past have been compelling struggles between programs with such storied histories. One game that went down to the wire was the Southern California-Notre Dame clash from 1978 that featured the defending national champion Irish and a Trojan team that would go on to share the title that year with Alabama. Here is the recap of the game played on November 25, 1978 from The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia:

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 27 Notre Dame 25: One of the finest finishes in the storied rivalry followed 3 Qs of domination by Trojans (10-1). Entering 4th Q with 24-6 lead, USC was on 96y march to finish off Irish. But, ND held, forcing short FG ATT that K Frank Jordan missed. QB Joe Montana (20-41/358y, INT), “Comeback Kid” for Notre Dame (8-3), sparked 19 straight pts, hitting WR Kris Haines (9/179y) for 57y TD, completing 4 to Haines to set up 1y TD run by FB Pete Buchanan, and throwing go-ahead 2y TD to WR Pete Holohan with 46 secs left. Irish led 25-24 and nearly ended it on USC’s 2nd play after KO as DT Jeff Weston recovered what appeared to be FUM by QB Paul McDonald (17-29/281y, 2 TDs). Controversial play was ruled incomplete pass. WR Calvin Sweeney (5/105y) then caught 35y pass, and TB Charles White (37/205y) gained 5y before Jordan booted winning 37y FG. USC gained 538y, most ever allowed to date by Notre Dame.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Weekly Picks


After going 0-4 last week I feel that Bob (he did go 3-1) and I do not need to bore you with facts and fancy narrative about trends or why some team’s left guard is that much better than the opposing team’s right defensive tackle. We are stripping down the predictions section of this blog to just the picks. Here they are:

Bob’s Picks for Oct. 17, 2009

Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 13-14

Saturday (Noon EDT): Texas (-3.5) versus Oklahoma (Dallas)
Pick: Texas -3.5

Saturday (Noon EDT): Iowa (+3) at WISCONSIN
Pick: Iowa +3

Saturday (7:00 pm EDT): Illinois (-2) at INDIANA
Pick: Indiana +2

Paul’s Picks for Oct. 17, 2009

Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 0-4, Season: 13-13

Saturday (Noon EDT): Louisville at CONNECTICUT (-10)
Pick: Connecticut -10

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Southern California (-10) at NOTRE DAME
Pick: Notre Dame +10

Saturday (7:00 pm EDT): Kansas (-10) at COLORADO
Pick: Colorado +10

Thursday, October 15, 2009

SEC State of Mind


It is a shame that Florida and South Carolina do not meet until November 14 as the Gamecocks have established themselves as the second-best team in the SEC East and the only team with much of a chance to challenge the Gators for first place. That their match-up will be held late in the year is only a problem if the Gators continue to pull away. To stay one game back in the standings after this weekend South Carolina must travel to red-hot Alabama and win or hope Arkansas stuns Florida in Gainesville. With road games with Tennessee and Arkansas left on their schedule in addition to Alabama, we cannot project the Gamecocks adding any excitement to the East race.

Out West it is hard to imagine Mississippi, one of the nation’s most disappointing teams, reinserting itself into the race to unseat Alabama. The Rebels still have to prove that they are the best squad in their state let alone division. But if they can turn things around the Rebels will have a say about how the race plays out as they travel to Auburn on Halloween and host LSU on November 21. QB Jevan Snead needs to forget about his plummeting NFL draft staus for a moment and do whatever it takes to get the O rolling in the second half of the season. Mississippi hosts UAB this weekend which should allow Snead a chance to fully execute the gameplan one week after the Tide D did its best to prevent that from happening.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

ACC Overview


With the media focus for the ACC centered on the nightmarish situation with Florida State, we at Sunday Morning Quarterbacks want to keep our eyes centered on the on-field action. FSU’s most recent opponent, Georgia Tech, has enjoyed a mini resurgence after losing to Miami in September. The Yellow Jackets have won three straight including the past two on the road. In the wins at Mississippi State and Florida State, Tech has scored a combined 91 pts. QB Josh Nesbitt escalated his play, completing 11-14 passes for 266y and a TD against the Bulldogs and then throwing for 131y and a TD while rushing for 140y and 3 TDs against the Seminoles. Nesbitt has to somehow maintain a high level of play despite the huge jump in D talent he will encounter this Saturday against Virginia Tech. What does bode well for Georgia Tech is that the Hokies have done their impressive work this season in Blacksburg. They have only played two games so far away from home, losing easily to Alabama on a neutral field to open the season and then playing poorly at Duke on October 3rd. The Hokies only won one of four conference road games last season and need to prove that they can handle a hostile environment for what should be their toughest road game remaining.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Big East Recap


There are two key Big East matchups for the week and neither will be played on Saturday. Cincinnati and South Florida, who are both 5-0 overall and 1-0 in conference play, meet up in Tampa. The Bearcats have won three straight in the series, all surprisingly as slight underdogs. South Florida opened as a favorite in this contest too, which bodes well for the high-flying visitors. This game pits the excellent D of the Bulls against Cincinnati QB Tony Pike and his favorite receiver, WR Mardy Gilyard. Pike has thrown for 1,493y and 13 TDs this season, with Gilyard catching 38 passes for 517y and 7 TDs. South Florida needs to get pressure on Pike and take advantage of something that has plagued the Bearcats this year because of their great success: the amount of time the Cincinnati D spends on the field thanks to some quick scoring drives by the O. If the Bulls can run the ball effectively and force Cincy into some quick 3-and-outs while surrendering a limited number of quick scoring drives, the South Florida O may be able to exploit a tired Bearcats D. Young QB B.J. Daniels does not have to match Pike pass for pass for the Bulls to win; his key is to keep the ground game humming. The stakes are high in this game for both the teams and the conference.

At this time last year Cincinnati, the eventual conference champion, was under the radar due to an unsettled QB position and an early season blowout loss to Oklahoma. They would lose their second Big East game of the year to Connecticut by the stunning score of 40-16. In other words, conference championships are won in November. That said, Rutgers (4-1, 0-1) can get back into the conference race with a home win over Pittsburgh (5-1, 2-0). The Scarlet Knights rightfully fell off the map after being trounced at home in week one by Cincinnati, 47-15. Frosh QB Tom Savage is the present and future for RU, while the D needs to prove that they can stop a legitimate O after last week’s shutout of Texas Southern. For the Panthers, the pressure is on to maintain pace with whichever team wins Thursday night. Pitt was in the same position last year when they met Rutgers, having won five of six games overall and sporting a 2-0 conference record. They lost 54-34 to drop their 4th straight in the series. Needless to say they will not be looking ahead to South Florida, their next opponent. QB Bill Stull is the key for the visitors as he was having a very good season until getting rattled a bit in the narrow win over UConn.

Monday, October 12, 2009

View From Bennett Avenue




It was only a couple of years ago that the Notre Dame schedule was lambasted for the presence of the service academies. Forget for a moment that these programs are on the schedule in place of FCS schools or low-ranking members of non-BCS conferences. And forget for a moment that Navy and Air Force have been bowl teams more often than not in recent years. The term “service academy” was synonymous with weak football.

Is it time to rewrite that tired script? Navy, Army and Air Force put on a great display of disciplined football this past Saturday and came away with two impressive wins and a narrow loss to a highly-ranked foe. Navy bumped their won-loss record to 4-2 with a 63-14 rout of Rice in Houston. Dazzling QB Ricky Dobbs, who first made a name for himself in the team’s near win over Ohio State to open the season, rushed for 104y and 4 TDs. Army evened their mark to 3-3 with a 16-13 OT upset of Vanderbilt, a program from the big, bad SEC who went bowling last year. The Cadets chewed up 222y on the ground to stay even with the Commodores until a huge forced FUM by the D in the first extra session was followed by the winning 42y FG (pictured) by K Alex Carlton. Air Force is also 3-3 after a narrow 20-17 loss to unbeaten TCU. The Falcons stayed close in the Mountain West battle thanks to a 3-0 win in the TO department.

The more complicated the schemes become for college football on both offense and defense, the better it is for the academies. While their opposition struggles to learn a playbook the size of a phone book or the myriad differences between a host of new-fangled formations, the players from Army, Navy and Air Force can run their plays in their sleep they repeat them so often. And the kids they see on the opposing side of the ball have not been prepared adequately to face them. Teams are now built around both passing the ball on O and defending the pass on D. Playing the option? Not in the discussion. Plus we have been hearing for years that the academies are not supposed to compete against programs that have physical advantages, more NFL-type players. Well TCU DE Jerry Hughes is a both an All America candidate and a pro prospect. Against Air Force he managed 1 assist. And ask the Ohio State Buckeyes if they would want to face Navy again anytime soon.

In addition to the academies and their squads and their coaches, let’s give some kudos to CBSCS network for their dedication to the presentation of Army, Navy and Air Force sports. With ESPN not caring too much about their games, these programs have joined forces with CBSCS. And the network, who has gone through as many name changes as Jennifer Lopez over the years, built up this past Saturday as a chance to watch all three teams in action on Armed Forces Appreciation Day. With a week’s worth of build-up—we loved watching some Navy highlights of teams from the ‘50s and ‘60s—the network then got a deserved break with some exciting action on Saturday. Well with two of the games anyway as the Navy rout was not much fun to watch. Then Army won that crazy game with Vanderbilt in which both kickers knocked FGs in off the upright at game’s end. And Air Force rallied from a 14-0 deficit, when the Horned Frogs looked to out-talent them out of Falcon Stadium, with spirited play.

It was fun to watch, which was a bonus for fans of these players who will one day very soon have more to worry about than where Jerry Hughes is on every play.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

After Midnight

Usually our “After Midnight” posts focus on late night happenings on the West Coast, but last night bad weather in the Florida Panhandle forced the Florida State-Georgia Tech game into a long delay and an after midnight finish.

It was a long night, almost as long as coach Bobby Bowden’s week. Saturday didn’t help him one bit as afterward he admitted to ESPN cameras: “We just couldn’t stop them.” That’s for sure. Georgia Tech gained 401 yards rushing and 532 yards in total offense on the way to a 49-44 victory over the fading Seminoles, now 2-4 and 0-3 in the ACC.

It is hard to see how Bowden is going to survive past this season. If he is to be bounced by Florida State by season’s end, he would seem to have no chance of catching Joe Paterno as the all-time winningest Division I coach. Penn State’s Paterno, a winner earlier in the day over feeble Eastern Illinois of the FCS, leads Bowden 388 wins to 383. Both coaches have six regular season games left this year.

This brings up a point that has irritated us for awhile. Nothing against Bowden; he has been a great ambassador for college football. But, how in the world has the NCAA counted his 31 victories in 1959-62 at Howard College (now known as Samford University)? When Bowden coached his alma mater Howard, the school played in what was called the College Division. The higher University Division not only included the major powers of what we now call the FBS (I-A) but also many of the schools that make up the current FCS (I-AA), such teams as Furman, Montana, Villanova, and the Ivy League schools. When Barry Bonds approached Henry Aaron’s career home run record, did baseball count in Bonds’ minor league round-trippers? Of course not. So why count Bowden’s wins over Millsaps and Sewanee? In reality Bowden trails Paterno 352 to 388.

No “After Midnight” post can go without strange circumstances occurring on the “Left Coast” and last night’s Washington-Arizona tilt from Seattle was no exception.
Young, blond Texan quarterback Nick Foles played a brilliant third quarter and two-thirds of the fourth quarter to put his Arizona Wildcats in control of the game at 33-21 as the fourth quarter wound down.

Foles’ Huskies counterpart, Jake Locker, managed a TD pass with less than three minutes left to pull Washington to within 33-28. Hoping to force a punt and get one last chance, UW booted long on its kickoff.

On first down, Foles tried a delayed short slant-in pass to his wide receiver Delashaun Dean. Foles’ throw was low and behind his target. In attempting to make the catch, Dean lurched backwards and dug out a pop-up of the low pass that arrived just off the ground. The soft carom went off the edge of Dean’s foot and looped in a perfectly-timed arch to Washington linebacker Mason Foster (on right in above photo). Having mistakenly run past Dean (into the Arizona backfield) on his coverage, Foster curled back to catch the interception, then reversed his field for a stunning 37-yard touchdown return. When Locker lobbed a two-point pass, Washington had a 36-33 lead it would hold for the last two minutes.

Foster’s interception had to be one of the most bizarre, late game-deciding plays that ever occurred. But that’s what often happens out West while the East happily sleeps.

--Bob Boyles

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Remember When




After meeting twice in the mid ‘40s, Syracuse and West Virginia began playing on an annual basis in 1955. The rivalry was defined by hard play as the teams knocked heads together in games that were almost as much about proving toughness as they were about wins and losses. Today the two Big East rivals play for the Schwartzwalder Trophy, named for long-time Syracuse coach Ben Schwartzwalder who played at West Virginia.

The 1955 game pitted two solid Eastern squads searching for national recognition. Each team featured a future Hall of Famer in great Syracuse back Jim Brown and Mountaineer lineman Sam Huff, who began their famous rivalry on this day. Here is the action from 54 years ago (11/19/55) as depicted in The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia:

Syracuse 20 WEST VIRGINIA 13: Short-handed due to injuries from its bruising defeat to Pittsburgh, West Virginia (7-2) was unable to use its alternating units. It showed as Syracuse (5-3) HB Jimmy Brown wore down Mountaineers D in steady snowstorm, and Brown did it right from the start, going 71y with opening KO. Orangemen failed to score on that opportunity thanks to holding PEN but stayed steady despite slipping behind 13-6 at H. West Virginia scored on HB Joe Marconi’s 6y sweep early in 2nd Q after HB Bob Moss’ 64y spurt, saw Orange tie it on QB Eddie Albright’s short TD keeper, and went ahead late in 2nd Q on QB Mickey Trimarki’s 24y pass to HB Ralph Anastasio. WVU made nary single 1st down in 2nd H until last 2 mins. By then it was too late as Albright launched TD passes of 47y to E Jim Ridlon and 12y to E Dick Lasse.



Oddly, the Orange became ranked at no. 20 in the AP Poll after this win in their final game of the season. West Virginia would beat a mediocre North Carolina State squad one week later and then take the no. 19 spot in the final poll from November 28. Syracuse dropped out despite having beaten the Mountaineers nine days earlier. And you thought the polls were screwy today!

Friday, October 9, 2009

Weekly Picks


Bob’s Picks for Oct. 10, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 10-13

All Games listed in Danny Sheridan’s “Today’s Lines” column
Last Week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 28, one “Push” (tie), one Even
Season ATS: Favorites covered 101, failed to cover 126

Gotta know when to hold ‘em

Picking games against the point-spread is plenty difficult and even worse when bookies handle your action, legally or illegally. Truth is, bookies keep all your losses and 10 percent of your winnings—known as “Viggerish”—and the “Vig” keeps the professionals prospering in a dandy business. Best to pick games ATS just for fun.

In addition to picking winners, there is an additional challenge: Knowing what games to stay away from. That is, “knowing when to hold ‘em,” as the old Kenny Rogers song went.

There are two truly fascinating contests this Saturday because of events leading up to the games. Those would be Florida at LSU and Georgia Tech at Florida State. I’m telling you: “Stay away!”

The playing status of former Heisman-winning Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is questionable due to the concussion he suffered two weeks ago. It would seem Tebow will be held out against LSU, but even if he plays one wonders how effective he can be, given his wonderful slam-bang style. That’s a strike against the top-ranked Gators, a 7.5 favorite on the road at Tiger Stadium against no. 4 LSU. On the other hand, Florida’s outstanding defense, inspired so often by Tebow in the past, might just rise up to muzzle the Tigers’ still-developing offense.

Then there is undefeated LSU, a tremendous home team with its own outstanding defense. Computer whiz Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings, found every Tuesday in USA TODAY, give the Tigers a 10.05 advantage over Florida, one of the largest edges this weekend. Usually a 6-point advantage in Sagarin numbers is significant enough to earn serious consideration for the higher rated team.

Over in Tallahassee, veteran coach Bobby Bowden of 2-3 Florida State has had a very tough week as the chairman of the board of trustees essentially said he wants Bowden out by season’s end.

Georgia Tech, a somewhat up-and-down team this year but up significantly the last two weeks, would look like a spectacular choice as a 2.5 underdog in an ordinary week. But, can’t you just see the Seminole players performing out of their minds for a beloved coach? If Georgia Tech can use its dynamic running game to get ahead by a couple of touchdowns, an emotional Florida State might collapse. Who can tell about the Seminoles who were bad enough nearly to be beaten by Jacksonville State and good enough to go all the way to Utah to smash undefeated Brigham Young?

Both games ought to be fascinating, but simply too tough to call.
So, here is what I think is safer to choose:

Saturday (Noon EDT): Purdue (-3.5) at MINNESOTA
Even though the Golden Gophers are 1-2 in their new on-campus home, they have played pretty well. On the horizon is a pair of road trips to Penn State and Ohio State and a visit from rebounding Michigan State. Minnesota simply has to win this game, right now. Fading Purdue was bitten in tough losses to Oregon and Notre Dame and currently is suffering a four-game slide. It could get worse. Pick: Minnesota -3.5

Saturday (12:20 pm EDT): Georgia (Even) at TENNESSEE
A month ago I thought Tennessee might beat UCLA—the Vols lost—and lose to Florida—the Vols lost but played tough—and if the Vols could earn a split in back-to-back home games against Auburn and Georgia, Tennessee had a chance at winning eight games. The Vols lost to Auburn last week, so this is an important contest. And despite all the bombast, coach Lane Kiffin has done a decent job with a team that lost seven games last year. That said I can’t get over that Georgia, a mild disappointment, still is playing better than Tennessee, and Vols QB Jonathan Crompton is having a terrible year. Pick: Georgia Even

Saturday (12:30 pm EDT): Houston (+1) at MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Maroon Bulldogs are improving, but Houston, a passing powerhouse behind quarterback Case Keenum, ought to be able to outscore Mississippi State. Still, Houston’s run defense got gored last week at Texas-El Paso and will have to shore up against the nation’s 16th-leading rushing offense of the Bulldogs. Pick: Houston +1

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Navy (-11.5) at RICE
Winless Rice might have lost more irreplaceable players off last year’s squad than any team in the nation: QB Chase Clement, the Owls’ all-time passing yardage leader, WR Jarrett Dillard, Rice’s all-time leading pass receiver, and TE James Casey, Rice’s fourth all-time leader in receiving yards who caught 111 passes for 1,329 yards in 2008. This year’s Owls have lost by an average margin of 23.6 points in five defeats. This is no time to welcome Navy’s well-drilled ball-control offense, 6th-best in the nation. Pick: Navy -11.5

Paul’s Picks for Oct. 10, 2009:

Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 13-9

Put up or shut up

We are at the point in any college football season when teams that have produced startling early season won-loss records have to prove that they are legitimate conference title challengers. Teams like undefeated Auburn, for example, need to translate their successful start to the season into long-term prosperity as the pressure increases.

Wisconsin is one such team that has had recent struggles as the trees around Camp Randall begin to turn color. Last year the Badgers failed to capitalize on a 3-0 start by dropping their first four Big Ten games. Two years ago Wisconsin opened the season with five straight victories to move all the way up to no. 5 in the country before dropping out of the rankings entirely with two straight losses. Can they reverse this recent trend by returning home from Columbus with an upset victory?

What’s beautiful about betting/making predictions for fun is that it almost does not matter. If the Badgers play hard but lose by 10 points, they will drop to 5-1 for the season and remain unranked. But, those fans picking Wisconsin will get the W as the Badgers are 16-point underdogs. I love those talented dogs.

Here are my picks for the week with the focus on finding value from games with point spreads that are a bit off.

Saturday (Noon EDT): Boston College (+13) at VIRGINIA TECH
For the past two seasons Boston College has beaten Virginia Tech in the regular season before losing to them in a rematch in the ACC title game. Many college football fans around the country have viewed this as a case of BC getting lucky in mid-season before the talent of the Hokies shone through with a BCS berth on the line. Phooey I say as the Eagles have built a program featuring tough, hard-nose players who give full effort no matter where they play. Add in the boost to the O given by 25-year-old QB Dave Shinskie the past two games (31-51/439y, 5 TDs, INT vs Wake and FSU) and the Eagles play the Hokies tight. Pick: Boston College +13.

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Indiana (+6) at VIRGINIA
Both FBS teams from the Commonwealth State are home this weekend and both are favored by too many points. The season for the Cavs was spiraling out of control before the squad righted the ship with a big win at UNC. Now they go home where they have lost four straight games over the past two seasons to find an improved Hoosiers squad. Indiana has already beaten Akron on the road and narrowly lost to Michigan away from home. Happy that they do not see Buckeye defenders staring their way, the Hoosiers O will bounce back. They can easily win this game, which is a factor when picking underdogs. Pick: Indiana +6

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Wisconsin (+16) at OHIO STATE
Wisconsin has enough on D to play with Ohio State’s middling O. The question for the Badgers is whether their mix of veterans and impressive new starters on O can penetrate the excellent Buckeyes D. Big RB John Clay is a load against any front seven and veteran targets like TE Garrett Graham and WR Nick Toon will make things easier for QB Scott Tolzien as Wisconsin hangs tough. After winning three of four games in this series earlier this decade, the Badgers have lost consecutive games to the Buckeyes. But again, they do not have to win this one to prove the spread too large. Pick: Wisconsin +16

Saturday (10:00 pm EDT): Arizona (-3) at WASHINGTON
Well Arizona, this is it. Do you want to improve on last year’s solid, but little known, 8-5 record? Do you want to contend for the Pac 10 title? Get ranked? Play in January? Well, do not blow this game. With a week to prepare, the Wildcats return to the Pacific Northwest for the second time this season with the goal of a second Pac 10 road win. Soph QB Nick Foles has been very impressive and stud RB Nic Grigsby returns from injury to face a Husky D that is not very good against the run. Washington does have the outstanding QB-RB pairing of Jake Locker and Chris Polk and the same happy home environment that helped produce the USC shocker, but an emotional letdown after the close loss to Notre Dame while Arizona was resting will lead to a double figure loss to the underrated Wildcats. Pick: Arizona -3.

Pac 10 Update


It will be a tale of injured QBs at the Rose Bowl this weekend for the marquee Pac 10 match-up. UCLA (0-1; 3-1) QB Kevin Prince returns to the starting lineup after breaking his jaw in game two of the season. Prince’s play is crucial for UCLA’s chances as he can better exploit a banged up Oregon (2-0; 4-1) D secondary which has lost DBs Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper for the season and is hoping to get back injured S T.J. Ward for this game. CB Anthony Gildon will need to step up as he began the season third string before moving up thanks to injuries to Thurmond and Glasper. The Ducks have not faced a QB who could exploit this issue and have to pressure Prince so that he does not have a big game. For the Ducks, QB Jeremiah Masoli is also hurt and sub Nate Costa—himself returning from torn ACL suffered in August of 2008--gets the start. Oregon goes through multiple QBs on an annual basis and Costa is a good one so look for the Ducks to remain aggressive on O with Costa running less than Masoli but throwing downfield more.

Forecasting the playing future of suspended Ducks RB LeGarrette Blount became a bit easier this week as coach Chip Kelly opened the door for a Blount return. In September he and Costa formed an awesome scout team combination. By November we might be saying the same thing about Masoli and the team’s leading rusher LaMichael James.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Big 12 News


The suspension of Oklahoma State (0-0; 3-1) WR Dez Bryant is the focal point of the conference news for this week. Bryant was canned by the NCAA for lying about working out at Neon Deion’s house. With normal sports leagues I would assume that there was more to the story then it appears, with the NCAA I am not so sure. Removing Bryant from the Cowboys for something less than serious is damaging their chances as the Big 12 schedule kicks into gear. If he gets reinstated down the line, the key date is October 31 when Texas (1-0; 4-0) comes to Stillwater. With RB Kendall Hunter banged up, the explosive Cowboys are suddenly looking a bit short for Saturday’s game versus Texas A&M (0-0; 3-1).

Rain is expected to greatly affect the playing conditions for tonight’s Missouri (0-0; 4-0)-Nebraska (0-0; 3-1) game. The Cornhuskers should have the advantage in a quagmire with their strong line play on both sides of the ball and good ground game led by Roy Helu, Jr., but do not underestimate the damage to be done by all the tall receiving targets on the Missouri side of the ball. With so much riding on this match-up of Big 12 North contenders, look for the TO battle to become crucial. Missouri’s soph QB Blaine Gabbert has yet to throw a pick in his first year as starter, but he has never tangled with the likes of DT Ndamukong Suh and the rest of a fierce Husker pass rush. Gabbert is the leading side story to this game as he originally committed to Nebraska coming out of high school only to change to Missouri after Nebraska fired coach Bill Callahan. Nebraska surely could use him as they try to snap a streak of seven straight losses on the road against ranked opponents.

Big Ten Review



Is there time to get on the Wisconsin bandwagon? The toughest opponents on their schedule still await them, with back to back games against Ohio State in Columbus this weekend and versus Iowa at Camp Randall the following Saturday, but the 5-0 Badgers have done some very good work this season. TB John Clay (112/582y, 7 TDs) is one of the nation’s leading rushers, while QB Scott Tolzien’s play has been a revelation. After winning a heated battle for the starting job, Tolzien completed 66% of his passes through the first five games of the season for 1043y and 9 TDs—good for a 154.65 QB rating. He’ll need to play his best this weekend, but as evidenced by his 47y run to set up the eventual winning TD versus Minnesota last week, Tolzien may even be the most dynamic two-way QB in action at The ‘Shoe Saturday.

But, of course, Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes D will have a lot to say about that. Pryor threw three TD passes and ran for a fourth last week against Indiana. With Wisconsin’s run D playing at a high level in 2009, Pryor will need to make plays through the air. Two key figures for the Badgers are DE O’Brien Schofield, who leads the team with 4.5 sacks, and S Chris Maragos, the team leader with 3 INTs. With both teams 2-0 in conference play, this game promises to be a better match-up than the Vegas line suggests.

The other big game in conference play this weekend involves the only other team unbeaten in Big Ten play, Iowa (1-0; 5-0). The Hawkeyes need to beat Michigan to go 6-0 for the first time since 1985. The Hawkeyes’ memorable 12-10 win over Michigan that season not only gave them their sixth win but kept them in the top spot in the polls. This year they host that match-up ranked no. 14. Oddly the Hawkeyes are ranked behind Penn State, despite the win by Iowa in State College two weeks ago and that by beating Arizona the week before they beat Penn State, the Hawkeyes have two victories better than anything on the PSU resume. While the cupcakes continue to be the special at Beaver Stadium with Eastern Illinois’s arrival Saturday, Iowa should finally pass the Nittany Lions in the polls with a win over Michigan. LB Pat Angerer and his D mates are playing at such a high level that Iowa should pull out the win to go 2-0 in the Big Ten.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Conference Tour Part 1


Big East
While the Big East focus the past few weeks has been, rightfully, on South Florida and Cincinnati, who will square off next week, the conference has other schools lurking in the shadows. Two such programs, Pittsburgh and Connecticut, meet Saturday afternoon at Heinz Field. The Panthers have compiled a 4-1 record while showcasing a new star in frosh RB Dion Lewis. Lewis is 5th in FBS rushing with 580y and has 7 rushing TDs with 1 receiving. The 3-1 Huskies counter with some youth of their own as soph QB Cody Endres starts at QB with Zach Frazer still not 100%, soph RB Jordan Todman leads the team in rushing with 396y and frosh WR Isiah Moore is the top receiver with 11 catches for 145y. Endres played well in the road upset of Baylor and will need to exploit the Panthers suspect pass D.

ACC
Ahh, the ACC. Fans of baseball wildcard races much really love a conference loaded with multi-loss teams knocking each other off on a weekly basis. Reader Jim J. points out that only three teams are left unbeaten in conference play: Virginia Tech (no surprise), Maryland (Huh?) and Virginia (Huh?). The Terps should bite the dust this weekend on the road against Wake Forest, but who can be sure with this collection of misfit teams? Virginia Tech hosts Boston College in an interesting match-up. The Hokies have won fairly easily against their former Big East foes in the past two conference championships, but have dropped three straight regular season games. That should change here, but the Eagles will stick around because they play sound D and have received good leadership from Dave Shinskie, their 25-year-old frosh QB. Shinskie is 2-0 as a starter and has thrown five TD passes total in wins over Wake Forest and Florida State.

SEC
Well the SEC now acknowledges that the celebration penalty called against Georgia near the end of their loss to LSU should not have happened. Will the conference now apologize for somehow bothering Georgia’s kick coverage on the ensuing kickoff, brought back by RB Trindon Holliday for 40y? Will the conference please apologize for not allowing the Bulldogs D to tackle RB Charles Scott on the winning 33y TD run two plays later? And why did the conference make Georgia QB Joe Cox throw that pick to LB Perry Riley to end the game moments later? They have a lot of explaining to do.

With that win the SEC West won round one in their battle with the East with a 4-0 record. Of course East standard bearer Florida took the weekend off. The Gators are back in the fray this Saturday with much more than division pride on the line against an LSU team that continues to win in less than pretty fashion. For the Tigers to pull off the upset they will need to protect QB Jordan Jefferson better, after allowing six sacks against Georgia, and will need to get to the Florida QB, whether it be Tim Tebow or back-up John Brantley. Remember, the Gators have lost to at least one SEC West opponent every year since 1999.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Looking like Losers in Louisville

It recently was Fashion Week in New York City, designers, models, and retailers all over the place. I know this because my wife, who dresses very well, follows this sort of thing. I follow college football and I declare this Fashion Week on Sunday Morning Quarterbacks.

Last Friday night, our on-screen DirecTV guide indicated the University of Pittsburgh football team was visiting the largest city in Kentucky to take on Big East rival University of Louisville Cardinals. But the images offered by our properly-aimed-at-the-southern-sky dish indicated something quite different. Apparently, the Panthers were visiting some odd place called “The Ville.”

Emblazoned in white on black on every Louisville jersey was this crass, in-crowd slogan of "The Ville." Many miles away, I reasoned this has become a really cool nickname perpetrated by Louisville students to make their locale feel really cool and special. I’ll begrudgingly refer to the wide-receiving-artist-formerly-known as Chad Johnson of the Cincy (See how much fun this is?) Bengals as Chad Ochocinco, because he legally changed his name. But, for crying out loud, how far can this go, this juvenile trend of placing an official stamp on some common, not cool, not special silliness?

Should Penn State paste lots of yellow smiley faces on their shoulder pads to commemorate "Happy Valley"? Can’t you just see UCLA and USC battling it out to see who can create a pant-leg display of a three-dimensional “Hollywood” sign, lit up especially for night games? If Pete Carroll gets there first, will Rick Neuheisel opt for "Welcome to La-La-land" in UCLA gold?

This could go on and on. The neighborhood around the University of Minnesota is referred to as “Dinkytown.” Charlottesville, the home of the Virginia Cavaliers, is often shortened to “C-ville.” Speaking of the Pittsburgh Panthers, how about letters wrapping around their helmet logos: "Be sure to eat a great Capacola and Cheese Sandwich at famous Primanti Bros. in the Strip District when you next visit…PITT"?

Stop it right now, Louisville Cardinals. You are only bringing attention to your recent losing ways. It could be just as easy to emblazon “Loserville” on your chests.

Perhaps “Sunday Morning Quarterbacks Fashion Week” is here as an annual event. There is so much to poke fun at.


--Bob Boyles

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Stunner Not So Surprising




Kudos to Mike Price, coach of the UTEP Miners, for knocking off a Houston team that was expected to ride roughshod over Conference USA after beating not one, but two Big 12 South powers (well, second-tier powers). After all, his Miners played two Big 12 teams too, Kansas and Texas, but lost to them by a combined 98-14. This game became one of motivation as it was a lot easier for Price to get his charges fired up for a game that could turn around their season than for Houston coach Kevin Sumlin to stop his players from reading their press clippings and forecasts for “running the table.”

The notion that Houston’s performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would force the teams that knock heads with them annually in conference play to surrender to them without a fight was always odd. The talent level at UTEP and Houston is roughly the same. Playing at home and with the motivational advantages listed above make this “upset” not much of a stunner.

But of course that is what makes becoming the darling of the non BCS crowd so difficult. You have to schedule up and then win those games to get noticed, but then once noticed make sure that you take care of business in conference play. Every year we see teams get noticed in September with an upset win, begin to get written about by some pundits, and then fall to a rival or two. It happens all the time yet some pundits still fall for the illusion. If Houston is good enough to beat teams we have heard off, then they must be good enough to crush guys from El Paso or Tulsa. It will be a lot of fun if they can then travel to Mississippi State next week and knock off another team from a BCS conference.

But the main concern for the Cougars must be the Conference USA West race. They are 0-1 and not only trail 1-0 UTEP, but 1-0 SMU and more importantly 2-0 Tulsa. They do not play the Golden Hurricane until November 7, but that game is on the road. Good luck, but then again you have traveled to The Sooner State once before this season and returned with a win.

Meanwhile, Houston QB Case Keenum may have seen his long-shot Heisman race go up in flames despite throwing for 536y and 5 TDs against the 11 guys considered defenders by UTEP. It would have taken a miracle for Keenum to win and any loss will cost him the little attention he was getting. A good performance next week will not hurt, but with so many of the voters having a prejudice against guys from beyond the BCS, he is in trouble.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Remember When


From 1934 through 1991 Arkansas and Texas A&M met on the football field in a game that was always fierce, usually had some bearing on the Southwest Conference race and occasionally had national implications. After the decade of the 1960s, dominated by Frank Broyles’s Razorbacks who won 9 of 10, the two teams battled annually in a heated series that from 1970 until 1991 featured 13 Arkansas wins to 9 by the Aggies.

One such win by the Hogs occurred in the middle of the 1977 season. Arkansas, in their first season under coach Lou Holtz, entered the game played on November 12 with a no. 8 ranking. The Aggies, with their run-first offense led by head coach Emory Bellard, the father of the wishbone, were ranked no. 11. With two evenly-matched squads, the game delivered plenty of excitement. Here is the recap from The USA Today College Football Encyclopedia:

Arkansas 26 TEXAS A&M 20: With game tied at 20-20 late, Hogs (8-1) QB Ron Calcagni hooked up with WR Robert Farrell on 58y scoring pass play to stun Aggies (6-2). Texas A&M used remaining time to race to Arkansas 14YL before Razorbacks DB Patrick Martin came up with game-ending EZ INT. A&M FB George Woodard (28/116y) and HB Curtis Dickey (20/101y) topped 100y barrier, so too did RB Ben Cowins (30/111y) of Hogs. Cowins scored 2 TDs in 1st H, and K Steve Little nailed 2 FGs as Arkansas grabbed 20-10 H lead. Texas A&M came back with 10 straight pts to tie it as Woodard scored from 1y out and K Tony Franklin hit 2nd FG.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

This Week's Picks


Paul’s Picks for Oct. 3, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Favorites Cover 81, Dogs Win 46, Dogs Lose but Cover 52, Push 1.

So Favorites are 81-98-1.


Last Week’s Picks: 3-1
Overall Picks: 10-8


Call Me Crazy


Over the past three weeks I have perfected the art of correctly predicting three out of four games. Will the start of a new month push me toward perfection, or send me back to mediocrity? I have a mixed bag of favorites and underdogs, home teams and roadsters for your viewing pleasure. Call me crazy but I am staying away from anything taking place on a day other than Saturday, despite some decent success with those games.


Saturday (1:00 pm EDT): Cincinnati (-28.5) at MIAMI (Ohio)
Yes I know Cincinnati is due for a letdown. They had a great September and return to Big East play with their next game and that one is on the road at perhaps their toughest competition for the Big East title—South Florida. But, there are two factors in the Bearcats favor in taking on Miami this week. For one thing, the Redhawks are pretty bad. They are 0-4 and in their sole home game, they lost to Kentucky 42-0. Plus, this is a rivalry game as the two have tangled 113 times for the Victory Bell. Bearcat backups will get to strut their stuff early in the 2nd H.
Pick: Cincinnati -28.5

Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Penn State (-7) at ILLINOIS
As much as the Nittany Lions typically struggle against Iowa, they do well against Illinois. Penn State has won 13 of 16 contests overall versus the Illini, although they lost by a 27-20 score two years ago in a game played in Champaign. But that Illinois squad entered the contest on a three-game win streak and then upset no. 5 ranked Wisconsin a week later. This squad is not playing nearly as well and will greatly miss injured LB Martez Wilson. Penn State bounces back with a comfortable road win. Pick: Penn State -7.

Saturday (7:30 pm EDT): Texas A&M pick ‘em versus Arkansas (at Arlington, Texas)
There will be plenty of points scored in this contest, a return engagement for long-time rivals from the defunct Southwest Conference. When these two used to tangle the emphasis was almost always on the ground attacks. But now both teams showcase big, strapping QBs in Jerrod Johnson of the Aggies, who has thrown nine TD passes and rushed in 4 more six-pointers, and Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown seven TDs for the season. Arkansas is much more battle tested than A&M, which gives them the edge in this neutral field showdown.
Pick: Arkansas even.

Saturday (8:00 pm EDT): Oklahoma (-7) at MIAMI
QB Landry Jones has been impressive subbing for injured Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, but playing a night game in Miami against an angry bunch of Hurricanes is not quite the same as home games against Idaho and Tulsa. Miami was embarrassed one week ago at Virginia Tech and two years ago in Norman, but looks to this match in their continuing effort to regain national respect. The Sooners rarely play good nonconference opponents outside of Norman. They lost at Oregon in 2006 and at UCLA the season before in similar situations. Without Bradford and dynamic TE Jermaine Gresham, out for the year and already declared for the NFL draft, the Sooners will struggle. Pick: Miami +7

Taking a Two-Point Stance: The Power of the Safety


May it ever be so humble, sometimes there isn’t anything quite so powerful in a football game as the two-point safety.

Once upon a time in the land of three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, no coach who wanted to keep his job ever, ever thought about calling a pass play from his own end zone. The only exception would come late in the game when it became “nothing-to-lose.”

This ironclad strategy all changed in the 1990s thanks to an arrogant remark by coach Steve Spurrier, but more later on Spurrier and the current-day penchant for winging it from near his end-line.

Two teams—Connecticut and Penn State—have reason this season to regret bold decisions about flinging it from their end zones. Each suffered their only loss partly because of a key two-point safety that went against them.

In Week 2, UConn led most of the way at home against North Carolina but was tied 10-10, backed up to its 8-yard-line, and facing 3rd-and-22 with a little more than 1:30 to play in regulation. Jeez, run it up the middle, punt, and play for overtime! Instead, tackle Dan Ryan was called for holding in the end zone and the two points given away on the safety meant the Huskies had lost 12-10.

Last week, Penn State led Iowa 10-0 at home in the second quarter when it faced 3rd-and-13 from its 2-yard-line. Quarterback Daryll Clark was sacked, fumbled into the arms Nittany Lions guard Johnnie Troutman, but the safety turned the tide against Penn State. Iowa’s fine defense carried the rest of the game as the Hawkeyes pulled away in the fourth quarter to win 21-10.

It would be unfair to Iowa to say the safety cost Penn State the same way the two points cost UConn. But, both the Lions and Huskies should have made conservative calls because each have inexperienced offensive lines, each lost a star left tackle and center from last year’s team, and each was facing an opponent with a fine defensive front.

So how did Steve Spurrier change the thinking about passing from one’s own end zone? He made a bizarre comment when he coached Florida about passing from his end zone because it forced the other team to “defend the whole field.” Come again?! You can get your receivers 90 yards downfield to the far 5-yard-line and block the defense, which comes even harder when it smells a safety, for the 9.5 seconds it would require for even the fastest wide-outs to run that far? I understand you want to stretch the defense, but that defend-the-whole-field comment is truly bizarre.

Today, Spurrier is enjoying some success at South Carolina, but it is built on defensive strength, and I’ll bet he wishes his opponents would throw from their end zone.

Coaches, all of you, let’s go back to (almost) never throwing—especially on third down when the defense is snarling for a sack—from one’s own end zone.
--Bob Boyles