ACC Update

Clemson is in a tough spot.  With the ACC down and Florida State ahead of them in the ACC Atlantic due to a head-to-head win, the Tigers can continue to win without making much of a sound nationally. They sit at 6-1 without anyone mentioning them in the best one-loss team category.  A win tonight versus Wake Forest does not change that.  The Tigers have to remain motivated to beat the remaining teams on their conference schedule, including a trip to Duke next week, and hope that FSU stumbles in conference along the way and hope that South Carolina is still a two loss team when they meet.   Of course even if everything falls into place for Clemson and they sweep their remaining games and pass FSU, they still are probably looking at an Orange Bowl berth against the Big East champion.  As for the game tonight, I not only have problems with motivation for Clemson but I do not have that same problem with Wake.  The Deamon Deacs remember last year's game that got away from them in the second half.  They sit at 4-3 and do not have a bowl bid secured as they will only be clear-cut favorites in one game the rest of the way.  It will take a big effort to corral the Tiger's weapons but Wake has managed that before--see their upset of FSU last year--and needs to get into Clemson's head early.  After all, Clemson is 1-9 in last ten Thursday night games while Wake sits at 4-0, including a 12-7 beating of the Tigers in 2008.
The big game Saturday should be the battle of first place teams when FSU hosts Duke.  But the Seminoles are a huge favorite as the Blue Devils' collapse against a struggling Virginia Tech weighs heavier on the minds of gamblers than the recent struggles of the Noles.  Yes Duke is a long shot but, since beating Clemson, FSU could not put away a 2-5 South Florida team until late, lost to a 5-2 No Carolina State and struggled against 20-point underdog Miami (4-4).  Florida State's leading rusher Chris Thompson has also been lost for the year but the depth at that position is outstanding.  My guess here is that FSU ups its lifetime record against Duke to 18-0 with a convincing win that falls short of covering.
The other key conference game takes place in Chapel Hill, where the Tar Heels host a North Carolina State team  that has blown up this rivalry of late with five straight wins.  But those wins are usually very narrow and this one should be no different.  I like the Tar Heels but feel the spread is too high.