Weighing in on Weis

It looks like the final nails have been ordered for the Charlie Weis coffin at Notre Dame. Unfortunately for him the toughest game on the regular season schedule--yes sports fans trying to win at Stanford this year is tougher than hosting USC--remains and so unless he does to Stanford what an inspired Syracuse team did to him last season (i.e., win one for a doomed coach) the team's losing streak will continue.

In many ways Weis deserves what is coming to him. He is arrogant when winning, to the point of not making friends among administrators, alumni and press who could help him now. He is a poor game manager, as evidenced by stretches of every game where his team tanks and he is unable to make adjustments. He is a poor judge of assistant coaching talent. He is unable to develop anyone on the defensive side of the ball. His team's almost always lose the intensity battle to the opposition, which is why they have performed so poorly against seemingly over matched teams like Navy. He plays favorites. He...

That's enough. I am kicking a man while he's down. Weis did do some things right, namely recruit well, graduate players and produce a good, if inconsistent offense. And he kept the tradition of the place front and center. But, he did not win enough games. It usually boils down to that factor.

The bigger concern for Notre Dame fans is the question of his replacement. Notre Dame has done a pretty poor job of hiring football coaches since tabbing Ara Parseghian 46 years ago. Sure Dan Devine and Lou Holtz are both Hall of Famers who won titles at Notre Dame, but even their tenures ended with both sides unhappy. But hiring Gerry Faust, Bob Davie and Charlie Weis without head coaching experience? The fiasco regarding George O'Leary's resume? Hiring Ty Willingham despite his reluctance to recruit and then canning him for Urban Meyer--who took the Florida job instead? That hiring record does not inspire confidence.

The main obstacle in any search is that the candidate needs to be near perfect to succeed.
+He must have successful head coaching experience. Frank Leahy, Parseghian, Devine and Holtz all did well elsewhere before coming to South Bend and winning with the Irish.
+He must be able to handle intense pressure. Both Leahy and Parseghian left coaching as relatively young men due to the pressure to win every game.
+He must be able to recruit players from across the nation who are both talented and able to handle the classes at Notre Dame. Weis seemed to do well in this regard except his recruiting classes were lopsided in favor of the offense. Most of the other top recruiters do so at large state schools without rigid requirements.
+His players must graduate. People keep throwing out the name Chris Peterson of Boise State as a candidate, but Boise is at less than 60% graduation of the players signed in 2002 and that is despite not having kids leave early for the pros.
+He cannot embarrass the school nor allow any players to do the same. Meyer's public squabbling with USC, Tennessee and yes even Notre Dame would not be appreciated, nor his recruiting kids who have committed transgressions both on and off the field. Weis lost his backup TE before the season started because the kid went streaking and then was banished from campus by the Office of Residence Life.
+He must have the attributes of a good public speaker. Holtz was a home run in this regard while the faithful could not stand the dour Devine.
+His teams must be known for toughness. Weis failed in this regard despite coming from a Patriots organization known for its toughness.

The job is even more complicated when factoring in the Catholic angle (don't have to be one--see Rockne and Parseghian--but it helps) and the cold weather (good ol' boy Southerners could have a problem).

So who could handle the position? More importantly, who would want to? Stay tuned, but Irish fans should not be too optimistic.

Remember When

While the Michigan upset of then no. 1 Ohio State at the end of the 1969 season gets its fair share of coverage, especially in Ann Arbor, the game the following year marked the first time that the two programs had not only elevated themselves above the rest of the Big Ten but were both playing for a possible national championship. Both teams entered the contest with perfect records and with three other national powers also sporting undefeated records at the time--Texas, Notre Dame and Nebraska--the Ohio State-Michigan loser would not only lose a perfect record, conference title and bowl game appearance (only one Big Ten team was allowed to go bowling back in that era), but any consideration for a national title.

As recapped in The USA Today Encyclopedia of College Football:

OHIO STATE 20 Michigan 9: Revenge was on mind of sr-dominated Ohio State (9-0), looking to turn tables on Michigan (9-1) which in 1969 inflicted most painful defeat in Buckeye history. After exchange of FGs, odd facemask PEN during line blocking ruined 71y Michigan punt by E-P Paul Staroba late in 2nd Q. Do-over resulted in good field position that allowed Buckeyes to grab 10-3 H edge as QB Rex Kern (8-12/87y, TD, INT) fired 26y TD pass to E Bruce Jankowski. But, Kern bungled scoring chance late in 2nd Q when he expelled K Fred Schram (2 FGs) from Bucks huddle, thus overriding coach Woody Hayes. Kern threw short pass to FB John Brockington, and he was tackled inbounds to end H. This unnoticed illegality made Michigan coach Bo Schembechler livid: "There is no way you can go into the huddle and come out without running a play!" UM E Staroba caught 3rd Q TD pass of 13y from QB Don Moorhead (12-26/118y, TD) and Wolverines moved to within 10-9. But, Buckeyes DB Tim Anderson knifed through to block Michigan K Dana Coin's tying kick. Ohio State's run game, which enjoyed astounding 242y to 37y advantage, dominated 4th Q as HB Leo Hayden (28/117y, TD) topped Schram's 2nd FG with 4y TD run. Now holding impressive 27-1 record over last 3 years, Buckeyes looked to capture their 2nd national title in 3 years for remarkable recruiting class of 1966 when they were to meet Stanford in Rose Bowl.

After Southern Californian beat Notre Dame, the regular season ended with Texas, Ohio State and Nebraska undefeated and ranked 1, 2 and 3 respectively. With Nebraska a clear third due to a tie with USC in September, the path to a title was clear for Ohio State. If Notre Dame beats Texas in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State wins the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes would be champions. The Irish came through with a 24-11 victory over Texas to prevent the Longhorns from winning two straight AP titles (they already won the UPI crown, which was still decided before the bowl games). But in one of the most stunning upsets in bowl game history, Stanford, led by Heisman-winning QB Jim Plunkett, beat the Buckeyes 27-17. Nebraska would go on to top LSU in the Orange Bowl 17-12 to win their first-ever AP national championship.

College Football Performance Formula

2009 College Football Performance Formula
November 18

1. Texas 1.8619
2. TCU 1.8016
3. Alabama 1.7940
4. Florida 1.7411
5. Boise State 1.6952
6. Cincinnati 1.6616
7. Ohio State 1.5900
8. Pittsburgh 1.5561
9. Louisiana State 1.5530
10. Oregon 1.5494
11. Georgia Tech 1.5338
12. Virginia Tech 1.5213
13. Penn State 1.5027
14. Iowa 1.4672
15. Oklahoma State 1.4594
16. Clemson 1.4197
17. Wisconsin 1.4099
18. BYU 1.3645
19. Nebraska 1.3537
20. Utah 1.3475
21. Houston 1.343889
22. Miami 1.343870
23. Rutgers 1.3365
24. Central Michigan 1.3130
25. Oregon State 1.3026
26. Stanford 1.3021
27. USC 1.3006
28. Arkansas 1.3004
29. Navy 1.2909
30. West Virginia 1.2836
31. Arizona 1.2776
32. Mississippi 1.2671
33. Temple 1.2646
34. Boston College 1.2567
35. California 1.2554
36. Nevada 1.2426
37. North Carolina 1.2342
38. Auburn 1.2317
39. Notre Dame 1.2238
40. Air Force 1.2097

The Performance Formula compiles a grade for each of college football's 120 FBS teams based on three stat categories: winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and scoring margin. Both winning percentage factors are adjusted down to account for wins over FCS schools, and scoring margins are diminished to avoid stat-skewing by a win or loss margin greater than 40 points. A perfectly average team will score 1.0000, while eventual national champions generally score in excess of 1.7500.

Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-5, Season: 20-25

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 31 (57.4%), failed to cover 23, 1 Push, 1 Even
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 234 (48.5%), failed to cover 248

Fallen to "Swami" Status

Chris "Boomer" Berman of ESPN, known as "The Swami" when picking NFL games, hasn't a serious bone in his handicapping body. A couple of weeks ago when the Buccaneers and Patriots went to London to play he picked the Patriots to win 1776 to 1588. Those would be the years of the American Revolution (Patriots) and the Defeat of the Spanish Armada (Bucs). Get it? Hey, he won the pick.

As far as we know, however, "The Swami" has never hit a break-even season in the 30 or so years Berman has played Swami.

And now, I too have fallen to a similar status after last week's 1-5 disaster. I still say the Houston Cougars as a small favorite over Central Florida and the Rice Owls as a favorite over anybody other than Western Kentucky were two of the strangest lines out of Vegas ever. Too bad I had no clue. It is games like those that prompt some wise-guys to wonder about things being on the up-and-up.

I'm a desperate picker. The reader might consider pulling a George Costanza and go completely against every natural instinct in believing my picks. But here goes.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Thursday:

Colorado +16 at OKLAHOMA STATE

"Mr. Thursday" returns with his lifetime 68-16 record (80.95%). Oklahoma State, so sexy after its early season win over Georgia but almost dismissed after losing to Houston, continues on a path to a New Years Day bowl. Colorado has pretty slipped off the face of the map, and coach Dan Hawkins likely has his bags packed. I don't usually go for spreads larger than 12 points, but I really like the Cowpokes at home. Pick: Oklahoma State -16

Saturday:

Purdue (-3.5) at INDIANA

No team in America has had the bad luck the Hoosiers have suffered. They stand at 4-7 but absolutely should have beaten Michigan and Northwestern and easily might have beaten Iowa and Penn State—Indiana had good leads into the second half each time. Purdue, also 4-7, is up and down, looking good one week (see Oregon, Ohio State and Illinois) and awful the next (see Northern Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). I feel Indiana has more to play for, has more pride, and is at home in a rivalry game. Pick: Indiana +3.5

Louisiana State (+3.5) at MISSISSIPPI

Disappointing Mississippi had their big effort last week in crushing Tennessee. The LSU Tigers at 8-2 have beaten everybody but Florida and Alabama—the polls' top two teams in the country—and have a defense faster than anything Ole Miss has pretty well seen so far. It ought to be close and entertaining, but why is LSU an underdog? I believe this is the week's biggest mismatch in Jeff Sagarin's USA TODAY ranking system. Pick: LSU +3.5

Air Force (+10) at BYU

Underrated Air Force can secure a good bowl game with a win over BYU, a team nipping at a good ranking all year. The Falcons may not win this one, and I usually like underdogs that I feel can win. More than anything, I'm going with a hunch here. Hey, logic hasn't worked out that well for me this year. Pick: Air Force +10

Paul's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009:

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 22-18

There's No Crying in Football

No, I am not directing this to New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. But once again I have read an editorial by a sportswriter, this time ESPN's Ivan Maisel, that is a grievance about the 2009 season. Maisel is bored by the match-ups this weekend—and yes it is a slow weekend—as he has by the whole season. Of course he neglects to mention that the NFL lineup for the week includes eight games with spreads larger than a TD. He complains that the biggest college game this weekend is Arizona-Oregon, but fails to notice that the biggest pro game of the weekend is Denver-San Diego (the pro equivalent of…Arizona-Oregon). He even throws the Heisman race into the picture as if a fan cannot enjoy the sport without a discussion of the race for a popularity trophy.

So, Ivan, quit your job if you do understand that any college football game could turn out to be a quality, exciting contest. The drama unfolding throughout the country on any Saturday is unpredictable and not chained to the determination of a national champion. And crying over the mediocrity of some of the bigger programs is truly sad coming from a sportswriter who should know that having USC win the Pac 10 every year is actually boring and that Notre Dame does not have any more of a claim to a top 10 ranking than TCU.

But that's enough ranting for now. Let's get on with the picks.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Friday:

Akron (+11) at BOWLING GREEN

I must be 0-20 the past few year picking MAC games so go along with me here at your own peril. I am taking Bowling Green in honor of star WR Freddie Barnes, who will catch 11 passes tomorrow night, one for each pt the Falcons are favored by. Plus the Falcons are due to win big at home, having lost three straight (but to Boise State, Ohio and Central Michigan). Pick: Bowling Green -11

Saturday:

Wisconsin (-7) at NORTHWESTERN
With the focus of attention in Big 10 country on the Big Three this season of Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State, it may be surprising to some that Wisconsin is 8-2 and Northwestern stands at 7-4. Both teams are playing well of late and the Wildcats have won the past two series games played in Evanston. There should be plenty of pts scored in this game as Northwestern will struggle to stop John Clay and the powerful Badgers rush game, while Wisconsin has allowed 28, 31 and 28 pts in their three Big Ten road games. Pick: Northwestern +7

Rutgers (-8) at SYRACUSE
The Syracuse program is tired. New coach Doug Marrone worked them hard this summer in an effort to change the culture, which also chased away some players. The team was fired up for early season contests against Big Ten teams, even managing an upset of Northwestern. But by mid-season the wheels fell off as the team's best player on O, WR Mike Williams, quit amid rumors of a failed drug test, and the best D player, DT Arthur Jones, was lost for the season with a knee injury. They are 0-5 in the Big East, having lost their best chance for a win by 1 pt to Louisville last week. Rutgers, on the other hand, heads to the Carrier Dome riding a three-game win streak. They are 3-0 on the road too, with three covers. They have won four straight on the series by an average score of 36-12 and should not be looking ahead to anything as they have Louisville on the schedule for Thanksgiving weekend. Pick: Rutgers -8

Kansas (+27.5) at TEXAS
There are a lot of hurt feelings in Lawrence as the Kansas team not only continues to lose—five straight and counting—but have their sights on the head of coach Mark Mangino being presented to them on a plate. The Jayhawks are about as far removed from their amazing 2007 season as possible. While the Longhorns have actually been covering with more ease on the road this season, they should have no problem romping here. With a win, Longhorns QB Colt McCoy will become the winningest QB in NCAA history. Get your erasers ready NCAA. Pick: Texas -27.5

SEC Mess

With Florida and Alabama already locked into their SEC Title game spots, the SEC desperately needs another team to garner media attention. Wait, they have one in that carnival sideshow of a program...Tennessee! The latest "news" is that frosh DB Nyshier Oliver was caught shoplifting an expensive polo shirt of all things from a Knoxville mall in early November. That is normally not too big of a deal as Oliver is not the first teen to swipe a shirt. But, Oliver was caught four days before coach Lane Kiffen bragged about the lack of arrests in the program, although there is some doubt as too the coach's knowledge of the incident (what is worse?). And that speech was a few days before three of Oliver's teammates attempted to rob a parked car outside a convenience store. All four of the players in question, two of whom have been thrown out of school, are members of Kiffin's first recruiting class.

These criminal misdoings have been just the latest chapter for a program that is being defined by the outrageous statements tossed out by a coach with a desperate need to get his name in the paper. Getting attention for a challenge to Florida's supremacy in the SEC East is a bit different from talking to the press about player arrests. Are these isolated incidents, or is Kiffin doing anything to win and stumbling a few times in doing so?

And Kiffin is fully aware that all of the bluster and recruiting coups and player screw ups is secondary to the product on the field. The Volunteers returned some talented players, including one of the best defenders in the country in S Eric Berry (pictured). The defense, which has played well this year until the Mississippi game, was ranked in the top five in the country last year. RB Montario Hardesty and QB Jonathan Crompton, who have paced the offense, are seniors. Going 5-5 with a schedule that featured both road games with Florida, Alabama and Mississippi and an easy non-conference schedule that consisted of home games against four teams with a combined 14-26 record is just okay. Sweeping the remaining games to go 8-5 will be better, certainly, but the Vols may have to rebuild next year after losing a great many key players after this season. That effort got tougher with the losses to the freshmen class.

Where does Tennessee go from here? They will remain aggressive in the pursuit of football talent. They say that they will be tough on their kids when the players mess up. We will see. We also know that Kiffin better start winning soon or the bluster and criminal activity will swallow up his efforts.

Big East Overview

The Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0, 9-1) have a week off. Which is a good thing as their two toughest opponents remain on a schedule that is very back heavy. The first ten games of the schedule featured some solid opponents (Navy, the September version of North Carolina State, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida and Notre Dame) and some weaklings (Youngstown State, Buffalo, Louisville and Syracuse), but no one too hard to handle. That was a good thing as QB Bill Stull was able to develop into a decent QB while quieting his detractors and the D, under new DC Phil Bennett, was able to improve from a September during which they allowed 500y to Buffalo and 530y to North Carolina State. Neither the Bulls nor the Wolfpack are at .500 this year, so months of improvement were needed on the D side before being able to take on the O talent sent on to the field by coaches of Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The D-line delivered versus the Irish and will need to lead the way in the team's remaining two Big East clashes.

The Panthers have also been fortunate to play from behind all season, despite being undefeated in conference play. That is a great position to be in as the pressure has all been on the Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0, 10-0). Cincinnati also has a week off, which is also fortunate as the entire team needs to exhale after beating Connecticut and West Virginia by a combined five pts. The closest final score in the previous eight wins for Cincy was eight (28-20 over Fresno State), so the Bearcats are clearly looking for a return to the heady play of the season's first two months as they close out this historic season with games against Illinois and Pittsburgh.

Rutgers (2-2, 7-2) meanwhile is trying desperately to continue their strong play of late as a double digit win total and meaningful bowl game are within the team's grasp. Big East bottom feeders Syracuse and Connecticut are next up for the Scarlet Knights, but both games are on the road and Rutgers, which has played well this season when under the radar, cannot suddenly spit the bit with a potential for better things hanging over their heads. They also cannot be caught looking ahead to West Virginia, to be played December 5, even though the Mountaineers' 14-game series win streak is in jeopardy this season with the two programs somewhat even.

ACC Overview

Is it me or has the ACC become somewhat predictable? After a crazy 2008 season, when an unranked ACC team beat a ranked conference team a whopping 14 times, and then turbulent start to this season with Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech and then Georgia Tech again occupying the spot as ACC's best team on a weekly basis and up-and-down performances by everyone else, the conference has settled down a bit.

Georgia Tech (7-1, 10-1) has won eight straight games and the talent-packed Coastal Division as coach Paul Johnson's ambitious plan of what could be accomplished at the program once the players fully learned his schemes has become a reality. The Yellow Jackets have averaged 39 pts per game in that stretch, despite it consisting of games against six ACC teams and 2 members of the SEC. With upcoming games against Georgia, Clemson most likely in the ACC title game and then a possible BCS game opponent, the presence of WR Demaryius Thomas (39/950y, 6 TDs) may be most important to Tech's chances of remaining in the nation's top 10. With QB Josh Nesbitt (218/847y, 16 TDs) and back Jonathan Dwyer (183/1203y, 11 TDs) pacing the rush attack, Thomas's play gives the O a dimension that is truly frightening. Thomas, who will be the rare 1,000y receiver produced by an option attack, is so physical at 6'3, 228 lbs that a defense already worried about the run cannot fully guard him with one DB. Seven times this season he has hooked up with Nesbitt on pass plays of more than 50y as the big play capability of the offense now stems from both passes and pitches (if not Nesbitt keepers).

Clemson (5-2, 7-3) must win this Saturday against Virginia, or hope Boston College loses to either North Carolina or Maryland, to clinch the Atlantic Division. Assuming that happens, the Tigers will be very confident against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game due to their play in a narrow 30-27 loss to Tech in Atlanta early in the season. Clemson trailed 24-0 in that game before rallying behind a dominant 2nd H performance in the trenches. Add to that mix the play of exhilarating RB C. J. Spiller, who has the rare ability to score a TD every time he returns a kick, takes a hand-off or receives a pass, and continued development of QB Kyle Parker, and the Tigers should give the Yellow Jackets all they can handle on December 5th in Tampa.