Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-5, Season: 20-25

All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 31 (57.4%), failed to cover 23, 1 Push, 1 Even
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 234 (48.5%), failed to cover 248

Fallen to "Swami" Status

Chris "Boomer" Berman of ESPN, known as "The Swami" when picking NFL games, hasn't a serious bone in his handicapping body. A couple of weeks ago when the Buccaneers and Patriots went to London to play he picked the Patriots to win 1776 to 1588. Those would be the years of the American Revolution (Patriots) and the Defeat of the Spanish Armada (Bucs). Get it? Hey, he won the pick.

As far as we know, however, "The Swami" has never hit a break-even season in the 30 or so years Berman has played Swami.

And now, I too have fallen to a similar status after last week's 1-5 disaster. I still say the Houston Cougars as a small favorite over Central Florida and the Rice Owls as a favorite over anybody other than Western Kentucky were two of the strangest lines out of Vegas ever. Too bad I had no clue. It is games like those that prompt some wise-guys to wonder about things being on the up-and-up.

I'm a desperate picker. The reader might consider pulling a George Costanza and go completely against every natural instinct in believing my picks. But here goes.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Thursday:

Colorado +16 at OKLAHOMA STATE

"Mr. Thursday" returns with his lifetime 68-16 record (80.95%). Oklahoma State, so sexy after its early season win over Georgia but almost dismissed after losing to Houston, continues on a path to a New Years Day bowl. Colorado has pretty slipped off the face of the map, and coach Dan Hawkins likely has his bags packed. I don't usually go for spreads larger than 12 points, but I really like the Cowpokes at home. Pick: Oklahoma State -16

Saturday:

Purdue (-3.5) at INDIANA

No team in America has had the bad luck the Hoosiers have suffered. They stand at 4-7 but absolutely should have beaten Michigan and Northwestern and easily might have beaten Iowa and Penn State—Indiana had good leads into the second half each time. Purdue, also 4-7, is up and down, looking good one week (see Oregon, Ohio State and Illinois) and awful the next (see Northern Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin). I feel Indiana has more to play for, has more pride, and is at home in a rivalry game. Pick: Indiana +3.5

Louisiana State (+3.5) at MISSISSIPPI

Disappointing Mississippi had their big effort last week in crushing Tennessee. The LSU Tigers at 8-2 have beaten everybody but Florida and Alabama—the polls' top two teams in the country—and have a defense faster than anything Ole Miss has pretty well seen so far. It ought to be close and entertaining, but why is LSU an underdog? I believe this is the week's biggest mismatch in Jeff Sagarin's USA TODAY ranking system. Pick: LSU +3.5

Air Force (+10) at BYU

Underrated Air Force can secure a good bowl game with a win over BYU, a team nipping at a good ranking all year. The Falcons may not win this one, and I usually like underdogs that I feel can win. More than anything, I'm going with a hunch here. Hey, logic hasn't worked out that well for me this year. Pick: Air Force +10

Paul's Picks for Nov. 21, 2009:

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 22-18

There's No Crying in Football

No, I am not directing this to New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. But once again I have read an editorial by a sportswriter, this time ESPN's Ivan Maisel, that is a grievance about the 2009 season. Maisel is bored by the match-ups this weekend—and yes it is a slow weekend—as he has by the whole season. Of course he neglects to mention that the NFL lineup for the week includes eight games with spreads larger than a TD. He complains that the biggest college game this weekend is Arizona-Oregon, but fails to notice that the biggest pro game of the weekend is Denver-San Diego (the pro equivalent of…Arizona-Oregon). He even throws the Heisman race into the picture as if a fan cannot enjoy the sport without a discussion of the race for a popularity trophy.

So, Ivan, quit your job if you do understand that any college football game could turn out to be a quality, exciting contest. The drama unfolding throughout the country on any Saturday is unpredictable and not chained to the determination of a national champion. And crying over the mediocrity of some of the bigger programs is truly sad coming from a sportswriter who should know that having USC win the Pac 10 every year is actually boring and that Notre Dame does not have any more of a claim to a top 10 ranking than TCU.

But that's enough ranting for now. Let's get on with the picks.

Here are my picks for the week of November 21:

Friday:

Akron (+11) at BOWLING GREEN

I must be 0-20 the past few year picking MAC games so go along with me here at your own peril. I am taking Bowling Green in honor of star WR Freddie Barnes, who will catch 11 passes tomorrow night, one for each pt the Falcons are favored by. Plus the Falcons are due to win big at home, having lost three straight (but to Boise State, Ohio and Central Michigan). Pick: Bowling Green -11

Saturday:

Wisconsin (-7) at NORTHWESTERN
With the focus of attention in Big 10 country on the Big Three this season of Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State, it may be surprising to some that Wisconsin is 8-2 and Northwestern stands at 7-4. Both teams are playing well of late and the Wildcats have won the past two series games played in Evanston. There should be plenty of pts scored in this game as Northwestern will struggle to stop John Clay and the powerful Badgers rush game, while Wisconsin has allowed 28, 31 and 28 pts in their three Big Ten road games. Pick: Northwestern +7

Rutgers (-8) at SYRACUSE
The Syracuse program is tired. New coach Doug Marrone worked them hard this summer in an effort to change the culture, which also chased away some players. The team was fired up for early season contests against Big Ten teams, even managing an upset of Northwestern. But by mid-season the wheels fell off as the team's best player on O, WR Mike Williams, quit amid rumors of a failed drug test, and the best D player, DT Arthur Jones, was lost for the season with a knee injury. They are 0-5 in the Big East, having lost their best chance for a win by 1 pt to Louisville last week. Rutgers, on the other hand, heads to the Carrier Dome riding a three-game win streak. They are 3-0 on the road too, with three covers. They have won four straight on the series by an average score of 36-12 and should not be looking ahead to anything as they have Louisville on the schedule for Thanksgiving weekend. Pick: Rutgers -8

Kansas (+27.5) at TEXAS
There are a lot of hurt feelings in Lawrence as the Kansas team not only continues to lose—five straight and counting—but have their sights on the head of coach Mark Mangino being presented to them on a plate. The Jayhawks are about as far removed from their amazing 2007 season as possible. While the Longhorns have actually been covering with more ease on the road this season, they should have no problem romping here. With a win, Longhorns QB Colt McCoy will become the winningest QB in NCAA history. Get your erasers ready NCAA. Pick: Texas -27.5