With the smoke cleared from the recent conference expansion frenzy, it is time to evaluate some of the moves that did take place. The Pac 10 expanded by two, pulling in Colorado and Utah from the Big 12 and Mountain West conferences respectively.
Sportswriters are raving about the aggressiveness of the conference in landing these two programs and almost landing the package of four programs from the state of Texas, led by the University of Texas. The focus appears to be on television revenue, with the Pac 10 getting a boost from both the ability to add a playoff game and its expansion into the Salt Lake City and Denver markets. And bully for the conference, if that is all that being in a conference is all about.
But my focus as a blogger and fan of college football is on the product on the field, and I do not see an improvement in that regard. I liked that the Pac 10 members each played the other during the regular season. But that's gone. I liked that the Pac 10 did not have a championship game. But that's gone. I also liked that the conference featured any given team--well except for Washington State--having a shot against any other. It made for some compelling late night viewing last year. And while that level of competition is not gone, it is muddled.
To be honest, I do not know if the last two programs to join the ranks of the Pac 10 have been fully integrated yet. And Arizona State and Arizona have been in the conference for more than 30 years. This should help them in that the two Arizona schools are more similar to the newcomers that the others and may be able to develop rivalries with them that they could not with the California and Pacific Northwest schools. Of course, the two Arizona schools now have two more competitors for the second-tier California prospects, but recruiting is a job for the aggressive and it will be up to every Pac 10 school to fight off Utah and Colorado.
The other interesting question from all of this is to predict how good Utah, and Colorado, will be once they join the conference. With the Buffs it will come down to coaching as their current head man, Dan Hawkins, is on his last legs. This is his fifth year in Boulder and unless he pulls off a miraculous season, some new blood with better Pac 10 credentials will be on board for 2011. Colorado does play at Cal in September in what could be a sign of things to come. As for Utah, they certainly have a nice track record against BCS competition in recent years. They have an excellent program, with top-notch facilities, coaching, support and talent. They should do very well once they make the move, although the Utes do have one major adjustment to make. They will have to be able to handle a much tougher schedule that will no longer feature the number of weak opponents they currently face (through no fault of their own). Last year's squad, which never cracked the top 15, nonetheless was favored by 13 or more seven times. Having that many weaker opponents--and you must give them credit for getting business done against those squads--makes it not only easy to reach double digit wins on an annual basis, but also allows them to get up for the bigger games on the schedule without worry about dropping games in between. A similarly skilled Oregon State, by comparison, was favored by 13 or more only three times and one of those occasions was against a Washington team that had beaten USC. Utah will have a good test run this season once late October arrives as they play on the road at Air Force, TCU at home and on the road at Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. They then play at an improved San Diego State before tussling with rival BYU at home. That five-game slate should be a fine indicator of what to expect from the Utes in the Pac 10 for 2011.
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