Monday, November 12, 2012

BCS Blues

In the current BCS standings we have another school atop the human polls that does not lead the computers and BCS in Oregon.  The Ducks are rightfully being punished by the machines for playing outside BCS conferences in September, although Arkansas State and Fresno State are fine clubs.  They also have had an unbalanced conference schedule as five of their seven conference wins have come against Pac-12 schools sporting losing conference records.  And so we will know a lot more about the Ducks in December after they have played Stanford, Oregon State and, should they get there, the conference title game.  Until then we can just marvel at their team speed while trying to remember the last time a national champion surrendered 51 points in a regular season game.
Kansas State is in the enviable position as the top-ranked team in the BCS standings.  The longer the season goes, however, the worse their schedule looks as not one of their out-of-conference opponents has a winning record and many of the Big 12 opponents they have beaten are tanking (West Virginia) or slowly drifting toward ho-hum status (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State).  The more we look at the Cats' body of work the more we grow bored.  Fortunately Texas woke up from its mid-season slumber and provides a nice final game opponent--assuming they beat TCU on Thanksgiving.
Notre Dame sits in first place in the computer rankings but third in the overall BCS rankings thanks to a weaker showing in the human polls.  The computers are attracted to an Irish schedule that eschews non BCS teams except for major independents while not punishing ND for too many close wins.  But, and this is the key, the voters have too many stumbling blocks to overcome when voting for Notre Dame.  The Irish do not have any conference affiliation, of course, and therefore do not get fellow conference coaches/writers voting them up.  The Irish were not over-ranked in preseason--for a change--and that costs them now as they have had to play catch-up.  Finally the Irish are not liked by some for the NBC contract, for being perceived as holier-than-thou and, well, for being able to do it the right way when others cannot--and some resent them enough to under-vote them.  By not beating Boston College by 50 points the Irish have allowed doubters and haters to label them unworthy.
Here is the biggest problem facing the big three undefeated teams.  Not one of them play a team from the SEC.  So the myth of SEC superiority--and they do occupy BCS slots four through nine--remains true despite less-than-spectacular results.  After all, how could Oregon, KSU and ND survive playing the SEC?  Please.  Georgia has wins against Buffalo, Missouri, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi and Auburn and a blowout loss to South Carolina.  They still play Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  I am fairly certain that any of the big three undefeated teams would do just as well, if not better, than Georgia against that schedule.  But, of course, if any of the three teams lose one of their remaining games they will fall behind the Bulldogs--only because Georgia plays in the SEC.  I can do this will other SEC teams too.  And it is ridiculous.
It will take a few years for the SEC boost to go away and it will only happen if other schools win national titles and win head-to-head games.  That, of course, is difficult as the SEC rarely schedules any team with a chance to beat them.  So it will be up to bowl opponents this year and in the near future to prove that the SEC is not far superior to everyone else.

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