Saturday, November 10, 2012

Today's Picks

From this point on I will first pick the games involving the top teams before choosing a few others that stand out.
Texas A&M +13.5 at Bama: Making Zach Mettenberger look good last week does not bode well for a Tide defense living off past glory.  Johnny Manziel will give that D its toughest test of the season, while the A&M DE Damontre Moore will make Bama QB A.J. McCarron cry in a different way this week by adding to his NCAA-leading (in a 3-way tie) 11.5 sack total.
Cal +28.5 hosting Oregon: When focusing on remaining schedules for BCS contenders year-in-and-year-out the pundits over anaylize the obvious match-ups against opponents with good records and under analyze games agaisnt game lesser lights.  Sitting at 3-7 overall and 2-5 in conference the Cal Bears stink.  But they were not very good two years ago when they lost to then no. 1 Oregon 15-13 in a game in which they missed a chippy FG.  The Bears are 3-1 versus Oregon at home the past few years and may be playing for coach Jeff Tedford's job.  And for those who love trap games the Ducks played USC last week and Stanford and Oregon State the next two weeks.  Oregon wins, but does not cover.
TCU +7 hosting KSU: The Horned Frogs make it three straight underdog picks for me this week and they are obviously the one with the best chance of winning outright.  TCU coach Gary Patterson pisses off the rest of his fellow KSU alumni by upsetting the Wildcats by forcing KSU to pass.  Yeah you heard me.  They hope to make the Heisman favorite QB beat them through the air.  But as great a college player Collin Klein is, he is not 100% after last week's concussion and is not a great passer.  In his last two road games against teams that try to play D--and yes I am calling you out West Virginia--Klein threw for 187y and 0 TDs against ISU and 149y with 0 passing TDs against OU.  Yes he managed both of those wins brilliantly but the Cats O is not built on throwing the ball and lot.  Against TCU's top-ranked rush defense they may have to do something they are not comfortable.
Notre Dame -19 at BC: Okay wait a second.  The only team from the BCS top four that I picked to cover was my Irish.  But they will romp tonight over an out-manned but game Eagles squad.
Louisville -1.5 at Syracuse: Look, Louisville is certainly vulnerable as they are not used to being undefeated in November.   But the spread is ridiculous.
I also like Northwestern +10, Clemson -31, Auburn +15, Penn State +8, ASU +11, Washington +1, New Mexico +2, UCLA -15, TT -25.5, Louisiana-Lafayette +27.

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