Today's Pick

Predicting the outcome of tonight's Poinsettia Bowl via numbers is a testimony to just how difficult that can be.
For one thing, BYU generally owns San Diego State from their days together in both the WAC and MWC.  The Cougars are 27-5 in their last 32 meetings versus their former "rivals" and have done so by an average margin of 17.  Advantage BYU.
But the game is being played in San Diego at Qualcomm Stadium, where the Aztecs play, and San Diego State went 6-1 at home this year.  Advantage San Diego State.
But San Diego is an easy trip from Salt Lake City and there are a large number of BYU fans in the San Diego.  Plus the BYU program has a history of playing in San Diego during bowl season from their seemingly annual trip to the Holiday Bowl a generation ago.  Weaken that previous SD State advantage.
But, this edition of BYU struggles against good competition, winning only five games against teams with eventual winning records the past three seasons.  Advantage SD State.
Then again, the Cougars under coach Bronco Mendenhall know how to play in the postseason, winning five of their past six bowl games.  Advantage BYU.
Now the most important numbers may be that San Diego State is 15th in the nation in rushing at 229y per game, with soph back Adam Muema rushing for 1,355y, while BYU is second in rush D (third in overall D) allowing only 84y per.  The team that wins this battle wins the game--or the team that adjusts better (eg the Aztecs throw the ball) wins the game.
I was leaning BYU -3.5 for most of the week BUT have switched last second to San Diego State (the lure of that half point) as I believe they are motivated to break a five-game losing streak, will run just enough at key times in the game and will get better QB play from new starter Adam Dingwell than BYU will get from banged up Riley Nelson.  Take the 3.5 in a game that will go well under the 48 o/u.