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Paul’s Picks for Sept. 12, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Favorites covered 19 games, failed to cover 22 games

Last week: 1-5

Now That’s an Omen

While poking around at lunchtime, I found a left over pork chop (from earlier in the week, not earlier in the summer) in the refrigerator that I had forgotten about. This must be my lucky day! And so with pig in belly, I present the four picks that I will sweep in quest of a .500 record.

Saturday (Noon EDT): Fresno State (+8.5) at WISCONSIN
The Bulldogs failed to pull off the upset in this match-up at home last season, but proved to be solid away from Fresno last season with road victories over Rutgers and UCLA. Wisconsin has gone from 12 wins in coach Bret Bielema’s debut season of 2006, to 9 in 2007, to 7 last year. While we are not predicting a complete collapse, we do worry about the talent level in Madison the further we are removed from the era of coach Barry Alvarez. PICK: Fresno State +8.5

Saturday (Noon EDT): Pittsburgh (-10.5) at BUFFALO
Another rematch from 2008, these teams battled for four quarters in a game at Pittsburgh that the Panthers won 27-16 thanks to 10 straight points in the final quarter. This game should go down to the wire again as the experienced Bulls defense should keep the game close. One concern is the lack of a tall corner to go up against 6’5 wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin of the Panthers. PICK: Buffalo +10.5

Saturday (1:30pm EDT): Marshall (+19) at VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies will find it much easier to get their offense in gear against Marshall after going up against the Alabama defense. Look for bushels of rushing yards for the home team. The Thundering Herd have struggled against BCS conference teams the last few years and this game should be no different. PICK: Virginia Tech -19

Saturday (3:30pm EDT): Texas Christian (-11) at VIRGINIA
A bad September will get even worse for Al Groh’s charges as TCU pays a visit. With Virginia featuring a lot of new faces—having lost their leading rusher, top five receivers and top four tacklers from last season—and the Horned Frogs hungry for wins over BCS conference opponents, this one could get ugly. Losing to William & Mary did nothing for Virginia’s confidence. PICK: TCU-11