Long Road to Respectability

Paul’s Picks for Sept. 19, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Last week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 26
Season ATS: Favorites covered 39, failed to cover 48

Last week’s picks: 3-1
Overall: 4-6

Well I have a lucky pork chop to thank for turning my season around. Hopefully the lousy turkey sandwich I had today will not doom me to an equally lousy weekend.

Friday Night Fever

I cannot back up any claims of Friday night success with numbers. I did hit Tulsa week one, but forgot to tell you all about it. So, here goes with the first of, I hope, many correct predicitons for Friday night action.

Friday (9:00pm EDT): Boise State (-7) at FRESNO STATE
While I have enjoyed watching Pat Hill's Fresno State Bulldogs take on any BCS power willing to schedule them over the years, I cannot help but notice their in conference stumbles over the years. In fact, Hill has never won an outright WAC title. The main reason for that has been the presence of Boise State, victors in the series match-up in seven of eight seasons. That trend continues as the Broncos are loaded and have been terrific in two games, scoring 67 points so far this season while surrending only 8. Pick: Boise State -7.

Saturday (12:00pm EDT): Duke (+22) at KANSAS
Did you happen to see the stat sheet for Duke after their road win over Army. It was not pretty. So ride Jayhawks QB Todd Reesing, who should put up big numbers versus the Blue Devils. And he will not give up two pick-6 INTs. Pick: Kansas -22

Saturday (3:30pm EDT): Utah (+4) at OREGON
One of the many reasons why it is difficult to correctly predict games is the lack of visual information. How can I truly gauge the play of Hawaii, let's say, without seeing one of their games? Well, I have seen enough of Oregon to know that they are a middling Pac 10 team at best. Is Utah a top 10 team this year? Probably not, but they are good enough to hang with the Ducks. Pick: Utah +4

Saturday (7:00 EDT): Mississippi State (+9) at VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt's recipe for moderate SEC success is to play good defense and hope to catch a break or two. That style of play did produce a surprising 4-4 conference record in 2008, but the team's margin of victory in those 4 wins was slightly more than 5 pts. This spread is almost twice that and while the Bulldogs are clearly rebuilding under new coach Dan Mullen they can move the chains behind running back Anthony Dixon. Pick: Mississippi State +9