College Football Performance Formula

2009 College Football Performance Formula
End of Regular Season: December 11

For most of the last month, TCU--now headed to the Fiesta Bowl--has held the no. 2 spot in our College Football Performance Formula, but when Alabama (previous no. 3 in the Formula) beat an undefeated team in Florida, the Crimson Tide jumped into the second spot in the Formula.

Texas, Alabama's opponent in the BCS Title Game, holds on to the Formula's top spot after its Big 12 title win over Nebraska. So, according to the College Football Performance Formula, the BCS got the match-up right.

If one goes strictly on the top 10 teams deserving slots in the five BCS bowls, then Virginia Tech at no. 9 and Penn State at no. 10 clearly were passed over. However, Georgia Tech (no. 12) won an automatic bid on the field by taking the Atlantic Coast Conference title from Clemson, while Iowa (no. 11) was tapped ahead of Penn State as the Big Ten's second BCS representative, primarily because of a head-to-head victory.

It is remarkable that the top eight teams will match up in BCS bowl games exactly as they performed in the formula.

Top 20 FBS schools in Performance Formula after games of December 5:

1. Texas 1.8187
2. Alabama 1.7894
3. TCU 1.7541
4. Boise State 1.7271
5. Florida 1.6785
6. Cincinnati 1.6678
7. Oregon 1.5781
8. Ohio State 1.5692
9. Virginia Tech 1.5300
10. Penn State 1.5113
11. Iowa 1.4727
12. Georgia Tech 1.4565
13. Louisiana State 1.4478
14. Pittsburgh 1.4280
15. Brigham Young 1.4232
16. Miami (Florida) 1.4025
17. Wisconsin 1.3783
18. Nebraska 1.3648
19. West Virginia 1.3644
20. Oklahoma State 1.3579