Weekly Picks

Bob's Picks for Dec. 5, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 1-4, Season: 22-32

All 2009 Games

Last Week ATS: Favorites covered 17 (36.96%), failed to cover 29, 2 Pushes
Season ATS: Favorites covered 277 (47.84%), failed to cover 302

Farewell to Foge

In this season of coaches fading into oblivion, the college football world lost another coach yesterday. Serafino "Foge" Fazio died at 71 after a long bout with leukemia. It received microscopic attention in a modern sports world that cares more about what Tiger Woods did or didn't say, what he did or didn't do.

Foge Fazio inherited the coaching reins from Jackie Sherrill of the Pittsburgh Panthers in 1982, which as it happens, was the first of nine years I would live in Pittsburgh, America's most underrated great city. The good news for Foge was that the former Panthers center-linebacker (He played in Mike Ditka in 58-59.) and defensive coordinator took over a preseason no. 1 team with a star-studded cast of Dan Marino at quarterback, future NFLers Jimbo Covert, Jim Sweeney and Bill Fralic in the offensive line, and tackle Bill Maas, linebackers Michael Woods and Chris Doleman, and backs Tim Lewis, Troy Hill and Tom Flynn on the defense. The bad news was that Pitt won its first four games against ranked opponents but never by sufficiently large a score to please the local faithful.

Regrettably, Pitt lost three of its last five games that year and by 1985 had faded badly under Fazio's watch. Foge was fired and went to the NFL where he became a very good defensive coach on some good teams.

When public pressure in Pittsburgh was against Foge—as it now is against Tiger Woods, granted, on a far bigger scale for Tiger—did Foge clam up, rebuke the police, blame the media, skip a charity event? No, what Foge would do in those down years of 1984-85 was come out (mostly during the off-season) and drink a beer at one of the more upscale Friday night hangouts. He'd smile, shake hands, tell a story or two, and be on his way after no more than two mellow-tasting I.C. Lights.

Can you imagine Tiger Woods out in Orlando tomorrow night, shaking hands with his sports-minded critics and swapping stories over a cold one? No way! R.I.P. Foge.

Here are my picks for Thursday and Saturday, December 3 and 5:

My season of prognosticating is beginning to look like Foge Fazio's 3-7-1 record at Pitt in 1984. This week to honor my late, old acquaintance, I'm going with teams with the better defenses.

(Thursday) Oregon State (+10) at OREGON
Neither team is blessed with Pitt's 1982 defensive talent, but the Ducks, a better all-around team, also have a slightly better defense than the Beavers. The winner goes to the Rose Bowl, and Oregon simply is more talented. I'm not nuts about covering 10 points against Oregon State, a perennial good late-season team, but…. Pick: Oregon -10

(Saturday) Cincinnati (-1) at PITTSBURGH
Wouldn't it just be like Dave Wannstedt's unpredictable Panthers to lose to rival West Virginia last week and turn around to ruin the season and a BCS bid for undefeated Cincinnati? This is purely a hunch to honor ex-Panther Foge. Pick: Pittsburgh +1

(Saturday) Florida (-5.5) vs. Alabama at Atlanta
There is no better defense than Alabama's, and I just have a hunch on this one. Hey, nothing else is working for me this season. A couple of turnovers and one or two good passes in the red-zone by Tide quarterback Greg McElroy will be enough to nip a seemingly destined Florida team. Yes, I know Tim Tebow is way better than McElroy. Pick: Alabama +5.5

(Saturday) Texas (-14) vs. Nebraska at Arlington, Texas
I see no way Texas can be kept from a date in the national title game because without turnover help Nebraska's offense simply isn't good enough to score more than 7-10 points against the Longhorns. But, the Huskers defense is way better than most people realize. How would we be looking at this game, had Nebraska's offense pulled out two losses that should have been wins? Those are the 16-15 loss at Virginia Tech and the painful 9-7 loss to Iowa State brought about by four lost fumbles (!) inside the Iowa State five yard-line. Here's what we'd see: Nebraska at 11-1 getting about four-points as underdogs to undefeated Texas. Nebraska may not win, but can cover. Pick: Nebraska +14

Paul's Picks for Dec. 5, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan's Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.

Paul's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 27-21

Loaded final weekend

This is it. Assuming 48-pt underdog New Mexico State fails to beat undefeated Boise State this weekend, the last chance we have for a major upset this season comes this Saturday night in Arlington as Nebraska hopes to derail the national title hopes of favored Texas. Yet despite the absence of stunners this season there has been plenty of excitement and this week should prove to be a fine cap on an excellent regular season.

Thanks to quirks in the schedule, tonight's Oregon-Oregon State Civil War game has a Rose Bowl berth riding on it and a conference title and BCS berth is at stake when Big East rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati meet this Saturday at noon. The ACC title will be decided Saturday night between Clemson and Georgia Tech, who played a tight game in September that Tech narrowly won. Both tomorrow night's MAC title game between Ohio and Central Michigan and Saturday's Conference USA battle pitting East Carolina and Houston offer top-notch QBs in CMU's Dan LeFevour and Houston's Case Keenum in addition to conference glory. Have room for more? Both the Big East and Pac 10 have some intriguing match-ups between programs jockeying for better bowl games.

The calendar may say December, but there is plenty of college football action this week.

Here are my picks for this week:

(Friday) Central Michigan (-13) vs. Ohio at Detroit

The Chippewas are targeting their third MAC title in four years and will not let the Ohio Bobcats stand in their way. CMU QB Dan LeFevour is the star of the conference and plays his best in the big ones—just ask the Michigan State secondary. Ohio does play solid defense and has a senior QB too in Theo Scott, but they cannot keep up with the firepower of CMU. Central Michigan won those previous two titles by 21 and 25 pts. With a win, coach Butch Jones will have two conference titles in his three years as the head man at CMU and is making a statement for a bigger job. Pick: Central Michigan -13.

(Saturday) West Virginia (+1.5) at RUTGERS
West Virginia has won 14 straight in this series. West Virginia is solid this year but not spectacular. If Rutgers will ever end this streak, they need to do so this year. Pick: Rutgers -1.5

(Saturday) Georgia Tech vs. Clemson at Tampa
Clemson left the field September 10 after losing 30-27 at Georgia Tech with a bad taste in their mouth. After a slow start, the Tigers dominated most of the second half before surrendering two late FGs. Both teams improved as the season went on, but the Tigers have a big advantage Saturday because they lost that game earlier in the season. Pick: Clemson even

(Saturday) Florida Atlantic (+2) at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
May be my last chance to predict a game featuring coach Howard Schnellenberger and who am I to pick against him? Pick: Florida Atlantic +2