Paul's Picks

After our annual slow starts to college football predictions, Bob and I are blowing up the format. Bob will do a pregame run-through of a few games while I will hand in individual picks by Thursday/Friday. The spreads are based on the Friday USA TODAY.
Paul's Picks:
California (-2.5) at NEVADA
A very good California squad has yet to get much respect this early in the season. They do have a big game next week in Tucson, but being on national television tonight will prevent their looking ahead. As for Nevada, I have great respect for their program but they are a team that wins the games they should win but cannot pull off the type of win that could elevate the program. They have lost to Boise State 10 straight times and dropped games in recent years to Maryland and Miami in postseason action and Notre Dame, Missouri, Texas Tech, Northwestern and Nebraska in the regular season. Pick: Cal -2.5
Arkansas at GEORGIA (-2)
Everyone does understand that if Georgia wins this game it is not an upset even though Arkansas is ranked and the Bulldogs are not. While many of the folks at ESPN are jumping on the Bulldogs this week to bounce back from a poor offensive performance against South Carolina, I do not see it. Yes Georgia scored 52 against the Hogs last year, but that was a much different Bulldogs squad (who had scored 41 the week before versus South Carolina). An improved Hogs defense has circled this game to prove to the country that they can play tough. Their coaches had to be buoyed by the game film from Georgia's week 2 performance. Meanwhile, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett will make enough plays with the Arkansas offense to keep the Hogs ranked. Pick: Arkansas +2
San Diego State at MISSOURI (-14)
As much as I think Missouri is a fine squad, I am picking the Aztecs in this game because I feel they are an under-the-radar program that could make some noise here and in the MWC race (e.g., Utah has to go to San Diego the weekend after they play Notre Dame). Run by offensive coordinator Al Borges, the Aztecs offense will score in Columbia. QB Ryan Lindley, RB Ronnie Hillman and WR DeMarco Sampson will all introduce themselves to Big 12 audiences this weekend. Game should be fun, but in a shootout take the 2 TDs. Pick: San Diego State +14.
Florida (-14) at TENNESSEE
You have to feel for the Volunteer players. Thanks to the train wreck that was the one-year visit by coach Lane Kiffin, Tennessee is undermanned. Then their current coach Derek Dooley, who won 17 of 37 games at Louisiana Tech, tells the nation that the team does not know how to shower. Now, after Oregon blew them out in the second half last week, the Vols face a Florida squad that has beaten them five straight times. And did I mention that Gators coach Urban Meyer is pissed for the tough game Tennessee gave them last year and because he has to answer questions this week about the arrest of slot receiver Chris Rainey? The Florida offense has made strides each week and welcomes back injured LT Xavier Nixon. They are due to bust out, while the Vols are just too weakened by a small roster and bout with staph infections. Pick: Florida -14.
Notre Dame at MICHIGAN STATE (-3.5)
Despite having a poor duo of backup quarterbacks give away eight mid-game possessions, the Irish nearly beat a Michigan team featuring one of the most dynamic players in the country. Now they get to visit the hard-nosed Spartans, who feature a completely different style of play. But Notre Dame is the more tested squad and will get to pick on an average MSU secondary. Also with the national attention on the Spartans star linebacker Greg Jones, look for Notre Dame's young duo of Mant Te'o and Carlo Calabrese to make some noise and a lot of tackles. Pick: Notre Dame +3.5