Week One Picks Continued

Bob's Picks for Sept. 4-6, 2010: This week, Point Spreads are based on Danny Sheridan's Thursday spreads in USA TODAY.

Bob's picks Against-the-Spread (ATS) this Season: 0-0-1

Go East, Young Man

I'm watching Big East teams this weekend.

Pittsburgh at UTAH (-3): My Thursday pick of Pittsburgh, a 27-24 OT loser to Utah, turned up as a tie, or "push" in the vernacular of Las Vegas. (I think Sammy Davis, Jr. coined the phrase.) Big moment everyone will forget: While Utah was a deserving victor, Pitt made a bad blitz decision just when it was seizing control in the fourth quarter. A simple slant-in pass turned into a Utah TD that created a 24-13 deficit too big to overcome by the Panthers.

SATURDAY:

Connecticut at MICHIGAN (-3): Underappreciated coach Randy Edsall could have UConn as a top-25 team by season's end for the first time ever. The key is the passing accuracy (only 53.2% last year) of one-time Notre Dame top recruit Zach Frazer. UConn has 16 starters back. Michigan will likely qualify for a bowl this year, probably with six or seven wins. The hungry yellow-clad (Ooo, sorry, Michigan fans, I mean maize-clad) crowd will be fired up. But I suspect they'll be throwing their hands on their heads again: remember Appalachian State in 2007 and all of 2008. This should come out something like Uconn 30, Michigan 27. PICK: Connecticut +3.

Louisiana State vs. North Carolina (+4) at Atlanta: North Carolina has 15 of its best players sitting this one out. That might inspire the Tar Heels or totally disrupt them. Here's the bottom line: How is an upper-tier SEC team—is LSU third-best?—only a 4-point favorite over an upper-tier ACC team—is Carolina third or fourth-best? PICK: LSU -4.

Cincinnati at FRESNO STATE (-2.5): The Bearcats as a distant road team get no respect—wins at Hawaii in 2008 and Oregon State in '09—and still are underdogs at Fresno. Remember the Bulldogs were the original BCS-buster more than a decade ago but only once got past nine wins in a year. Fresno also has been good in home openers under veteran coach Pat Hill, but Cincy has the most talent. PICK: Cincinnati +2.5.

MONDAY:

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech at Landover, MD: Here comes a Boise pop quiz. In eight games against BCS teams since 2005, the Broncos own a record of (a) 7-1, (b) 6-2, (c) 4-4, or (d) all of the above. You wouldn't believe it with all the hype but the answer is (c) 4-4. And it is 1-3 on the road, and believe it, this "neutral site" really is a home game for Virginia Tech (half a day's drive from Landover). Interestingly, a Hokie loss here won't necessarily ruin their season, while this game is everything for Boise State. It could be a great one. Boise is very well-coached and has fewer top-level studs than you might think. PICK: Virginia Tech +2.

 

Paul's Picks for Sept. 4-6, 2010: This week, point spreads are based on Danny Sheridan's Thursday spreads in USA TODAY.

Paul's picks this week against-the-spread (ATS): 1-1

I split the other night with a win with a Hawaii team that gained 588 yards against USC and a blowout loss by Southern Miss against a rejuvenated South Carolina team. The Gamecocks will disappoint their fans at some point this season. They always do.

I like a number of games the rest of the weekend, so I will cut right to the chase.

Illinois vs. Missouri (-12) in St. Louis. The Illini were blown out in this game last year and that was despite having a huge advantage in experience at the quarterback position. But now Tigers QB Blaine Gabbert is the experienced one and he will light up Illinois. Sure leading rusher Derrick Washington has been suspended, but Mizzou has experience at that position and the type of offensive line that will make subs look like stars. Pick: Missouri -12.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (+11.5) in Denver. I am going with the Rams in this game—I must admit that I pick them every year in this game and they have rewarded me handsomely for my loyalty—and there is a theme developing with my first two picks. Both Illinois (Ron Zook) and Colorado (Dan Hawkins) are coached by men who are barely hanging on to their job. Embattled coaches almost never inspire a job-saving season from their team. Hawkins does have a host of starters back, but CSU is pledged to win this year with a powerful run game and defense—staples of the fine years enjoyed by former coach Sonny Lubick. Pick: Colorado State +11.5

Northwestern at VANDERBILT (+4): I mentioned respect the other day and this is a classic case where one team is not getting enough. The Wildcats gave Auburn all it could handle in the Outback Bowl last year and while the Tigers are looked on as a trendy pick to have a great season nobody has said boo about the boys from Evanston. Sure QB Mike Kafka is gone, but replacement Dan Persa has plenty of talent. They have a big advantage in experience and skill against a Vandy squad that has to be reeling from their coach's decision to retire in mid-summer. Pick: Northwestern -4.

SUNDAY

SMU at TEXAS TECH (-13.5): With the drastic change in coaching style from Mike Leach to Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech has to be vulnerable early in the season. Now Tuberville is not changing too much of the Red Raiders system, but he has such a different mindset compared to Leach that has to be an adjustment period. For the Mustangs, they enter this season with a lot of confidence and expect to gain more national respect—there is that word again—with good showing here and against TCU later in the month. Pick: SMU +13.5

MONDAY

Navy vs. Maryland (+6) at Baltimore: Maryland's Ralph Friedgen is another coach on the hot seat. While he is optimistic about his offense, the defense will be the downfall in this game. His team has also started poorly in each of the past two seasons. For the Midshipmen, they are used to playing under the radar and will prove to be more than 10 points better than what has become the second best program in the state. Ricky Dobbs for Heisman! Pick: Navy -6.

There are quite a lot of games this week pitting top ten teams against woefully undermanned opponents. If you have to pick one of these games, go for Alabama to beat San Jose State by at least 10 points more than their spread (37).