Bob's Picks for Sept. 2, 2010: Point Spreads based on Danny Sheridan's Thursday spreads in USA TODAY.
Bob's picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS) Last Season: Let's forget last season
Go East, Young Man
The always under-appreciated Big East Conference has three attractive underdogs in the first weekend of college games for 2010. I'm only going to pick one game at a time, so here goes for Thursday.
Pittsburgh at UTAH (-3)
Over on http://www.philsteele.com/, our favorite football preview magazine author has a question: Which ranked team is most likely to lose to an unranked team this week? By far, Pitt at 51% is the choice, presumably with potent Utah playing at home. Afraid I don't buy it: The Panthers have improved greatly the last two years and been very good as an underdog—10-3 over the last three years. It should be a close game. Pick: PITT +3.
Paul's Picks for September 2, 2010: Point Spreads are based on Sheridan's Thursday spreads.
A Matter of Respect
The key to winning in week one is to spot which teams are getting too much love and which teams are not getting enough based on your own projections for the upcoming season. Which teams are being treated with too much respect for past glories? Which underdogs will prove to be better than expected?
Southern Miss at SOUTH CAROLINA (-14)
The theme tonight is to take dogs playing anyone named USC. Is it me or are the Gamecocks the most overrated team this preseason? USC under coach Steve Spurrier has always underperformed when expectations are high. Sure they have returning starters, but so too the Golden Eagles defense—who have nine returnees including the top three tacklers—who will frustrate a Gamecock attack that topped 16 points only once in the last seven games of the 2009 season. And on offense, Southern Miss will attack an improving USC secondary with dynamic wideout DeAndre Brown. I expect the Gamecocks to win, but by single digits. Pick: So Miss +14
Southern California (-21.5) at HAWAII
This is a classic week one opportunity for two reasons: too much respect for past glory for USC and a match-up problem for the Trojans. This spread is treating the visitors as if they are a top five team, which they are not. Plus the Trojans will not be able to run up the score on offense behind an inexperienced offensive line that will tangle with a solid defensive front for the Warriors. But the best match-up for Hawaii is when they drop back to throw as returning starting QB Bryant Moniz will be targeting any of four WRs against a Southern Cal secondary that lost all four starters after last season and then some depth this spring due to transfers, injuries and suspension. Look for senior Greg Salas, who caught 106 passes for 1,590y last year, to make a splash on the national stage. Pick: Hawaii +21.5
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