Bob’s Picks for Oct. 24, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.Bob’s picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-1, Season: 15-15
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29, failed to cover 21, 4 “Pushes” (ties), one No Line
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 154, failed to cover 171 (47.38%)
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29, failed to cover 21, 4 “Pushes” (ties), one No Line
Season ATS:
Favorites covered 154, failed to cover 171 (47.38%)
Mid-Season Trends
As I sloshed through the earliest snowfall in the official meteorological history of State College, Pennsylvania, last weekend, I came away with cold feet and the sense that two point-spread trends are starting to emerge at mid-season.
Each of these trends is fairly predictable for the middle of any college season. First of all, favorites are beginning to flex their muscles. (Never mind that Paul and I combined to successfully pick four dogs last week.) Las Vegas is getting a better feel for what teams should earn favorite’s roles, while the high hopes of some likely underdogs are beginning to fade into the depressed records like 1-5, 2-5, 2-4, or 3-4.
Last week’s favorites (October 17 weekend) covered their spreads a season-best 58 percent, the best previous week coming the prior week (October 10) when they broke even at 50 percent. For the season (see above), favorites are covering below break-even at 47.38%.
Some good looking favorites this week include MIAMI -5 over Clemson, Oklahoma State -9.5 over BAYLOR, ARIZONA -7.5 over Ucla, Tcu -2 over BYU, and LSU -7.5 over Auburn.
The other trend can be found—somewhat contrarily—in often attractive double-digit-home-underdogs (DDHD for short). Selectors can’t be indiscriminant in this area because often some terrible teams fall into this category. But teams still harboring a flicker of bowl-game hope can be very attractive even if they can’t win outright.
Last week DDHDs went 6-3 ATS with Purdue and Colorado springing full-blown upsets over ranked foes. This week’s slate offers eight DDHDs: ARMY +10 vs. Rutgers, MIAMI (OHIO) -11 vs. Northern Illinois, WASHINGTON +10 vs. Oregon, MISSOURI +13 vs. Texas, RICE +10 vs. Central Florida, MISSISSIPPI STATE +23 vs. Florida, NEW MEXICO STATE +24 vs. Fresno State, and HAWAII +25 vs. Boise State.
Of these I think you can throw out half: Army can’t score sufficiently, Rice is plain awful, and I know too little about Miami (Ohio) and New Mexico State to recommend them. The other DDHDs all have some interesting juice going for them: Washington (fired up for Oregon and much improved this year), Missouri (playing Texas after the Longhorns’ huge effort against rival Oklahoma), Mississippi State (with a head coach who knows Florida inside and out), and Hawaii (playing at home on distant shores).
As I sloshed through the earliest snowfall in the official meteorological history of State College, Pennsylvania, last weekend, I came away with cold feet and the sense that two point-spread trends are starting to emerge at mid-season.
Each of these trends is fairly predictable for the middle of any college season. First of all, favorites are beginning to flex their muscles. (Never mind that Paul and I combined to successfully pick four dogs last week.) Las Vegas is getting a better feel for what teams should earn favorite’s roles, while the high hopes of some likely underdogs are beginning to fade into the depressed records like 1-5, 2-5, 2-4, or 3-4.
Last week’s favorites (October 17 weekend) covered their spreads a season-best 58 percent, the best previous week coming the prior week (October 10) when they broke even at 50 percent. For the season (see above), favorites are covering below break-even at 47.38%.
Some good looking favorites this week include MIAMI -5 over Clemson, Oklahoma State -9.5 over BAYLOR, ARIZONA -7.5 over Ucla, Tcu -2 over BYU, and LSU -7.5 over Auburn.
The other trend can be found—somewhat contrarily—in often attractive double-digit-home-underdogs (DDHD for short). Selectors can’t be indiscriminant in this area because often some terrible teams fall into this category. But teams still harboring a flicker of bowl-game hope can be very attractive even if they can’t win outright.
Last week DDHDs went 6-3 ATS with Purdue and Colorado springing full-blown upsets over ranked foes. This week’s slate offers eight DDHDs: ARMY +10 vs. Rutgers, MIAMI (OHIO) -11 vs. Northern Illinois, WASHINGTON +10 vs. Oregon, MISSOURI +13 vs. Texas, RICE +10 vs. Central Florida, MISSISSIPPI STATE +23 vs. Florida, NEW MEXICO STATE +24 vs. Fresno State, and HAWAII +25 vs. Boise State.
Of these I think you can throw out half: Army can’t score sufficiently, Rice is plain awful, and I know too little about Miami (Ohio) and New Mexico State to recommend them. The other DDHDs all have some interesting juice going for them: Washington (fired up for Oregon and much improved this year), Missouri (playing Texas after the Longhorns’ huge effort against rival Oklahoma), Mississippi State (with a head coach who knows Florida inside and out), and Hawaii (playing at home on distant shores).
Here are my picks for the week of October 24:
Saturday (12:30 p.m. EDT): Oklahoma State (-9.5) at BAYLOR
The Cowboys have slipped under the radar since losing to Houston back in the second week of the year. But Oklahoma State still has plenty of weapons. Baylor looked like it was just about to earn its way into bowl contention when quarterback Robert Griffin went down with a knee injury. And perhaps no team in the country depended so much on one player as Baylor depended on Griffin. Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5
The Cowboys have slipped under the radar since losing to Houston back in the second week of the year. But Oklahoma State still has plenty of weapons. Baylor looked like it was just about to earn its way into bowl contention when quarterback Robert Griffin went down with a knee injury. And perhaps no team in the country depended so much on one player as Baylor depended on Griffin. Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5
Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Clemson (+5) at MIAMI
The Clemson Tigers are up and down like much of the ACC. Meanwhile, Miami, striving to be the class of the conference, keeps rolling except for the one disaster at Virginia Tech. Pick: Miami -5
The Clemson Tigers are up and down like much of the ACC. Meanwhile, Miami, striving to be the class of the conference, keeps rolling except for the one disaster at Virginia Tech. Pick: Miami -5
Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Oregon (-10) at WASHINGTON
This is a bigger rivalry than most fans realize, at least those who live outside the Pacific Northwest. Washington, with some fine efforts under its belt this year, is smarting under five straight losses to the Ducks. The Huskies might not win this one, but going with DDHD magic, they look to make it mighty close in a game that could go either way. Pick: Washington +10
This is a bigger rivalry than most fans realize, at least those who live outside the Pacific Northwest. Washington, with some fine efforts under its belt this year, is smarting under five straight losses to the Ducks. The Huskies might not win this one, but going with DDHD magic, they look to make it mighty close in a game that could go either way. Pick: Washington +10
Saturday (7:30 p.m. EDT): Texas Christian (-2) at BRIGHAM YOUNG
The winner of this showdown will take a big step toward the Mountain West title. Undefeated TCU at 6-0 can catch Boise State for the one BCS Bowl spot not reserved for the major conferences because the Frogs meet two very good opponents (BYU and Utah) in their last six games. Boise, meanwhile, plays the Merchant Marine Academy, East Cupcake State, and Boise Central Junior High School. Pick: TCU -2
The winner of this showdown will take a big step toward the Mountain West title. Undefeated TCU at 6-0 can catch Boise State for the one BCS Bowl spot not reserved for the major conferences because the Frogs meet two very good opponents (BYU and Utah) in their last six games. Boise, meanwhile, plays the Merchant Marine Academy, East Cupcake State, and Boise Central Junior High School. Pick: TCU -2
Paul’s picks for the week of October 24:
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-0, Season: 16-13
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-0, Season: 16-13
Messing with Karma
Well I followed a week featuring picks that went 0-4 with a week in which I was 3-0. Go figure. I am doing something today for the first time in my moderately long life: picking against the team I have rooted for since day one, Notre Dame. Will that doom me to another week of lousy picking? Or will my hot hand from last week—including a win picking ND—continue even though I have sullied my reputation in South Bend. Go Irish! Win by seven!
Friday (8:00 pm EDT): Rutgers (-10) at ARMY
I am picking against the trend Bob mentioned about double digit home underdogs as Rutgers is in its annual rush to secure six or seven wins and a spot in the Papajohns.com Bowl or the International Bowl. They have more talent, like playing on Friday night and do not have to travel very far. Pick: Rutgers -10.
Saturday (1:30 pm EDT): Maryland (+6) at DUKE
I have not had many opportunities to pick Duke as a six-point favorite in a conference game and will not let this opportunity slip by. Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis has been fully indoctrinated in coach David Cutcliffe’s “Yes, You Too Can be a Great Quarterback” tutorials and is playing at a level too high for a reeling Maryland squad. Pick: Duke -6.
I have not had many opportunities to pick Duke as a six-point favorite in a conference game and will not let this opportunity slip by. Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis has been fully indoctrinated in coach David Cutcliffe’s “Yes, You Too Can be a Great Quarterback” tutorials and is playing at a level too high for a reeling Maryland squad. Pick: Duke -6.
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Boston College (+8) at NOTRE DAME
This game will be similar to the Michigan State game for the Irish in that they will be happy just to beat a team that has had their number over the years. Boston College has won six straight in this series because these contests mean so much more to them than to a Notre Dame program with a number of more established rivalries. Playing the Irish one week after USC came to town certainly helps. One big problem for the Eagles, however, is that they played poorly in road losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech. Pick: BC +8.
This game will be similar to the Michigan State game for the Irish in that they will be happy just to beat a team that has had their number over the years. Boston College has won six straight in this series because these contests mean so much more to them than to a Notre Dame program with a number of more established rivalries. Playing the Irish one week after USC came to town certainly helps. One big problem for the Eagles, however, is that they played poorly in road losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech. Pick: BC +8.
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