Bob’s picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-2, Season: 17-17
All 2009 Games
Last Week ATS:
Favorites covered 29 (54.7%), failed to cover 24, 2 Evens, one No Line
Season ATS: Favorites covered 183 (48.4%), failed to cover 195
Hobgoblins, Beavers, and Cowboys
Last week I gave you two mid-year trends: favorites becoming a better bet and double-digit home dogs (DDHDs) as good choices to cover.
Both concepts slipped a bit. Favorites had their third straight week above break-even (54.7%) but failed to exceed the performance of October 17 that scored 58%.
DDHDs were a miserable 2-6 (after going 14-9 over three weeks) as Washington’s collapse against Oregon led the way. Only Miami of Ohio and Mississippi State covered as DDHDs. (None of this week’s four DDHDs are compelling, but at least one or two might cover: SYRACUSE +14.5 vs. Cincinnati, VANDERBILT +11.5 vs. Georgia Tech, BAYLOR +13 vs. Nebraska, and NORTHWESTERN +14.5 vs. Penn State.)
This week I offer a long-lost unbeatable trend. It is the official black-and-orange theme of Halloween. You probably don’t know this, but four major football programs that have worn black-and-orange as their primary colors own a 15-8 won-loss record (65.2%) when playing on the seven Halloweens that have fallen on Saturdays (1953, 1959, 1964, 1970, 1981, 1987, and 1998) since the end of World War II.
The bad news is that Ivy League Princeton at 7-0—now playing in lower level FCS and never listed by the oddsmakers—and Pacific at 3-0—which stopped playing football in 1996—contribute a dazzling 10-0 record to the mighty black-and-orange. Never mind that the other two—the Oregon State Beavers and Oklahoma State Cowboys—stand at 5-8. They will carry the colors to ATS glory this Saturday.
Here are my picks for the week of October 31:
Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Temple (+6) at NAVY
Not even in Philadelphia where every sports fan is going nuts over the Phillies does anybody seem to know that lowly Temple has won five straight games. Granted, none of those defeated teams is as good as Navy at 6-2, but Middies star QB Ricky Dobbs is out. This is a hunch in a low scoring game. Pick: Temple +6
Saturday (4:00 p.m. EDT): UCLA (+10) at OREGON STATE
A lot of people, including me, expected more out of UCLA this season, especially after a 3-0 start. But the Bruins ruinously have dropped four straight in the Pac-10 and don’t appear ready to make a successful trip to the Northwest, where the weather will be cool and rainy. Under coach Mike Riley, Oregon State typically has come on strong in the latter half of seasons. The Beavers are 18-3 (15-6 ATS) the last three years after mid-season. Go black-and-orange! Pick: Oregon State -10
Saturday (8:00 p.m. EDT): Texas (-9) at OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State superstar receiver Dez Bryant was officially bounced for the season by the NCAA, but his cheering from the sideline might serve to fire up the Cowboys even more than his absence will hurt. If Texas is to be beaten before a possible trip to the national title game, it likely will have to be this Saturday. The Cowboys, somewhat forgotten since their Houston loss in September, seek redemption for 11 losses in a row to the Longhorns and are long overdue. Halloween black-and-orange carries the day. Pick: Oklahoma State +9
PS: Cornell (2-4) better watch out when the Big Red visits Princeton this Saturday (1:00 p.m. EDT) because the black-and-orange Halloween hobgoblin curse is certain to inspire the Tigers.
Paul’s Picks for Oct. 31, 2009:
Paul’s picks last week Against-the-Spread (ATS): 2-1, Season: 18-14
Statistics Can Be Misleading
As I was reading the weekly predictions made by the ESPN bloggers today, I had to pause to chuckle. They make such a big deal about how lofty their winning percentage is regarding these picks despite not factoring the spread into the equation. So they can happily predict some score for Florida each week—not to pick on their SEC blogger as this covers the lot of them—and count it as a win even if Florida does not cover.
In reading the ACC section the question of who would win between Virginia and Duke this Saturday featured a sentence praising Virginia’s pass defense for being ranked high nationwide. It appears that the Cavs do not give up much passing yardage. And good for them as my target here is the misuse of statistics in sports reporting and not the players from Charlottesville, who have improved from last year in this regard. But here is where stats can lead you astray. Virginia has played seven games so far this year. Not one of them featured an opponent ranked in the top 30 in passing in the country and two of the teams, North Carolina and Georgia Tech, are ranked outside of the top 100 FBS teams in passing. That does not count William & Mary, a FCS opponent who beat Virginia in Week One. QB R. J. Archer threw for 184y in that game so we can throw out those results. The statistics compiled to date by the Cavaliers defense will in no way be a factor against Duke this week, Miami next week nor even Boston College, Clemson and Virginia Tech down the road. Virginia does seem to have a pretty good pass defense—we just cannot extrapolate that from skewed statistics.
But let’s see what I have extrapolated for the picks this week:
Saturday (Noon EDT): Rutgers (+7.5) at CONNECTICUT
It has been an emotional two weeks for a Huskies program that lost one of their own to senseless violence. From the death of Jasper Howard, which was witnessed by some teammates, to the police investigation and arrest of suspects to his burial, these teenagers and young adults have had to grow up a great deal. Last week’s loss to West Virginia had to be emotionally draining. Now they have to play a program, Rutgers that they have been pretty even with over the years. My assumption is that Connecticut will be flat and lose outright. Even if that assumption is wrong, five of the last seven games between these rivals have been decided by less than seven points. Pick: Rutgers +7.5
Saturday (3:30 p.m. EDT): Kansas (+6.5) at TEXAS TECH
And we always thought that the problems with young athletes today were drugs or agents or posses or some other scourge. No, Texas Tech coach Mike Leach set us all straight at his post-game press conference last week. The problem with his players is that they listen too much to their “fat, little girlfriends.” For those who did not hear his diatribe, well it is worth looking up. Kansas has lost the past two games to backup QBs playing for Colorado and Oklahoma. The pick here is that a third-string QB, Seth Doege, lights them up this week. Hopefully he is dating someone who is tall and thin. Pick: Texas Tech -6.5
Saturday (7:45 p.m. EDT): South Carolina (+5.5) at TENNESSEE
While Lane Kiffin may want to be Steve Spurrier when he grows up, he is not at that level just yet and with this game expected to be a defensive struggle, I have to take all of those points. The Gamecocks have had this game circled since the offseason when frosh WR Alshon Jeffery quoted Kiffin as saying that if he, Jeffery, went to SC he would end up pumping gas for a living like other South Carolina high school products who chose the state U. Jeffery did sign with South Carolina and made Kiffin’s comments public. While Kiffin denied saying the remark, the damage was done. Pick: South Carolina +5.5
Saturday (8:00 p.m. EDT): Michigan State -3.5 at MINNESOTA
With WR Eric Decker lost to injury, the fortunes of the Golden Gophers are fading fast. They were embarrassed in the past two games, barely competing against Penn State and Ohio State. The Spartans, on the other hand, had won three straight games before losing last week on the last play against undefeated Iowa. The Spartans do need to knock out a nighttime crowd early. Pick: Michigan State -3.5
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