Paul’s Picks for Oct. 3, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.
Favorites Cover 81, Dogs Win 46, Dogs Lose but Cover 52, Push 1.
Favorites Cover 81, Dogs Win 46, Dogs Lose but Cover 52, Push 1.
So Favorites are 81-98-1.
Last Week’s Picks: 3-1
Overall Picks: 10-8
Call Me Crazy
Over the past three weeks I have perfected the art of correctly predicting three out of four games. Will the start of a new month push me toward perfection, or send me back to mediocrity? I have a mixed bag of favorites and underdogs, home teams and roadsters for your viewing pleasure. Call me crazy but I am staying away from anything taking place on a day other than Saturday, despite some decent success with those games.
Saturday (1:00 pm EDT): Cincinnati (-28.5) at MIAMI (Ohio)
Yes I know Cincinnati is due for a letdown. They had a great September and return to Big East play with their next game and that one is on the road at perhaps their toughest competition for the Big East title—South Florida. But, there are two factors in the Bearcats favor in taking on Miami this week. For one thing, the Redhawks are pretty bad. They are 0-4 and in their sole home game, they lost to Kentucky 42-0. Plus, this is a rivalry game as the two have tangled 113 times for the Victory Bell. Bearcat backups will get to strut their stuff early in the 2nd H.
Pick: Cincinnati -28.5
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Penn State (-7) at ILLINOIS
As much as the Nittany Lions typically struggle against Iowa, they do well against Illinois. Penn State has won 13 of 16 contests overall versus the Illini, although they lost by a 27-20 score two years ago in a game played in Champaign. But that Illinois squad entered the contest on a three-game win streak and then upset no. 5 ranked Wisconsin a week later. This squad is not playing nearly as well and will greatly miss injured LB Martez Wilson. Penn State bounces back with a comfortable road win. Pick: Penn State -7.
Saturday (7:30 pm EDT): Texas A&M pick ‘em versus Arkansas (at Arlington, Texas)
There will be plenty of points scored in this contest, a return engagement for long-time rivals from the defunct Southwest Conference. When these two used to tangle the emphasis was almost always on the ground attacks. But now both teams showcase big, strapping QBs in Jerrod Johnson of the Aggies, who has thrown nine TD passes and rushed in 4 more six-pointers, and Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown seven TDs for the season. Arkansas is much more battle tested than A&M, which gives them the edge in this neutral field showdown.
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Penn State (-7) at ILLINOIS
As much as the Nittany Lions typically struggle against Iowa, they do well against Illinois. Penn State has won 13 of 16 contests overall versus the Illini, although they lost by a 27-20 score two years ago in a game played in Champaign. But that Illinois squad entered the contest on a three-game win streak and then upset no. 5 ranked Wisconsin a week later. This squad is not playing nearly as well and will greatly miss injured LB Martez Wilson. Penn State bounces back with a comfortable road win. Pick: Penn State -7.
Saturday (7:30 pm EDT): Texas A&M pick ‘em versus Arkansas (at Arlington, Texas)
There will be plenty of points scored in this contest, a return engagement for long-time rivals from the defunct Southwest Conference. When these two used to tangle the emphasis was almost always on the ground attacks. But now both teams showcase big, strapping QBs in Jerrod Johnson of the Aggies, who has thrown nine TD passes and rushed in 4 more six-pointers, and Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who has thrown seven TDs for the season. Arkansas is much more battle tested than A&M, which gives them the edge in this neutral field showdown.
Pick: Arkansas even.
Saturday (8:00 pm EDT): Oklahoma (-7) at MIAMI
QB Landry Jones has been impressive subbing for injured Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, but playing a night game in Miami against an angry bunch of Hurricanes is not quite the same as home games against Idaho and Tulsa. Miami was embarrassed one week ago at Virginia Tech and two years ago in Norman, but looks to this match in their continuing effort to regain national respect. The Sooners rarely play good nonconference opponents outside of Norman. They lost at Oregon in 2006 and at UCLA the season before in similar situations. Without Bradford and dynamic TE Jermaine Gresham, out for the year and already declared for the NFL draft, the Sooners will struggle. Pick: Miami +7
Saturday (8:00 pm EDT): Oklahoma (-7) at MIAMI
QB Landry Jones has been impressive subbing for injured Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, but playing a night game in Miami against an angry bunch of Hurricanes is not quite the same as home games against Idaho and Tulsa. Miami was embarrassed one week ago at Virginia Tech and two years ago in Norman, but looks to this match in their continuing effort to regain national respect. The Sooners rarely play good nonconference opponents outside of Norman. They lost at Oregon in 2006 and at UCLA the season before in similar situations. Without Bradford and dynamic TE Jermaine Gresham, out for the year and already declared for the NFL draft, the Sooners will struggle. Pick: Miami +7
I like you picks but I'll go with A & M since Arkansas can't stop anyone
ReplyDelete