Bob’s Picks for Oct. 10, 2009: Point Spreads always are based on Danny Sheridan’s Wednesday spreads in USA TODAY.
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 10-13
All Games listed in Danny Sheridan’s “Today’s Lines” column
Last Week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 28, one “Push” (tie), one Even
Season ATS: Favorites covered 101, failed to cover 126
Gotta know when to hold ‘em
Picking games against the point-spread is plenty difficult and even worse when bookies handle your action, legally or illegally. Truth is, bookies keep all your losses and 10 percent of your winnings—known as “Viggerish”—and the “Vig” keeps the professionals prospering in a dandy business. Best to pick games ATS just for fun.
In addition to picking winners, there is an additional challenge: Knowing what games to stay away from. That is, “knowing when to hold ‘em,” as the old Kenny Rogers song went.
There are two truly fascinating contests this Saturday because of events leading up to the games. Those would be Florida at LSU and Georgia Tech at Florida State. I’m telling you: “Stay away!”
The playing status of former Heisman-winning Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is questionable due to the concussion he suffered two weeks ago. It would seem Tebow will be held out against LSU, but even if he plays one wonders how effective he can be, given his wonderful slam-bang style. That’s a strike against the top-ranked Gators, a 7.5 favorite on the road at Tiger Stadium against no. 4 LSU. On the other hand, Florida’s outstanding defense, inspired so often by Tebow in the past, might just rise up to muzzle the Tigers’ still-developing offense.
Then there is undefeated LSU, a tremendous home team with its own outstanding defense. Computer whiz Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings, found every Tuesday in USA TODAY, give the Tigers a 10.05 advantage over Florida, one of the largest edges this weekend. Usually a 6-point advantage in Sagarin numbers is significant enough to earn serious consideration for the higher rated team.
Over in Tallahassee, veteran coach Bobby Bowden of 2-3 Florida State has had a very tough week as the chairman of the board of trustees essentially said he wants Bowden out by season’s end.
Georgia Tech, a somewhat up-and-down team this year but up significantly the last two weeks, would look like a spectacular choice as a 2.5 underdog in an ordinary week. But, can’t you just see the Seminole players performing out of their minds for a beloved coach? If Georgia Tech can use its dynamic running game to get ahead by a couple of touchdowns, an emotional Florida State might collapse. Who can tell about the Seminoles who were bad enough nearly to be beaten by Jacksonville State and good enough to go all the way to Utah to smash undefeated Brigham Young?
Both games ought to be fascinating, but simply too tough to call.
So, here is what I think is safer to choose:
Saturday (Noon EDT): Purdue (-3.5) at MINNESOTA
Even though the Golden Gophers are 1-2 in their new on-campus home, they have played pretty well. On the horizon is a pair of road trips to Penn State and Ohio State and a visit from rebounding Michigan State. Minnesota simply has to win this game, right now. Fading Purdue was bitten in tough losses to Oregon and Notre Dame and currently is suffering a four-game slide. It could get worse. Pick: Minnesota -3.5
Saturday (12:20 pm EDT): Georgia (Even) at TENNESSEE
A month ago I thought Tennessee might beat UCLA—the Vols lost—and lose to Florida—the Vols lost but played tough—and if the Vols could earn a split in back-to-back home games against Auburn and Georgia, Tennessee had a chance at winning eight games. The Vols lost to Auburn last week, so this is an important contest. And despite all the bombast, coach Lane Kiffin has done a decent job with a team that lost seven games last year. That said I can’t get over that Georgia, a mild disappointment, still is playing better than Tennessee, and Vols QB Jonathan Crompton is having a terrible year. Pick: Georgia Even
Saturday (12:30 pm EDT): Houston (+1) at MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Maroon Bulldogs are improving, but Houston, a passing powerhouse behind quarterback Case Keenum, ought to be able to outscore Mississippi State. Still, Houston’s run defense got gored last week at Texas-El Paso and will have to shore up against the nation’s 16th-leading rushing offense of the Bulldogs. Pick: Houston +1
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Navy (-11.5) at RICE
Winless Rice might have lost more irreplaceable players off last year’s squad than any team in the nation: QB Chase Clement, the Owls’ all-time passing yardage leader, WR Jarrett Dillard, Rice’s all-time leading pass receiver, and TE James Casey, Rice’s fourth all-time leader in receiving yards who caught 111 passes for 1,329 yards in 2008. This year’s Owls have lost by an average margin of 23.6 points in five defeats. This is no time to welcome Navy’s well-drilled ball-control offense, 6th-best in the nation. Pick: Navy -11.5
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 10-13
All Games listed in Danny Sheridan’s “Today’s Lines” column
Last Week ATS: Favorites covered 20, failed to cover 28, one “Push” (tie), one Even
Season ATS: Favorites covered 101, failed to cover 126
Gotta know when to hold ‘em
Picking games against the point-spread is plenty difficult and even worse when bookies handle your action, legally or illegally. Truth is, bookies keep all your losses and 10 percent of your winnings—known as “Viggerish”—and the “Vig” keeps the professionals prospering in a dandy business. Best to pick games ATS just for fun.
In addition to picking winners, there is an additional challenge: Knowing what games to stay away from. That is, “knowing when to hold ‘em,” as the old Kenny Rogers song went.
There are two truly fascinating contests this Saturday because of events leading up to the games. Those would be Florida at LSU and Georgia Tech at Florida State. I’m telling you: “Stay away!”
The playing status of former Heisman-winning Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is questionable due to the concussion he suffered two weeks ago. It would seem Tebow will be held out against LSU, but even if he plays one wonders how effective he can be, given his wonderful slam-bang style. That’s a strike against the top-ranked Gators, a 7.5 favorite on the road at Tiger Stadium against no. 4 LSU. On the other hand, Florida’s outstanding defense, inspired so often by Tebow in the past, might just rise up to muzzle the Tigers’ still-developing offense.
Then there is undefeated LSU, a tremendous home team with its own outstanding defense. Computer whiz Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings, found every Tuesday in USA TODAY, give the Tigers a 10.05 advantage over Florida, one of the largest edges this weekend. Usually a 6-point advantage in Sagarin numbers is significant enough to earn serious consideration for the higher rated team.
Over in Tallahassee, veteran coach Bobby Bowden of 2-3 Florida State has had a very tough week as the chairman of the board of trustees essentially said he wants Bowden out by season’s end.
Georgia Tech, a somewhat up-and-down team this year but up significantly the last two weeks, would look like a spectacular choice as a 2.5 underdog in an ordinary week. But, can’t you just see the Seminole players performing out of their minds for a beloved coach? If Georgia Tech can use its dynamic running game to get ahead by a couple of touchdowns, an emotional Florida State might collapse. Who can tell about the Seminoles who were bad enough nearly to be beaten by Jacksonville State and good enough to go all the way to Utah to smash undefeated Brigham Young?
Both games ought to be fascinating, but simply too tough to call.
So, here is what I think is safer to choose:
Saturday (Noon EDT): Purdue (-3.5) at MINNESOTA
Even though the Golden Gophers are 1-2 in their new on-campus home, they have played pretty well. On the horizon is a pair of road trips to Penn State and Ohio State and a visit from rebounding Michigan State. Minnesota simply has to win this game, right now. Fading Purdue was bitten in tough losses to Oregon and Notre Dame and currently is suffering a four-game slide. It could get worse. Pick: Minnesota -3.5
Saturday (12:20 pm EDT): Georgia (Even) at TENNESSEE
A month ago I thought Tennessee might beat UCLA—the Vols lost—and lose to Florida—the Vols lost but played tough—and if the Vols could earn a split in back-to-back home games against Auburn and Georgia, Tennessee had a chance at winning eight games. The Vols lost to Auburn last week, so this is an important contest. And despite all the bombast, coach Lane Kiffin has done a decent job with a team that lost seven games last year. That said I can’t get over that Georgia, a mild disappointment, still is playing better than Tennessee, and Vols QB Jonathan Crompton is having a terrible year. Pick: Georgia Even
Saturday (12:30 pm EDT): Houston (+1) at MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Maroon Bulldogs are improving, but Houston, a passing powerhouse behind quarterback Case Keenum, ought to be able to outscore Mississippi State. Still, Houston’s run defense got gored last week at Texas-El Paso and will have to shore up against the nation’s 16th-leading rushing offense of the Bulldogs. Pick: Houston +1
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Navy (-11.5) at RICE
Winless Rice might have lost more irreplaceable players off last year’s squad than any team in the nation: QB Chase Clement, the Owls’ all-time passing yardage leader, WR Jarrett Dillard, Rice’s all-time leading pass receiver, and TE James Casey, Rice’s fourth all-time leader in receiving yards who caught 111 passes for 1,329 yards in 2008. This year’s Owls have lost by an average margin of 23.6 points in five defeats. This is no time to welcome Navy’s well-drilled ball-control offense, 6th-best in the nation. Pick: Navy -11.5
Paul’s Picks for Oct. 10, 2009:
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 13-9
Put up or shut up
We are at the point in any college football season when teams that have produced startling early season won-loss records have to prove that they are legitimate conference title challengers. Teams like undefeated Auburn, for example, need to translate their successful start to the season into long-term prosperity as the pressure increases.
Wisconsin is one such team that has had recent struggles as the trees around Camp Randall begin to turn color. Last year the Badgers failed to capitalize on a 3-0 start by dropping their first four Big Ten games. Two years ago Wisconsin opened the season with five straight victories to move all the way up to no. 5 in the country before dropping out of the rankings entirely with two straight losses. Can they reverse this recent trend by returning home from Columbus with an upset victory?
What’s beautiful about betting/making predictions for fun is that it almost does not matter. If the Badgers play hard but lose by 10 points, they will drop to 5-1 for the season and remain unranked. But, those fans picking Wisconsin will get the W as the Badgers are 16-point underdogs. I love those talented dogs.
Here are my picks for the week with the focus on finding value from games with point spreads that are a bit off.
Saturday (Noon EDT): Boston College (+13) at VIRGINIA TECH
For the past two seasons Boston College has beaten Virginia Tech in the regular season before losing to them in a rematch in the ACC title game. Many college football fans around the country have viewed this as a case of BC getting lucky in mid-season before the talent of the Hokies shone through with a BCS berth on the line. Phooey I say as the Eagles have built a program featuring tough, hard-nose players who give full effort no matter where they play. Add in the boost to the O given by 25-year-old QB Dave Shinskie the past two games (31-51/439y, 5 TDs, INT vs Wake and FSU) and the Eagles play the Hokies tight. Pick: Boston College +13.
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Indiana (+6) at VIRGINIA
Both FBS teams from the Commonwealth State are home this weekend and both are favored by too many points. The season for the Cavs was spiraling out of control before the squad righted the ship with a big win at UNC. Now they go home where they have lost four straight games over the past two seasons to find an improved Hoosiers squad. Indiana has already beaten Akron on the road and narrowly lost to Michigan away from home. Happy that they do not see Buckeye defenders staring their way, the Hoosiers O will bounce back. They can easily win this game, which is a factor when picking underdogs. Pick: Indiana +6
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Wisconsin (+16) at OHIO STATE
Wisconsin has enough on D to play with Ohio State’s middling O. The question for the Badgers is whether their mix of veterans and impressive new starters on O can penetrate the excellent Buckeyes D. Big RB John Clay is a load against any front seven and veteran targets like TE Garrett Graham and WR Nick Toon will make things easier for QB Scott Tolzien as Wisconsin hangs tough. After winning three of four games in this series earlier this decade, the Badgers have lost consecutive games to the Buckeyes. But again, they do not have to win this one to prove the spread too large. Pick: Wisconsin +16
Saturday (10:00 pm EDT): Arizona (-3) at WASHINGTON
Well Arizona, this is it. Do you want to improve on last year’s solid, but little known, 8-5 record? Do you want to contend for the Pac 10 title? Get ranked? Play in January? Well, do not blow this game. With a week to prepare, the Wildcats return to the Pacific Northwest for the second time this season with the goal of a second Pac 10 road win. Soph QB Nick Foles has been very impressive and stud RB Nic Grigsby returns from injury to face a Husky D that is not very good against the run. Washington does have the outstanding QB-RB pairing of Jake Locker and Chris Polk and the same happy home environment that helped produce the USC shocker, but an emotional letdown after the close loss to Notre Dame while Arizona was resting will lead to a double figure loss to the underrated Wildcats. Pick: Arizona -3.
Last Week’s Picks Against-the-Spread (ATS): 3-1, Season: 13-9
Put up or shut up
We are at the point in any college football season when teams that have produced startling early season won-loss records have to prove that they are legitimate conference title challengers. Teams like undefeated Auburn, for example, need to translate their successful start to the season into long-term prosperity as the pressure increases.
Wisconsin is one such team that has had recent struggles as the trees around Camp Randall begin to turn color. Last year the Badgers failed to capitalize on a 3-0 start by dropping their first four Big Ten games. Two years ago Wisconsin opened the season with five straight victories to move all the way up to no. 5 in the country before dropping out of the rankings entirely with two straight losses. Can they reverse this recent trend by returning home from Columbus with an upset victory?
What’s beautiful about betting/making predictions for fun is that it almost does not matter. If the Badgers play hard but lose by 10 points, they will drop to 5-1 for the season and remain unranked. But, those fans picking Wisconsin will get the W as the Badgers are 16-point underdogs. I love those talented dogs.
Here are my picks for the week with the focus on finding value from games with point spreads that are a bit off.
Saturday (Noon EDT): Boston College (+13) at VIRGINIA TECH
For the past two seasons Boston College has beaten Virginia Tech in the regular season before losing to them in a rematch in the ACC title game. Many college football fans around the country have viewed this as a case of BC getting lucky in mid-season before the talent of the Hokies shone through with a BCS berth on the line. Phooey I say as the Eagles have built a program featuring tough, hard-nose players who give full effort no matter where they play. Add in the boost to the O given by 25-year-old QB Dave Shinskie the past two games (31-51/439y, 5 TDs, INT vs Wake and FSU) and the Eagles play the Hokies tight. Pick: Boston College +13.
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Indiana (+6) at VIRGINIA
Both FBS teams from the Commonwealth State are home this weekend and both are favored by too many points. The season for the Cavs was spiraling out of control before the squad righted the ship with a big win at UNC. Now they go home where they have lost four straight games over the past two seasons to find an improved Hoosiers squad. Indiana has already beaten Akron on the road and narrowly lost to Michigan away from home. Happy that they do not see Buckeye defenders staring their way, the Hoosiers O will bounce back. They can easily win this game, which is a factor when picking underdogs. Pick: Indiana +6
Saturday (3:30 pm EDT): Wisconsin (+16) at OHIO STATE
Wisconsin has enough on D to play with Ohio State’s middling O. The question for the Badgers is whether their mix of veterans and impressive new starters on O can penetrate the excellent Buckeyes D. Big RB John Clay is a load against any front seven and veteran targets like TE Garrett Graham and WR Nick Toon will make things easier for QB Scott Tolzien as Wisconsin hangs tough. After winning three of four games in this series earlier this decade, the Badgers have lost consecutive games to the Buckeyes. But again, they do not have to win this one to prove the spread too large. Pick: Wisconsin +16
Saturday (10:00 pm EDT): Arizona (-3) at WASHINGTON
Well Arizona, this is it. Do you want to improve on last year’s solid, but little known, 8-5 record? Do you want to contend for the Pac 10 title? Get ranked? Play in January? Well, do not blow this game. With a week to prepare, the Wildcats return to the Pacific Northwest for the second time this season with the goal of a second Pac 10 road win. Soph QB Nick Foles has been very impressive and stud RB Nic Grigsby returns from injury to face a Husky D that is not very good against the run. Washington does have the outstanding QB-RB pairing of Jake Locker and Chris Polk and the same happy home environment that helped produce the USC shocker, but an emotional letdown after the close loss to Notre Dame while Arizona was resting will lead to a double figure loss to the underrated Wildcats. Pick: Arizona -3.
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