Paul's Picks

With consecutive 3-1 weeks, I am on a roll and now 10-9 on the season. So pay attention for once. My picks for the first weekend of October--using the Friday lines from USA Today--are as follows:
Friday
BYU (-4.5) at UTAH STATE: The Cougars season has unraveled after an opening win over Washington as the banged up squad has lost three straight, all by two TDs or more. But those defeats were to Florida State, Air Force and Nevada, all of whom are much better than Utah State. BYU has won 10 straight in the series and needs to right its ship now with San Diego State and TCU up next on the schedule. Utah State QB Diondre Borel is talented, but its defense is beleaguered. Pick: BYU -4.5
Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Texas: The Longhorns are going to bounce back from their stunning loss to UCLA last week and play a spirited game. But they do not have any weapons on offense and will struggle to score. The Sooners offense features two game-breakers in back DeMarco Murray and receiver Ryan Broyles and they should be able to trade a few TDs for UT FGs. Oklahoma has lost four of the past five in this series and are pissed off about the last two that they could have easily won. While I hate that extra half point, I do see a 10-point win for OU. Pick: Oklahoma -3.5
Michigan (-10.5) at INDIANA: One of these weeks I will have to stop picking against Michigan. But this spread is silly as IU is angry after last season's controversial loss and has a passing attack featuring QB Ben Chappell and a veteran receiving corps that should blitz through the weak Michigan secondary. Don't get me wrong--I do not see the Hoosiers defense stopping Michigan and QB Denard Robinson either. But in a shootout I will gladly take a home dog of double digits (and the over too). Pick: Indiana +10.5
Navy at AIR FORCE (-10): The home team is definitely due to win in this heated series after losing seven straight. But by 10? With the way Navy has dominated its service academy brethren--last losing to either Army or Air Force in 2002--the Falcons will be happy with any kind of victory. The Midshipmen will play with the confidence that elevates winners. Look for OT for the second straight time in this series or a last-sec winning FG in regulation. Pick: Navy +10.
Florida at ALABAMA (-8): Is it me or is Alabama a bit overrated? Part of the problem for me is that I tend to see their mediocre performances more often than their great ones. In their last 12 games I did not see them blowout Mississippi State and Chattanooga last season nor San Jose State and Duke this season. And they definitely looked great against Florida in the 2009 SEC title game and in the first half against Texas in the BCS championship contest. But I did see them struggle against South Carolina, Tennessee and Auburn last year and Arkansas last week. They are good, and I would vote them no. 1, but for long stretches of games against top competition they go into funks where they do not look very good (see 2nd half versus Texas). This will be important against a Florida squad that enters the game with supreme motivation. They know that the Tide has surpassed them as the best team in the country and they also know that Alabama beat them up last year. Hell, their performance almost killed their coach (well, they think so anyway). As much as I dislike Urban Meyer I respect his coaching acumen and know he will pull out all the stops in this game. The Tide win a close one. Pick: Florida +8.