Trust Your Eyes

Quick, who leads the nation in the all-important yards-per-carry stat? He is from a major football power. Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson? That would be a good guess. But it would be wrong. LaMichael James of Oregon? Nope. The leader at the moment is none other than Pittsburgh back Ray Graham, who must be benefiting from defenses looking for teammate Dion Lewis. By the time they realize Graham has the ball he has run the 9.46y he is averaging. Robinson is not even the leader among QBs as his 9.23 ypc trails Nebraska's Taylor Martinez (9.36). That Martinez is beating Robinson is both a testament to his talent and a reminder that college stats are for the birds. Martinez ran roughshod over Western Kentucky and Idaho, programs that were ill equipped to catch him. Tune in Thursday night to see what he does against the moderately talented KSU Wildcats. The lofty numbers of all of these players will begin to fall as defenses tailor their game plans to what the coaches see on film. And players who rely on speed--like Graham, Martinez, Robinson and James (8.0 ypc)--will slow down as the season progresses due to both colder weather and wear and tear.

Team stats, especially this early in the season, are for the birds too. It is funny hearing experts trumping a particular school's rush defense based on their current rankings despite the fact that said defense has not played any good run teams. Or that team has led throughout most of their games, forcing their opponents to throw more. When it is this early in the season you must trust your eyes more than numbers. Michigan's pass defense came into the season undermanned. They were then exploited by Notre Dame and others. So when Indiana QB Ben Chappell tore them to shreds this weekend--he completed 45 of 64 attempts for 480 yards--it should not have come as a complete surprise even though no quarterback had come within 200y of Chappell's total in the four games Michigan played prior to meeting IU. But there were extenuating circumstances helping the Wolverines stats in their first four games. UConn is set up to be a run first team, Notre Dame's QB Dayne Crist missed half of the game to injury (and still threw for 277y), UMass is a FCS team with a balanced attack and the starting QB for Bowling Green missed the Michigan game with an injury. Heisman voters need to take the Michigan secondary into account if Terrelle Pryor has a similar day for Ohio State on November 27.

And we all have to take into account misleading statistics when touting teams and players.