Paul's Picks

October 9, 2010 Picks
Boy do I like a lot of games this week, which is a bit daunting. The fear is that I will pick five games for you here and go 2-3, while hitting the others I do not select for your reading pleasure. I went 3-2 last week and am now 13-11 on the season. Mediocre? Sure, but I have had to overcome a dreadful start.
Here are the picks, all road teams, based on Danny Sheridan's odds as found Thursday at usatoday.com:
(Friday) Connecticut (-5.5) at RUTGERS
October 8th is my brother's birthday and he graduated many years ago from Rutgers. That said, I am taking Connecticut to win big. Rutgers does not have much of an offensive line and the Huskies have a very good front seven. While Rutgers' beleaguered offense will continue to struggle, their very game defense will eventually break under the pressure of carrying the offense. Pick: Connecticut -5.5
Michigan State at MICHIGAN (-4.5)
While it seems like I am picking on the Wolverines, they have not impressed me. Sure Denard Robinson is exciting, but the Spartans have enough tape to watch to devise a way to contain him. They will not stop him, mind you, but keep him from running wild. Meanwhile QB Kirk Cousins will enjoy throwing against the woeful Michigan secondary. Look for the visitors to not only cover but win their third straight in the series. Pick: Michigan State +4.5
Alabama (-6.5) at SOUTH CAROLINA
Yes that half point is luring me in like a sailor to a singing siren. What impresses me the most about Alabama is that they stick to what they do well no matter the opponent or score. With Arkansas beating them after three quarters and then Florida outgaining them last week, the Tide continued to hammer their way to consecutive SEC wins. They cannot let down this week against the Gamecocks, but unless QB Stephen Garcia plays like the Ryan Mallett of the 1st half of the Arkansas game or the Gamecocks defense plays like the Gators defense in the 2nd half of the Florida game, South Carolina is in trouble. Pick: Alabama -6.5
Oregon (-36) at WASHINGTON STATE
Bob and i normally avoid games like this for the blog, but they are available for wagering and this one does matter for polls and the like. By beating Stanford last week the Ducks bypassed Boise State for third place in the polls. They want more. With Ohio State banged up and suddenly vulnerable (not so much to lose but to fall behind Oregon), Oregon can sway voters with another monster effort on offense. Playing a program that they have scored at least 52 points in each of the last three meetings will allow them to improve on their 56 pts-per-game average. They will cover by the half against a Cougars squad that cannot put up a fight.
Rice at UTEP (-9)
When Rice has been good of late they have beaten UTEP and when Rice has been bad, like last year, they beat UTEP. And while the 1-4 Owls have played a tough schedule--losing to Texas, Northwestern, Baylor and SMU--the 4-1 Miners have enjoyed playing both New Mexico and New Mexico State. Despite the records these teams are even. Pick: Rice +9.